The Tipping Point?...

The big day is here, ladies and gentlemen! 

Months of speculations and different narratives regarding the winner will be tested in the next few days. 

All eyes will be in Ukraine this evening, during and after the show. 

The market is still behind Ukraine that was trading as low as 1.63 yesterday. During the Jury show, we had some early cracks with the price drifting slightly to 1.75 and the reason was Italy's dress rehearsal!

The million-dollar question, or to be more precise the tens of million pounds question, is if Ukraine can win the Contest not based on merit but based on the situation and the waves of support going its way. 

After the show we will also have the running order draw. If Ukraine gets a second half draw, which is the most probable scenario* (already 4 of the Big-5 performing in first half and only UK performing is second), then I am expecting the price to shorten more, reaching levels that we have never seen before the voting in Eurovision. 

* The order of announcing the finalists is the order they draw their running order. If Ukraine is announced late, that might be a small hint of how EBU will treat Ukraine in the Final. 

Enough with the theories! It is time for action! Ten days ago, I have posted my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings and a thing or two have changed. 

Last year my predictions for both Semi-Final were 8/10. I will be happy with a similar result.

Albania 

One of my case studies for this year. I find Albania's entry too aggressive and messy to connect with the casual viewers. In the last three competitions Albania was saved three times: one by the televoters (2019) and two times by the Juries (2018,2021). Their four qualifications in that span were marginals (2015-8th, 2018-8th, 2019-9th, 2021-10th).

Albania has some friends in the Semi-Final, call me Italy, Greece, Switzerland, and Croatia, but they are missing their best allies which are Montenegro, and North Macedonia. 

Add those facts to the aggressiveness of the song, which reminds me of Armenia '19 and Israel '14 and the value does not lie on Q (1.45) but on non-qualification currently @ 4.50 in Betfair Sportsbook.

Tv: 9th - Juries: 12th - Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 75/115 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 30/50)

Latvia

I still believe that 'Eat Your Salad' is a joke entry but I respect its dynamic. I would not mind if it were left out and there is still a chance it might, but Televote will be enough to save it.

Tv: 6th - Juries: 9th - Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 145/185 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 55/75)

Lithuania

I am far from certain with this one. It can go both ways and is the definition of borderline. Being in the middle of the road might be enough to secure the 10th and final spot for the Final. 

Q @2.82 has value for those who are sentimental.

Tv: 11th - Juries: 10th - Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 45/65)

Switzerland

Another hit and miss entry. It is not written off, but I reckon that during the show its odds will start drifting. There are better jury-bait packages in the Semi-Final and the dark stage is not adding anything to the song. Running order does not help either. It needs a Top-6 with the Juries as a worst-case scenario to qualify because its televoting appeal is minimal.

Tv: 15th - Juries: 8th - Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 75/105 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 60/80)

Slovenia

Nothing changed here. The goal is to avoid last place and will probably fail to succeed. 

Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th - Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 20/40 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 10/20)

Ukraine

The absolute case study that we will be mentioning for ages. This is the big night for Ukraine and remains to be seen how people in the arena and at home will react. I must admit that I am not impressed with the staging, but this song is not about music anymore. It can still win both the Semi-Final and the Grand Final, but I think that it will find strong resistance from Greece, at least in the Semi.

Tv: 1st - Juries: 3rd - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 260/300 (Tv: 150/170 - Juries: 110/130)

Bulgaria

Bulgaria will reach its goal of avoiding the Bottom-3 and especially the last place. Qualification is out of reach; the odds though have some value at least for those who use the two trading companies. 

@17.00 I wouldn't blame someone if they placed a fun bet (I have😊).

Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th - Total: 14th

Estimated Points: 30/60 (Tv: 15/35 - Juries: 15/25)

Netherlands

Netherlands will be sailing to the Final! It has a chance to crack Top-3 tonight, but the staging might affect its chances. Still in the mix for a Top-10 result in the Final and my favourite entry for this year!

