Eurovision 2023 Betting Book and my betting resolution for this year (14.05)

 Let's talk about bets baby...

And now the time that most of you were waiting for. The betting/tipping side of my blog.

I have already posted my thoughts about what went right and wrong last year here.

This season I have tried a different approach regarding my personal book. The main different is that I have placed a small number of bets so far and have decided to place the vast majority of my bets after I have a picture from rehearsals and the shows. 

The good news is that I will be able to watch the rehearsals and the jury shows so I will have a better picture of how the things shape up.

The other diversification for the year is the short price of Sweden in the winning market that I find repulsive to place a bet on.

Sweden is the grand favourite and the most probable winner by far, but my betting philosophy does not allow me to place a bet on them on such a short price. For that reason, the volume of my bets on the Winner market is much lower than in the past, mostly on countries that could perform well with Juries, and they offer a chance for a profitable trade, or countries that could have some potential with their staging and for the moment are long shots because of the unknown factor.

The positive aspect of my strategy is that I will not carry all the way to the Final a heavy weight of bets which potentially will be lost or have no value.

Every year I try to reduce the amount of the bets that I am tipping, most of the times with no luck, but this is the year that I will keep my promise and will keep things tight.

The Book 

I will not change the format that I have used last year which helped a bit. 

The Book will consist of 1000 units, 100 for each Semi - Final and 800 for the Final. The units from the settled bets from Semi - Final 1 can be used in Semi - Final 2 or the Final, the ones from Semi - Final 2 for the Final.

I will try not to spend more than the 100 already allocated for Semi - Final 2 and use the settled ones from SF1 straight to the Final unless there is a terrific opportunity.

The Book will be updated every time there is a new tip and I will be tweeting about it as well. Every bet will be followed either by a link with the thinking behind its selection or by a short analysis.

Last year there has been a debate whether I should be using the exchange's odds or the bookies' odds. The readers of my blog come from various parts of Europe and around the world so it would not be fair to use only the one or the other and it is also impossible for me to calculate my winnings or loses this way. 

I personally use both entities and tip bets that are available in both entities most of the times. I will be always using the odds that are available at the time I post my tips to settle this one. I know it is not fair for someone who does not have the exchange option on their country, but betting is always about finding the best value.

Semi - Final 1

Israel SF Top-3 @ 2.46 (Betfair) x 50 units

Netherlands Not to Qualify @ 1.91 (Bet365 -2.14 in Betfair) x 40 units

Moldova Not to Qualify @ 8.00 (Bet365 - 8.50 in Betfair) x 10 units

Units Invested: 100

Returned Units: 208.6 units

Semi - Final 2

Greece to Qualify @2.92 (Betfair) x 75 units

Armenia to Win the Semi - Final @ 6.80 (Betfair) x 25 units

Units Invested:100

Returned Units: 0

Final

Israel to Finish in Top-3 @ 3.15 (betfair exchange) x 600 units

Sweden to Win and Israel come Second @ 10.00 (betfair sportsbook) x 100 units

Israel to Win @ 60 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Switzerland to Finish Top-10 @ 5.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Spain to Finish Top-5 @ 3.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

and now the fun bets

Cyprus to Finish last @ 130 (betfair exchange) x 15.6 units

Israel to Win the Tele Vote @ 29 (betfair exchange) x 20 units

Invested Units: 885.6 Units

Returned Units: 1890 Units

Semi - Finals Total Investment: 200 Units

Semi - Finals Total Returns: 208.6 Units, 

ROI: +4.03%

Final Total Investment: 885.6 Units

Final Total Returns: 1890 Units

ROI: +113.4%

Eurovision 2023 Total Investment: 1085.6 Units

Eurovision 2023 Total Returns: 2098.6 Units

ROI: +93.3%

Semi - Finals Tips: 2/5, 40%

Final Tips: 1/7, 14.3%

Eurovision 2023 Total Tips: 3/12, 25%

Eurovision 2023: Semi - Final 2: Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 

If someone asked you to compare this year's Semi -Finals' quality with a football team, Semi - Final 1 would have been Manchester City/ Real Madrid, Semi - Final 2 would have been Sheriff Tiraspol/ Maccabi Haifa...

Odds wise, there is a possibility to have just a Top-10 entry from this Semi to the Final and that sums it up.

Even to that poor field however there are some clear favourites to proceed and a few entries that do not stand a chance.

Before starting the rankings, a reminder that you can find the post for Semi - Final 1 here and the post for the winning paths of the odds' leaders here. You can also click on each country's name for the first thoughts.

1. Armenia

What I think it will happen: Still flying under the radar, missing all pre-parties, and having just a few bits of information about the presentation. I am not sold in Austria, and I do think that Armenia has more staging potential. The early draw is a disadvantage as well, but I do think that Armenia is a locked Top-3 in Semi- Final and could bring a similar result to Russia '15, Australia '16, Belgium '17.

