Know Your Numbers 2026 Edition - Part 2

Eurovision Voting Analysis: High Scores, Top-3 Patterns and National Tendencies

Every year, Eurovision delivers memorable performances, dramatic scoreboards and endless debate about how countries vote. While final rankings tell one story, a deeper understanding comes from examining where nations place their highest scores — the famous 12, 10 and 8 points.

This study focuses on the Top-3 scores awarded by each country through both the jury vote and the public televote. These numbers help explain how different countries approach voting — whether they reward consensus favourites, regional neighbours, diaspora-linked acts, or entries that appeal to distinct national tastes.

By keeping the full statistical structure for each country, we can compare voting behaviour more accurately and identify long-term trends.

In Part 1, I looked at Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria and Azerbaijan.

Part 2 continues the journey with Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia and Denmark — six countries with very different voting identities, from highly consistent consensus voters to nations where geography and long-standing cultural ties clearly shape the destination of those crucial high scores.

 

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Belgium

Jury Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 5/9
Jury Winner in the Top-3: 8/9
Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 7/9
Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 16/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 19

Number of countries awarded 12 points: 7

12 Points Distribution

Austria x3
Australia x1
Sweden x1
Italy x1
Switzerland x1
United Kingdom x1
France x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

Italy 3/9
Sweden 3/9
France 3/9
Austria 3/6
Switzerland 3/6

Public Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 4/9
Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 7/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 8/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 17/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 13
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 7

12 Points Distribution

Israel x2
Netherlands x2
Poland x1
Portugal x1
France x1
Ukraine x1
Finland x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

France 6/9
Netherlands 5/9
Israel 3/9

Overview

Belgium is one of the more reliable countries when it comes to rewarding the overall favourites with high scores. The jury tends to spread its support across western European entries, while the televote shows a clearer pattern, with France and the Netherlands regularly featuring strongly. More recently, Israel has also emerged as a notable televote favourite.

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Bulgaria

Jury Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 1/5
Jury Winner in the Top-3: 1/5
Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 1/5
Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 2/15

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 13
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 4

12 Points Distribution

Austria x2
Armenia x1
Moldova x1
Greece x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

Austria 2/5
Greece 2/5

Public Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 3/5
Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 4/5
Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 4/5
Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 9/15

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 12
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 5

12 Points Distribution

Ukraine x1
Italy x1
Cyprus x1
France x1
Russia x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

Moldova 2/5
Ukraine 2/5
France 2/5

Overview

Bulgaria has been something of a hit-and-miss country when it comes to jury voting, with support split between western and eastern entries and some signs of tactical voting during the late 2010s when Bulgaria itself was among the contenders. The televote has been far more accurate, with the bulk of high scores going to regional neighbours and familiar eastern European favourites.

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Croatia

Jury Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 1/9
Jury Winner in the Top-3: 5/9
Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 2/9
Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 11/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 20
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 6

12 Points Distribution

Italy x4
Portugal x1
Serbia x1
Lithuania x1
Hungary x1
Australia x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

Italy 4/9
Switzerland 2/9
Portugal 2/9
Israel 2/9

Public Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 0/8
Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 5/8
Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 2/8
Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 16/24

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 14
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 5

12 Points Distribution

Serbia x5
Estonia x1
Slovenia x1
Italy x1
Hungary x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

Serbia 6/8
Italy 4/8
Slovenia 3/8
Ukraine 3/8

Overview

Croatian juries cast a very wide net, with 20 different countries appearing in their Top-3 over the period, but there is still a visible preference for Italy and other western entries. Interestingly, Serbia has yet to receive a jury Top-3 placing despite dominating Croatia’s televote. In the public vote, neighbours clearly take over, with Serbia by far the strongest long-term favourite.

Croatia is also one of only three countries in the 2026 line-up yet to award a televote winner the full 12 points, alongside Montenegro and Greece.