Tv: 5th - Juries: 5th - Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 190/230 (Tv: 95/115 - Juries: 95/115)

Moldova

There was never a doubt about Moldova qualifying. They bring loads of energy that is infectious. The Q odds are too short (1.44), but qualification might be marginal. 

Tv: 7th - Juries: 11th - Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 110/150 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 40/60)

Portugal

Another one qualifying easily. Portugal does have a decent chance to crack Top-3 tonight and its odds are not bad at all (3.6). This is another one to watch as it has Top-10 potential as well.

Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 230/270 (Tv: 110/130 - Juries: 120/140)

Croatia

I had Croatia a borderline non-qualifier, but the messy staging has made sure that Croatia will miss another Final. Not sure where they can find the points to make it.

Tv: 14th - Juries: 16th - Total 15th

Estimated Points: 30/50 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 15/25)

Denmark

Denmark failed to elevate its staging and its chances. Some allies in the Semi-Final can help them avoid the last place.

Tv: 16th - Juries: 14th - Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 25/50 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 15/30)

Austria

Austria had a roller coaster ride this week. Pia Maria's vocals were an issue during rehearsals and Austria had fallen in the non-qualification zone. Yesterday, somehow improved and with the help of the pre-recorded backing vocals, Austria climbed back to the Top-10. I am still not convinced that the Juries gave Austria an out of jail card. I might underestimate their Televoting power though. Would not be surprised if they qualify.

Tv: 12th - Juries: 13th - Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 50/90 (Tv: 30/50 - Juries: 20/40)

Iceland

The one that steadily elevated during rehearsals. Iceland is in with a chance. The song could do very well both with Juries and Televoters and has some allies that could offer the much-needed points for the qualification (Denmark, Norway, Latvia, Netherlands). The Q odds (2.4-2.6) are the ones with the best value for tonight. I am more than happy having Iceland in my book to qualify @ 3.5!

Tv: 10th - Juries: 7th - Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 110/150 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 70/90)

Greece

'Die Together' was in the conversation for a good finish, somehow it got forgotten and now it re-emerges back on the surface. I do not know if Greece has enough to crack Top-5 in the Final, it might do as it is currently gaining momentum, but winning the Semi-Final is possible. I know that there is the elephant in the room but Winning the Semi @ 5.00 does have value and I will back it. Juries will give enough to elevate it I reckon.

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 270/320 (Tv: 130/150 - Juries: 140/170)

Norway

The one that might threaten Ukraine's televoting win. It can gain a momentum as most of the viewers will be seeing it for the first time. Get ready for a market overreaction. Sailing to the final, could also finish in Top-3 but I do not find value at the current price (1.77). 

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 4th - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points: 240/280 (Tv: 140/160 - Juries: 100/120)

Armenia

A beautiful way to close the Semi Final. Some might find the staging funny, but Armenia has done enough to secure a place in the Final. 

Tv: 8th - Juries: 6th - Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 140/180 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 80/100)

And that's it! I am 100% certain for six of my qualifiers: Greece, Ukraine, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, Armenia.

I have Latvia, Iceland, and Moldova in the almost certain qualifiers and Lithuania in the 10th spot is the vulnerable one. 

Albania, Switzerland, or Austria might grab that one.

And it is time for my betting tips!

I have already tipped 

Austria not to qualify @2.00 x 25 units (17.04) 

After doing a full circle, I find that bet at the same price after 3 weeks!

There are 75 units left to this Semi Final and I will split them in the following bets

Greece Semi-Final Winner @ 4.80 (trading companies) x 10 units

Albania not to qualify @ 4.50 (Betfair Sportsbook) x 30 units

Iceland to qualify @ 2.62 (trading companies) x 35 units

I need 2/4 successful bets to have a profitable Semi-Final.

You can find all my bets for Semi-Finals and the Final here.

Good luck with all your bets! I will be posting on Thursday for Semi-Final 2 and will be on twitter to comment during and after the Semi-Final.

 

Eurovision Madness is here! Keep calm and know your numbers!

 

We have finally gotten a glimpse of all 40 songs and the market got heated today. 

