Eurovision Bets & Pieces: Predictions, Lessons and Resolutions for Eurovision 2027

Welcome to the second part of Eurovision Bets & Pieces’ resolutions!

How have I performed with my predictions and analyses of the Eurovision Grand Finals? What have I learned throughout the years, and what am I willing to change ahead of the Eurovision 2027 season?

It's time to look back at the numbers, revisit some of my biggest successes and failures, and set some new targets for the season ahead.

Winners: 3/7 — Keeping the Bigger Picture in Mind

My winner predictions on the day of each Grand Final were:

Year	My predicted winner
2019	Netherlands
2021	Italy
2022	Italy
2023	Sweden
2024	Croatia
2025	France
2026	Australia

That's 3/7 correct calls. Not a particularly impressive record on its own.

France 2025 was by far my biggest miss. The same could be said about Italy in 2022, not because Italy finished sixth, but because I failed to identify Ukraine as the winner.

In my defence, Ukraine in 2022 and Switzerland in 2024 were both second in my predictions and were mentioned as potential winners. The same can be said about Bulgaria last year, which ranked third in my projections. I considered Bulgaria a genuine contender and tipped them to win as well.

That leaves Austria in 2025, which I had ranked fourth. It remains the lowest-ranked country in my predictions to actually win the contest.

This was also my most controversial call, and I still believe Austria managed to escape with the victory because a series of unfortunate events weakened the other favourites and front-runners, while Austria was the only country that did not suffer the same fate.

My prediction for the winner's path was not wrong: a jury winner scoring below 300 points, followed by a public vote in which the entry would collect mostly 4s, 6s and 8s from the majority of participating countries.

Five blanks in the jury vote and zero sets of 12 points in the public vote proved my point.

For additional context, Bulgaria last year received 54 fewer jury points than Austria, despite having two fewer countries voting, but was blanked by fewer countries than Austria.

Sometimes you play well and lose. Other times, you play badly and win. For me, that explains Austria and Eurovision 2025 in general.

Another thing you may have noticed is that I have generally avoided making the market favourite my predicted winner. I had Sweden second in 2025 and Finland fourth last year, despite both trading at odds of 1.65–1.90 on Grand Final day.

Although this article is not about betting odds, they always have an anchoring effect on predictions made on the day of the contest.

To put things into perspective, someone placing 1,000 units on Finland on Grand Final day would have received 1,800 units in return. To get the same return with Bulgaria, you needed to invest just 56 units that same morning.

My incorrect winner predictions finished as follows:

• Italy 2022 — 6th
• Croatia 2024 — 2nd
• France 2025 — 7th
• Australia 2026 — 4th

The lesson for Eurovision 2027: When predicting the winner, I need to keep the bigger picture in mind rather than becoming too focused on individual indicators or the market narrative.

Top 3: My Achilles' Heel

My record in this category was remarkably stable for years, correctly predicting two of the three podium finishers in every edition from 2019 to 2024.

Then came 2025, when I failed to predict a single country in the Top 3. Last year, Bulgaria was my only correct call.

Here are my predictions through the years:

Year	1st	2nd	3rd
2019	Netherlands	Switzerland	Italy
2021	Italy	Malta	Switzerland
2022	Italy	Ukraine	Spain
2023	Sweden	Israel	Spain
2024	Croatia	Switzerland	Israel
2025	France	Sweden	Netherlands
2026	Australia	Greece	Bulgaria

Correct calls: 11/21 — 52.4%

Seven of my missed predictions still finished relatively close to the podium:

• Three finished 4th: Switzerland 2019, Sweden 2025 and Australia 2026.
• One finished 5th: Israel 2024.
• One finished 6th: Italy 2022.
• Two finished 7th: Malta 2021 and France 2025.

Then there are three predictions that went completely off track: Greece 2026, which finished 10th; the Netherlands 2025, which finished 12th; and Spain 2023, which finished 17th.

The devil is in the details. With the exception of Russia in 2019, which I had ranked seventh, most of the other actual Top-3 finishers were ranked fourth or fifth in my projections.

And here's another interesting pattern: for three consecutive years, and four times in the last five editions, the country I ranked fifth went on to finish in the Top 3.

Those countries were the UK in 2022, Ukraine in 2024, Estonia in 2025 and Israel in 2026.

The goal for Eurovision 2027 is to get back on track and achieve the first 3/3!

Top 5: Hitting the Bullseye

Now we're talking business!

I correctly predicted three of the Top 5 finishers in three editions, and four of the Top 5 in three other editions. In 2024 I predicted all five of the Top 5. My record in this category is one of the strongest parts of my Grand Final analysis.

This is also where most of the corrections happen. In 2025, for example, my 0/3 Top-3 record turned into three correct Top-5 predictions, thanks to having Austria fourth and Estonia fifth, while Sweden finished slightly lower than I had expected.

The same story repeated itself last year, when one correct Top-3 prediction turned into three correct Top-5 calls.

Here are my predictions for fourth and fifth place:

Year	4th	5th
2019	Azerbaijan	Australia
2021	Ukraine	France
2022	Sweden	UK
2023	Finland	Norway
2024	France	Ukraine
2025	Austria	Estonia
2026	Finland	Israel

Correct calls: 26/35 — 74.3%

There are some interesting findings when looking at both positions.

My predictions become more reliable when it comes to this range of the scoreboard. The worst result for a country I predicted to finish fourth was Azerbaijan in 2019, which ended up eighth. There is also a winner in this category: Austria in 2025.

The most impressive statistic, however, comes from my predicted fifth-place finishers.

Three of them actually finished second: France in 2021, the UK in 2022 and Israel in 2026.

Two more finished third: Ukraine in 2024 and Estonia in 2025.

The lowest finish among my predicted fifth-place entries was Australia's ninth place in 2019.

In other words, my predictions around the fourth-to-fifth-place range have repeatedly identified countries with considerably higher finishing potential.

Top 10: Reaching for the Stars

Let's start with the lows.

I correctly predicted seven of the Top 10 finishers in three editions: 2019, 2023 and 2025. I got eight correct in 2022 and 2024, while my personal best came in 2021 and 2026, with nine correct calls.

Had I swapped France, which I projected 10th, with Denmark, projected 11th, last year, I would have achieved the ultimate 10/10!

Correct calls: 53/70 — 75.7%

There are a couple of interesting findings here.

Five of the seven countries I ranked 11th actually finished in the Top 10. The same happened to three of the seven countries I ranked 12th.

That means eight additional countries were just outside my predicted Top 10, despite eventually making it into the actual Top 10. These near misses show how much room there is for improvement in identifying the final qualifiers for that group.

Out of the 17 missed calls, only eight countries finished on the right-hand side of the scoreboard, in 14th place or lower.

Six of those eight misses came in just two editions:

• 2019: Serbia, Belarus and Greece.
• 2023: Spain, France and Armenia.