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Cyprus

Jury Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 1/9
Jury Winner in the Top-3: 3/9
Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 3/9
Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 8/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 15
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 4

12 Points Distribution

Greece x5
Sweden x2
Croatia x1
Russia x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

Greece 5/9
Italy 4/9
Australia 3/9
Sweden 2/9
France 2/9

Public Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 1/9
Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 5/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 1/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 12/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 12
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 4

12 Points Distribution

Greece x5
Bulgaria x2
Israel x1
Ukraine x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

Greece 6/9
Israel 4/9
Ukraine 4/9

Overview

If there is one country that consistently rewards its closest friends, it is Cyprus. The jury combines its traditional preference for Greece with a wider western European spread, while the televote is even more predictable, with Greece, Israel, Ukraine and regional neighbours dominating the high scores.

Cyprus has also delivered the exact same televote Top-3 in the same order in each of the last two years — Greece, Israel, Ukraine — and it would likely have been three in a row had Greece qualified in 2023.

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Czechia

Jury Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 2/9
Jury Winner in the Top-3: 4/9
Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 4/9
Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 10/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 19
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 6

12 Points Distribution

Ukraine x2
Portugal x2
Sweden x2
Germany x1
Israel x1
United Kingdom x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

Sweden 6/9
France 2/9
United Kingdom 2/9
Portugal 2/9
Ukraine 2/9

Public Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 1/9
Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 8/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 4/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 15/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 16
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 4

12 Points Distribution

Ukraine x6
Bulgaria x1
Moldova x1
Russia x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

Ukraine 7/9
Israel 4/9
Moldova 2/9

Overview

Czechia’s jury voting leans strongly westward, but its televote has been more successful at identifying high-ranking Eurovision entries. Much of that is driven by Ukraine, which dominates Czech televote history.

One particularly striking trend: Czechia has yet to award a western country a televote 12 points, despite placing the televote winner in its Top-3 in eight of the last nine editions.

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Denmark

Jury Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 3/9
Jury Winner in the Top-3: 7/9
Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 6/9
Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 13/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 17
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 6

12 Points Distribution

Sweden x3
Switzerland x2
Latvia x1
Greece x1
Germany x1
Ukraine x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

Sweden 4/9
Australia 3/9
Switzerland 3/9
Finland 2/9
Germany 2/9

Public Vote

Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 4/9
Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 5/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 5/9
Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 12/27

Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 15
Number of countries awarded 12 points: 7

12 Points Distribution

Sweden x3
Croatia x1
Finland x1
Ukraine x1
Iceland x1
Norway x1
Germany x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

Sweden 7/9
Norway 5/9
Iceland 2/9
Israel 2/9

Overview

Denmark’s voting profile is shaped strongly by Nordic ties. Sweden is the clear long-term favourite, collecting the most 12 points in both jury and televote.

The jury is slightly more open, spreading support across a broader European field, while the televote remains much more geographically focused, with Nordic neighbours regularly taking the biggest scores.

Eurovision 2026: Gran Final Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings

Eurovision 2026 Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

The calm before the staging storm.

Eurovision season has finally reached the point where theory meets reality.

With rehearsals starting today, we are officially entering the phase where carefully built narratives collide with camera angles, LED choices, vocal consistency and three minutes of live television.

Up to this point, the market has been relatively stable. But Eurojury added an extra layer of anchoring to the leading pack, giving us a stronger data point before the first rehearsal clips start reshaping the race.

And if Eurovision history has taught us anything, it is this: pre-rehearsal rankings often look hilarious two weeks later.

That is not a flaw in the process — that is the process.

Staging creates momentum. Momentum creates narratives. Narratives create points.

So here is my current projection before rehearsals begin.

Grab your popcorn.

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The four countries with a realistic winning path

1. Greece

Juries: 5th — 160–180
Televote: 1st — 230–270
Projected total: 390–450

Why it can win

• Eurojury confirmed that Greece is not simply a televote magnet. There is genuine jury accessibility here.
• Greece has access to a very broad pool of high scores from both juries and televoters.
• In a very static pre-rehearsal season, Greece is one of the few entries that feels like it is building momentum rather than merely holding position.

Why it might not

• The staging could fail to elevate the song.
• The Balkan/Eastern vote may fragment across Moldova, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania and Albania.
• A runaway jury winner could cap its ceiling.

Data angle

My model had Greece above 175 jury points even before Eurojury began.

If jury points are diluted again this year, a jury top-three finish is entirely realistic. And if Greece clears the staging hurdle, it has the highest raw ceiling in the field.