It has been quiet for the whole week, missing any major drama a la Cyprus '18, Azerbaijan '19, Australia '19. 

There have been some movements in the qualify/not qualify market, slightly more than usual because of the impact of the black hole sun on stage that has messed certain entries.  

Everything was relatively quiet until Friday. And then Big-5 rehearsals and running order draw happened and like last year, the market has made a move. 

Ukraine is still the big favourite and keeps shortening to Sergey Lazarev levels, currently @ 1.72. It remains to be seen if Kalush will have the same fate.

The big winner of the last few days is of course UK. It surpassed Sweden and Italy and now is second favourite @ 9.00. First the rehearsal and then the second half draw made the odds move to single digits. My concern is that because of the staging, UK will have to perform after a break, which means somewhere between #15-#17. 

Unless EBU decides to act to promote UK and give a later slot, creating an extra break or pause to the show, UK will be performing in a no man's land. All the action in producer's era is concentrated in slots #10-#12 for the first half and #18-#25 in the second half. 

There is no winner after #12 (Netherlands '19) until we reach #21 (Ukraine '16). It is the same with the runners-up. After #13 (Australia '16) the next runner-up is at #20 (France '21). The first slot with a podium in the second half is #18 (Russia '16-3rd).

Italy's underwhelming rehearsal has created more questions. Is RAI trying to avoid a second win in a row? Is it that Mahmood and Blanco are only tired and need some time to find their form again? Was it a clever idea to spend time on their tours instead of rehearsing?  There is still time.

Sweden is the other sad face of the day slipping from third favourite to fourth and back to the double-digit odds. As is the case every year, Sweden brings more or less the staging of the Melfest and that is now compared to other countries' final product. It was just a correction of the market that sends Sweden where it should be trading, near the 15.00-20.00 area. They are now hoping for a second half draw to keep dreaming.

The day was bittersweet for the other upcoming favourite, Spain. The first half draw made their odds drift a bit, but still in a great distance from the group following. A podium result is still on the table; however, the win seems like a long shot. Something to keep in mind in case Ukraine gets a first half draw, it is probable that EBU will give Spain a latter spot and that might neutralize Ukraine's televote a bit...

My feeling is that there is still some time for someone else to rise to the occasion and sneak in the Top-5 or even higher. There are always the late bloomers that add some spice to the contest. 

The dynamics are now moving faster, and the market responds quicker. 

 And some thoughts about the Semi-Finals so far.

Semi-Final 1: There is a group of six certain qualifiers: Ukraine, Greece, Norway, Netherlands, Armenia, Portugal.

There is also a second group that could end up both ways: Albania, Moldova, Latvia, Switzerland, Iceland. 

Finally, there is the third group that has only theoretical chances to qualify: Austria, Lithuania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Denmark, and Slovenia.

The odds that I find most attractive now and I will be watching them closely is Albania's NQ and Iceland's Q.

Semi-Final 2: My certain qualifiers are: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Serbia, Czechia.

North Macedonia and Montenegro are the only no-hopers.

Everyone else could end up both ways: Estonia, Finland, Belgium, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Malta, San Marino, Israel, Georgia, Ireland. 

Plenty of chances to back outsiders to qualify or shock non-qualifiers. Cyprus, Belgium, and Finland are the ones that I am monitoring. 

I will be posting a full break down and tips for the two Semi-Finals on Tuesday and Thursday with some useful stats as well.

Enjoy the last relaxing day before the madness starts!!!

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 The rehearsals have already started with some major hiccups (call me stage malfunction) and remains to be seen how some entries might be affected by that.

There is no official statement for the moment, and we have a few more days to find out if the rotating sun will work properly or some entries will need to change plans and their presentation. 

Not the best thing to happen when we have a Semi-Final happening in eight days.

We have to move on and it's time to focus on the entries of Semi-Final 2.

Last year I got right 8/10 qualifiers, having Austria (8th) and Czechia (10th) in my list, and missing Portugal (11th) and Albania (14th).

