The French Connection

 

We are ten days away from Eurovision week and it is time to have a look at the potential, wannabe, and faux contenders.

Just for clarity, I will include once again my definition of an Eurovision contender to avoid any confusion with the Winner's market leaders. 

Contender is an entry that does stand out of the crowd, has a USP and it does offer a moment during the three minutes. That moment could be visual, sentimental, musical perfection, anything that will call the viewer/juror to action. 

This is the first half of my definition and the second half is more boring and it is about maths.

A contender is an entry that could potentially reach 500 points which is the threshold that, most of the times, secures the win. The easiest way to reach to that threshold is to score approximately 300 points with the Televote and 200 points with the juries, that has been reversed in the last two editions and could potentially happen this year as well.

The only country in the 50/50 era ('16-'24) that won without scoring 200+ points with both constituencies is Ukraine in '22 that scored 192 points with the Juries. The second lowest score with a constituency were Italy's 206 Jury points in 2021.

It is probable to have an entry this year that could win by missing the 200 points threshold with a constituency but I felt the urge to point out that this is not something that happens very often.

I will use the Tier 1-2 system to categorize the countries that I have on my list. 

Tier 1 includes the two entries that I feel that they have a winning path depending on their performance alone and that path is open with both constituencies.

My Tier 2 includes one more entry that could find a way to carve a winning path, but it could either fall short with one of the constituencies or simply do not have enough to beat both entries of Tier 1. 

Fasten your seat belts and here we go!

France never led the market and I do think that this is good news for them. They are currently trading at double digits (13.5) but this is the song to beat in my opinion.

The bar was set really high from the French and the song release did not have a great response among the fans and the market. 

There are reasonable doubts regarding its Public vote appeal but I strongly believe that this more of a fans overreaction because fans traditionally prefer the up-tempo/divas/televote magnet entries and France is not ticking these boxes.

If there is one country that has built a momentum for themselves and is contending this year, that is France! They are actively trying to win since 2016, with some decent results in that span (2nd - '21, 4th - '24, 6th- '16) and some hits and misses as well. They have tried different approaches and they might have found the recipe for success aiming to win the Juries, which is always a good head start.

They have finished 2nd twice ('21, '24) in the Jury vote, both times losing to Switzerland and maybe the third time is a charm! They have some decent results with the Public vote as well and they are the only country that is ranked in Top-3 with both constituencies in different years that has not won the Contest yet.

A Big-5 country, that has not won for 47 years, is EBU's best case scenario when it comes to the Eurovision 2025 winner and they will give them any help they will need for sure.

The reason why I think that France can win is that they have a clear path. They are my favourite to win the Jury vote and I am very confident that they will be over the 300 points threshold, not reaching Nemo and Loreen's heights but 300-325 points are within reach. It does not matter if they finish 2nd as long as they are near the 300 points psychological margin.

When it comes to Public vote I will go against the flow and state that France can score the 175-225 points that will need to contend for the win and my main argument is backed by the numbers. The 50/50 era voting patterns suggest than when an entry is voted by 33+ countries in the Jury vote, it will receive points from a similar number of countries in the Public vote as well, a pattern that secured Switzerland the win last year. 

There are always one or two Jury bait entries that end up in the Public vote Top-6 ( Switzerland/France in '24, Sweden/Italy '23, UK/Sweden '22, France/Switzerland '21, Netherlands '19 etc) and France could easily end up there. There is no reason for this rule not to apply this year and France is my main candidate to secure that spot. A Top-6 spot secures approximately the 175-180 points which are the minimum to stay in contention but I will  be bold in my prediction and state that France will be over the 200 points line.

Pros:

-The big favourite to win the Juries or be at least Top-2 with them and could score a score in the 275-325 region.

- EBU/producers will do anything in their power to boost their chances.

- France has built a momentum with both constituencies getting Top-3 results with both of them.

- The competition is less fierce for the Jury oriented entries and France will not suffer any points dilution or cannibalisation. 

- Louane is a strong/experienced performed to own the song and impress with her vocal abilities.

-Jury oriented entries are setting the tone and win since Semi - Finals changed the voting system to Public vote only.

Cons:

- The Public vote appeal of the entry. There is a possibility that France finishes low Top-10 with the Public and anything worse than 5th and marginally 6th might not be enough to maintain their lead after the Jury vote.

Winning Path:

Jury: 275-325 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-225 pts - 3rd/6th

My take:

I do believe that France will reach the 500 points threshold but my worry is if that threshold will be enough to guarantee the trophy. Anything over 525 will make things tough for then unless they overperform massively with at least one constituency. 

France is the country that has a solid foundation with both constituencies and starts the race with 375-400 guaranteed points that would be enough to be in the Top-3 worst case scenario.