Bottom line: Greece is currently the entry to beat.

(And yes — I’m Greek, so full disclosure applies.)

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2. France

Juries: 2nd — 190–225
Televote: 4th — 150–175
Projected total: 340–400

Why it can win

• France is not only selling a song this year — it is selling Monroe.
• If the staging finds the sweet spot between intimacy and polish, France could hit the same cross-constituency zone that helped recent French contenders perform strongly.
• The usual elite jury roadblocks are less dominant in this year’s field.

Why it might not

• France has a long history of overthinking staging.
• The song itself may not feel sufficiently distinctive.
• There may be a degree of “opera fatigue” in the market.

Data angle

France has quietly been one of the most statistically resilient countries of the 50/50 era.

It has repeatedly:

• finished in the jury top three
• finished in the televote top four
• collected points from a very broad geographic spread

That matters.

The fan bubble may have cooled on France too quickly.

If rehearsals land, France is absolutely live.

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3. Finland

Juries: 3rd — 170–200
Televote: 3rd — 160–190
Projected total: 330–390

Why it can win

• Finland is the cleanest compromise candidate between juries and televoters.
• It leads the pre-rehearsal market and fan polls.
• It already looks like a finished, high-impact package.

Why it might not

• Pre-rehearsal favourites often underperform once the live contest begins.
• It did not dominate Eurojury.
• There are structural televote constraints in its regional scoring environment.

Data angle

The core question is not whether Finland can score well.

The question is whether it has enough of a “call to action” to become a winner rather than merely a very strong top-three finisher.

At the moment, I still think Finland’s clearest route runs through the juries.

And that is not guaranteed.

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4. Australia

Juries: 1st — 200–230
Televote: 7th — 100–125
Projected total: 300–355

Why it can win

• Australia has the strongest jury-winning profile in the field.
• It is one of the few jury-friendly entries in English.
• If the public connects enough, the maths become very interesting.

Why it might not

• The song may read as slightly dated.
• Australia historically tends to struggle more with televoters than with juries.

Data angle

Australia’s winning path is very simple:

It probably needs something close to a jury landslide.

If it gets near 300 jury points, the contest opens dramatically.

Without that, the televote deficit may simply be too large.

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My current pre-rehearsal model

These are the four entries that I believe currently have a realistic winning path.

There are also strong podium-threat profiles — especially Israel, Denmark and Ukraine — but for now I still see them as needing more things to break perfectly.

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Full Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

Rank	Country	Total	Juries	Televote
1	Greece	390–450	160–180	230–270
2	France	340–400	190–225	150–175
3	Finland	330–390	170–200	160–190
4	Australia	300–355	200–230	100–125
5	Israel	250–300	50–70	200–230
6	Denmark	235–285	170–200	65–85
7	Ukraine	185–230	60–80	125–150
8	Moldova	170–220	40–60	130–160
9	Italy	160–200	70–90	90–110
10	Malta	130–175	120–150	10–25
11	Cyprus	130–170	50–70	80–100
12	Albania	125–170	65–85	60–85
13	Romania	100–145	40–60	60–85
14	Switzerland	85–125	80–110	5–15
15	Norway	80–120	50–70	30–50
16	Sweden	80–120	50–70	30–50
17	Bulgaria	75–110	35–50	40–60
18	Lithuania	45–65	25–35	20–30
19	United Kingdom	30–60	15–35	15–25
20	Serbia	35–55	15–25	20–30
21	Estonia	30–50	20–30	10–20
22	Portugal	30–50	20–30	10–20
23	Montenegro	25–45	10–20	15–25
24	Germany	10–30	5–15	5–15
25	Austria	0–20	0–10	0–10

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Betting positions

This year I took a slightly different approach.

I entered early positions on:

• Greece
• France
• Australia

Part of those positions were taken even before the songs were released.

At current prices:

• Greece returns roughly 500% ROI (total investment)
• France returns roughly 300% ROI (total investment)
• Australia returns roughly 300% ROI (total investment)

Other open positions:

• Moldova Top 10
• Denmark Top 5 lay
• Sweden Top 10–15 lay

I have intentionally kept around 70% of my bankroll uncommitted, with the aim of deploying roughly half of that during Eurovision week, when rehearsals usually create the biggest inefficiencies.