Looking at the bigger picture, my Top-10 predictions have generally been heading in the right direction.

There are only four cases in which a country finished 10th or lower despite being ranked in my Top 6: the Netherlands in 2022, Spain in 2023, the Netherlands in 2025 and Greece in 2026.

That's just 4/42.

The challenge for Eurovision 2027 is to turn those near misses into correct calls and improve the accuracy of my final Top-10 predictions.

Average Place Deviation per Country

Another way to measure the accuracy of my predictions is to calculate how far each country's predicted position was from its actual Grand Final result.

Here are the results for the seven editions so far:

Year	Average place deviation
2019	4.61
2021	3.15
2022	2.88
2023	4.15
2024	3.44
2025	3.61
2026	2.56

Eurovision 2026 was my most accurate year by far.

The biggest surprise, though, came in 2025. I expected my overall deviation to be considerably worse than in 2019 and 2023, but the final numbers told a different story.

My goal for Eurovision 2027 is to set a new personal record and bring the average place deviation below 2.50.

Eurovision Bets & Pieces vs The Model: Who Did It Better?

Do you need a model to predict Eurovision results? Can an algorithm solve the puzzle?

The results suggest that the answer is not quite that simple.

I have compared my predictions with those of the Model for the last three editions in which it has been running. Here are the findings.

Predicted Winners

	Correct
Eurovision Bets & Pieces	0/3
The Model	1/3

My predictions were Croatia 2024, France 2025 and Australia 2026.

The Model predicted Switzerland 2024, Sweden 2025 and Finland 2026.

Top 3 Predictions

	Correct
Eurovision Bets & Pieces	3/9
The Model	4/9

Top 5 Predictions

	Correct
Eurovision Bets & Pieces	11/15
The Model	8/15

Top 10 Predictions

	Correct
Eurovision Bets & Pieces	24/30
The Model	24/30

Average Place Deviation per Country

Year	Eurovision Bets & Pieces	The Model
2024	3.44	4.96
2025	3.61	5.19
2026	2.56	3.04

The Model identified more correct winners and Top-3 finishers, while we finished level in the Top-10 category.

On the other hand, Eurovision Bets & Pieces achieved more correct Top-5 predictions and a lower average place deviation in all three editions.

So, does the algorithm solve the Eurovision puzzle? Not entirely.

The results show that the Model can identify potential winners and podium finishers, while my own analysis has been more accurate when it comes to the broader Top 5 and the overall scoreboard.

The Man vs The Algorithm battle is far from over.

Eurovision 2027: What Comes Next?

Seven Grand Finals provide a useful dataset, but they also offer a reminder of how unpredictable Eurovision can be.

My priorities for the new season are clear:

• Keep the bigger picture in mind when identifying potential winners.
• Improve my Top-3 predictions and aim for the first 3/3.
• Turn near misses into correct Top-10 calls.
• Set a new personal record for average place deviation, below 2.50.
• Continue testing my analysis against the Model.

The numbers show where my predictions have been most consistent and where there is still room for improvement. The challenge now is to turn those lessons into a more accurate and reliable Eurovision 2027 prediction system.

And, of course, to keep looking for the signals that the market might be missing.

The next season is just around the corner. Let's see what the numbers have in store for us!

Eurovision Bets & Pieces — The Man vs The Algorithm, continued in 2027.

 

Eurovision 2027 Betting Resolution: Seven Years, 92 Tips and the Lessons Behind the Numbers

The Big Numbers

Across seven Eurovision editions, I have tipped 92 bets, which works out at 13.1 tips per year.

The total amount of units invested has been 7101.7 units, or 1014.5 per year.

Of those 92 tips, 25 bets won, giving me an overall hit rate of 27.2%.

That might not sound particularly impressive.

But here is where things get interesting.

The total return from those winning bets was 8417.2 units, producing an overall 18.4% ROI.

So yes — by getting only around one in four bets right, I have still managed to generate a respectable long-term profit.

That is the interesting part of betting: accuracy and profitability are not necessarily the same thing.

The main reason I have been able to produce a positive ROI despite winning only 27.2% of my bets?

The average odds of my winning bets is 3.52.

Seven-year record

Total Bets: 25/92 — 27.2%

Total Units Won/Spent: 8417.2/7101.7 — +18.4% ROI

Average winning odds: 3.52

Five of the seven Eurovision editions I have covered ended with a profit.

2023: 2098.6 / 1085.6 — +93.3% — 3/12

2026: 1845 /1000 — +84.5% — 2/10

2024: 1279 /1000 — +27.9% — 3/10

2021: 1344.5 /1191 — +12.9% — 5/15

2022: 1178.7 /1076.7 — +9.5% — 5/19

And there were two editions that ended with a loss.

2019: 552.4 / 629.4 — -12.2% — 6/16

2025: 119/1119 — -89.4% — 1/10

Overall, that gives us three great years, two above-average years, one slightly below average and one disastrous edition.

Not a bad record — but there is plenty here to learn from.

And that becomes even clearer when we split the results between the Semi-Finals and the Grand Final.

Semi-Finals Breakdown

This is where the numbers become considerably less flattering.

I have separated the Semi-Final results from the Final results, and the difference is striking.

Semi-Final Bets: 11/49 — 22.4%

Total Units Won / Spent: 998.7 / 1690 — -41%

Average winning odds: 2.56

The Semi-Finals have clearly been a much more hit-and-miss part of my betting strategy.

There are only two Semi-Final seasons in which I made a profit.

2022: 276.7 / 250 — +10.7% — 3/10

2023: 208.6 / 200 — +4.3% — 2/5

Then we have three editions in which I lost more or less half of the investment.

2021: 265 / 400 — -33.7% — 3/10

2025: 119 / 200 — -40.5% — 1/6

2019: 129.4 / 240 — -46.1% — 3/9

And finally, two editions in which I generated absolutely no return.

2024: 0 / 200 — 0/5

2026: 0 / 200 — 0/6

That is not a pattern I can ignore.

The first major change for Eurovision 2027

For all these years, I have allocated 20% of my total investment to the Semi-Finals, with 10% reserved for each Semi.

Looking back at my suggestions, I have to admit that some of them were genuine long shots with little to no realistic chance of becoming winning bets.

There is another problem.

There have simply been too many Semi-Final bets.

With the strike rate I have achieved, I need at least 40%-50% of those bets to land to generate a meaningful profit. The historical numbers clearly do not justify that approach.

So this is the first major change I will make to my Eurovision 2027 betting strategy:

There will be no allocated units for the Semi-Finals.

Instead, I will be much more selective about the number of tips I publish for each Semi-Final.

Less noise. More conviction.

Closing the gap between my tips and my personal book

My other focus will be finding a middle ground between the bets I tip on the day and the positions in my personal book.

This has been a recurring problem.