You can read my early thoughts about France here.

The next country and only other country in my Tier-1 is Netherlands. Currently ranked 4th in the Winner's market trading @17, Netherlands had a very quiet pre-rehearsals season trying to avoid the madness and drama of last season.

Netherlands never convinced the market that this is the song, but maybe this is a good sign keeping in mind the variety of countries that marched in the Top with a few exceptions.

Netherlands will be contending for the Jury win along with France and I do have the suspicion that this will be the duo that will make a record for being the first two entries that will reach the 300 points with the Juries in the same year. 

Being close to that threshold will give Netherlands some breathing space and then securing a Top-4 score (225-250 pts) could be enough to keep them in contention and why not hand them the trophy. 

My two co-hosts in Talk About ESC and myself have been the biggest Netherlands supporters and the main reason is that Netherlands has the perfect package to lure points from both constituencies. They have all the boxes ticked for jurors without leaving that sour taste of trying too hard to win or being over fabricated.

The simple structure of the song, Claude's charisma and the storytelling, that I suspect we will see on stage, make Netherlands and Claude the perfect Cinderella story for Eurovision and EBU. 

I mentioned this before and will carry on saying it that Netherlands reflects better, than any other song this year, the psychological state of the Continent that goes through some rough times and needs a glimpse of hope to keep going and Claude offers that hope with his story. 

Netherlands '25 is basically a polished Swedish entry with some heart and without the hate towards the establishment that could work in their favour.

I might sound like the village idiot but Netherlands has all the ingredients to be the highest Jury finisher in the Public vote and go as high as Top-4. 

Pros:

- Netherlands has a path that does not pass through winning a constituency even though they do have a realistically chance to win the Juries. Finishing Top-2 with them but near the 275-300 region is enough for them and then finishing 4th-5th with the Public will guarantee the magic 500 points total.

- Claude is hands down the most charismatic performer of the '25 class and I do suspect that the Dutch staging will be more substance than semblance and that could be their ticket to success.

- Netherlands could be the perfect redemption story after what happened last year.

Cons:

- There is a chance that Netherlands fails to catch fire with the Public and fail to capitalise their strong Jury performance.

Winning Path:

Jury: 250-300 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-250 pts - 3rd-5th

My take:

If there is one entry that the market is still sleeping about that is Netherlands. The main reason for that happening is that the market/fans fail to assess correctly the entries that are Jury oriented but are also capable of creating emotions and are oozing authenticity. They do prefer the louder and more style over substance entries that usually fail to compete and under perform with both constituencies.

Netherlands is a true contender and a lock Top-3 entry because it is the only entry that could/will finish in Top-4 with both constituencies.

You can read my early thoughts about Netherlands here

And that completes my two entries from Tier 1 and moving to Tier 2, there is only one entry.

Now moving to the actual market leader @2.08 currently. KAJ are aiming to win the Public vote and hope/expect that their slick and vocally fine entry will have an appeal on jurors that will not stand on their way.

This is the X factor of the year and the make it or break it element for Sweden's winning chances. 

Assuming that Sweden will be near/slightly over the 300 points mark with the public, they will need to secure 200 points with the Juries which is a stretch. 

In order to feel secure for the win, Sweden will need a score near the 350 points mark which is not a given for three reasons.

1. Sweden traditionally struggles to secure high scores from certain regions.

2. There are too many televote magnets in the area (Finland. Estonia, Norway, Israel) that could dilute their score.

3. 'Bara Bada Bastu' is a great entry but still a novelty one and that might be ok for someone that will enjoy the song that night but will not feel the urge to pick up the phone and vote for it.

The other unknown for Sweden is how the Juries will react to their entry. 150 feels the limit for this type of entries and could add 20-30 points because this is Sweden, but there will be jurors that will blank them and that will affect their score. 

I might be wrong but I fail to see how Sweden can score more than J:175 - PV: 300. They could reach 500 points but not more than that. They are an Estonia catching fire or juries mark them down because of novelty away to end up finishing 3rd.

Pros:

- A locked Top-2 entry in the Public vote near or slightly over the 300 points mark.

- Perfect track record with Juries.

- They are currently leading the market.

Cons:

- There is a possibility that they finish 5th or lower with Juries and that might not be enough to secure the win even if they score 350 points with the Public.

- Sweden has won recently and that could tempt some juries to look for other options and reward other countries that are also aiming for the win.

- The current odds have no value for the risks and unknowns that the Swedish entry carries with them in Basel.

- There is a chance that Sweden has peaked too early before it really matters.

Winning Path:

Jury: 150-200 pts - 4th-6th

Televote: 300-350 pts - 1st-2nd

My take:

Sweden needs to exceed expectations with both constituencies to stay in track for the win regardless of its current price that is very short. For the reasons mentioned above, I do think that Sweden has a path but it will be very tough to pass all the hurdles along the way unharmed. They are the perfect runner-ups that would leave everyone happy, especially if they win the Public vote. 