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Final thought

This is the last ranking built mostly on song strength, structural voting pathways and pre-rehearsal data.

From today onward, Eurovision becomes a live-market sport.

A clever camera cut can add 40 points.
A weak first rehearsal can erase 80.

And that is exactly why this part of the season is so much fun.

Let’s see who survives contact with the stage.

Don't miss the Talk About ESC Things podcast episodes with our Pre-rehearsals prediction about the Jury Top-10 with Ben Robertson from ESCInsight as a special guest and the Televote Top-10 episode with Rob Furber from entertainmentodds.

Know Your Numbers 2026 Edition - Part 1

 

Eurovision Voting Analysis: High Scores, Top-3 Patterns and National Tendencies

Every year, Eurovision delivers memorable performances, dramatic scoreboards and endless debate about how countries vote. While final rankings tell one story, a deeper understanding comes from examining where nations place their highest scores — the famous 12, 10 and 8 points.

This study focuses on the Top-3 scores awarded by each country through both the jury vote and the public televote. These numbers help explain how different countries approach voting, whether they reward consensus favourites, regional neighbours, diaspora-linked acts, or entries that appeal to distinct national tastes.

By keeping the full statistical structure for each country, we can compare voting behaviour more accurately and identify long-term trends.

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Albania

Jury Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 5/9
• Jury Winner in the Top-3: 6/9
• Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 6/9
• Jury Top-3 entries included in the total of Top-3s: 13/27
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 14
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 6

12 Points Distribution

• Italy x3
• Switzerland x2
• Australia x1
• North Macedonia x1
• Sweden x1
• France x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

• Italy 5/9
• Switzerland 4/6
• France 3/9

Public Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 1/9
• Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 4/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 2/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 10/27
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 15
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 6

12 Points Distribution

• Italy x3
• Greece x2
• Australia x1
• Russia x1
• Switzerland x1
• Croatia x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

• Italy 9/9
• Greece 3/6
• Croatia 2/4
• Bulgaria 2/5

Overview

Albania shows a clear long-term preference for Italy in both voting groups. The juries tend to follow broader Eurovision consensus choices, while the televote more strongly rewards regional and neighbouring countries.

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Armenia

Jury Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 1/8
• Jury Winner in the Top-3: 4/8
• Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 8/8
• Jury Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 12/24
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 13
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 5

12 Points Distribution

• France x3
• Sweden x2
• Portugal x1
• Spain x1
• Israel x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

• France 3/8
• Sweden 3/8
• Italy 3/8
• Portugal 3/7

Public Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 1/8
• Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 4/8
• Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 3/8
• Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 9/24
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 13
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 5

12 Points Distribution

• Russia x2
• Cyprus x2
• Estonia x2
• Israel x1
• France x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

• France 4/8
• Cyprus 3/6

Overview

Armenia has one of the strongest jury records for rewarding elite-performing entries, having always given its jury 12 points to a song that finished in the jury Top-3. The public vote is more selective, with stronger support for culturally connected countries.

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Australia

Jury Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 0/8
• Jury Winner in the Top-3: 2/8
• Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 4/9
• Jury Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 9/26
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 20
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 7

12 Points Distribution

• Sweden x2
• Belgium x2
• United Kingdom x1
• Malta x1
• Spain x1
• Ireland x1
• Greece x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

• Sweden 3/9

Public Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 5/9
• Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 6/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 7/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 12/27
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 16
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 7

12 Points Distribution

• Israel x3
• Belgium x1
• Moldova x1
• Norway x1
• Iceland x1
• Ukraine x1
• Finland x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

• Israel 3/8
• Sweden 3/9

Overview

Australia’s juries are highly independent and widely spread, having included 20 countries in their jury Top-3 rankings. The televote is more aligned with broader public trends and often favours Nordic, Baltic and Israeli entries.

