The judgement day has finally arrived and tonight the big guns will have to put every card on the table. With Semi-Final 1 shaping up to be comfortably the weakest Semi of the last decade, the spotlight shifts almost entirely towards one question: who leaves tonight with the momentum — Greece or Finland?
For the first time in months, Finland’s grip at the top of the market looks slightly vulnerable.
Yesterday belonged to Greece.
The Greek delegation finally unveiled the full staging concept and the reaction across the arena, fandom and betting markets was immediate. Akylas and Fokas have delivered a performance that feels less like a Eurovision entry and more like a three-minute cinematic experience, divided into chapters and packed with visual moments.
The market reacted aggressively. Greece opened yesterday around 7.00 to win Eurovision, crashed into the 3.65 range during the evening and eventually stabilised around 4.00-4.20.
That kind of move is never accidental.
The key question now is whether Greece can fully steal the narrative tonight after the Semi-Final result. Momentum matters enormously in Eurovision betting and this feels like the first genuine attack on Finland’s long-standing position at the top.
Finland, to their credit, remain extremely solid. The performance works, the audience is fully engaged and they still possess the cleanest televote package in the competition. However, for the first time in three months, we have finally seen the market blink.
Finland drifted from the 2.10-2.20 region into 2.50-2.60 after rehearsals, a sign that traders are starting to question whether this is still a runaway favourite or simply the market leader in a very open year.
Thursday could complicate matters even further if France and Australia land properly.
The other major winner from yesterday was Moldova. The fandom has finally jumped on a train that sharp bettors boarded weeks ago. Moldova’s Top-10 odds have collapsed from the 3.25-3.50 range into 1.80 and that move feels entirely justified.
This has comfortably been my strongest pre-rehearsal position of the season.
The televote ceiling is massive and in a weak Semi-Final they suddenly have a realistic path towards a Top-3 finish tonight.
There will be plenty of time after the show to dissect the winners, losers and market overreactions, but for now it is time for the traditional Semi-Final 1 projection.
1. Greece
Jury: 110-125
Televote: 130-145
Total: 240-270
Akylas delivers vocally, Fokas once again proves why he remains one of Eurovision’s elite staging minds and Greece suddenly feels like the entry everyone will be talking about after tonight.
This is not simply “artsy” Eurovision. It is accessible, emotional and visually memorable while still offering enough sophistication for juries to reward it heavily.
The final minute in particular feels tailor-made for jury appeal.
The Semi draw is also favourable, with enough allies to support both voting components. Greece to win Semi-Final 1 around 4.10 looks like clear betting value.
2. Finland
Jury: 120-130
Televote: 100-110
Total: 220-240
No real concerns for Finland.
The performance lands exactly as expected and the crowd response remains huge. However, yesterday’s audience poll — where they surprisingly finished behind Moldova among a heavily western crowd — is at least worth monitoring.
Tonight’s scoreboard will tell us far more.
The issue from a betting perspective is purely price-related. Finland winning the Semi around 1.91 offers very little value considering the growing competition around them.
3. Moldova
Jury: 75-85
Televote: 120-130
Total: 195-215
Can Moldova overtake Israel and sneak into the Top-3?
I believe they can.
Israel traditionally overperforms in western televoting markets but their eastern support historically has not been nearly as dominant, opening the door for Moldova to capitalise in this specific Semi.
Moldova now looks extremely well positioned for a Top-10 finish in the Final and potentially even a Top-5 televote result overall.
Liquidity remains poor in the speciality markets, but anything above 2.50-2.75 for Moldova Top-3 tonight still looks playable.
4. Israel
Jury: 55-65
Televote: 105-115
Total: 160-180
The growing attempts to control or suppress Israel’s televote narrative feel mistimed and potentially counterproductive.
If anything, making Israel the central talking point only increases public mobilisation.
The more interesting question tonight concerns the juries. In a Semi-Final environment where qualification is relatively safe, jurors may feel freer to score this entry naturally without broader strategic considerations.
The Semi mix is not especially friendly though, which could leave Israel vulnerable to a lower-than-expected placement.
5. Croatia
Jury: 50-65
Televote: 80-100
Total: 130-165
This was an entry I was looking to oppose ever since Dora, but the delegation has improved steadily throughout the season.
The girls are performing better with every rehearsal and the staging adds the extra impact the package needed.
Qualification looks comfortable and the bigger question now is whether Croatia can build enough late momentum to threaten the Final Top-10.
6. Sweden
Jury: 70-80
Televote: 45-55
Total: 115-135
Sweden are fortunate to be competing in this particular Semi-Final because a stronger draw could have created genuine danger.
This entry feels heavily “Melodifestivalen-coded” — something that works domestically but loses impact on the Eurovision stage.
Felicia’s personal story resonates in Sweden, but internationally the styling choices, mask concept and dark staging create unnecessary barriers for viewers and juries alike.
The market has finally started adjusting. A Top-10 finish in the Final now feels increasingly unrealistic, especially with Finland and Denmark offering much stronger overall packages.