You can read my early thoughts about Sweden here.

Trust the Process

These are the three countries that have a path for the win in my opinion. They are the only ones that can finish in Top-6 with both constituencies. I do think there will be a close race between the three of them and it is a matter of who will catch fire when it matters. 

When it comes to choosing my winner, apart from my instinct I prefer to trust some tangible numbers that most people don't pay attention to but are the ones that make the difference and hide lots of essential information.

The reasons why I strongly believe that either France or Netherlands will be the Eurovision 2025 winner are:

a. We never had a winner in the 50/50 voting era ('16-'24) so far that managed to receive less than 4 sets of 12 points with the Juries (Italy '21 - 4) while we have had a country that won receiving 0 sets of 12s in the Public vote (Sweden '23), a country that got only 1 (Switzerland '24) and a country that was awarded 2 (Netherlands '19).

France and Netherlands are the only countries that fit that description. 

b. Again in the 50/50 voting era ('16-'24) there is always an entry that finished in Top-3 in the Jury vote that finishes in Top-3 in the Public vote as well. I fail to see Sweden climbing all the way to Jury Top-3, therefore Netherlands is my pick to tick that box as well.

c. With the exception of Ukraine in '22 that scored 192 points with the Juries, we never had a winner that managed to score less than 200 points with a constituency (Italy '21 - 206 J pts the lowest) and again I struggle to see Sweden hitting that mark with the Juries.

d. When a country is voted by a minimum of 33 countries in the Jury vote, it is voted by the same number of countries in the Public vote as well. Sweden does not fit that criterion either while Netherlands and France do. It is the same thing that happened last year with Switzerland and France that ranked 5th and 4th respectively but got voted by all countries and easily passed the 200 points benchmark.

France @13.5 and Netherlands @ 17 currently in the Exchange are my picks for the winner.

Tomorrow I will post my book with the mentioned tips for the Eurovision 2025 and my betting resolution and of course stay tuned for the exciting Talk About Things/ESC Prediction project. A panel of 16 Eurovision market analysts/tipsters/experts predicted the outcome of Eurovision 2025! There will be a special podcast episode and more in depth analysis in the coming days!

Photo: Tim Buiting

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - France

 

maman - Louane

The now or never time has finally come for France, aiming once more for their first win since 1977!

It has been a decade now that France is trying to win, using different recipes and approaches, some times successfully some times not.

This is the year that everything seems to heading to their direction and they have the golden chance to secure their 6th win.

Louane is a very competent artist with some great vocals and a strong staging presence, singing a timeless power ballad about her mother, a topic that touches a chord.

The aim is to win the Juries or be Top-2 with them and use the staging to create the sentiments/call for action for the public.

If France manages to secure a score near the 200 points threshold, I reckon the win is theirs. The 50/50 era voting patterns suggest than when an entry is voted by 33+ countries in the Jury voting then they will receive points from a similar number of countries in the Public vote as well, a pattern that secured Switzerland the win last year. 

Momentum wise, France is the only country that has been in the Top-3 with both constituencies in different years that has not won the Contest yet ( Juries: 3rd/'16, 2nd/'21, 2nd/'24 - PV: 3rd/'21). Last year finished 4th as well with the Public, a good sign for a country that is contending. 

I will add more points to my contenders article that I will publish next, but the resume' is that France in my opinion is/should be the market leader and the song to beat. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

It will all come down to the staging and the hype that will be created after the Semi - Finals. France will either win or finish 3rd. It will depend on who between France and Netherlands will have the biggest appeal with the Public, assuming that these two countries will be leading the Jury voting with a large gap between them and the rest of the field. 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 10/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 44.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

15%-20%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

5th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 250-350 - PV: 150-250 - Tot: 400-600

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does France have the Public vote appeal to secure the win?

You can hear my thoughts about France in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Israel

 

New Day Will Rise - Yuval Raphael

The elephant in the room is back and I do not believe we will have another Rai Semi-Final result leak to give us a heads up, but everyone knows now.

I do reckon that Israel got the memo from EBU and is sending an entry that is good enough to secure a Top-4/5 result but will struggle to find a path for the win.

'NDWR' is a classic ballad with a strong vocalist that has a strong story/narrative. 

Any normal year this would have been an overall Top-10 entry with a Top-5/6 result with the Juries and a mid-table result with the Public.

However, we know that Juries will be very cautious with Israel, trying to balance their Public vote appeal. I do expect a better score than last year but I don't think the Jurors will go all the way so 60-80 points is what I expect. To have a path they will need a minimum of 175 points and that is almost impossible.