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Austria

Jury Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 4/7
• Jury Winner in the Top-3: 7/7
• Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 6/9
• Jury Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 14/25
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 17
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 9

12 Points Distribution

• Finland x1
• Switzerland x1
• Italy x1
• United Kingdom x1
• Iceland x1
• North Macedonia x1
• Israel x1
• Netherlands x1
• Australia x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

• Switzerland 3/6
• Netherlands 3/7
• Sweden 3/9

Public Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 4/9
• Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 7/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 5/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 12/27
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 19
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 9

12 Points Distribution

• Germany x1
• Croatia x1
• Finland x1
• Ukraine x1
• Serbia x1
• Switzerland x1
• Czechia x1
• Portugal x1
• Poland x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

• Italy 4/9
• Serbia 3/7

Overview

Austria is one of the most evenly spread voters in Eurovision. It has awarded 12 points to a different country each year in both jury and televote, making it one of the least predictable countries.

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Azerbaijan

Jury Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Jury Winners: 2/9
• Jury Winner in the Top-3: 5/9
• Jury Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 3/9
• Jury Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 8/27
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 19
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 6

12 Points Distribution

• Russia x3
• Israel x2
• Belarus x1
• Albania x1
• United Kingdom x1
• Switzerland x1

Most Voted Countries in Jury Top-3

• Russia 3/3
• Albania 2/5
• Israel 2/8
• Ukraine 2/8
• Sweden 2/9
• Italy 2/9

Public Vote

• Sets of 12 points awarded to Public Vote Winners: 5/9
• Public Vote Winner in the Top-3: 8/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries awarded with sets of 12 points: 6/9
• Public Vote Top-3 entries included in total Top-3s: 17/27
• Number of countries voted in the Top-3: 17
• Number of countries awarded 12 points: 5

12 Points Distribution

• Israel x4
• Russia x2
• Croatia x1
• Ukraine x1
• Bulgaria x1

Most Voted Countries in Public Top-3

• Israel 4/8
• Ukraine 4/8

Overview

Azerbaijan shows one of the clearest jury-televote contrasts. The juries are less aligned with overall frontrunners, while the televote strongly backs popular mainstream contenders, especially Israel and Ukraine.

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What These Patterns Tell Us About Eurovision

1. Juries and Publics Often Behave Like Two Different Countries

In many nations, jury and televote choices differ substantially. Albania and Azerbaijan are especially clear examples.

2. Some Countries Vote Predictably

Italy receiving Albania’s televote Top-3 every year demonstrates how recurring preferences matter over time.

3. Others Are Highly Volatile

Austria spreads support widely, making annual prediction difficult.

4. Consensus Winners Still Matter

Countries whose publics repeatedly reward eventual winners often act as strong indicators of broader momentum.

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Why This Matters for Future Eurovision Predictions

When building forecasts, betting models or scoreboard simulations, looking only at past total points can miss important nuance. Top-3 allocation history helps identify:

• Reliable allies
• Jury-safe territories
• Televote hotspots
• Surprise point sources
• Countries resistant to hype

These details often become decisive in close contests.

Final Conclusions

These figures highlight that Eurovision voting is rarely random. Some countries reward excellence as recognised across Europe, others prioritise cultural affinity, and many split sharply between jury professionalism and public emotion.

Studying Top-3 score allocations offers one of the most effective ways to understand future Eurovision voting behaviour, identify dependable allies, and anticipate scoreboard momentum before the first points are even announced.

Semi Final 2: The Running Order and the Pre-everything Power Rankings

 

The running order for Semi-Final 2 allows us to integrate slot allocation into the predictive model, and the outcome is clear: this is the most competitive Semi-Final we have seen since 2019.

From a modelling perspective, this is a high-density qualification environment, where up to fourteen entries present viable qualification pathways. Unlike Semi-Final 1, which is skewed towards televote-driven entries, Semi-Final 2 is dominated by jury-oriented compositions, with a smaller number of high-efficiency televote drivers layered on top.

A second key structural difference is the distribution of competitive strength across the running order. Semi-Final 2 features a strong second half cluster, which introduces downward pressure on the televote ceilings of early performers such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Armenia.

The model therefore projects minimal separation margins between 8th and 12th place, with qualification likely determined by marginal gains across either constituency rather than dominant scoring.

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Running Order Impact

Norway emerges as the primary beneficiary of the draw across both Semi-Finals. A hybrid entry with dual-constituency appeal receives the pimp slot, significantly increasing its expected televote conversion and overall qualification certainty. While qualification was already highly probable, the draw now elevates Norway into a high-confidence qualifier with Top-5 upside.