My average lay at 1.64 remains one of my best positions of the year. The market now trades around 2.08.
7. Poland
Jury: 65-75
Televote: 40-50
Total: 105-125
Potentially the biggest grower of the Semi.
My main concern pre-rehearsals was Poland’s historic jury weakness, particularly with a jury-oriented entry. However, the staging has elevated the package considerably and qualification now feels more likely than not.
Still not fully safe — but definitely moving towards qualification territory.
8. Serbia
Jury: 35-45
Televote: 50-60
Total: 85-105
We have officially entered the danger zone.
Serbia traditionally thrives in borderline qualification scenarios and there are enough regional connections here — particularly Croatia and Montenegro — to provide a foundation in the televote.
At the same time, this absolutely could miss out.
There may be slight value opposing Serbia, but this is not a market I am eager to attack.
9. Estonia
Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105
Another genuine coinflip.
The running order helps and credibility matters enormously in the chaotic second half of this Semi. Estonia at least feels professional and coherent, which could prove decisive.
Lithuania, Finland and Sweden also provide useful voting connections.
I backed Estonia pre-rehearsals above 2.50 and the market now trades around 3.20. The more interesting angle might actually be Top Baltic Entry at 6.00-7.00, which still retains value even if qualification is missed.
10. San Marino
Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105
Every second year I find myself chasing a San Marino qualification ticket. Previous attempts came in 2022 and 2024.
Could this finally be the year?
Pre-rehearsals I had San Marino dead last in my rankings, but the staging has transformed the entry entirely. Boy George’s involvement feels deliberately designed to generate commentator buzz and casual audience attention.
If San Marino can activate their traditional “jury dark arts” through countries like Greece, Montenegro and Italy, qualification around 4.70 is worth the gamble.
A bet I am always happy to lose.
11. Portugal
Jury: 45-55
Televote: 15-25
Total: 60-80
The return of juries to the Semi-Finals theoretically keeps Portugal alive, but I still struggle to construct a realistic qualification path.
This is an entry almost entirely dependent on jury support and even there, I am not convinced the ceiling is high enough. To qualify comfortably, Portugal probably needs a Top-5 or Top-6 jury result and I simply do not see enough standout moments for that to happen.
The televote outlook is weak, the running order does not help and the overall pace of the Semi could leave this entry completely exposed.
I would not be shocked if Portugal sneaks through, but from a betting perspective I cannot find any value in the current qualification price.
12. Lithuania
Jury: 25-35
Televote: 30-40
Total: 55-75
This is where the maths start becoming very uncomfortable.
Lithuania is traditionally a weak jury nation, lacks meaningful voting allies in this Semi outside Estonia and Poland and does not benefit from any significant diaspora presence tonight.
Then there is the performance itself.
Vocally, the jury rehearsal was reportedly rough and this is not the type of entry that can survive weak vocals in front of jurors. Add the alien-inspired styling and inaccessible presentation and suddenly the qualification price looks completely disconnected from reality.
Trading around 1.50 to qualify makes absolutely no sense to me.
Lithuania not to qualify at 3.00 is, in my opinion, the standout value bet of Semi-Final 1.
13. Montenegro
Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75
Can neighbours and hardcore fans drag Montenegro across the line?
Possibly — but I remain highly sceptical.
The delegation has staged this entry in an oddly aggressive way, trying so hard to create impact that they may have alienated both jurors and casual viewers in the process.
This feels like a classic fandom bubble entry. Eurovision fans may appreciate the chaos and intensity, but regular viewers often react very differently.
Tonight will be a fascinating test of how influential the fanbase really is in Semi-Final voting.
I have included Montenegro in several non-qualification combo bets alongside Belgium and Georgia.
14. Belgium
Jury: 30-45
Televote: 15-25
Total: 45-70
At this stage there is very little left to analyse.
Belgium simply never recovered from the rehearsal week and the entry now feels completely devoid of momentum. Neither the staging nor the live performance elevated the package and in a televote-heavy environment this becomes extremely dangerous.
The juries may throw a few respectable scores their way, but the televote ceiling looks alarmingly low.
There is still some value including Belgium in non-qualification combinations and that remains the only angle I would consider betting-wise.
15. Georgia
Jury: 10-25
Televote: 15-25
Total: 25-50
Georgia once again feels like a delegation that misunderstood the assignment entirely.
Almost every creative decision surrounding this entry has worked against its qualification chances. The staging lacks identity, the performance feels disconnected and there is no clear televote hook for casual viewers to latch onto.
In a stronger Semi this would have been completely dead on arrival and even in this weaker lineup it still looks comfortably headed for another non-qualification.
At this point, avoiding last place might be the more realistic objective.
Betting Time
If I was entering the market fresh today, these would be the three positions I would want in my book.
Greece to win SF1 — 25 units @ 4.10
San Marino to qualify — 25 units @ 4.70
Lithuania not to qualify — 50 units @ 3.00
As always, I will follow the traditional format of 100 units per Semi and 800 units reserved for the Final.
Good luck with your bets tonight and keep the conversation going on social media.