And now the million dollar question; how high will the Public vote score be? Last year they scored 300+ points in a very heated year, with a stronger entry and a clear incentive for the diaspora and supporters to vote and make a political statement.

Will the same thing happen again? There is a chance it could but I think 200-250 is what we should be expecting for them in best case scenario.

Last year they forced EBU to take measures and minimise as much as possible their impact in PV with the running order in the Final.

New policies and rules are in place as well to make sure this will not turn into another political battlefield.

Israel and Ukraine are the two no-goes for EBU and for that reason, Israel is a lock Top-4/7 but has no path for victory.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Israel finishing Top-3 in the Semi-Final, then get a first half draw and finish 5th. Juries will be making sure they don't get a victory path.

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

8th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-160

F: J: 40-80 - PV: 150-250 - Tot: 190-330

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries give Israel a path for the win?

You can hear my thoughts about Israel in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Czechia

 

Kiss Kiss Goodbye - ADONXS

There is the notion that Czechia will do well this year and will be a candidate for a Top-10 result.

There have been lots of discussions about the dance break, that has been added to the last minute of the song and whether that adds something to the song.

'KKG' is another example of half-baked entry, having a good initial idea/plan and then mod-way through realise that it gets so repetitive that they had to add the dance break to mask it somehow.

For that reason I do believe that the dance break works but this is not the songs problem.

I had the chance to watch the entry live in London Eurovision Party and was not impressed with the vocals or the choreo, which seems to be the final product.

Czechia is a borderline entry that will fight head to head with Denmark and Luxembourg for the last ticket. 

It is a matter of who performs better that night and stills the show. My concern is that Czechia is one for the fans and not the casual viewers.

If they qualify, I do not think they have enough to break in the Top-10 with any of the two constituencies and for that reason, Top-10 is out of question. A 14th-18th placing feels more natural.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Czechia finishing 10th-11th in the Semi - Final, currently in my non-qualifiers list.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-65

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 30-50 - Tot: 50-100

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Czechia: A borderline qualifier or a bust?

You can hear my thoughts about Czechia in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Croatia

 

Poison Cake - Marko Bosnjak

Croatia '25 is one of the biggest downgrades in the modern Eurovision history going from finishing 2nd to the Final straight to Bottom-3 if not last in the Semi-Final.

'Poison Cake' won Dora '25 in a very unconventional way, winning Juries!!! and finishing 4th in the Public vote, which is never good news for an entry in a Eurovision Semi-Final.

The fact that they opted for a Bambie Thug rip off when they had Baby Lasagna's blueprint still puzzles me!

Marko was shaky at times in Dora as well and I struggle to find something positive to say about this entry.

They might get some points from Slovenia but I doubt there will be someone else to take a bite from their 'Poison Song'...

I hope this year's result to awaken their broadcaster and makensome changes in their jurors selection process...

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Croatia closing their Public vote magnet trilogy, missing qualification and opening a new circle in their Eurovision journey. Will be impressed if they can escape Bottom-3.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 17/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

None

Best case scenario:

23rd

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-30

F: J: 10-25 - PV: 25-30 - Tot: 35-55

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Croatia the weakest entry in the Eurovision '25 line-up?

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Norway

 

Lighter - Kyle Alessandro

Norway deserves my respect for what they have done this year in MGP.

They had a mediocre line-up but managed to upgrade the only half-decent song they had in the studio version into a most certain qualifier to the Final.

'Lighter' is a generic dance track that we have listened hundreds of times that somehow became serviceable thanks to Kyle Alessandro's charisma on stage. This is the type of entries that thrive in a Public vote only Semi-Final before they get completely lost in the Final. 

I think that Norway is an almost certain qualifier, but they have not checked their ticket yet. If the latter happens though, I struggle to find a way Norway could avoid Bottom-5, with an entry that will be near the bottom with Juries and coming from a Public vote saturated region that has better packages to offer.

I would not be surprised if Norway could finish last for a second year in a row and that will be one of my fun bets when the market opens.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway making it to the Final and then fight head to head with Spain to avoid the last place.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 24/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-60

F: J: 5-15 - PV: 10-35 - Tot: 15-50

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Norway a lock for the Final?

You can hear my thoughts about Norway in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Latvia

 

Bur Man Laimi - Tautumeitas

If there is one country in the Eurovision '25 line-up that self-sabotaged themselves so badly that is Latvia.

They had at least three other songs that could have secured qualification and a decent result.

Instead they have decided to take the path of virtue that will not carry them too far...

'Bur Man Laimi' is a novelty/experimental entry based on the harmonies of the six girls but fails to grab the attention of the audience.

This is a song that is not competitive at all and is my favourite to finish last in the Semi - Final. Latvia's recent results point to that direction as well.