The decision to schedule Denmark, Australia, and Ukraine consecutively (#10–#12) suggests a production buffer (likely interval or staging reset), while also clustering the three strongest contenders. Their relatively early positioning aligns with recent producer strategy: front-loading high-certainty qualifiers to create space for borderline entries later in the show.

On the negative side, Latvia and Armenia are the clearest structural losers. Latvia is trapped in a jury-saturated segment, requiring outperformance against direct competitors. Armenia, meanwhile, faces both running order compression and reduced diaspora support, significantly weakening its qualification pathway.

Romania, Luxembourg, and Czechia also experience moderate negative slot impact, while Azerbaijan remains modelled as a non-competitive baseline entry regardless of draw.

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Semi-Final 2 Analysis

(50/50 era: 2016–2025; Jury calibration: 2016–2022)

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1. Bulgaria

Model Classification: High-efficiency opener (hybrid)
Slot Impact: Positive

Bulgaria combines strong jury literacy with reliable televote conversion. As an opener, it benefits from maximum exposure while retaining competitive scoring potential across both axes.

Projection:
Juries: 60–80 pts
Public Vote: 90–110 pts
Total: 150–190 pts

Qualification Probability: >95%
Top-5 Probability: ~65%

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2. Azerbaijan

Model Classification: Non-competitive baseline
Slot Impact: Neutral

Azerbaijan continues to underperform across both constituencies, with negligible televote engagement and limited jury recovery potential.

Projection:
Juries: 5–15 pts
Public Vote: 0–10 pts
Total: 5–25 pts

Qualification Probability: <5%

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3. Romania

Model Classification: Televote-dependent hybrid
Slot Impact: Negative (early compression)

Romania relies on diaspora activation and moderate jury tolerance. The early slot reduces televote ceiling, increasing reliance on efficient point distribution.

Projection:
Juries: 35–45 pts
Public Vote: 75–90 pts
Total: 110–135 pts

Qualification Probability: ~65–75%

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4. Luxembourg

Model Classification: Jury-leaning low-ceiling entry
Slot Impact: Negative

Luxembourg enters a more competitive field with limited margin for error. Qualification requires both overperformance and underperformance elsewhere.

Projection:
Juries: 40–50 pts
Public Vote: 20–30 pts
Total: 60–80 pts

Qualification Probability: ~30–40%

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5. Czechia

Model Classification: Jury-dependent volatile entry
Slot Impact: Negative

Czechia’s qualification pathway is almost entirely jury-driven. Without a Top-5 jury finish, conversion probability drops sharply.

Projection:
Juries: 60–80 pts
Public Vote: 20–35 pts
Total: 80–115 pts

Qualification Probability: ~45–55%

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6. Armenia

Model Classification: Televote-reliant outlier
Slot Impact: Strong negative

Armenia faces both structural and contextual disadvantages. Qualification requires a high televote finish combined with minimal jury suppression.

Projection:
Juries: 15–30 pts
Public Vote: 50–75 pts
Total: 65–105 pts

Qualification Probability: ~35–45%

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7. Switzerland

Model Classification: Jury-dominant stabiliser
Slot Impact: Positive (relative uplift vs competitors)

Switzerland follows a proven model: maximise jury scoring to offset televote volatility. In a jury-heavy Semi, this increases relative strength.

Projection:
Juries: 80–105 pts
Public Vote: 15–30 pts
Total: 95–135 pts

Qualification Probability: ~70–80%

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8. Cyprus

Model Classification: High-efficiency televote driver
Slot Impact: Neutral-positive

Cyprus offers strong televote potential with sufficient jury baseline to secure qualification. Upside includes Semi-Final podium contention.

Projection:
Juries: 50–70 pts
Public Vote: 110–130 pts
Total: 160–200 pts

Qualification Probability: >95%
Top-3 Probability: ~30–40%

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9. Latvia

Model Classification: Jury-cluster competitor
Slot Impact: Negative

Latvia must outperform multiple direct competitors within a saturated jury segment. Public vote contribution remains limited.