If I had to choose a country out of the current Top-5 that could end up there in the Final, Armenia is my pick easily. 

To win Semi @13 and be Top-3 in the Semi @ 1.81 both have some value, especially the second one compared to Austria's odds for the win.

Disclaimer: I do have Armenia already in my book in both markets, plus Winner/Top-4/Top-5/Top-10 in the Final

I would be shocked if: Does not finish in Top-3

2. Australia

What I think it will happen: Having the Pimp slot and an entry that could set the stage on fire. It is the typical Semi - Final 2 pimp slot entry that does finish in Top-3 and then used as an opener for the Final.

Australia does not have a great Televoting appeal in the Contest but has managed to win a Semi - Final twice ('16, '19) and finished second last year, based on its jury appeal though.

I struggle to find a way that 'Promise' finishes lower than Top-4. Another one that goes under the radar and let's not forget that Australia does have some jury appeal that could become handy in the Final.

I would be shocked if: Australia finishes 5th or worse.

3. Cyprus

What I think it will happen: Cyprus is expected to sail through to the Final and it has enough allies in the Semi - Final to do it being part of the Top-3. The entry that starts with a secured threshold of 35-40 points and could get many more. Not sure about its fate in the Final but this Semi is a different beast.

I would be shocked if: Cyprus is not in Top-6.

4. Slovenia

What I think it will happen: Another certain qualifier that depending on the circumstances could land anywhere between 2nd and 6th. Joker Out will also have the chance to win the crowd and secure their spot in the Final. 

Semi Final Top-3 @ 3.20 has value.

I would be shocked if: Slovenia does not qualify.

5. Austria

What I think it will happen: The favourite to win the Semi - Final and I have it 5th? Well...I do like the song in general but there are many red flags there to back it at such a short price, currently @ 1.63.

I am aware that there are no Juries in the Semi - Final but I do struggle to find a decent staging or choreography for this one and not sure how many viewers will relate to or understand the message of the song. 

I think that WTHIE will be the biggest victim of the video-clip effect for 2023 and will under-achieve spectacularly.

I was keeping an open mind for this one with the Eurojury results coming in in case I missed something but if the jurors are not impressed by its video-clip which is its selling point then they are heading for a car crash. 

Top-10 in the Final is not secured in my opinion.

I would be shocked if: Austria wins the Semi - Final.

6. Lithuania

What I think it will happen: I might have underestimated Lithuania at the beginning of the season. 'Stay' is cheesy and generic but there is some kind of serenity that the song brings, the running order and some friends will be enough to secure a place in the Final and there they will meet more friends and diaspora...

A fun bet for the Top-3 in Semi - Final @ 5 and for the Semi - Final Win @ 100 is acceptable.

I would be shocked if: Lithuania fails to qualify.

7. Belgium

What I think it will happen: Another grower during the national finals' season. Belgium is not my cup of tea, and I was harsh when I shared my first thoughts but even back then I have mentioned that the qualification is not out of question. 

Three months after and Belgium is heading to the Final and if you consider Eurojury as a reliable metric, Belgium could be an outsider for the Top-15.

I would be shocked if: Belgium wins the Semi - Final or finishes in Bottom-3.

8. Poland

What I think it will happen: The Top-7 has secured a spot in the Final and Poland is the first entry on my list that could end up the other way around.

Blanka is the guilty pleasure of this year, and it has the Polish diaspora behind it. This will be the key for its success. We need to see the staging to have a better idea, but Poland and Televoting diaspora is the perfect mix.

I would be shocked if: Poland finishes in Top-3.

9. Greece

What I think it will happen: Greece is the fourth entry after Cyprus, Poland and Lithuania that has a head start because of their allies and diaspora. Quality wise is the weakest Greek entry for a while but could still make it to the Final. Failing to qualify would not be a surprise.

I would be shocked if: Greece is placed in Top-5.

10. Georgia

What I think it will happen: Georgia is in trouble and the main reason is the absence of an actual song or its strange structure. It is made to highlight Iru's vocal abilities but there is nothing more than that.

An epic staging could hide some of its weaknesses but if they fail to create one, Georgia will continue the long streak of non-qualifications. 

Lay has the best value of all non-qualification odds in both Semis for 2023.

I would be shocked if: Georgia is near Top-5.

11. Estonia

What I think it will happen: Estonia's qualification will be a coin toss. Personally, I am leaning on the non-qualification side purely because, in every Semi - Final since 2014, there is at least one entry that is saved by Juries and Estonia is the one that fits that criterion. 

Without Juries might be the easy target and despite its quality it might fail to qualify. It will be easier in the Final if it gets there having the Jury boost.

I would be shocked if: Estonia finishes in Bottom-3.

12. Denmark

What I think it will happen: The last country in my list with a chance to qualify but the odds against them. The early slot and Denmark's bad record with similar vanilla songs in recent history suggest that qualifying might be out of reach. They will fight with Greece and Georgia for the last qualifying spot.