It is interesting to have this type of genres/entries in Eurovision but result-wise is counter productive as they have no impact on a 100% PV Semi - Final. 

This is a lost opportunity for Latvia to build on last year's result and create a qualifying streak instead of returning back to their introversion state.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia, unfortunately, finishing last in the Semi - Final.

Televoting Potential: 3/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 26/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.003%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-35

F: J: 15-50 - PV: 5-20 - Tot: 20-70

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there a qualification path for Latvia?

You can hear my thoughts about Latvia in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Spotify

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Cyprus

 

Shh - Theo Evan

Producers have intrigued us giving Cyprus the pimp slot in Semi - Final 1, implying that there are some big plans around their staging.

Maybe this is the secret the song is talking about...

'Shh' is the product of a writer's camp with many 'usual suspects' involved in the production. This is reassuring regarding their qualifying chances with a team that has been there and done it before. The problem is that the public might get the feeling that this is Eurovision by numbers and they might be right.

Cyprus continues their school of entries that go under the radar during the pre-rehearsals only to come alive on stage during the week. Having Serjio Jaén on board is a good sign of their ambition to surprise us.

The main issue so far and the factor that will decide Cyprus' fate this year is Theo's vocal abilities and stage presence. The falsetto voice is not everyone's cup of tea and he might struggle to pull the whole song off. In that case the qualification will become a head to head battle versus Belgium and the best man will qualify.

For the moment I do consider Cyprus a certain qualifier and the pimp slot (13 Qs the current PV streak) makes sure that they will make it.

In the Final, I do expect a mid-table result scoring consistently with both constituencies and if they get a favourable draw and they nail the staging, Cyprus could contend for a spot in the Top-10. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cyprus qualifying and then secure a score close or just over the three digits to finish in the left hand-side of the scoreboard, 12th-13th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

8th-10th

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 50-100- Tot: 70-150

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Should we consider Cyprus a Top-10 contender?

You can hear my thoughts about Cyprus in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Switzerland

 

Voyage - Zoë Më

Switzerland has finally made it but the recipe for success has not changed. They have focused on carving a path for victory through the Juries, having won the vote twice ('21, '24) and they are not looking back.

'Voyage' is their fifth consecutive entry that will be focusing in getting the most out of that constituency. It is a beautiful ballad that with an ethereal staging could be as high as Top-3/5. For the moment I do believe that the Top-10 there is secured.

The Public vote is a different story though. Switzerland got lucky with their draw and they will be performing at #19 which could boost their televote score a bit. The problem is that this type of entries usually score in the 0-25 points region and Switzerland will be suffering from the 'Host syndrome' as well. 

 Zoë is an excellent vocalist and that could help Switzerland's cause. If they manage to secure that Top-5 spot with the Juries, then they could finish in the overall Top-10 even with 0 Public vote points which feels very harsh though. 

Either way, Switzerland got what they deserved last year and any result in Eurovision '25 will not matter. 

However, they should be in the Top-10 this year as well and they do have a decent chance succeeding

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Switzerland finishing in Top-5 with the Juries and get 15-20 Public vote points that secures them the 10th place

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 35.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 0.5%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 125-250 - PV: 20-50 - Tot: 145-300

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Switzerland a solid Jury vote Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Switzerland in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Armenia

 

Survivor - Parg

One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.

'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...

The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.

But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.

Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only)  for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9). 

Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.

The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

17th-20th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?

You can hear my thoughts about Armenia in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Sweden

 

Bara Bada Bastu - KAJ

A Revolution happened indeed in Melfest '25 and KAJ will be the ones representing Sweden in Eurovision.

'Bara Bada Bastu' is the definition of a 'joke' entry tailored-made to have an appeal with all Eurovision demographics, being funny and slick enough to keep everyone happy and no-one  offended.

I do consider it a lock Top-2 with the Public vote, but I have not decided yet if it is the type of entry that could reach or surpass the 300 points threshold or it will have a Norway '19, Serbia '22 result. 

The main argument for my indecisiveness is that there many public vote magnets in its region (Finland, Estonia, even Norway) that would do not guarantee all the 12s and maybe some 10s there.

Additionally, I am not 100% certain that it will have the same appeal in some parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. It will get points there for sure but maybe not all will be top marks.

And finally, the most important reason of all. Sweden has branded themselves as a Jury oriented country and struggles traditionally with the Public. They have not received a single set of 12 Public vote points in the 20's despite having won and finished 4th in that span. 

For all these reasons a 250-290 points score feels closer to reality than a 325+ points score.

The hit or miss point for Sweden will be their jury appeal, where they will need to score a minimum of 175 points to keep themselves in contention without hoping for an abnormal Televote score.

