Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Iceland

 

RO'A - VÆB

Iceland is a country that loves creating streaks of qualifications and non-qualifications: 

'05-'07: NQ / '08-'14: Q / '15-'18: NQ / '19-'22: Q

'23-'24: NQ...

I do have a suspicion that the NQ streak might continue this year as well, with Iceland performing in the first half of the first Semi-Final along with the likes of Estonia, Sweden, Ukraine, Poland, countries that are destined to grab the majority of points.

Væb, aka the Icelandic Jedward, will try to bring their energy on stage with a happy dance along entry that would suit better Eurovision Junior or Ireland or both...

This is a potential opener for the Semi but I do fear that Iceland will get lost with so many stronger entries coming after them. They do have some friends (Sweden, Norway) that could guarantee 10-15 points but I struggle to see where they can find the rest of the 30-35 points needed for the qualification.

There is no target audience that would vote for this one, maybe with the exception of kids, but Sweden takes over that demographic as well.

Overall, this is a better entry than their previous two but still lacks the quality to secure qualification.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Iceland finishing 12th-14th in the Semi - Final. 

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 15-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 10-20 - Tot: 10-30

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Iceland a certain non-qualifier or still in the mix for qualification?

You can hear my thoughts about Iceland in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Iceland

 

First Thoughts:

I could write a whole essay about what happened in Iceland this season and that essay could extend to 100 pages and only half page would have been about the actual song that will represent Iceland this year.

Hera Bjork is returning to Eurovision after fourteen years with an entry that feels more dated than her 2010 entry...

Iceland has taken the right decision to send an entry that represents Iceland and not Palestine or anti-Israel and a huge headache for EBU is out of the way.

Unfortunately for Iceland though that decision means that at the same time they have rejected a certain Top-10 and potentially a Top-5 result and will be staying in Semi - Final 1. 

I do have Iceland as the weakest entry of the whole lineup this year and producers placing them at #8 in running order after all the big names is the final nail in their coffin.

I will be surprised if Iceland does not finish last or avoids a Bottom-3 result.

It reminds me of...

UK '21 (Last Place)

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 23/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

.0000001%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Semi -Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-25

Final: Js: 0-10 - TV: 0-10 - Total: 0-20

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sometimes doing the right thing comes with consequences and had Iceland wanted to reject Bashar as their entry, they should have opted for the other available option in their national final, but instead they went for the big local name.

Finishing last in Semi - Final.

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Iceland

 

First Thoughts:

All good things are ending at one point. It was a matter of time for Iceland's amazing streak of good entries to finish.

I personally like 'Power' and in a weak Semi - Final like this one, it should not be written off yet.

However, I do recognise its flaws with the most obvious one being that this a 20-25 second entry in replay.

And Iceland does not have many allies in this Semi to help them a bit. Iceland has done the same mistake in the recent past and paid for it every single time and that was also an amazing streak ('15-'18).

Dilja has some charisma and must inject her energy to the viewers to have a fighting chance. 

If it makes it to the Final though, things will get tough, and Bottom-3 seems unavoidable. 

Currently have it on my NQ list even though I would be happy to see it in the Final, but I had the exact same feeling for 'Paper' back in 2017 and that did not happen.

It reminds me of...

Iceland '17, '15

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 30.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

35%-40% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

It will either qualify as 10th or easily be left out finishing 13th-14th. For the moment leaning on the latter outcome.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 14. Iceland...Will the Sun Rise?

 

Qualifying Record: 9/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 8. Iceland

 

8. Iceland

Qualifying Record: 8/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q