Lay @1.78 has value.

I would be shocked if: Denmark finishes higher than 9th.

13. Iceland

What I think it will happen: A generic repetitive song that lacks, at least in national final, any form of choreography that could help it and lift its status.

'Power' ironically is not powerful enough to find an audience that could vote massively for it and send it to the Final.

I would be shocked if: Iceland qualifies finsihing higher than 10th.

14. Albania

What I think it will happen: Albania is missing most of its allies and 'Duje' is not the type of entry that will force the Televoters to pick up the phone. Maybe it is time for Albania to try a different recipe.

I would be shocked if: Albania qualifies.

15. Romania

What I think it will happen: Could Romania do it again and qualify solely getting points from its diaspora? The answer is no.

Anything better than Bottom-3 will be tremendous success.

I would be shocked if: Romania qualifies.

16. San Marino

What I think it will happen: If there was a bet for last place in Semi - Finals, San Marino would have been money in the bank.

I would be shocked if: San Marino will not finish last.

And this is a wrap. I have 7 certain qualifiers: Armenia, Australia, Cyprus, Slovenia, Austria, Lithuania, and Belgium.

Poland, Greece, Georgia, Estonia, and Denmark will battle for the remaining 3 positions. 

Of course, rehearsals are on the way and many things could change but I highly doubt that there could be another country to join the battle and make it to the Final.

I will also post my book for the season in the next couple of days which I will be updating until the end of the Grand Final. 

For the following week, the plan is to post some stats for the Semi - Finals and then of course the coverage of the rehearsals and the jury shows here and in twitter.

Stay tunned...

Eurovision 2023: Semi - Final 1: Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 What's another year? Rehearsals will begin in a few days, and it is time for the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings. 

Last year I had 9/10 correct qualifiers for both Semi-Finals in my pre-rehearsals that turned to 8/10 and 7/10 when the time for the actual prediction came so you better bookmark these posts.

Semi - Final 1 is the shortest one since 2014 with just 15 participants and at the same time one of the fullest in terms of quality.

Three of the Top-4 favourites are performing here and if we believe the current odds, 4 or 5 entries will make it to the Top-10, with the other 4 coming from the direct qualifiers and 1 or 2 from Semi - Final 2.

There is a big chance that Finland will win the Semi-Final because of the 100% Televoting scoring system and then have a reverse in Grand Final with Sweden winning the Contest.

It has happened in the past, so we need to be open-minded. Clicking on each country's name, you will be able to read my first thoughts for each one.

So here we go...

1. Finland

What I think it will happen: Performing in the Pimp Slot will give a massive boost to Finland that is also the big favourite to win Televoting in the Final. The last Pimp Slot entry that won Televoting in a Semi - Final was 'Fuego' back in 2018 when 'Toy' finished just 4th! with the televoters but managed to win the contest. Maybe that is an omen for Sweden.

Finland's win is currently @1.59 which I find very short, but this is the hot favourite.

I would be shocked if: Finland does not finish in Top-2.

2. Sweden

What I think it will happen: Loreen is the one to beat and she will set the tone from the Semi - Final. For those thinking that Sweden just waits for Saturday 13th May to be coronated as Eurovision winner, the Semi - Final win @ 3.60 is the only Swedish odd this year that has an actual value. Cannot see a way Sweden will fail to be in the Top-2. If that happens - we will find out after the Grand Final - then winning the contest will be out of question.

I would be shocked if: Sweden is out of the Top-2.

3. Israel

What I think it will happen: One of the biggest X-factors so far for the year. The one though with the most potential. Noa Kirel has star quality and Israel does know how to stage a song. Winning the Semi - Final @ 70 has some excellent value, and the same goes for finishing in Top-3 @ 2.4.

It has a better running order than Norway (#9 has 4 podium finishes including 2 wins since 2014 while #1 has only 2 third places), no juries are involved, and the Nordics will have to split the high scores among themselves leaving someone short.

I would be shocked if: Israel does not deliver in staging and fails to finish in Top-4.

4. Norway

What I think it will happen: It is very possible for Norway to finish in the same position in the Final as well. Eurojury results so far imply that Norway could be a potential Top-5 with Juries and the same could happen with Televoting as well. Opening the Semi - Final might be tough in terms of getting a Top-3 and a good draw in the Final. Will fight with Israel and Czechia for the third spot though.

I would be shocked if: Norway fails to finish in Top-5.

5. Czechia

What I think it will happen: Czechia has lost the momentum it gained in early February, that now feels like ages ago. However, Vesna have improved a lot during the pre-parties and if the staging offers a part of the epicness of the video clip, then Czechia could be back in the Top-10 discussion. It will get some support from the Ukrainian diaspora/supporters as well, we still do not know in what extent.

I would be shocked if: Czechia does not qualify easily.