Sometimes I have placed a bet five or six weeks before the Semi-Final at odds that I considered excellent value. By the time the Semi-Final arrives, those odds have shortened considerably.

At that point, I have often decided not to tip the bet because, from the perspective of someone betting on the day, the value has disappeared.

That makes sense from a pure value perspective — but it also means that some of my best personal calls never appear in the official record of my tips.

Examples include Cyprus '22, Belgium '24 and Belgium '25.

Belgium '24 alone would have been enough to take my suggested Semi-Final bets back to break-even.

That is something I need to address.

The rise of Q/NQ combinations

Another change I will introduce is the use of Q/NQ combinations.

These were one of the main reasons I achieved some excellent returns in my personal book in 2025 and 2026, but they were not visible in my official tips because I was hesitant to recommend something that many investors simply do not have access to.

Not every bookmaker offers these markets.

But if the option is available, it would be a mistake not to consider it.

The market has been getting 18-20/20 correct qualifiers from the two Semi-Finals in recent editions.

That creates an interesting investment opportunity.

Rather than investing 50-60 units on a single bet and hoping to get 100-150 units back, building 8-12 folds can offer considerably more upside, with returns of around 5-8 times your money, depending on when the bets are placed.

Of course, combinations carry their own risks. One wrong prediction can kill an entire fold.

But from a value perspective, I believe this is an area worth exploring much more aggressively when the market gives us the right conditions.

So, for Eurovision 2027:

Expect fewer Semi-Final bets — but expect them to be more targeted.

Grand Final Breakdown

Things look considerably more promising once we get to the Grand Final.

With just 10% more accuracy than in the Semi-Finals, the ROI jumps from -41% to +37%.

The reason?

Once again, the odds.

The average winning odds of my successful Final bets is 4.30.

Final Bets: 14/43 — 32.6%

Total Units Won / Spent: 7418.5 / 5411.7 — +37%

Average winning odds: 4.30

The Grand Final record is a completely different story.

Six editions have produced a profit, with 2025 the obvious exception.

2026: 1845 / 800 — +130.6% — 2/4

2023: 1890 / 885.6 — +113.4% — 1/7!

2024: 1279 / 800 — +59.9% — 3/5

2021: 1079.5 / 791 — +36.4% — 3/7

2022: 902 / 826.7 — +9.1% — 2/9

2019: 423 / 389.4 — +8.6% — 3/7

2025: 0 / 919 — 0/4

And now comes the funny part.

The bets that never made the official list

Two of my four biggest winning bets from my personal book were never actually tipped.

Why?

Because I had taken them at much bigger odds months or weeks before the contest.

Those were Netherlands '19 and Switzerland '24.

Both were obviously mentioned in my articles, but I omitted them from the official tips because I no longer considered the available odds to represent value on the day.

The third was Italy '21, which was tipped but only moderately.

And then there was Bulgaria last May.

50 units for the win at 16.5 and 300 units at 3.4 for a Top-4 result were enough to secure 1845 units in total.

That one bet alone tells you why odds matter so much more than simply counting winners.

The Winner market dilemma

The Winner market is where the discrepancy between my personal book and my published tips is greatest.

The majority of my Winner bets are placed weeks or months before the contest.

By Final day, the odds have often collapsed and much of the value has disappeared.

That creates a dilemma.

Do I publish a bet at a price that I would no longer take?

Or do I leave it out, knowing that I had already taken the position when the price was significantly bigger?

So far, I have generally chosen the second option.

For Eurovision 2027, I want to find a better way of representing those early positions while still keeping the published betting record based on realistic, available prices.

The Top-10 market: another missed opportunity?

There is another interesting finding.

Tips for a Top-10 finish — my second most profitable market of all time — are almost non-existent in the official record.

The reason is exactly the same as with the Winner market.

I often build large positions weeks or months before the contest, when the odds offer genuine value.

By Final day, that value has disappeared.

Classic examples include Sweden failing Top-10 and Moldova making Top-10 at odds that tripled my investment.

A similar situation occurred last year with Albania and Greece making the Top-10, and Germany making the Top-15.

Those bets were enough to secure a profitable year despite my poor judgement when it came to France and Netherlands.

Again, this is something I want to improve in 2027.

The best value in Eurovision betting is not always available on the day of the Final.

Sometimes the best bet is the one you placed long before the casual market starts paying attention.

The Highs and Lows

Now let's look at the winning bets by odds range.

Of my 25 winning bets, only four were lower than odds-on.

Twelve came in the 33%-50% probability region, making this by far the most profitable area for me.

My record in each category is:

1.01-1.99: 4/9 — 44.4%

2.00-2.49: 6/12 — 50%

2.50-2.99: 6/10 — 60%

3.00-3.49: 3/11 — 27.3%

3.50-3.99: 2/6 — 33.3%

4.00-4.99: 1/10 — 10%

5.00-7.49: 1/10 — 10%

7.50-9.99: 1/5 — 20%

10.00-20: 1/9 — 11.1%

21-130: 0/10 — 0%

The strongest-performing region is clearly the 2.00-2.99 range, with a 54.5% success rate.

The odds-on category is somewhat underwhelming, and there is a simple explanation for that: many of those bets came from my Semi-Final tips during the first three editions covered by the blog, when my betting strategy was still evolving.

My biggest winning odds

The four biggest winning odds that I tipped were:

Bulgaria to win @ 16.5 — '26

Portugal to finish in Top-10 @ 7.6 — '24

Norway Top-Nordic @ 6.5 — '19*
Sweden actually won the region, but days after the bets were settled because of the jury voting miscalculation in Belarus.

Albania to Not Qualify @ 4.5 — '22

And at the other end of the scale, these were my lowest winning odds:

Netherlands to beat Spain @ 1.61 — '21

Switzerland to Finish in Top-4 @ 1.83 — '19

Belgium to Qualify @ 1.91 — '21

Denmark to Qualify @ 1.97 — '19

It is probably no coincidence that all of my odds-on wins came from the first two editions I covered on the blog.

Since then, the bar has been raised.

My approach to Eurovision betting has become much more focused on value rather than simply finding the most likely outcome.

And that is the direction I want to continue in.

My Betting Resolution for Eurovision 2027

So what does all of this mean for Eurovision 2027?

Quite simply:

I want to improve my accuracy.

That means fewer tips and more targeted bets.

My main objective will be to bring my published tips much closer to the positions I actually take in my personal book.

Expect smaller investments in the Semi-Finals and two or three tips maximum for the Grand Final.

There have been some great calls over the years.

But if I am being completely honest, every edition has also contained a bet or two — sometimes more — that were driven more by impulse than by a long-term betting strategy.

The numbers make that clear.

So my Eurovision 2027 betting mantra is simple:

Focus. Clarity. Value.

I would rather publish fewer bets that I genuinely believe in than fill the Units section with speculative calls simply because there is a market available.

And there is another reason to stay tuned.

I have some ideas about taking Eurovision Bets and Pieces to the next level.

There could be some exciting developments later in the season, so watch this space.

For now, expect plenty more articles before the Eurovision 2027 season really gets going, including predictions, historical data analysis and plenty more attempts to uncover the patterns hiding behind the Eurovision numbers.

Because if seven years of betting have taught me anything, it is this:

You don't need to predict everything correctly to make money in Eurovision betting.

You need to identify where the market is wrong — and, most importantly, take the price before everyone else does.

---

All my Eurovision betting tips

Here you can find the links to all the articles featuring my betting tips and analysis from the Semi-Finals and Grand Finals I have covered so far.

SF-1 2019 SF-2 2019 Final 2019

SF-1 2021 SF-2 2021 Final 2021

SF-1 2022 SF-2 2022 Final 2022

SF-1 2023 SF-2 2023 Final 2023

SF-1 2024 SF-2 2024 Final 2024

SF-1 2025 SF-2 2025 Final 2025

SF-1 2026 SF-2 2026 Final 2026

Call it perfect timing, I call it Divine!

 

Eurovision 2026 Grand Final: The Market Is Finally Cracking

Eurovision 2026 has saved all the drama for the very end.

A season that has been defined by Finland sitting at the top of the betting market since late January suddenly feels far more unstable than the odds are implying. Finland still lead the market, but momentum has shifted dramatically since Thursday night and especially after Friday’s jury rehearsal, with Australia and Bulgaria timing their surge perfectly.

And for the first time in months, this Contest genuinely feels open.

I do think we are heading towards an extremely close result tonight. Despite what the outright odds suggest, there are realistically four countries with a genuine winning path and the margin between victory and heartbreak could be razor-thin.

Australia Have Peaked At Exactly The Right Time

Australia have gained the momentum and Delta’s performance is simply operating on another level.

“Eclipse” feels like the complete package now. The vocals are flawless, the staging has scale without becoming chaotic and, most importantly, she looks like a winner on camera. Eurovision juries love credibility and star quality, and Australia suddenly have both in abundance.

I expect Australia to win the jury vote.

The key question is not whether they win it, but by how much.

If they land somewhere in the 250-point range with juries, the televote probably settles around 140-160 and suddenly things become dangerous. But if the juries really go all in and push them closer to 275 points, then we are talking about a potential 180-200 televote score as well.

There is almost always one entry every year that creates an unusual level of agreement between juries and televoters. This year, Australia feel like that entry.

And once that happens, they become the country everyone else has to chase.

Finland’s Winning Path Suddenly Looks Much Narrower

Finland are still leading the market and their pre-show metrics have been solid throughout the season, but their post-Semi dynamics simply do not scream “convincing Eurovision winner”.

There is also a risk that the perceived EBU favouritism ends up creating resistance among casual viewers rather than support.

I am still not fully convinced this is an entry that the wider Saturday-night audience will embrace heavily in the televote. That has been my concern for weeks and nothing during the live shows has really changed that feeling.

The biggest issue for Finland tonight is simple:

How close can they stay to Australia after the jury vote?

Because I always believed Finland’s route to victory relied on either winning the juries outright or staying extremely close to the top. Australia may have blocked that path entirely.

If Finland are sitting somewhere around 200-225 jury points, they could easily find themselves already 30-50 points behind Australia before televoting even begins.

And that is where the uphill battle starts.

Can Finland realistically finish 50+ points ahead of Australia in the televote while:

• Greece
• Israel
• Moldova
• Bulgaria
• Italy

are all competing for similar televote territory?

The Nordic and Baltic support will absolutely be there for Finland. But I am far less convinced about their access to the Eastern televote where diaspora and regional voting patterns could heavily fragment the scoreboard.

Right now, Finland feel more like a 5th-7th place televote entry than a runaway winner.

And that may simply not be enough.

Greece Remain Massively Underrated

Greece have had a fascinating week in the betting markets.

The odds halved on Monday, drifted again after the Semi-Final and have since pushed back out into the middle-to-high teens. But I still think the market is underestimating them because it has failed to properly account for one of the biggest structural changes in this year’s Contest:

The younger jurors.

The EBU’s attempt to bring jury and televote results closer together could significantly benefit entries with stronger emotional accessibility and broader modern appeal.

That matters enormously for Greece.

I still believe Greece will perform substantially better with juries than the market expects and I would not be surprised at all if they either win the televote outright or finish extremely close to the top.

Yes, the Balkan and Eastern bloc entries may dilute each other somewhat in the public vote. But Greece should still score heavily enough across multiple regions to remain fully competitive if the winning threshold lands somewhere around 430-450 points.

Maybe it is overthinking.
Maybe it is bias.

But Greece feel like a locked Top-3 result to me and if an opening appears tonight, they are absolutely capable of taking it.

If Greece hit 180+ jury points, then the game truly begins.

Bulgaria Have Become The Chaos Candidate

Bulgaria are the dark horse that exploded into contention on Wednesday and completely changed the complexion of this Final.

The staging elevated the entry several levels.
Dara has undeniable charisma.
The song works both East and West.
And crucially, it feels accessible to both juries and televoters.

That combination is rare.

Add an extremely favourable running order position and suddenly Bulgaria become the entry nobody wants to ignore anymore.

The market certainly noticed.

Seeing Bulgaria collapse from triple-digit odds earlier in the week into serious contention has been one of the defining betting stories of Eurovision 2026.

And honestly? I am glad I jumped on the bandwagon before the explosion happened.

One additional point worth noting: the voting reveal order strongly suggests that Bulgaria, Greece or potentially both could receive a late scoreboard push from countries like:

• Serbia
• Moldova
• Croatia
• Romania

That could create exactly the kind of dramatic momentum swing that changes perception during the live voting itself.

My Final Eurovision 2026 Predictions

1. Australia

Jury: 250-275
Televote: 180-200
Total: 430-475

Australia have the momentum, the jury appeal and the performance that feels biggest on television. If they win the juries clearly enough, the televote should naturally follow.

The last Eurovision winner to take fewer than 200 televote points was Austria last year in a far weaker field. Australia look much stronger than that profile.

2. Greece

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 225-250
Total: 405-450

If Greece get the jury respect I believe they will receive, then they become a genuine contender because the televote should already be there.

They are far more credible with juries than the market assumes.

3. Bulgaria

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 180-200
Total: 360-400

Could this be the shock winner?

A week ago Bulgaria were trading at absurd prices. Now they suddenly look capable of exploding across both voting groups. If the jury score lands near 200 points, everyone should start paying attention very quickly.

4. Finland

Jury: 190-210
Televote: 160-180
Total: 350-390

For most of the season, Finland always felt like one of two extremes:

• either a 500+ point landslide winner,
• or an entry finishing around 4th with 375 points.

I am leaning much more towards the second scenario now.

They can still absolutely win.
But there are now too many uncertainties to justify the current market position.

The Rest Of My Top-10

5. Israel

Jury: 50-60
Televote: 220-240
Total: 270-295

A huge televote score is coming, but I struggle to see enough jury support to truly contend unless they unexpectedly cross the 125-point jury mark.

6. Romania

Jury: 65-80
Televote: 130-145
Total: 195-225

Could comfortably finish Top-10.
Could also finish 11th.
One of the harder entries to price correctly.

7. Italy

Jury: 70-90
Televote: 120-135
Total: 190-225

Classic Italy. Strong enough to remain relevant everywhere without necessarily dominating anywhere.

8. Ukraine

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 130-145
Total: 190-220

Another reliable Ukrainian Top-10 result feels likely, although the Eastern televote congestion could suppress the ceiling slightly.

9. Moldova

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 150-170
Total: 180-215

One of my favourite positions of the season. I loved the Top-10 value from early April and still think it lands comfortably.

10. France

Jury: 125-140
Televote: 35-50
Total: 160-190

A disappointing rehearsal week overall. Monroe is excellent, but the staging once again feels like France never fully understood how to maximise the entry’s potential.

Top-10 is no longer guaranteed.

11. Denmark

Jury: 100-120
Televote: 35-50
Total: 135-170

Opposing Denmark for a Top-5 result has been one of my core positions since before Eurovision week started and I still believe the market overrated their ceiling throughout the season.

The jury support should still be respectable because of the professionalism and overall package quality, but I struggle to see where the televote explosion comes from in such a competitive Final.

The early Top-10 lays may end up being the cherry on top if the scoreboard becomes crowded around the middle positions.

12. Albania

Jury: 75-90
Televote: 60-75
Total: 135-165

Albania absolutely have a path towards the Top-10 if juries connect with the authenticity and emotional intensity of the performance.

The issue is that they are competing in a very congested area of the scoreboard where several Eastern and Balkan entries could end up cannibalising each other’s support.

Still, this feels like one of Albania’s strongest overall Eurovision packages in years and a Top-15 finish should be comfortably achievable.

13. Malta

Jury: 90-110
Televote: 10-20
Total: 100-130

Malta will always have a special place in my heart for the 2026 season — not because of the entry itself, but because of the market movement around it.

Their suspicious outright market support earlier in the season allowed me to offset a large part of my Finland exposure at very favourable prices. For that alone, I owe them my gratitude.

As for the result itself, this has “jury appreciation but televote rejection” written all over it.

14. Croatia

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-45
Total: 75-105

Croatia already overperformed expectations in the Semi-Final and simply reaching the Final feels like a success story in itself.

The song should collect enough regional support and scattered televote points to avoid disaster territory, but the overall ceiling feels limited in a packed Grand Final.

A lower mid-table result looks like the most realistic outcome.

15. Poland

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-40
Total: 75-100

Poland never truly generated momentum during Eurovision week and the staging did not elevate the entry enough to create serious upward movement.

There should still be enough diaspora and regional televote support to remain competitive around the middle of the scoreboard, but this lacks the broader crossover appeal needed for a higher finish.

16. Sweden

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 15-25
Total: 65-90

My biggest anti-market position of the season.

Sweden entered Eurovision week heavily overrated in my opinion and I have been aggressive both in the Top-10 and Top-15 lay markets. The overall package feels far too cold and anonymous to generate meaningful televote traction and I am not convinced the juries will rescue it enough either.

If Sweden miss the Top-10 entirely, it would not shock me whatsoever.

17. Czechia

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 0-10
Total: 60-85

Czechia feels like one of those entries that juries may reward for effort, structure and musical credibility while the public simply ignores it completely.

The televote ceiling looks extremely low and there is a genuine risk of single-digit public points tonight.

Without jury support, this could collapse very quickly.

18. Cyprus

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Cyprus should benefit from enough regional and neighbour support to avoid the very bottom of the scoreboard, but there is very little evidence suggesting broader appeal outside that lane.

The staging helped somewhat, though not enough to transform the overall trajectory of the entry.

19. Serbia

Jury: 20-35
Televote: 20-30
Total: 40-65

Serbia may pick up scattered televote support across the Balkans, but this feels like another entry trapped in the congestion of similar regional voting patterns.

The jury potential also appears fairly limited, making it difficult to identify a realistic route towards a stronger result.

20. Lithuania

Jury: 10-20
Televote: 5-15
Total: 15-35

Lithuania never managed to create any real traction throughout Eurovision week and now look vulnerable to being swallowed by the scoreboard entirely.

Even the usual regional support may not be enough in such a competitive field.

21. Norway

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 10-20
Total: 15-35

Norway have felt disconnected from the Contest almost from the beginning of rehearsals.

There may still be enough televote goodwill to avoid absolute last place territory, but this looks like an entry that both voting groups simply failed to engage with emotionally.

22. Germany

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 0-10
Total: 5-25

Germany’s biggest issue is not necessarily that the entry is bad — it is that nothing about it feels memorable enough to survive in a Final this crowded.

When casual viewers are overwhelmed with stronger visual and emotional packages, entries like this tend to disappear very quickly.

23. United Kingdom

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-10
Total: 0-20

Another painful year for the UK appears to be on the horizon.

The performance lacks identity, the staging feels disconnected from the song and there is no obvious voting constituency ready to rescue it.

Avoiding the bottom three may already count as success.

24. Austria

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Austria benefited enormously from the specific dynamics of last year’s Contest, but 2026 feels completely different.

This entry has struggled to generate any momentum whatsoever and now looks like one of the clearest candidates for a complete scoreboard collapse.

25. Belgium

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Belgium have quietly become one of my favourite longshot positions for last place.

The performance never connected during rehearsals, the staging feels lifeless and there is virtually no evidence of either jury or televote support emerging.

Betting Time

Disagreeing with the market for a second consecutive year allowed me to structure things very differently and avoid becoming overexposed to a Finland victory scenario.

My key hedge positions were:

• Denmark Top-5 lay
• Sweden Top-10 lay

And the Sweden lay alone may already be enough to protect the outright market completely.

Outside the winner market, Moldova Top-10 and Albania Top-15 were probably my favourite early-week value positions.

But the real story has been Bulgaria.

Getting involved before the market correction with:

• Top-10
• Top-5
• Top-4
• Top-3

positions created some enormous upside and Top-10 alone now covers the overall Bulgarian exposure.

As for tonight’s outright positions:

• Australia to Win — 400 units @4.1
• Greece to Win — 50 units @17.5
• Bulgaria to Win — 50 units @16.5
• Bulgaria Top-4 — 300 units @3.4

If any of Australia, Greece or Bulgaria win tonight, this will comfortably become my most profitable Eurovision ever.

And honestly, after a season this chaotic, dramatic and unpredictable, that would feel very fitting.

Good luck with your bets tonight — and get ready for one of the most exciting Eurovision voting sequences we have had in years.

The Return of the Balkans

 

Semi-Final 2: The Bloodbath Semi

Semi-Final 1 is over and the time has come for the Bloodbath Semi where fourteen countries (not you Azerbaijan!) have a chance, smaller or bigger, to qualify.

The jury-oriented mix will make things harder for weaker jury entries like Switzerland, Latvia and Luxembourg, while potentially boosting countries with strong televote magnetism that will find more space to breathe in the public vote scoreboard — Cyprus, Armenia and Norway immediately come to mind.

I do believe things will be marginal from seventh to thirteenth place tonight and every single point will count.

Before starting the analysis, I wanted to point out a few observations after Semi-Final 1 and the Jury Show yesterday.

The return of juries to the Semi-Finals has made things significantly more interesting. It adds an extra layer of suspense and expands the qualification mix. Belgium’s and Lithuania’s results on Tuesday strongly suggest that the juries saved two countries in a heavily televote-oriented Semi. Maybe tonight is the moment where the televote returns the favour and saves one or two entries in this heavily jury-oriented Semi.

Another thing that stood out is that juries appear to have moved beyond simply rewarding strong vocals. They are increasingly embracing innovative, contemporary and fresher productions. Whether that is due to the younger jurors or juries finally catching up with Eurovision trends, it is something we need to consider when projecting points and estimating results.

The other major takeaway deserving recognition is the overall elevation in staging quality from Balkan and Eastern European delegations this year.

Croatia, Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, Armenia, Serbia and of course Greece have all delivered high-level productions that genuinely elevate the quality of their entries.

Has the time finally come for a Grand Final Jury Top-10 that is not dominated by Western and Nordic entries?

Some food for thought.

---

1. Australia

Jury: 140-160
Televote: 110-130
Total: 250-290

Star quality makes the difference and Australia will win the jury vote tonight — and potentially next Saturday as well.

The staging ticks every jury winner box imaginable and Delta is elevating (no pun intended) “Eclipse” with her vocal ability, charisma and complete command of the stage.

The public vote has almost always been there for Australia in the Semi-Finals, even during years where they struggled in the Grand Final.

With the exception of 2021, where they finished 14th with the juries, Australia has finished:

• 1st once
• 2nd twice
• 3rd twice

with the juries in Semi-Finals.

They also own three televote podium finishes in the Semis:

• 1st in 2023
• 2nd in 2016 and 2019

With those historical trends and this package, Australia to win the Semi-Final @3.1 looks more than fair — if not outright value.

---

2. Ukraine

Jury: 80-100
Televote: 125-145
Total: 205-245

The other powerhouse of the Semi.

Another elevated staging.

Ukraine — unsurprisingly — has delivered a presentation that is minimalistic but perfectly tailored to the purpose of the song.

Leleka delivered arguably her strongest vocal on the Jury Show when it mattered most and we already know the televote support will be there tonight.

If jurors do not consciously downgrade Ukraine due to the lack of “stakes” in a Semi-Final environment, then there is no reason why they cannot win tonight.

Ukraine are heading towards what could be a fifth televote win in a Semi-Final and they also have three jury third places from four previous Semis.

Ukraine to win Semi-Final 2 @6.2 is a value bet.

---

3. Bulgaria

Jury: 100-115
Televote: 110-125
Total: 210-240

Bulgaria are back and their staging is magnificent.

Dara is a superstar full of energy and charisma. The staging itself is a masterclass in how to elevate an entry while balancing credibility and entertainment.

Both the audience poll and press poll yesterday had Bulgaria leading the Semi and they are emerging as the first genuine dark horse of the season.

Their Semi Top-3 odds have crashed and are now trading around @1.80-2.00.

Fair price.

But the value is probably gone.

---

4. Denmark

Jury: 120-130
Televote: 80-100
Total: 200-230

Soren was not at his best vocally last night.

The staging concept is essentially a more refined version of the DMGP performance and the song itself remains authentic and jury-friendly.

However, this is a Semi packed with Eastern European countries and whatever that means in terms of neighbouring votes and regional support.

The juries will absolutely be there for Denmark.

I am still slightly dubious about the televote ceiling.

They should still perform strongly in a Semi-Final environment, but I suspect things could become much harder in the Grand Final once Finland and Israel enter the televote equation.

There is not much liquidity in the market right now, but Denmark lay for a Top-3 finish in the Semi is available around @1.33.

I have opposed Denmark in the Grand Final Top-5 market since early April.

---

5. Albania

Jury: 90-110
Televote: 60-75
Total: 150-185

I would have been even more bullish on Albania finishing Top-3 in this Semi if Italy, Greece and Montenegro had also been voting here.

I already hold a bet on Albania @6 — the same price they currently trade at.

The staging serves the song perfectly and the English subtitles help break the language barrier while carrying a universal emotional message.

Alis is an exceptionally gifted and theatrical performer.

Albania is another entry that feels like a grower and I expect it to gain momentum and discussion after tonight.

---

6. Czechia

Jury: 110-125
Televote: 30-45
Total: 140-170

Czechia are once again doing what they do best:

Producing a polished, jury-oriented entry.

Daniel is charismatic enough to connect with jurors and that should secure a strong jury score.

The real question is whether viewers will respond emotionally enough to reward it in the televote.

Unfortunately, there is not a huge amount of song there.

I was tempted to oppose qualification but I suspect the juries will carry Czechia safely into the Final.

No bet for me.

---

7. Romania

Jury: 35-50
Televote: 75-90
Total: 110-140

An interesting staging concept from Romania, although the song itself starts to drag after the first minute.

Alexandra Capitanescu had a rough Jury Show performance yesterday and that may encourage jurors to score Romania lower than initially expected.

Qualification should still not be an issue and the televote support will absolutely be there.

Still, I do think this entry is slightly overhyped.

---

8. Malta

Jury: 80-100
Televote: 20-35
Total: 100-135

We are now entering the real danger zone.

Malta once again has a polished and jury-friendly staging package that should impress professional jurors enough to secure qualification.

I may actually be generous with the projected televote score though.

If there truly is a shift towards juries rewarding more Eastern European entries, Malta could become vulnerable.

If Malta misses the jury Top-5 tonight, they might become the shock non-qualifier of the Semi.

For now, I still lean towards qualification.

---

9. Armenia

Jury: 30-40
Televote: 60-75
Total: 90-115

I joined the Armenian qualification bandwagon very early this season and I am still onboard despite the market disagreeing.

The presentation feels slick, modern and effective.

The choreography and dance routine should receive recognition from viewers and I expect Armenia’s televote score to land somewhere between 7th and 9th overall.

That could easily be enough.

There are also useful voting allies in this Semi:

• France
• Cyprus
• Bulgaria
• Ukraine

I also have a strong feeling Armenia could receive France’s jury 12 or 10 points and that may prove decisive.

This is my biggest bet tonight.

Armenia to Qualify @3.1 is value.

---

10. Norway

Jury: 35-50
Televote: 45-65
Total: 80-115

A charismatic performer.

A televote-friendly banger.

A pimp slot.

That is usually a very strong qualification combination.

I think Norway will finish somewhere around the lower Top-10 with both voting groups and qualify one way or another.

Last night’s audience poll had Norway fourth, just fifteen votes behind Denmark in third.

---

11. Luxembourg

Jury: 40-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 80-105

This is a very tricky one for me personally.

I randomly watched the Luxembourg national final and immediately felt there was something naturally catchy and warm about the entry.

Then it faded away a little.

But when I attended the London Eurovision Party, I had exactly the same instinctive reaction again.

Eva Marija has that relatable “girl next door” warmth and the staging and lyrical message could genuinely resonate with family viewers.

I currently have Luxembourg just outside my qualification list.

But they absolutely have a realistic chance.

I still have them in my betting book @3.6 simply because I had to trust my instinct.

Currently trading around @3.1.

The running order position also helps them stand out.

---

12. Cyprus

Jury: 15-30
Televote: 50-65
Total: 65-95

What a strange journey Cyprus have had this season.

Antigoni’s vocals were always going to be the key issue and last night was rough.

Could this become another Andromache-style result?

There are enough friendly countries in the Semi to help Cyprus, but when vocals become visibly problematic, even allies become more hesitant.

Cyprus will either survive or collapse entirely through the televote.

There are some encouraging signs from fans and audience reactions, but they probably need something around 80-85 televote points to truly feel safe.

That may prove difficult.

This feels like a pure coin toss.

And when one side of the coin nearly triples your money, that usually signals value.

Cyprus lay @1.58 (2.72 NQ) is value.

---

13. Switzerland

Jury: 50-60
Televote: 10-25
Total: 60-85

Switzerland may have become trapped in its own spider web — another no pun intended.

They have overthought the staging and ended up creating a visual distraction that works against the entry rather than elevating it.

Which is a shame, because Veronica Fusaro is vocally one of the strongest performers in the Semi-Final. Unfortunately, the staging constantly pulls attention away from the one thing that could genuinely carry Switzerland into the Final: her voice.

There is still a narrow qualification route if Switzerland sneaks into the jury Top-5, but I expect the televote score to flirt dangerously close with single digits.

And that will probably kill their chances.

---

14. Latvia

Jury: 50-60
Televote: 10-25
Total: 60-85

Every Eurovision season has one entry that feels like it should do well — maybe even very well — but once the live shows arrive, it simply disappears.

Latvia might be that song this year.

Their Eurojury result was one of the biggest red flags of the season. Finishing last with zero points is not something you can easily dismiss at this stage of the competition.

Atvara probably needs a miracle jury Top-5 result to reach the Final and Latvia realistically only has Denmark and Norway as reliable support systems tonight.

I would genuinely be happy if Latvia qualified because, in a fair world, they deserve to be there.

But I fear they may not even come close.

Surprisingly, their odds have not drifted enough yet to become a value betting opportunity.

---

15. Azerbaijan

Jury: 0-5
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-10

There is not much left to say here.

Reaching double digits might genuinely be the only realistic target for Azerbaijan tonight.

---

Betting Time

And now it is time for the traditional tips.

As always, I follow the standard format of:

• 100 units per Semi-Final
• 800 units reserved for the Grand Final

Semi-Final 1 did not go according to plan, although there are still 25 units on Greece to win Semi-Final 1 currently alive.

As always, my bets are value-driven rather than prediction-driven and these are my positions for tonight.

Tonight’s Bets

• Ukraine to Win SF2 — 50 units @6.2
• Cyprus Lay — 30 units @1.58 (2.72 NQ)
• Armenia to Qualify — 20 units @3.30

Good luck with your bets tonight and keep the conversation going across social media.

Bring It!

 

 The judgement day has finally arrived and tonight the big guns will have to put every card on the table. With Semi-Final 1 shaping up to be comfortably the weakest Semi of the last decade, the spotlight shifts almost entirely towards one question: who leaves tonight with the momentum — Greece or Finland?

For the first time in months, Finland’s grip at the top of the market looks slightly vulnerable.

Yesterday belonged to Greece.

The Greek delegation finally unveiled the full staging concept and the reaction across the arena, fandom and betting markets was immediate. Akylas and Fokas have delivered a performance that feels less like a Eurovision entry and more like a three-minute cinematic experience, divided into chapters and packed with visual moments.

The market reacted aggressively. Greece opened yesterday around 7.00 to win Eurovision, crashed into the 3.65 range during the evening and eventually stabilised around 4.00-4.20.

That kind of move is never accidental.

The key question now is whether Greece can fully steal the narrative tonight after the Semi-Final result. Momentum matters enormously in Eurovision betting and this feels like the first genuine attack on Finland’s long-standing position at the top.

Finland, to their credit, remain extremely solid. The performance works, the audience is fully engaged and they still possess the cleanest televote package in the competition. However, for the first time in three months, we have finally seen the market blink.

Finland drifted from the 2.10-2.20 region into 2.50-2.60 after rehearsals, a sign that traders are starting to question whether this is still a runaway favourite or simply the market leader in a very open year.

Thursday could complicate matters even further if France and Australia land properly.

The other major winner from yesterday was Moldova. The fandom has finally jumped on a train that sharp bettors boarded weeks ago. Moldova’s Top-10 odds have collapsed from the 3.25-3.50 range into 1.80 and that move feels entirely justified.

This has comfortably been my strongest pre-rehearsal position of the season.

The televote ceiling is massive and in a weak Semi-Final they suddenly have a realistic path towards a Top-3 finish tonight.

There will be plenty of time after the show to dissect the winners, losers and market overreactions, but for now it is time for the traditional Semi-Final 1 projection.

1. Greece

Jury: 110-125
Televote: 130-145
Total: 240-270

Akylas delivers vocally, Fokas once again proves why he remains one of Eurovision’s elite staging minds and Greece suddenly feels like the entry everyone will be talking about after tonight.

This is not simply “artsy” Eurovision. It is accessible, emotional and visually memorable while still offering enough sophistication for juries to reward it heavily.

The final minute in particular feels tailor-made for jury appeal.

The Semi draw is also favourable, with enough allies to support both voting components. Greece to win Semi-Final 1 around 4.10 looks like clear betting value.

2. Finland

Jury: 120-130
Televote: 100-110
Total: 220-240

No real concerns for Finland.

The performance lands exactly as expected and the crowd response remains huge. However, yesterday’s audience poll — where they surprisingly finished behind Moldova among a heavily western crowd — is at least worth monitoring.

Tonight’s scoreboard will tell us far more.

The issue from a betting perspective is purely price-related. Finland winning the Semi around 1.91 offers very little value considering the growing competition around them.

