Eurovision Bets &amp; Pieces

Wednesday, 12 March 2025

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Slovenia

How much time we do have left - Klemen

Enough time has passed since Klemen was selected to represent Slovenia and this entry is still going under the radar regarding its qualification odds.

The main reason is that this is a song that has zero appeal on fans but could work very well with the casuals that will be watching the Semi - Final.

'How much time we do have left' is only one of the two slow-tempo entries that exist in Semi - Final 1, both performing in the first half and Slovenia does have a better luck compared to Portugal. The song is based on Klemen's personal story and there will be people that will relate with it.

The staging in the National Final was Eurovision ready and had enough to grab the viewers' attention. Klemen is a very strong vocalist and there is a simple but very effective melody that renders the whole package appealing. There is a chance that Slovenia might be lost performing in the same half with the likes of Estonia, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, however there are 4 entries in this Semi - Final that in my opinion have little or no chance to qualify and Slovenia does have enough to secure a spot in the Final.

It does remind me of Latvia last year that had a similar entry, jury oriented, that was considered borderline/ certain non qualifier the day of the Semi - Final but qualified easily because of its quality.

I will jump the gun and state that Slovenia will qualify finishing 7th-9th in the Semi - Final.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Slovenia qualifying easier than expected to the Final and there achieve a respectable mid-table (12th-18th) result boosted by the Juries and neighbours.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 37.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-75

F: J: 40-125 - PV: 30-50 - Tot: 70-175

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Slovenia the shocker qualifier from Semi - Final 1?

You can hear my thoughts about Slovenia in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at

Call it perfect timing, I call it divine

Tuesday, 11 March 2025

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Poland

Gaia - Justyna Steczkowska

Poland's national final for Eurovision 2025 is another classic example of how the mistakes of last year's selection process can derail the next edition.

I do believe that Poland had two better options than 'Gaia' (Lusterka, Hold the Light) but the 'cooking; of last year's selection forced the Polish broadcaster to opt for 100% Public vote result and Justyna was playing in home turf.

I believe that her entry last year was better and this should have been the ideal come back in Eurovision for her after 30! years.

'Gaia' is an powerful ethnic-pop entry that highlights Justyna's vocal and dancing abilities. I find it a bit aggressive but it should be fine in a 100% Public vote Semi - Final. Poland's target group will be its diaspora and it remains to be seen if the diaspora will back her beloved artist and boost her to achieve a middle table result in the Final.

A Top-10 result in the Public vote is within reach (Blanca was 8th in '23) and I would not be surprised if Justyna received a 100+ points score.

Poland is historically struggling with the Juries and I expect a similar result this year as well that could hurt Justyna's slim chance to finish in Top-10 overall. If they receive more than 30-35 points in Jury vote, things could get interesting when the Public vote points are revealed.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Overall, I think that Poland will secure the qualification and then, relying on diaspora, will secure a mid-table result (12th-19th).

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 29.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 5-25 - PV: 60-120 - Tot: 65-145

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Poland be a contender for a Top-10 result? Will the Polish diaspora back Justyna?

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple podcasts Spotify

Saturday, 8 March 2025

Eurovision 2026 Guide - The links for all the articles/analyses/podcast episodes of the season plus a blast from the past

To help you navigate through the ocean of articles, reviews, and analyses for the Eurovision 2026 season, I have created this guide that will include the links to all my posts that will be updated throughout the season. Click on the country's name or title of the post to open the links.

You will find my Early Thoughts section for each country, split in Semi - Finals 1/2 plus the automatic qualifiers, followed by the articles that contain data/statistical analyses and resolutions.

In the last part you will be able to find the links for the episodes of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard, @Panos_Zannettos and myself with a summary of the content for each episode plus a few selected articles with my projections-tips from the previous years. Enjoy!

Eurovision 2026

The Return of the Balkans

Bring It!

MyResolution for Eurovision 2026

Know Your Numbers 2026 Edition - Part 2

Grand Final Projection and Power Rankings Pre-Rehearsals

Know Your Numbers 2026 Edition - Part 1

Semi Final 2 Projection and Power Rankings

Semi Final 1 Projection and Power Rankings

In Search Of Eurovision Transcendence

The Inner Circle

Semi Final 1

Montenegro 21.5/50

Talk About Things/ESC Season 3 Episodes

3.07 The Grand Final Pre-Rehearsals Jury Prediction

Spotify

3.06: The Grand Final Pre-Rehearsals Public vote Prediction

Spotify

3.05: Regarde to Our Contenders!

Spotify

3.04: The Belarussian Mistake (Talking about the running order of the Semi Finals)

Spotify

3.01: Saluti a tutti, the podcast is on duty! (Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, Malta, Luxembourg)

3.02: The Ferto Wold and the Jalla Lion! (Ukraine, Cyprus, Estonia, Denmark, Latvia, Croatia, Greece)

3.03: Partial Eclipse of the Flamethrower (Bulgaria, Finland, Italy, Australia, UK, Israel, France)

Semi - Final 1 Power Rankings

Analysis / Data

The Elephant in the Room

It's the Juries, stupid!

The French Connection

Semi - Final 2 Power Rankings

Talk About all Things podcast Prediction project (Jury vote)

Talk About all Things podcast Prediction Project (Public vote)

Semi Final 1 - Preview/Tips

Semi Final 2 - Preview/Tips

Know Your Numbers '25 Edition

Bonsoir Europe

Talk About Things/ESC Season 2 Episodes

2.01: Montenegro - Albania

2.02: Luxembourg - Greece - Slovenia - Belgium - Spain

2.03: Ireland - Finland - Ukraine - Latvia - Malta

2.04: Poland - Estonia - Norway - Lithuania - Armenia

2.05: Azerbaijan - Iceland - Australia - Netherlands - Serbia - Denmark - Germany

Croatia - Italy - Melfest

2.06: Austria - Czechia - UK - Sweden - San Marino - Portugal - Israel - Switzerland - Cyprus - Georgia - France

2.07: The one about the Running Order of the Semi - Finals. The winners, the losers and the hints from producers

2.08: The one about the Winner's Market. The contenders, the wannabe contenders and the faux/non-contenders

2.09: The one about the LondonEurovisionParty and some comments about the Semi-Finals' Q/Nq and other markets

2.10: The Q & A one! You asked and we answered!

2.11: The Talk About Things Prediction Project: A panel of 16 Eurovision analysts and experts predicts the Top-10 in Jury and Public vote

Semi - Final 1

Estonia 27/50

Belgium 28.5/50

Poland 29.5/50

Slovenia 37.5/50

Albania 42/50

Ukraine 28/50

Iceland 20.5/50

San Marino 17.5/50

Portugal 27/50

Sweden 43.5/50

Netherlands 43.5/50

Azerbaijan 34.5/50

Cyprus 37.5/50

Norway 24/50

Croatia 17/50

Semi - Final 2

Montenegro 26.5/50

Greece 29/50

Finland 38/50

Luxembourg 37/50

Malta 26.5/50

Ireland 21.5/50

Denmark 33/50

Lithuania 39.5/50

Austria 37/50

Serbia 37/50

Australia 37/50

Armenia 20.5/50

Latvia 26/50

Czechia 31.5/50

Israel 35/50

Final

Italy 41.5/50

Spain 19/50

UK 25/50

Germany 36.5/50

Switzerland 35.5/50

France 44.5/50

Blast from the past

2024

There's No Going Back

Finding Nemo...

Crown Rim Tim Tagi Dim

Breaking the Winner's Code

My Betting Resolution for 2024

Know Your Numbers 2024 edition

2023

The Swedish Way

Diamond in the rough

The clash of the Nordics

Eurovision 2023 Betting Book

You Will Never Walk Alone

2022

Stefania...

Down to the river

The Tipping point?

Eurovision 2022 Betting book

Eurovision 2022 Betting resolution

The year that will live in infamy

The dark horses market

2021

Buonasera signore e signori

The Dark Arts of Running order

The one that...

We Got Game

Winner's market first thoughts

Winner's market the rest of the field

2019

Friday, 7 March 2025

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Italy

Voglio Essere un Duro - Lucio Corsi

San Remo '25 was not the stronger edition of the last few years, but still had enough depth to provide a number of entries that could finish in Top-10 in Eurovision.

Lucio Corsi was the pleasant surprise of the '25 edition coming out of nowhere to contend for the San Remo trophy. He finished second but Olly's rejection to represent Italy in Eurovision made Lucio's dream come true and become the Italian representative.

'Voglio Essere un Duro' is a beautiful piano ballad that could have been in the soundtrack of an indie film. A feelgood song with some beautiful lyrics that Italy should find a way to project them in different languages like they did back in '18 and finished Top-3 with the public vote. Less is better is the motto of the staging and this could work in a year where most countries are throwing the kitchen sink in the staging and structure of their songs.

Lucio Corsi is a very talented artist that can win the crowd with his warm personality. He is the definition of the guy from next door. Italy does tick the jury boxes and has the potential to finish in the Top-5 with them, possibly a bit higher, and also secure a three digit score with the public vote that could be enough to propel them in the Top-5/6. Corsi overperformed in San Remo with the public beating the established names and surprised many people. The field in Eurovision is more stacked and there are more televote magnets that are basically non-existent in San Remo.

Italy has a great record of doing better than expected when it is not considered a favourite or an underdog. They did it back in '11 when they finished 2nd after winning the Juries when the majority expected them to finish outside the Top-10. They have done the same thing in '18, finishing 5th with a Top-3 public vote result and Mengoni in '23 was the most recent case, again projected to finish outside or near the Top-10 and he finished 4th.

I do think that Italy's floor is 7th/8th and they have all the ingredients to work their way to Top-4/5 which will be a great result for them. Just a reminder that Italy has not finished lower than 7th since 2017 and no male Italian artist finished lower than 7th since their return to the Contest in 2011!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Italy overperforming as usual when it is considered an underdog and finish in Top-5 doing well with both constituencies but a bit better with the Juries. If the perfect storm hits, Italy could become a serious dark horse.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 41.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1%-3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

Not in Top-10

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 150-250 - PV: 100-175 - Tot: 250-425

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think that Italy is an underestimated dark horse or just a Top-10 contender?

You can hear my thoughts about Italy in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Thursday, 27 February 2025

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Belgium

Strobe Lights - Red Sebastian

Once upon a time (4-5 weeks ago) Belgium was leading the odds to win Eurovision!

Red Sebastian had an easy task winning Eurosong 25 but competition will be tougher in May.

Belgium will be performing in Semi - Final 1 and the line-up that is shaping up implies that Belgium will have an arduous job to qualify first and then achieve a good result.

'Strobe Lights' is a good 90's techno inspired track that focuses on Red Sebastian's vocal abilities. The staging in Eurosong 25 was ok. My main objection is that there is not much of a song there and both constitutions can pick that up easily and ignore it.

There is a niche audience for this genre and there are better options in the Semi - Final and the whole line-up of the Contest, that could render 'Strobe Lights' irrelevant.

And this is where lies the other problem. Belgium, with the exception of Netherlands, does not have any strong allies in this Semi and could struggle getting high scores to reach the 45-50 points threshold that could secure qualification. It is the definition of a borderline entry that could go both ways. It is still sitting on my qualifiers list but that could change in a few weeks time.

If Red Sebastian qualifies to the Final, he does stand a chance to get some Jury love, mid-table to crack the Top-10, but would really need to grapple for some public vote points with all the packages that are on offer.

And do not forget that Belgium has a long history of being overhyped/overestimated both by the fans and the bookies

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Belgium struggling to qualify to the Final and then get snubbed by both constituencies finishing 15th-22nd.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-60

F: J: 30-50 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 50-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Belgium has the potential to stand out in the Final? Is it a certain qualifier?

You can hear my thoughts about Belgium in the 2nd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple podcasts