Just a reminder that if you click on the name of each country, you can find the detailed preview. 

1. Sweden

Tv: 1st - Juries: 1st

What I think it will happen: I do not know what will happen in the Final and if Sweden will win the trophy or not, but the win in the Semi-Final looks like a certainty. The other potential winners are more vulnerable and do stand a chance just in theory. The Jury win is locked and remains to be seen if Sweden can win the Televoting as well. Just a reminder that the best score for Sweden with televoters after the 2015 win, is 103 points back in 2017 and they have not reached the 100 points since then.

I would be shocked if: Sweden finishes out of Top-2.

2. Estonia

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 4th

What I think it will happen: Estonia is the less vulnerable entry of the rest of the field and can score decent points with both constituencies. The odds for a Top-3 finish @3.55 have some value. It's the type of entry that can get the 3-7 points from everyone and finish high without people noticing. 

I would be shocked if: Estonia fails to finish in Top-5.

3.  Poland

Tv: 4th - Juries: 5th

What I think it will happen: Poland reminds me of Bulgaria last year. Among the favorites, at least in theory, and when the Contest started it never took off. Poland can always rely on its diaspora, but this is easier to happen in the Final. The other concern is that Poland has not performed well in Eurojury and they have a chronicle problem with Juries. In fact, they have never finished in Top-10 in a Semi-Final despite qualifying to the Final four times!!! If they miss the Top-10 again then there is a problem.

I would be shocked if: Poland fails to finish in Top-10 with Juries.

4. Serbia

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 8th

What I think it will happen: In Corpore Sano can and will qualify no matter what the running order is. Could achieve a similar result to Russia last year both in Semi-Final and Final. If the juries do not kill it, sky is the limit. Televoting will be enough by itself to help Konstrakta qualify.

I would be shocked if: Serbia misses the Final.

5. Finland

Tv: 5th - Juries: 6th

What I think it will happen: The running order, the brand name and Finland's history with rock entries implies that Rasmus will sail to the Final. Points are guaranteed from both constituencies and would not be surprised if they finish higher, but it would be very difficult to finish lower.

I would be shocked if: They win the Semi or disqualify.

6. Australia

Tv: 9th - Juries: 2nd

What I think it will happen: Australia traditionally suffers with Televoting and 'Not The Same' is destined to struggle as well. Jury points will be enough to secure the ticket to the Final. I reckon that the current odds will shorten throughout the week.

I would be shocked if: Australia finishes in Top-3 with televoters.

7. Belgium

Tv: 12th - Juries: 3rd

What I think it will happen: Belgium is another Jury-oriented entry that will struggle to secure televotes. Juries will most probably save it, however 1.34 to qualify seems very short.

I would be shocked if: Belgium finishes in Top-6 with the public vote.

8. Czechia

Tv: 6th - Juries: 11th

What I think it will happen: A good televote score and hopefully a Top-10 or near Top-10 Jury score will be more than enough to send them to the Final. Another song that suffers a bit on live. If it were on the other Semi, they would be in trouble. They are not 100% safe yet but many things have to go wrong to miss the Final. 

I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-5 with Juries.

9. San Marino

Tv: 7th - Juries: 13th

What I think it will happen: I have four countries tied with a Total of twenty in ranking with Juries and Televoting. Anything could happen from 9-13, if I include Malta as well. I have San Marino leading that group and making it to the Final for the reasons I have described in their post. They are de facto Italy 2.0 with Achille Lauro being a big name in Italy and abroad and I'm sure RAI will treat them like theirs. Italy does not vote on that Semi and these 24 points could make the difference; however, the Italian diaspora will help. If he avoids a Bottom-3 with Juries he should be fine.

I would be shocked if: San Marino is not Top-10 with the public vote.

10. Azerbaijan

Tv: 11th - Juries: 9th

What I think it will happen: Azerbaijan could go both ways, but I still have them on my Q list. They have the know how to qualify and the quality to be Top-10 with both constituencies. The early draw is a concern, especially coming after Serbia, but on the other hand coming before Georgia does them a favour.