The staging and vocals are there and jurors should be able to acknowledge and award them for that. They are a powerhouse as well and know all the tricks to get the points they need. The song is not divisive or aggressive to force jurors to blank them but there is still some uncertainty whether Juries will underestimate its artistic merit and treat it as joke that cannot award. 

I feel more comfortable estimating their Jury score in the 125-150 points region and I fear that this will not be enough to secure them the win.

They can still overperform with both constituencies but for the moment I prefer to take a more cautious approach.

I am 100% certain though that Sweden will finish in the Top-3 no matter what.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sweden finishing Top-2 with the Public vote but coming a bit short with the Juries and finishing 3rd overall.

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

10% - 20%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

4th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-175

F: J: 100-175 - PV: 225-300 - Tot: 325-475

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Sweden winning Eurovision the Finnish way?...

You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Portugal

 

Deslocado - NAPA

Portugal's Renaissance in Eurovision circle is taking a break this year in terms of successful results.

I do think that they missed the plot at one point during their national final with the jurors trying really hard to sabotage any entry that had some/any public vote potential.

As a result NAPA will represent Portugal this year, despite finishing 2nd in the Public vote and 4th with the Juries in Festival da Canção.

'Deslocadoº is about people leaving their homeland to go and live elsewhere and expresses their sorrows and nostalgia for back home. A universal message for sure but most probably will go unnoticed by the international audience.

In a 50-50 Semi - Final this entry could have been a surprise qualifier but I doubt they will have any luck now that they are performing right after Sweden. 

They will heavily rely on their diaspora to collect any points and they might get a few from countries like Spain, Switzerland but I am not confident that these will be high marks to reach the qualification threshold and let's not forget that Portugal traditionally struggles with the Public vote.

If a miracle happens and they qualify, they will get a few Jury points just to avoid Bottom-3.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Portugal finishing near the bottom of the Semi - Final receiving 15-20 points in total.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 27/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-50

F: J: 20-45 - PV: 5-25 - Tot: 25-70

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Portugal doomed or their diaspora will pull a miracle to save them?

You can hear my thoughts about Portugal in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - San Marino

 

Tutta l'Italia - Gabry Ponte

There is not too much to comment on San Marino. I have to give them their flowers for their Machiavellian structured national final that takes turns on selecting either a big Italian name or an artist from abroad just to justify the fees they are charging for the foreigners to apply.

Gabry Ponte will be their representative, trying to bring some spark from San Remo, where Tutta l'Italia was the unofficial gig of the festival.

The problem is that San Remo wisely used these juicy 10-15 seconds of the song that are actually uplifting and super catchy but the rest of the song is uninspiring at least and render the song a very long 3 minutes.

Additionally, a Eurovision entry staged with the DJ being the centre of attention has not worked very well and this is an extra reason to be cautious with San Marino's qualification odds. The last attempt of this genre was Austria '22 that failed spectacularly to qualify even though it was considered one of the favourites and Gabry Ponte was the writer of that entry...

Another fact to keep in mind is that we have 3 Italian entries in the Semi - Final (Italy, San Marino, Estonia) and this is the weakest of all. 

There is still hope for San Marino to secure qualification but I would be very cautious with its odds. If they make it to the Final, 'Tutta l'Italia' is the main contender to finish last in the Jury vote and very close to the bottom, if not last place.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

San Marino is the definition of a borderline entry but my gut says that this does not have enough to secure qualification and might not even be close enough to that threshold. 13th in the Semi - Final.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 3/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 17.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.000001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 15-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 20-50

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could a 15-seconds song have enough traction to secure qualification?

You can hear my thoughts about San Marino in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Serbia

  

Mila - Princ

If there is one nation that is very stable in what they are delivering in Eurovision Semi-Finals that is Serbia.

The grand majority of their qualifications came finishing 8th-10th. They got the last ticket in their previous two attempts and they might go for a third time lucky this year.

'Mila' is the definition of a classic Balkan ballad, that feels a bit outdated but is performed exceptionally by Princ. Serbia will be in the second half of Semi - Final 2, where there are only two male artists (Princ, Adonxs) and many up-tempo entries. With the majorities of the other slow-tempo entries on the other half, they do have the best possible draw to maximize their chances for qualification.

Serbia has also a guaranteed head start of 18-24 points coming from Montenegro and Austria alone and it will not be difficult for them to find 20-30 points more to secure qualification.

Being in the Final, does give them an extra boost with the Jury score, assuming that Serbia will be near or inside the Top-10 because of the song's nature and some friendly Juries. 

The Public vote appeal is dubious but that's what the friends are for and the ex-Yugoslavs with the addition of Austria and Switzerland will be enough to secure anything between 30-50 points that could be enough for a left hand side result. 

