Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Norway

 

Lighter - Kyle Alessandro

Norway deserves my respect for what they have done this year in MGP.

They had a mediocre line-up but managed to upgrade the only half-decent song they had in the studio version into a most certain qualifier to the Final.

'Lighter' is a generic dance track that we have listened hundreds of times that somehow became serviceable thanks to Kyle Alessandro's charisma on stage. This is the type of entries that thrive in a Public vote only Semi-Final before they get completely lost in the Final. 

I think that Norway is an almost certain qualifier, but they have not checked their ticket yet. If the latter happens though, I struggle to find a way Norway could avoid Bottom-5, with an entry that will be near the bottom with Juries and coming from a Public vote saturated region that has better packages to offer.

I would not be surprised if Norway could finish last for a second year in a row and that will be one of my fun bets when the market opens.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway making it to the Final and then fight head to head with Spain to avoid the last place.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 24/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-60

F: J: 5-15 - PV: 10-35 - Tot: 15-50

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Norway a lock for the Final?

You can hear my thoughts about Norway in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

It was two weeks ago when Gåte appeared in Heat 2 and it became obvious that 'Ulveham' was the one for Norway.

It faced tough competition from KEiiNO but thanks to the 60/40 voting system that boosts the Televoting, they made it to Malmö. It would have been an own goal for Norway had they sent anyone else this year.

This is an entry with many folk/pagan elements that blend beautifully with the rock/metal sound and Gunnhild's voice. She offers an iconic moment during the choruses that could translate to televote points and there are the epic elements that recreate the Game of Thrones atmosphere.

The staging could use some minor changes, keeping the dark atmosphere there but add some extra light on Gunnhild's face to catch the emotions and establish a better connection with the audience.

I suspect that this will be the final package and remains to be seen the how this will appeal in the Eurovision field.

'Ulveham' is a gamble for Norway in terms of testing the waters as a hybrid genre. They did the correct thing by trying a new recipe and I do believe that a mid-table result could be the worst case scenario and it is a strong contender for a Top-10 result. 

Winning KEiiNO, having an ideal running order though, at Televoting was a good sign but there is some skepticism how well it could perform with Juries. 

My gut says it can do better than their recent entries that were hitting a wall at the 50 points threshold. The Televoting potential is there and remains to be seen how high they can go.

This is definitely not a contender for the win, but Top-10 is possible and we can take it for there. Qualification to the Final won't be a problem.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '21 (Q), Finland '21 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1-4%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5

Worst case scenario:

15th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-140

Final: Js: 75-150 - TV: 75-200 - Total: 150-350

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway qualifying easily and then reach Top-10, finishing 7th-9th. Personally I wanna see it higher and I do think that Top-5 can be achieved but we need to know the whole field first.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

Norway continues the saga of the pagan anthems that tend to perform well with the Televoters when coming from a Nordic nation.

Queen of Kings hopes to repeat the KEiiNO success and reach the Top-5.

Is it doable? Probably not but Norway is an almost certain Top-6/10 with Televoting that could be enough to secure a Top-10 finish. 

Juries tend to dislike this type of entries so I would not count in any votes there apart from the obvious Scandinavian friends.

The fact that the Semi Final is 100% Televoting gives an extra advantage to Norway that could finish in Top-3 and get a decent running order for the Final as well. 

It reminds me of...

France '22, Azerbaijan '21, Norway '19, Denmark '18 and '13

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5 winning the Televote

Worst case scenario:

12th-15th in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

99% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway sailing to the Final, finishing Top-3. They get a decent draw and land a Top-6/8 result being in Top-3 with the Televoters.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 16. Norway...wants to turn a wolf into a vegetarian

 

Qualifying Record: 11/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/13 for #16

 10/14 for penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 4 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q for #16

 6 Q for penultimate slot

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 9. Norway

 9. Norway

Qualifying Record: 10/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/12

Current Country Streak: 3 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