I would be shocked if: Azerbaijan finishes lower than 12th.

11. Cyprus

Tv: 10th - Juries: 10th

What I think it will happen: Another coin toss result. I do think that the point difference between 9th and 12th will be within 10-15 points. I am slightly biased with Cyprus, as I find the entry a bit Eurovision by numbers and that could hurt them now that the trend is authenticity. Staging will be crucial. If it is a mess, then they will be left behind.

I would be shocked if: They finish Top-5 with any of the two constituencies.

12. Israel

Tv: 8th - Juries: 12th

What I think it will happen: A bit optimistic here, but I remain open to good result for Israel either with Juries or public vote that could bring them close to the Final. Could be a hit and miss though and see them finish in Bottom-3.

I would be shocked if: They finish higher than 10th.

13. Malta

Tv: 15th - Juries: 7th

What I think it will happen: I might be harsh with their public vote ranking, but I find Malta's entry super generic and indifferent. I always respect their Jury 'magic' and they do have a chance to be in the Final. If they get there though, Bottom-3 is a certainty...

I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-10 with public vote or finish out of Top-10 with Juries.

14. Romania

Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th

What I think it will happen: Romania's recent track record with the three straight non qualifications will continue. Even if they do better with public vote, I struggle to see how jurors will vote for this one. Most of the friends are on the other Semi-Final as well.

This is my main bet, already tipped for Semi-Final 2

I would be shocked if: They finish Top-10 with Juries.

15. Georgia

Tv: 14th - Juries: 14th

What I think it will happen: Any country qualifying from now on will be a shocker qualifier. Georgia has a very experimental entry for a competitive environment. It is not a bad song but is not for Eurovision. I would be happy if they qualify, but I fail to find a qualification path for them.

I would be shocked if: They reach Top-10 with any of the two constituencies.

16. Montenegro

Tv: 16th - Juries: 16th

What I think it will happen: Another hit and miss for Montenegro. Better than their previous entries but still weak for the Top-10. They will get a few points from Serbia and North Macedonia and the occasional 1-3 points from elsewhere, but 50-60 points is their ceiling.

I would be shocked if: Yes, this would be the definition of a shocker qualification, even to that very weak Semi.

17. North Macedonia

Tv: 18th - Juries: 17th

What I think it will happen: The best possible result I can see for North Macedonia is avoiding Bottom-3. That could happen. Anything more than that would require to break the law of physics...

I would be shocked if:  They can avoid Bottom-3 with both constituencies.

18. Ireland

Tv: 17th - Juries: 18th

What I think it will happen: Ireland wants to make history and finish last for a third time in a row. They are really close to that! I cannot decide who is more amateurish: The entry or RTE...

I would be shocked if: They somehow avoid finishing last.

And that's it for Semi-Final 2. I am sure that some of the rankings need some ironing and hopefully will get them right by the time of the show next week. 

In the next few days, I will be posting my previews for the direct finalists. 

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 

One of the longest Eurovision seasons, the most crowded in terms of national finals, is ending!

Forget the polls, forget the juries, try to burst the Eurovision bubble, and see the songs for what they are on stage.

I find my pre-rehearsal power rankings to be one of my most useful posts. I use it as a compass when we are deep in the bubble and get carried away by a good or bad staging or rehearsal. 

Last year, my Semi-Final 1 score was 8/10, having Romania (4th) and Croatia (10th) in, missing Israel (11th) and Azerbaijan (12th). I have also predicted Malta correctly as the winner but most of my initial predictions needed some ironing regarding the actual ranking.

Let's see how many I will get this year. If you click on the name of each country, you can find the detailed preview. Enjoy and let me know your thoughts!

1. Ukraine

Tv: 1st - Juries: 3rd

What I think it will happen: I don't know what Ukraine will do in the Final, but in the smaller field of the Semi-Final it can score better with Juries, and relying on the Televote, secure the win. There is no value on that price though and placing a bet on Lay is something to keep in mind

I would be shocked if: Ukraine will not finish in Top-2. We will not find before the Final, but it would be a huge upset.