If their Jury score reaches the 80-100 points threshold, Serbia might have a decent chance to finish in Top-10. If they fail to catch fire a classic 15th-20th result will be waiting for them. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Serbia will qualify to the Final, finishing higher than 10th and then get a middle table score with the Juries and Public vote, with enough points to finish 13th. 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result

Worst case scenario:

NQ 

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

F: J: 60-120 - PV: 25-60 - Tot: 85-185

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Serbia miss the Final for the first time since 2017?

You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Austria

 

Wasted Love - JJ

Austria has one of the most intriguing entries of the year and it will be a case study that will either put the pop-opera genre to sleep once and for all or it will revive it again.

'Wasted Love' is a classic specimen of pop-opera performed by JJ, a countertenor with some talent show experience. The first minute does build nicely but then the song barely progresses until we reach the final minute where pop-opera meets a techno/trance build up to further highlight JJ's vocal abilities (at least in the studio version). The song's only purpose is to become a vessel so JJ can showcase his voice and this has not worked most of the times in Eurovision.

Austria is currently leading the odds in the Winner's market @3.50, a price that is based on the assumption that they will landslide the Jury vote and will finish in Top-4/5 with the Public vote.

I do believe that the current odds are unrealistic and are criminally overpriced.

Austria has a very narrow path to win Eurovision. They will need 275-300 points in the Jury vote, preferably closer to 300, and then get at least 200 points in the Public vote, but neither of the two constitutions is guaranteed for them. 

They need to achieve these numbers and at the same time Sweden must underperform with Juries or must not catch fire in the Public vote or both. Additionally, they will need France to finish lower with the Juries and be very close or lower with the Televote. 

The chance that all the above mentioned possibilities happen at the same time is very thin and this is the main reason I do not think that Austria could be the Eurovision winner. I highly doubt that Austria can win Juries or even score 250+ points with them and their Cinderella story will end mid-way through the voting. But even if they score the magical 275+ points, I struggle to find a path for them with the Public vote. They will need a minimum of 200 points and this is where the historical data with the performance of pop-opera entries kick in.

Pop-opera has traditionally struggled big time in Eurovision and this is not the first time a pop-opera entry is considered a favourite.

Back in 2011 France was trading as low as 2.50-2.70 the day of the Final to end up finishing 15th! In 2015 Italy has sent Il Volo with 'Grande Amore', the only pop-opera entry that came close to winning, achieving a remarkable Public vote result (386pts - 1st) but finished just 6th with the Juries (171pts). With the 50/50 system they would have finished 2nd behind Sweden but with a 95 point deficit. And their odds were somewhere between 4.00-6.00.

Estonia in 2018 ('La Forza') was also considered a contender trading as low as 6.00 and was Top-4 in the odds for most part of the season. It finished 8th (6th with Juries, 9th with Public vote). A year later, Australia tried to follow the same recipe sending 'Zero Gravity', an entry that went under the radar pre-rehearsals trading at 200s and then caught fire and traded as low as 8.00. Another underwhelming pop-opera result finishing 9th (6th with Juries and 7th with the Public).

The main reason why pop-opera is a hit and miss is that the genre is not everyone's cup of tea. There will be jurors that will blank it and audience that will not vote for it. Having a great voice/impressive vocal abilities does not guarantee anything and most of the times these songs are perceived as show-offs or pretentious and fail to connect. But for some reason there is this notion that pop-opera is quality and especially Juries will bite and vote for it hence the single digit odds and favouritism throughout the years.

Add to all that the statements from the Austrian broadcaster about a staging that we have never seen before and the red flags are multiplied with the addition of the videoclip syndrome (entries that look/feel better on the music video but fail to bring/recreate the same concept/atmosphere on stage). Austria's recipe for success feels a bit forced/non-organic/Eurovision by numbers and this is the reason why I think it is not a winner and feels more like a wannabe/false contender.

Could Austria and JJ deliver a performance that will be mentioned for ages and will win Eurovision? It is a possibility, but for all the reasons I mentioned above, I believe it is safer to consider it an entry that could finish 5th-8th and with the perfect storm aim for a bit higher.

I will have an open mind for rehearsals but I doubt that Austria will crack Top-3.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Austria failing to finish in the Jury Top-3 and Public vote Top-5 and end-up 6th-8th overall carrying the torch for pop-opera songs that did not live up to expectations...

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

2% - 4%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

Missing Top-10

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

F: J: 125-200 - PV: 100-175 - Tot: 225-375

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does Austria have 'The Package' that could secure them the win?

You can hear my thoughts about Austria in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Denmark

 

Hallucination - Sissal

Has the time come for Denmark's first qualification for the final in the '20s? 

DMGP  might have had a better option in my opinion in Adel the Second.