3. Moldova

Jury: 75-85
Televote: 120-130
Total: 195-215

Can Moldova overtake Israel and sneak into the Top-3?

I believe they can.

Israel traditionally overperforms in western televoting markets but their eastern support historically has not been nearly as dominant, opening the door for Moldova to capitalise in this specific Semi.

Moldova now looks extremely well positioned for a Top-10 finish in the Final and potentially even a Top-5 televote result overall.

Liquidity remains poor in the speciality markets, but anything above 2.50-2.75 for Moldova Top-3 tonight still looks playable.

4. Israel

Jury: 55-65
Televote: 105-115
Total: 160-180

The growing attempts to control or suppress Israel’s televote narrative feel mistimed and potentially counterproductive.

If anything, making Israel the central talking point only increases public mobilisation.

The more interesting question tonight concerns the juries. In a Semi-Final environment where qualification is relatively safe, jurors may feel freer to score this entry naturally without broader strategic considerations.

The Semi mix is not especially friendly though, which could leave Israel vulnerable to a lower-than-expected placement.

5. Croatia

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 80-100
Total: 130-165

This was an entry I was looking to oppose ever since Dora, but the delegation has improved steadily throughout the season.

The girls are performing better with every rehearsal and the staging adds the extra impact the package needed.

Qualification looks comfortable and the bigger question now is whether Croatia can build enough late momentum to threaten the Final Top-10.

6. Sweden

Jury: 70-80
Televote: 45-55
Total: 115-135

Sweden are fortunate to be competing in this particular Semi-Final because a stronger draw could have created genuine danger.

This entry feels heavily “Melodifestivalen-coded” — something that works domestically but loses impact on the Eurovision stage.

Felicia’s personal story resonates in Sweden, but internationally the styling choices, mask concept and dark staging create unnecessary barriers for viewers and juries alike.

The market has finally started adjusting. A Top-10 finish in the Final now feels increasingly unrealistic, especially with Finland and Denmark offering much stronger overall packages.

My average lay at 1.64 remains one of my best positions of the year. The market now trades around 2.08.

7. Poland

Jury: 65-75
Televote: 40-50
Total: 105-125

Potentially the biggest grower of the Semi.

My main concern pre-rehearsals was Poland’s historic jury weakness, particularly with a jury-oriented entry. However, the staging has elevated the package considerably and qualification now feels more likely than not.

Still not fully safe — but definitely moving towards qualification territory.

8. Serbia

Jury: 35-45
Televote: 50-60
Total: 85-105

We have officially entered the danger zone.

Serbia traditionally thrives in borderline qualification scenarios and there are enough regional connections here — particularly Croatia and Montenegro — to provide a foundation in the televote.

At the same time, this absolutely could miss out.

There may be slight value opposing Serbia, but this is not a market I am eager to attack.

9. Estonia

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105

Another genuine coinflip.

The running order helps and credibility matters enormously in the chaotic second half of this Semi. Estonia at least feels professional and coherent, which could prove decisive.

Lithuania, Finland and Sweden also provide useful voting connections.

I backed Estonia pre-rehearsals above 2.50 and the market now trades around 3.20. The more interesting angle might actually be Top Baltic Entry at 6.00-7.00, which still retains value even if qualification is missed.

10. San Marino

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105

Every second year I find myself chasing a San Marino qualification ticket. Previous attempts came in 2022 and 2024.

Could this finally be the year?

Pre-rehearsals I had San Marino dead last in my rankings, but the staging has transformed the entry entirely. Boy George’s involvement feels deliberately designed to generate commentator buzz and casual audience attention.

If San Marino can activate their traditional “jury dark arts” through countries like Greece, Montenegro and Italy, qualification around 4.70 is worth the gamble.

A bet I am always happy to lose.

11. Portugal

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 15-25
Total: 60-80

The return of juries to the Semi-Finals theoretically keeps Portugal alive, but I still struggle to construct a realistic qualification path.

This is an entry almost entirely dependent on jury support and even there, I am not convinced the ceiling is high enough. To qualify comfortably, Portugal probably needs a Top-5 or Top-6 jury result and I simply do not see enough standout moments for that to happen.

The televote outlook is weak, the running order does not help and the overall pace of the Semi could leave this entry completely exposed.

I would not be shocked if Portugal sneaks through, but from a betting perspective I cannot find any value in the current qualification price.

12. Lithuania

Jury: 25-35
Televote: 30-40
Total: 55-75

This is where the maths start becoming very uncomfortable.

Lithuania is traditionally a weak jury nation, lacks meaningful voting allies in this Semi outside Estonia and Poland and does not benefit from any significant diaspora presence tonight.

Then there is the performance itself.

Vocally, the jury rehearsal was reportedly rough and this is not the type of entry that can survive weak vocals in front of jurors. Add the alien-inspired styling and inaccessible presentation and suddenly the qualification price looks completely disconnected from reality.

Trading around 1.50 to qualify makes absolutely no sense to me.

Lithuania not to qualify at 3.00 is, in my opinion, the standout value bet of Semi-Final 1.

13. Montenegro

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Can neighbours and hardcore fans drag Montenegro across the line?

Possibly — but I remain highly sceptical.

The delegation has staged this entry in an oddly aggressive way, trying so hard to create impact that they may have alienated both jurors and casual viewers in the process.

This feels like a classic fandom bubble entry. Eurovision fans may appreciate the chaos and intensity, but regular viewers often react very differently.

Tonight will be a fascinating test of how influential the fanbase really is in Semi-Final voting.

I have included Montenegro in several non-qualification combo bets alongside Belgium and Georgia.

14. Belgium

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 15-25
Total: 45-70

At this stage there is very little left to analyse.

Belgium simply never recovered from the rehearsal week and the entry now feels completely devoid of momentum. Neither the staging nor the live performance elevated the package and in a televote-heavy environment this becomes extremely dangerous.

The juries may throw a few respectable scores their way, but the televote ceiling looks alarmingly low.

There is still some value including Belgium in non-qualification combinations and that remains the only angle I would consider betting-wise.

15. Georgia

Jury: 10-25
Televote: 15-25
Total: 25-50

Georgia once again feels like a delegation that misunderstood the assignment entirely.

Almost every creative decision surrounding this entry has worked against its qualification chances. The staging lacks identity, the performance feels disconnected and there is no clear televote hook for casual viewers to latch onto.

In a stronger Semi this would have been completely dead on arrival and even in this weaker lineup it still looks comfortably headed for another non-qualification.

At this point, avoiding last place might be the more realistic objective.

Betting Time

If I was entering the market fresh today, these would be the three positions I would want in my book.

Greece to win SF1 — 25 units @ 4.10
San Marino to qualify — 25 units @ 4.70
Lithuania not to qualify — 50 units @ 3.00

As always, I will follow the traditional format of 100 units per Semi and 800 units reserved for the Final.

Good luck with your bets tonight and keep the conversation going on social media.