2. Norway

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 6th

What I think it will happen: In a Semi full of slow-tempo songs the up-tempo are the winners playing alone in Televote while the others split the Jury points between them. Therefore, you see Norway second even though the countries that follow have a smaller total. Wouldn't be surprised if Norway wins the Televote. Top-3 is almost guaranteed.

I would be shocked if: They are not Top-2 in Televoting and/or finishing out of Top-10 with Juries.

3. Netherlands

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 2nd

What I think it will happen: I don't know if I am invested so much in that song that I have become biased, or Juries and audience have missed something. I find it slightly superior to the other slow-tempos and that automatically makes it a Top-3 contender. 

I would be shocked if: Netherlands finishes out of Top-6. 

4. Greece

Tv: 4th - Juries: 1st

What I think it will happen: Greece has in theory a higher ceiling than Netherlands and Norway and Ukraine being a X-factor, I would not be surprised if Greece finishes anywhere between 1st and 4th or slide a bit behind and finish 5th. 

I would be shocked if: Greece is out of Top-3 with Juries and/or finishes out of Top-6.

5. Armenia

Tv: 5th - Juries: 4th

What I think it will happen: Armenia will be sailing to the Final! The third slow-tempo song in the race for the best finish. Top-3 could be within reach. One of the rehearsals I am looking forward the most.

I would be shocked if: Armenia finishes out of Top-8 or is saved by one of the two constituencies.

6. Albania

Tv: 7th - Juries: 8th

What I think it will happen: The opening slot and some friends in the Semi will make sure that Albania qualifies one way or the other to the Final. It does not have enough to contend for Top-3, it does not have something that the jurors could punish. 

I would be shocked if: I have Albania on my certain qualifiers. However, if Latvia for some reason qualifies (yes, that is a shock) and Albania is not announced yet, then that could mean trouble.

7. Portugal

Tv: 10th - Juries: 5th

What I think it will happen: I thought that Portugal would do better in the pre-rehearsal metrics and that has not happened. Maro performs in a bad slot as well and that makes things difficult, but Portugal has the quality to qualify. The fourth slow-tempo of the pack that could override the other ones and potentially finish in Top-3/5. 

I would be shocked if: Portugal misses the Final, however the current price is very short in my opinion.

8. Moldova

Tv: 6th - Juries: 11th

What I think it will happen: This is the last of the certain or almost certain qualifiers for this Semi. Televoting will be the key once again and Juries could rank them higher as well. Could finish lower but not higher.

I would be shocked if: They are not Top-10 with Televoting.

9. Lithuania

Tv: 8th - Juries: 12th

What I think it will happen: We are now entering in the danger zone. Qualification is far from certain, but Lithuania might have just enough to get those 100-110 points and secure its place in the Final. Would not be shocked if they don't though.

I would be shocked if: They finish higher than 8th or in the Bottom-3.

10. Switzerland

Tv: 14th - Juries: 7th

What I think it will happen: I have included this one in my Top-10 just because I might be biased against it and missed something. I recognize its jury power, but I reckon that the Televoting will be non-existent. It will need either a Top-5 Jury score or 20-30 televote points and a 6th-8th Jury finish. 

I would be shocked if: Switzerland finishes in Top-10 with Televoters.

11. Croatia

Tv: 11th - Juries: 10th

What I think it will happen: A similar result to last year when Croatia became the first country to miss the Final even though it finished in Top-10 with both constituencies. It does have the quality, but it lacks that something extra that could propel its Jury or Televote score. This is one to keep an eye on as the qualifying odds look juicy for the moment.

I would be shocked if: Croatia missed the Final once again after being placed in Top-10 with both constituencies.

12. Latvia

Tv: 9th - Juries: 13th

What I think it will happen: According to the EuroJury result this is a certain qualifier. Maybe I am getting old 😂 but I struggle to see how Latvia would qualify. It could score better with Televoting and get some Jury points from some friends (Lithuania, Norway) but being #2 is a big setback. One to watch during rehearsals. There is still value in the NQ price.