6. Croatia

What I think it will happen: Croatia is the biggest winner of the rule change. They have taken the right decision to go all-in or go home. They might struggle a bit and finish in a lower position but missing the Final is not a very probable scenario. There it will be a different story but for sure they will not leave the Contest unnoticed.

I would be shocked if: They fail to qualify placed 12th or worse.

7. Moldova

What I think it will happen: I must admit that I cannot read this entry so far. I am aware of its Televoting potential; however, I do find it extremely repetitive and very lazy. It gives me France '22 vibes and it is sandwiched between Israel and Sweden and could be completely forgotten when people start to vote. Had it as a borderline non qualifier but now in my Top-10 but I do find its qualifying odds @ 1.11 extremely short.

I would be shocked if: Moldova finishes in Top-3 or Bottom-3.

8. Serbia

What I think it will happen: We are officially entering in the grey area. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier, always near the very last qualifying spot. The tradition will continue this year as well. The entry has lots of potential and needs to be better than in the national final but even that might be enough.

I would be shocked if: Serbia could enter Top-2.

9. Portugal

What I think it will happen: Another entry that could go both ways. I have it among the qualifiers just because it does have a Televoting appeal. Will not be surprised though if it fails to qualify. One to watch in rehearsals not per se but to see if it sits down well with the entries next to it.

I would be shocked if: Portugal enters Top-5 or finishes in Bottom-3.

10. Switzerland

What I think it will happen:  A potential Top-5 with the Juries in Grand Final which might not make it there. Every Semi - Final since 2014 has at least one entry that was saved by the jurors and qualified to the Final. Switzerland might pay the price for the rule change, but I do think it has enough quality to make it and send Netherlands to the dark side. If Iceland made it last year, why not Switzerland?

I would be shocked if: Switzerland makes it to the Top-3.

11. Netherlands

What I think it will happen: The song feels like something is missing and the same could be said about the vocal abilities and chemistry of the duo, at least in the pre-parties. AVROTROS seems to be in panic and these are not good signs. They have time to turn it around, but I highly doubt it.

I would be shocked if: They finish 8th or higher.

12. Latvia

What I think it will happen: Latvia is the last entry that does have a decent chance to qualify in the Final. It will be a struggle though because they need to put Serbia, Netherlands, Switzerland and or Portugal behind them. An introvert song that might find an audience to vote for it.

I would be shocked if: Anything better than 10th it will be a surprise.

13. Malta

What I think it will happen: Malta will try to avoid the last place and it has a decent chance to make it. Qualifying to the Final is out of reach in my opinion.

I would be shocked if: Malta makes it to the Final.

14. Ireland 

What I think it will happen: Avoiding the last place is the only goal.

I would be shocked if: Ireland makes it to the Final.

15. Azerbaijan

What I think it will happen: Instant karma for Azerbaijan which was the main reason that the voting rule changed.

I would be shocked if: They finish higher than Bottom-3.

And that concludes my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1. 

There is a group of 6 certain qualifiers: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Croatia followed by a group of 6 countries that fight for the 4 remaining tickets: Moldova, Serbia, Portugal, Switzerland, Netherlands, Latvia.

I will be posting my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 2 in the next few days and will do the same with my betting book as well. You might find the first bet of the season as well there...

Rehearsals start in a few days, and it will be interesting to see how the new reality will look like.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Armenia

 

First Thoughts:

Armenia is the ultimate dark horse of the season.

It is the entry that has impressed me the most for this season, which is the reason why I left it for the end.

'Future Lover' grabs your attention from the first second and adds layer after layer to build up the tension.

Is the entry that has enormous potential if the staging is right, the only one this year that could give us a Jamala tree moment.

Coming from Semi - Final 2 and performing from slot #2 might be the reason Armenia is still flying under the radar.

It is an entry that will come alive on stage and its odds in all markets right now have considerable value.

I consider Armenia a solid Top-10 entry, a solid Top-3 in Semi - Final 2 and an outsider for the Top-4/5.

It reminds me of...

Australia '16, Armenia ' 14, 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5%- 2.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

9th-12th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

100% to qualify, Top-2 in Semi - Final

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia is my personal winner, so a biased alert is here. However I do think it has the potential to be Top-4/5 and if the perfect storm could even go higher. I do have it on my potential/possible/probable winner list...

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Germany

 

First Thoughts:

Germany needs to reinvent themselves in the contest.

The fourth entry in the row that will fight hard to avoid last place. At least 'Blood and Glitter' will get some Jury and Televote points to reach double digits.

The song is not that bad but is missing something in all levels.

It is not anthemic enough. It does not call the audience for action. It is not dark enough to force their targeted audience to vote for it.

It is a golden mediocrity with both constituencies and avoiding Bottom-3 is what they should be aiming for. If they receive 40 points in Total, they will become the second most successful German entry in the last decade...

It reminds me of...

Finland '06, '08

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-5

Worst case scenario:

Last Place

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany getting 30-35 points and finishing 21st-23rd

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: UK

 

First Thoughts:

This is a tough one to assess. A step back from last year.

'I Wrote a Song' could have been a Top-5 entry back in 2005 but it feels very outdated now.

In theory is not as bad as many people think but there are many grey areas that could land it somewhere in mid-table even a bit lower.

The main reason is that there are four other entries from the Big-6 that could all be in Top-10, or at least the three of them will be and there is no room for an extra Big.

Performing last is good news and could boost the Televoting score a bit, however I do get the feeling that UK's entry might be perceived as the first interval act before the voting starts.

A realistic goal would be to enter the Top-10 with one of the two constituencies.

 

It reminds me of...

Moldova '21, Serbia '20, Australia '18

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 34.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

12th-15th

Worst case scenario:

Last Place

What do I see in my crystal ball?

UK getting some points here and there and finishing  in the middle of the scoreboard 13th-16th.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Austria

First Thoughts:

'Who The Hell is Edgar' is a case study of how the early '00s televote magnets would perform under the 50/50 system.

Qualifying to the Final will not be a problem, even though I doubt that they will win the Semi - Final.

The elephant in the room is how Austria will perform with the Juries and in that case, I am not overly optimistic.

Staging is an issue as well and everything points to a low Top-10 with Televoting (6th-12th) and a mid-table Jury result (12th-17th).

If the Televoting score is high enough, they might make it to the Top-10. I currently have them 11th-14th.

It reminds me of...

Denmark '21, Italy '17, Poland '14

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 4/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 30/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.003%.... - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-6/8

Worst case scenario:

Right-hand side result in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

80%+ chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Not sure that Austria will win the Semi - Final, might pay the price for being very vulnerable with the Juries and end up with a bad draw in either half (3rd-8th, 14th-18th). 

The most vulnerable of the entries that are currently in Top-10 in odds to flop. 

Marginally out of Top-10 is my current estimation.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: San Marino

 

First Thoughts:

San Marino has changed path this year going back to the struggling years.

After two consecutive qualifications and a star representing them, San Marino opted for an unknown band and a song that its lyrics may be cringy at least.

The only goal for this year is to avoid the last place in the Semi - Final and even in a weak Semi -Final like this one, it seems unavoidable.

Probably the first 0 points in a Semi - Final since Czechia 2009...

It reminds me of...

Ireland '21, San Marino '18

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 21/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.00001% - 0.0001%

Best case scenario:

Avoid last place in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

3%-10% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

San Marino will finish last in Semi - Final.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Georgia

 

First Thoughts:

There are two certainties about Georgia's entry this year.

The first one is that Iru's vocals are from another planet.

The second one is that Georgia is heading for its first qualification since 2016.

The problem is that 'Echo' gives the impression that was created just to highlight Iru's vocal abilities. It has a strange structure and feels like an attempt to assembly distinctive styles in the same song.

If staged magnificently Georgia has a chance for a left-hand side result. If not 15th-22nd seems its natural habitat.

I do find its qualifying odds very short, but I fail to see how this one could be left out in a very weak Semi as this one.

EuroJury might be an indicator for its fate, but I have to say that I am not overly optimistic.

It reminds me of...

Armenia '17

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 35.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.10%

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

60%-70% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

We need to see the staging for this one. Not much of a song there, but some amazing vocals. If there is a proper show, Georgia might have its greatest result for a while!

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Poland

 

First Thoughts:

The guilty pleasure for 2023 is definitely Poland's 'Solo'.

Poland has the national final with the most upset victories and this year was not any different.

'Solo' is considered one of the lowest quality entries of all time and one of the main reasons that Semi - Final 2 will get a place in history for its poor results in the Final, however we should keep in mind a few things.

The song is a big hit in Poland since late 2022 and had enough support to send it to Eurovision. That means that the Polish diaspora could lift this one just enough to make it to the Final.

There Bottom-3/5 seems unavoidable, but qualifying is the realistic goal.

A month ago, I had this one written off as a non-qualifier but the facts that I mentioned above plus the very weak ensemble of this Semi-Final forced me to change my mind and now have it on my qualifiers list.

It reminds me of...

Moldova '21, Belarus '19, 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 23/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final and avoid Bottom-3

Worst case scenario:

Fail to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

50%-60% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Poland making it to the Final thanks to the diaspora and then avoiding Bottom-3 thanks to the 25-35 diaspora points from certain countries. 

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Greece

 

First Thoughts:

Fun fact about Greece's artist: Victor Vernicos is the first Greek artist in Eurovision that was not born when Greece won back in 2005!

Greece has turned the page a few years ago and keeps digging for gold in artists that are not widely known by the public and media but have something to say with their music leaving behind the days of folk/stereotypical pop.

'What They Say' is not your typical Greek entry but I do not know if this is a good or a sad thing.

It could have been an entry that could participate in any of the Nordic national finals or any western European final and this is not a good thing neither.

The main problem in my view is that Victor is trying to oversell a song that does not suit his age.

Could the younger audience or the mothers buy it? If yes, Greece is sailing to the Final. The allies are there as well to guarantee 25-30 points and Greece has a good chance to make it.

The odds imply that they might be in danger and of course we need to see it on stage, but my gut says that we will see Greece on Saturday.

It reminds me of...

Spain '21, Estonia '21, Belgium '19

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final and avoid Bottom-5

Worst case scenario:

Fail to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

60%-70% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Greece will qualify to the Final and there they will be used as a filler sandwiched between two heavy favourites leading to near Bottom-5 result that will be avoided thanks to the 35-50 guaranteed points from friends and allies.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Iceland

 

First Thoughts:

All good things are ending at one point. It was a matter of time for Iceland's amazing streak of good entries to finish.

I personally like 'Power' and in a weak Semi - Final like this one, it should not be written off yet.

However, I do recognise its flaws with the most obvious one being that this a 20-25 second entry in replay.

And Iceland does not have many allies in this Semi to help them a bit. Iceland has done the same mistake in the recent past and paid for it every single time and that was also an amazing streak ('15-'18).

Dilja has some charisma and must inject her energy to the viewers to have a fighting chance. 

If it makes it to the Final though, things will get tough, and Bottom-3 seems unavoidable. 

Currently have it on my NQ list even though I would be happy to see it in the Final, but I had the exact same feeling for 'Paper' back in 2017 and that did not happen.

It reminds me of...

Iceland '17, '15

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 30.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

35%-40% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

It will either qualify as 10th or easily be left out finishing 13th-14th. For the moment leaning on the latter outcome.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Cyprus

 First Thoughts:

Cyprus has slightly changed the recipe that was following since Fuego back in 2018, sending a slow tempo entry.

They are lucky because Semi - Final 2 could boost their chances and create some momentum before the Final.

'Broken Heart' is a potential Top-3 candidate for the Semi and why not, if the Austrian staging is a mess, could be a contender.

The male vocalists are not that many this year, and this fact could also help Cyprus achieve a left-hand side result in the Final.

One way or the other, Cyprus' spot at the Final is secured and remains to be seen if they could overachieve. 

12th -18th is where I would currently place Cyprus. This could be the best result since Fuego.

 It reminds me of...

Cyprus '17

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 34/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.3% - 0.6%

Best case scenario:

Reaching Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

80% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cyprus securing a place in the Final and finishing mid-table. Potentially Top-3 in the Semi - Final as well.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Romania

 

First Thoughts:

Romania pre and after 2017 are Eurovision's Mister Jekyll and Mister Hyde.

From a perfect record now in danger of a fourth non qualification in five years.

D.G.T (On and Off) is Romania's way to say to EBU that they are giving up on Eurovision. 

A cabaret entry performed by an 18-year-old that loses its credibility just because of his age on a European family show...

I wish there were more to be said but I am afraid that Romania with that type of entry and from slot #3 has minimal chances to qualify. And the sad thing is that this might the last Romanian entry we are watching for some time.

It reminds me of...

Germany '07

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 3/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 19/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

To avoid Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last Place in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

10% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Romania will have to fight hard with San Marino to avoid the last place and they have a chance to succeed. Finishing 14th or better will be an overachievement.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Denmark

 

First Thoughts:

Denmark is the first riddle to solve in Semi - Final 2 where everything could happen because of the low-quality level of entries being there.

'Breaking my Heart' is not the typical opener for a Semi - Final and could easily be lost in the running order.

Being the sixth best song from the first half is not a good omen. It is not yet a written off qualifier, but the road ahead is full of obstacles.

The new rule could help it a bit but at the same time most of its allies are on the other Semi - Final. 

Reiley's vocals have been suspicious as well, which is not a big problem at least for the Semi but not adding any extra points either.

My feeling is that Denmark will finish 12th or 13th in the end but there is plenty of time for Denmark to change its luck.

It reminds me of...

Poland '21, Australia '21

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 27/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

30%-35% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Denmark being the first opener since Armenia in 2019 that will fail to qualify to the Final.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Finland

 

First Thoughts:

The big favourite to win Semi - Final 1 and the runner up in odds, chasing Sweden since late February. 

Finland is considered a contender just for the second time in their whole Eurovision history.

The first time they won (2006) and that would be the outcome this year as well, if the 100% Televoting rule was still in place.

'Cha Cha Cha' grabs your attention from the very first second and it is a roller coaster of energy and pure fun. The adrenaline is all over the place and somehow Finnish language feels like the perfect fit. The change of rhythm and the fun kicks in in the second half slowly taking down your heart beats.

I cannot see how Finland could end up with less than 275 Televoting points - my projection is in the 300-350 area - but at the same time, I struggle to find a path where they can end up with more than 125-150 Jury points and this is the biggest obstacle for them to win.

The recent performance of similar entries with Juries is not very promising either.

Serbia last year finished 11th, Ukraine in '21 finished 9th and Finland in '21 as well finished 11th. Back in 2019, Iceland ranked 15th and Norway 18th while Portugal failed to qualify.

The change in EBU's guidelines for the jurors might give it an extra boost but I do not think that it will be enough.

This is the main reason I find Finland's odds way too short, with a fair price being somewhere between 12 and 15.

If, and that is a very big if, manage to be over the 150 Jury points threshold when the Jury vote is over, then and only then we might have a new favourite.

It reminds me of...

Iceland '19, Portugal '19

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 9/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 44/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

6.5% - 8%

Best case scenario:

Win

Worst case scenario:

5th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

Winner of the Semi-Final is the answer

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland coming short with the Juries and finishing 2nd-4th in the end, winning Televoting though.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Netherlands

 

First Thoughts:

All things come to an end! Netherlands' amazing qualification streak since 2016 is in danger this year.

'Burning Daylight' is the most suitable candidate to lose the qualification because of the rule change.

It is an atmospheric ballad that depends a lot on the chemistry between Mia and Dion to create some vibes and force people to vote for it.

Many people compare it to Calm After the Storm, but this is wishful thinking I believe.

My take is that Netherlands would have struggled even with 50/50 voting system. 

As you have already imagined, I currently have Netherlands in the non-qualifying list finishing 11th or 12th.

Producers seem to have used them as a filler between Czechia and Finland and that is not a good omen.

It reminds me of...

Estonia '17, Netherlands '15

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 34/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

16th-22nd in Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

35%-40% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I believe that Netherlands will not qualify, and it will not even be borderline. Currently there is value in their non qualifying odds.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Azerbaijan

 

First Thoughts:

Azerbaijan! The country, the Eurovision myth! The main reason of the voting system changes in Semi - Finals after last year's fiasco.

Not only it was one of the six nations that tried to fix the jury results and exchange points between them, but they were also the first country in history to qualify in the Final without getting a single televote point and of course finishing last in that constituency in their Semi - Final, a record that cannot be broken anymore with a different voting system in place...

It feels like Azerbaijan is throwing a towel this year, sending an entry that is destined to be doomed, unless they have a budget for Sim cards in place...

The only realistic goal for 'Tell me More' is to avoid the last place and that will be a tough battle squeezed between Sweden and Czechia.

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Semi - Final will be mission completed. Qualification though, if it happens, will be one of the biggest surprises of all time.

It reminds me of...

Georgia '21, '22

Televoting Potential: 2/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 18/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Avoid Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi-Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

95+% not to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan saving Ireland from the third last place in the last four years...

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Sweden

 

First Thoughts:

The one to beat next month. 'Tattoo' is the song that turned Sweden into the hot favourite since it was presented in Heat 4 of the Melodifestivalen and since then they never looked back.

It deserves to be the favourite having in theory the easiest path for the win scoring something like 300 jury points and more or less 200 televoting points.

A minor concern will be the change of the Melodifestivalen staging with BBC vetoing the 1800kg toaster on the Eurovision stage and the Swedish delegation must improvise to change it with something lighter that has a similar effect.

I do respect Sweden's favouritism and ability to stage its entries, however I do the song more vulnerable than many people would like to admit.

It is a well-polished choreography from a very charismatic performer that on the other hand does not interact with the camera at all.

I do get the impression that Sweden is trying to create an artistic act for the shake of the art failing to deliver an authentic result which is the latest trend in Eurovision and the one that has kept Sweden away from a televoting result that would have been equivalent to the pre-Final odds for the whole 2016-2022 era.

There is a chance Sweden ends up 4th-6th in Televoting and in that case, they either need to secure 300 jury points or make sure that the countries over them, finish way lower in juries.

Sweden basically needs to find points in the areas outside the Nordic and Baltic countries where all its high scores are coming from. 

Still not 100% convinced that Sweden is the winner.

It reminds me of...

Poor man's Sweden '12

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 41.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

25% - 30%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Outside of Top-3

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

100% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Some people might call me biased but I am not convinced that Sweden will win. If they do so it will be more difficult than what people think. 

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Moldova

 

First Thoughts:

Strategy that wins does not change is the Moldovan mantra for Eurovision. 

It is the only nation that recycles their artists with success without losing qualifications or drops in the ranking.

Pasha Parfeny will the first out of the two 2012 alumni that will perform back-to-back in Semi-Final 1.

'Soarele si Luna' is the second pagan/shamanic entry of the Semi Final after Norway and remains to be seen if this particular genre can have two finalists or there is room only for one.

It is considered among the certain or almost certain qualifiers, but I do have some doubts about this one.

It feels very repetitive. Moldova can stage their entries, but something is missing there and that's quality.

Norway's 'Queen of Kings' is more epic, closer to 'Spirit in the Sky' or ' Higher Ground' while 'Soarele si Luna' is closer to 'Fulenn' in terms of quality. 

I am not saying that it will not qualify, but its odds are way shorter than what they should be. 

  It reminds me of...

France '22, Slovakia '09

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 26.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify to the Final.

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

50/50

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sandwiched between Israel and Sweden, Moldova has one of the worse if not the worst draw from both Semi-Finals. It is borderline and I am currently leaning on the non-qualification side.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Israel

 

First Thoughts:

Israel has one of the longest qualifying streaks with the last non qualification dating back to 2014 and that streak will not end this year.

'Unicorn' if staged properly could become one of the dark horses this year.

Noa Kirel is a big name in Israel and the budget to produce the song is one of the highest if not the highest among all participants.

The song feels a bit disjointed at parts but there are ways to mask these parts live on stage.

Televoting could be remarkably high if the staging is perfect and remains to be seen if the jurors will find something to punish or will recognize the high quality of the staging/choreography etc.

EuroJury might help to get an idea where this one will land. The left hand-side finish is guaranteed and probably the Top-10.

If the Juries award Unicorn with a score similar to Fuego or SloMo then better watch out.

My gut feeling says that Israel will land somewhere between 3rd-9th but with a perfect storm could become a contender. One to watch out.

It reminds me of...

Moldova '21, Cyprus '18, '19

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 42.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 7.5%

Best case scenario:

Dark Horse

Worst case scenario:

12th-15th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

To Qualify with a 75% - 90% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I have Israel currently somewhere between 4th-8th, relying on a Top-5 televote score and waiting to see if the response from the jurors will be positive. If the answer is yes, we will have a thriller on Saturday night...

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Switzerland

 

First Thoughts:

When everyone else zags then you must zig. This is Switzerland's mantra in Eurovision for the fourth year in a row, sending a slow tempo entry in a year where Televoting only Semi-Finals will make sure that very few of them will make it to the Final.

This is the most difficult mission for Switzerland this year. It will be more difficult to qualify to the Final than secure a left hand-side finish in the Final.

Running order might become a double edge knife. It can either stand out between the chaos of Croatia and the Israeli entry, if the latter is not staged properly or it could be the dull entry that everybody forgets.

My instinct says that Switzerland will make it, but I would not be surprised if they fail to qualify. 

There are many anti-war entries this year, but Remo's vocals will make sure that if and when in the Final, he will deliver and will lift 'Watergun' above the competition.

Switzerland has the skills to be a Top-5/6 with the Juries but Televoting-wise Top-10 is the absolute maximum.

A Top-5 result could be within reach with the perfect staging and a second half draw among televoting magnets. It must qualify first though...

It reminds me of...

Switzerland '22, '21, Ukraine '10

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 40/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5 in the Final

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

To Qualify with a 50% - 60% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

It will be a bumpy road for Switzerland in the Semi-Final, and they will need to wow the public with the staging to stand out and make it to the Final.

If they get there, with some luck a Top-10 finish is within reach and if the perfect storm hits, maybe a Top-5.

One step at a time...

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Portugal

 

First Thoughts:

The last national final winner for 2023 is Mimicat and she hopes to continue the Portuguese golden era in Eurovision.

She has a tough task, performing in the first half of Semi-Final 1 but not all odds are against her.

'Ai Coracao' has all these folklore elements that are appreciated by an international audience without making the entry look kitch or outdated.

Portugal has a great track record with entries that do promote its traditional music and performing at #5 is not as bad as many people might think.

#5 currently has the longest non qualification streak with 5 in a row, however it is a good slot for an entry that relies on Televoting and sandwiched between Latvia and Ireland does them a favour.

It will not be an easy task, but I currently have Portugal on my qualifiers list. It is also the only feel-good song performing from slots #3 up to slot #9 when Israel performs.

It reminds me of...

Portugal '09, '96

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 35.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Top-15 in the Final

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

To Qualify with a 55% - 65% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Portugal making it to the Final, where they get some decent points from both constituencies to avoid a Bottom-5 result. It does shout a 17th-20th entry.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Malta

 

First Thoughts:

Eurovision is a contest where everything can happen, but having Malta qualifying to the Final from this Semi-Final would be one of the biggest surprises of all time.

Had they been in Semi-Final 2 they might have had a slim chance but being in the heavy weight one and performing at #2 is game over.

'Dance (our own party)' tries to stand out, borrowing bits and pieces from previous ESC entries but the result is very dubious.

Malta is heavily relying in juries to qualify and with them gone, Malta will fight to avoid the last place. 

The song feels amateurish compared to the competition and not in a positive way. 

I wish there were more to say about Malta, but I fail to picture a positive scenario in my head and my maths calculations where they can qualify...

It reminds me of...

Moldova '10, Lithuania '17

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 18/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% 

Best case scenario:

Avoid Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi-Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

Not to Qualify with a 90%+ certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Malta fighting hard with Ireland to avoid the last place in the Semi-Final but fails to do so...