Projection:
Juries: 60–80 pts
Public Vote: 15–30 pts
Total: 75–110 pts

Qualification Probability: ~40–50%

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10. Denmark

Model Classification: High-end hybrid contender
Slot Impact: Neutral

Denmark enters the contender cluster with strong jury upside and moderate televote support. Winning the Semi is within range, though not guaranteed.

Projection:
Juries: 100–120 pts
Public Vote: 70–90 pts
Total: 170–210 pts

Qualification Probability: >99%
Win Probability: ~15–20%

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11. Australia

Model Classification: Peak jury performer / hybrid contender
Slot Impact: Neutral-positive

Australia combines elite jury performance history with sufficient televote recovery. The model identifies this as the highest total scoring projection in the Semi.

Projection:
Juries: 140–160 pts
Public Vote: 90–110 pts
Total: 230–270 pts

Qualification Probability: >99%
Win Probability: ~30–35%

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12. Ukraine

Model Classification: Televote-dominant elite contender
Slot Impact: Neutral

Ukraine maintains one of the strongest televote baselines in Eurovision history. Jury contribution determines ceiling.

Projection:
Juries: 70–90 pts
Public Vote: 130–150 pts
Total: 200–240 pts

Qualification Probability: >99%
Win Probability: ~25–30%

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13. Albania

Model Classification: Balanced but threshold-sensitive
Slot Impact: Negative (post-contender compression)

Albania requires balanced scoring across both constituencies. Positioned after the contender cluster, visibility risk increases.

Projection:
Juries: 30–50 pts
Public Vote: 40–60 pts
Total: 70–110 pts

Qualification Probability: ~40–50%

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14. Malta

Model Classification: Jury-maximisation strategy
Slot Impact: Positive

Malta’s pathway is clear: secure a Top-5 jury result and neutralise televote weakness.

Projection:
Juries: 100–120 pts
Public Vote: 15–35 pts
Total: 115–155 pts

Qualification Probability: ~75–85%

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15. Norway

Model Classification: High-efficiency closer (hybrid)
Slot Impact: Strong positive (pimp slot)

Norway benefits most from the draw. Strong dual-constituency performance combined with final-slot recall significantly increases conversion probability.

Projection:
Juries: 80–100 pts
Public Vote: 80–100 pts
Total: 160–200 pts

Qualification Probability: >95%
Top-5 Probability: ~50–60%

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Pre-Eurojury / Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings

1. Australia — Total: 230–270 pts (Juries: 140–160, Public: 90–110)
2. Ukraine — Total: 200–240 pts (Juries: 70–90, Public: 130–150)
3. Denmark — Total: 170–210 pts (Juries: 100–120, Public: 70–90)
4. Cyprus — Total: 160–200 pts (Juries: 50–70, Public: 110–130)
5. Norway — Total: 160–200 pts (Juries: 80–100, Public: 80–100)
6. Bulgaria — Total: 150–190 pts (Juries: 60–80, Public: 90–110)
7. Malta — Total: 115–155 pts (Juries: 100–120, Public: 15–35)
8. Romania — Total: 110–135 pts (Juries: 35–45, Public: 75–90)
9. Switzerland — Total: 95–135 pts (Juries: 80–105, Public: 15–30)
10. Czechia — Total: 80–115 pts (Juries: 60–80, Public: 20–35)
11. Latvia — Total: 75–110 pts (Juries: 60–80, Public: 15–30)
12. Albania — Total: 70–110 pts (Juries: 30–50, Public: 40–60)
13. Armenia — Total: 65–105 pts (Juries: 15–30, Public: 50–75)
14. Luxembourg — Total: 60–80 pts (Juries: 40–50, Public: 20–30)
15. Azerbaijan — Total: 5–25 pts (Juries: 5–15, Public: 0–10)

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Model Outputs

• Estimated Qualification Threshold: ~95–110 points
• High Confidence Qualifiers (>90%): Australia, Ukraine, Denmark, Cyprus, Norway, Bulgaria
• Volatility Cluster (7th–13th): Malta, Romania, Switzerland, Czechia, Latvia, Albania, Armenia
• Low Probability Group: Luxembourg, Azerbaijan