I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-5 with Televoting or Top-10 with Juries.

13. Iceland

Tv: 13th - Juries: 9th

What I think it will happen: We are gradually entering in the no-hope region. Iceland has a shot if they nail everything and surpass a few of the other slow-tempo songs and they are plenty. If the bar is set low (85-90pts) they might get lucky.

I would be shocked if: They finish Bottom-3.

14. Austria

Tv: 12th - Juries: 16th

What I think it will happen: Unfortunately, the studio version is far superior to the actual live and the majority of the televoters have not heard that version. Austria needs a lot of work and the time they had on their hands was not enough. I have already tipped Austria as a non-qualifier, and I might top-up the units on that bet. 

I would be shocked if: Austria fixed the vocals in a few weeks and qualifies.

15. Denmark

Tv: 15th - Juries: 14th

What I think it will happen: Denmark is not going anywhere. Has no appeal to jurors or televoters and I would not be surprised if they finish last. They need to change their recipe.

I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-10 with any of the two constituencies.

16. Bulgaria

Tv: 16th - Juries: 15th

What I think it will happen: A few low points here and there that might be enough to save them from last place and that's it.

I would be shocked if: They qualify.

17. Slovenia

Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th

What I think it will happen: A song that is out of touch. Never got any traction. Avoiding Bottom-3 is the only target they could set.

I would be shocked if: They qualify.

Betting Time!

Tomorrow I will post my book for the year but a quick reminder. I will have a book of 1000 units in Total, split in 100 units for each Semi-Final and 800 units for the Final. Returned units could be carried in Semi-Final 2 and /or the Final. 

So far for the Semi-Final 1 I have tipped

Austria Lay @2.00 x 25 units

Currently the Lay is @2.16 and the betting sites have the non-qualify @1.83.

I reckon there is still value there. 

Let me know what your thoughts and ideas. Just a reminder that can see regular updates and comments on my twitter account.

Good luck with your predictions and bets!

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 18. Czechia...has a lighting emergency

 

Qualifying Record: 3/9

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/7 for #18, 12/14 for the Pimp slot

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q for #18, 1 NQ for Pimp slot

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 17. Sweden...wants to Hold (the Trophy) Closer...

 

Qualifying Record: 11/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/10 for #17

 10/14 for penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 8 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 16. Belgium...won't miss the Final

 

Qualifying Record: 6/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/13

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 15. Montenegro...will they finally breathe some Final air?

 

Qualifying Record: 2/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14

Current Country Streak: 4 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 13. Romania...wants you to call (for) them

 

Qualifying Record: 10/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 12. Estonia...hopes for a good result

 

Qualifying Record: 7/17

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 11. North Macedonia...is doing circles trying to qualify

 

Qualifying Record: 6/17

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 10. Ireland...wants a rich result

 

Qualifying Record: 6/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/14

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 5 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 9. Cyprus...is imperative

 

Qualifying Record: 9/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 11/14

Current Country Streak: 6 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 8. Australia...the qualifying record will never be the same

 

Qualifying Record: 4/5

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ                                      Current Running Order Streak: 5 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 5. Georgia...locked in or locked out again?

 

Qualifying Record: 7/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 4 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 4. Azerbaijan...will the lights fade or shine brighter?

 

Qualifying Record: 11/12*(10/12 if 50/50 rule is applied in 14'-15') 

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/7* (5/7 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 3. Serbia...est equus obscurus

 Qualifying Record: 9/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 3 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 2. Israel...is self-conscious

 

Qualifying Record: 9/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 3/14

Current Country Streak: 5 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 6 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 2 - 1. Finland...misses Jezebel

 

Qualifying Record: 8/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 16. Norway...wants to turn a wolf into a vegetarian

 

Qualifying Record: 11/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/13 for #16

 10/14 for penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 4 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q for #16

 6 Q for penultimate slot