The Danes have opted for Sissal, a strong vocalist and remains to be seen if they were collectively hallucinating when they were voting for her or if their entry does stand a chance to qualify. 

'Hallucination' is stronger in its studio version and the staging in DMGP lacked the energy and the movement to lift it. A dance track with a static performer will definitely struggle in Eurovision and this might be the deciding factor regarding its qualification chances.

I do believe that EBU/producers will try to help Denmark that now holds the second  longest non-qualification streak (4 NQs) and I would not be surprised if Sissal is the artist that will be closing Semi - Final 2 instead of Finland or Malta. 

Assuming that we will have 6 countries qualifying from the second half and Georgia is a certain non-qualifier, Denmark needs to beat any of Czechia, Serbia and hoping that there will be no surprise from the first half. 

I do have Denmark in my borderline list, currently leaning towards qualification but they will need to come up with a better, more powerful staging keeping also in mind that Finland, Malta, Luxembourg and Israel (all female performers) are in the same half and could hurt Sissal's chances.

If in the Final, Denmark is destined to get lost in the crowd and with a handful of stronger entries from the same region, avoiding a Bottom-5 finish will be the main focus.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Denmark finishing 10th or 11th making it or missing the Final for a couple of points. If in the Final, they will get a few low scores from their region enough to avoid finishing in Bottom-3.

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 33/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ 

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-65

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40- Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Denmark closer than ever to their first qualification to the Final since 2019?

You can hear my thoughts about Denmark in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Ukraine

 

Bird of pray - Ziferblat

I believe this is the year that the inflated Ukrainian public vote numbers are returning to normality. Ukrainian diaspora and a few friends will always be there to support them and it remains to be seen how loyal the diaspora is when their country is sending a non-competitive entry.

Vidbir '25 has been underwhelming which might not be a coincidence after what happened last year in Eurovision and the treatment that Ukraine had from EBU, that used the running order in the Final to make clear that Ukraine winning is not something they are looking forward to.

Ukraine might have decided to tone it down a bit and experiment sending an entry that has an artistic merit but is not suitable for a Contest environment. But if there is one country that could get every inch of potential out of their entry with the staging that is Ukraine.

Ziferblat reminds me of Lake Malawi and I expect from them a similar result reversing the Jury score with the Public vote one. I expect Juries to be more hesitant voting for them and I still expect them to reach a three digit number with the Public vote that could secure them the Top-10. If 'Bird of pray' was representing any other country its place would have been somewhere between 18th-24th. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is Ukraine we are talking about and qualification should not be an issue. Making it to the final and then heavily boosted by the Ukrainian diaspora, Ukraine will make a run to secure the Top-10. Currently have them 9th-11th. 

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

7th-8th

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 50-75

F: J: 25-75 - PV: 80-120 - Tot: 105-195

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there an actual chance for Ukraine to finish out of the Top-10 for the first time since 2018?

You can hear my thoughts about Ukraine in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Albania

 

Zjerm - Shkodra Elektronike

I have waited for a while before posting Albania's review just to make sure that my enthusiasm and bias will settle down. 

'Zjerm' is my personal favourite entry for the season and coming from a nation that has not had great success in Eurovision makes things more complicated. I will try to be as much objective as possible but you have been warned. 

I loved the entry since its audio release before Festival I Kenges and never looked back. It is an interesting mix of electro/dance music with traditional music instruments that manages to blend them nicely offering an authentic and filling experience. 

The song progresses nicely after grabbing your attention from the very first second and Beatrice is a true performer. The break in the middle with Kole's lyrics does add to the song's value but it is very clear that Kole does not feel 100% comfortable and this is something that needs to be addressed for Eurovision.

I do have the suspicion that Albania could have an impact with both constituencies, ticking boxes and oozing authenticity. Albania by numbers has a secured amount of points coming from diaspora and friends (50-80) and adding 20-30 points with each constituency might be enough to secure them the Top-10 place that they have been missing for 13 years! This is the first Albanian entry after a very long time that will be getting points in Public vote outside of their diaspora deservedly.

In my opinion, the actual result does not matter that much for Albania because this is the kind of entries they should be sending to Eurovision, representing their culture and tradition but showing some ambition as well. 

I do believe that Albania has a unique chance to create some hype after the Semi - Final and fight/contend for a spot in the Top-5 but this might be a tough ask for them. I believe they will land somewhere in the middle being 8th-10th. 

 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Albania cruising to the Final and most probably cracks the Top-5 in the Semi - Final. The hype will get traction and Albania will secure its first Top-10 result since 2012 finishing 8th-10th. I will not be surprised if they finish in Top-10 with both constituencies. 

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 42/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 75-105

F: J: 75-100 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 150-225

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Albania capable of pulling a 'Shum' and crack the Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Albania in the 1st episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify