Finland once again has treated us with a national final of great quality and high standards!
Erika won by a landslide, as expected when the breakdown of the voting is 70% PV and 30% Juries.
'Ich Komme' is a continuation of Finland's quest to win Eurovision through the Public Vote scoreboard. The staging of the UMK was stunning with three minutes full of sexual tension and climax.
Erika is a very competent and full of charisma artist and lifts the song with her personality and stage show. I reckon that this is Eurovision ready and could do really well in Basel. Knowing already half of the songs and having listened to a few more countries that have not decided yet, Finland is the country that has the most PV potential. This is a great starting point for them and could boost their chances for a great result in May.
If the goal is to finish in Top-5, Finland has a chance to be in the mix. My biggest concern is their jury appeal. 'Cha cha cha' received 150 jury points mostly because it was considered a favourite and some jurors did not want to shut down Kaarija's path to victory.
I am not going to state that 'Ich komme' is 'Cha cha cha 2.0' but it does not carry the same weight nevertheless. The staging is full of sexual references that will not go well with the majority of the jurors and I struggle to see a path for a three digit score with them. And this is the reason that any discussion about Finland winning Eurovision is more of wishful thinking than a realistic scenario.
Last year I mentioned in my posts and in the podcast that having this type of entries in the line-up will make jurors more open and receptive, awarding the artistry and show that the televote magnets offer and render these entries more credible. Croatia '24 finished 3rd scoring 200+ points with them and Ireland finished 6th over the jury friendly entries from Portugal and Sweden.
However, the jury-oriented entries managed to get a wider support from the public vote, that helped widen the gap between the jury and public vote favourites. France and Switzerland finished 4th and 5th in the Public Vote respectively, both scoring 220+ points and both received points from all countries! And this is where Finland's path to be a Public Vote Top-3 gets tricky.
Add to that the X-factor of Israel's public vote score and Finland could end up finishing anywhere between 6th - 10th which is where I think it will end up in the end.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Finland finishing 2nd in the Semi - Final, getting a decent running order for the Final and finishing 7th with a J: 50-80 pts - PV: 150-200 split.
Televoting Potential: 9/10
Jury Potential: 4/10
Staging Potential: 9/10
Momentum: 8/10
My Opinion: 8/10
Total: 38/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
1% - 3%
Best case scenario:
Top-4
Worst case scenario:
Right-hand side result in the Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 160-200
F: J: 50-80 - PV: 150-200 - Tot: 200-280
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Finland has enough to win Eurovision?
You can hear my thoughts about Finland in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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