It has been a while since the last time that there was a 'Know Your Numbers' edition regarding the Grand Final results and I do reckon that we need one in an open year like this one.
Eurovision is all about sentiments and feelings and how these two translate into points.
We do have the same voting system since 2016, with a 50/50 split between Juries and Televote, with the latest addition of the Rest of the World voting as well, giving an upper hand to the viewers so the split this year is actually 49.3-50.7.
Even though we do have available the split results from 2009, with the exception of 2013, I do prefer to work with the data available from 2014 up to date which is the producers' era (producers deciding the running order) that does play a part when we analyze the point averages for the top.
So let's start the deep dive in numbers and I do hope that you will find this post useful when you are calculating the possibilities and the winning paths for you favorites and your covers.
The Ranking Averages
Winners
In 9 editions we have never had a Winner that ranked lower than 3rd with the Public vote and lower than 4th with the Juries.
There were only 2 winners that won both constituencies ('14 Austria, '17 Portugal) and 2 more that failed to win any of the two ('16 Ukraine 2nd/2nd, '19 Netherlands 3rd/2nd).
The average Jury ranking for the Winner is 2.2 and 1.6 with the Public Vote.
Runner-ups
The average Jury ranking for the 2nd place is 3.1 and for the Public Vote 2.6.
There are 2 Jury winners ('16 Australia, '22 UK) and 2 Public Vote winners ('15 Italy, '23 Finland) in this list.
There is no runner-up that ranked lower than 6th with the Juries ('15 Italy) and lower than 5th with the Public Vote ('22 UK).
Third Place
The first and only rank in Top-6 where the Jury average is better than the Public Vote's, 3.8 vs 4.4.
The only podium result that finished out of Top-10 with a constituency is '18 Austria (J:1st - PV: 13th) and the only podium result that finished out of Top-3 with both constituencies is '19 Russia (J:9th - PV:4th).
There are 2 Jury winners in this list ('18 Austria, '21 Switzerland) and just 1 PV winner ('16 Russia).
General Facts
The lower place for a Jury winner is 7th ('19 North Macedonia) and for a PV winner 6th ('19 Norway). These two are the only constituency winners that failed to finish in Top-3.
The worst place with a Jury Top-3 result is 7th ('19 North Macedonia) and with a PV Top-3 result is 8th ('16 Poland).
Regarding the Juries
I have gone a step further and did the break down of the averages of the two constituencies and where they end up with the opposite constituency and their overall result.
Jury Winners
The Jury winners have an average rank of 2.3 in Totals and 5.2 in PV. There were 2 instances in which they ranked out of Top-10 with PV ('18 Austria 13th, '19 North Macedonia 12th).
In 4/9 cases the Jury winner won the Contest as well ('14 Austria, '15 Sweden, '17 Portugal, '23 Sweden).
Between '18-'22 the Jury winners failed to finish in Top-4 in the PV.
Jury 2nd place
The discrepancy between Jury and PV rankings is even bigger when we move to the 2nd place that averages 3.7 in Totals and 6.8 in PV. Only 1 winner comes from this list ('16 Ukraine).
Jury 3rd place
It has produced 2 winners ('18 Israel, '19 Netherlands), one more than the second place! It averages 5.2 in PV and 3.6 in Totals.
Jury 4th place
It has also produced 2 winners ('21 Italy, '22 Ukraine) and 2 runner ups ('19 Italy, '23 Finland) in the last four contests!!!
It has an average of 8.2 with the PV and 4.6 Overall.
PV Winners
The PV Winner has a slightly better average in Totals than the Jury one, 2 vs 2.3, and similar average in Jury 5.1.
5/9 won the Contest as well and '19 Norway is the only winner that not only failed to finish in Top-3 but went all the way down to 6th!
There are only 2 PV winners that also won the Juries ('14 Austria, '17 Portugal) and these are the only times that the PV winner finished in Jury Top-2.
PV 2nd place
3/9 winners ranked 2nd in PV ('16 Ukraine, '19 Netherlands, '23 Sweden).
Compared to Jury 2nd place, PV has a better average in Totals, 2.7 vs 3.7, and in Jury, 5.3 vs 6.8 which is another proof of PV power versus the Juries.
'21 Ukraine (5th) and '22 Moldova (7th) the only two results that did not reach the podium.
PV 3rd place
The Swedish way applies here. '15 Sweden is the only country that won the Contest finishing 3rd or lower in the PV.
Jury vs PV average rankings and who has the upper hand
It is clear that the PV has an advantage compared to the Jury rankings and secures better placings. They tend to hold their position more than the Jury high rankers that are more affected by the PV scores.
Just to give you an idea
The average ranking in Totals for the Jury and PV Top-5
Winner: J:2.3 - PV:2
2nd: J:3.7 - PV:2.7
3rd: J:3.6 - PV:3.6
4th: J:4.6 - PV:4.4
5th: J:5.9 - PV:5.4
Things look balanced here with a slight advantage for the PV high rankers but when we check the Totals Top-5 rankers and their averages with the two constituencies then we have a better view of the discrepancy between the two.
The average ranking of the Totals' Top-5 with the Jury and PV
Winner: J:2.2 - PV:1.6
2nd: J:3.1 - PV:2.6
3rd: J:3.8 - PV:4.4
4th: J:5.2 - PV:5
5th: J:8.4 - PV:5.7
What about the Points Averages?
The average rankings do provide a very clear picture of how things work and what is needed in both constituencies to win the Contest or have a winning path, but the points averages do give a higher resolution to that picture and could prove more useful when things are marginal and the race is very tight.
What I have done this year in order to draw more conclusions and get a better idea of how things could evolve in May is that I have converted all the points of the '14-'23 as if they were 37 country lineups every year for the Jury scores and a 38 country lineups for the PV scores to include the Rest of the World points as well.
This method will help me estimate/calculate better the points that the high rankers would/could receive in May.
The first finding that stands out is the amount of 300+ pts scores in both constituencies.
Jury has only 3 scores in that range:
'23 Sweden - 340
'17 Portugal - 335.4
'15 Sweden - 334.4
PV has 9 scores in that range. 2018 and 2019 were the only editions that have not produced a score of 300+.
'22 Ukraine - 416.5
'23 Finland - 376
'15 Italy - 366.2
'17 Portugal - 339.3
'16 Russia - 325.8
These are the five highest PV scores.
Moving down to the 200+ scores, the discrepancy continues in favor of the PV
Jury has scored 200+ Pts in 18 occasions while the PV has done that 23 times.
Regarding the Juries, there is only one year (2015) that the Jury has produced 4 entries with 200+ points and there are three editions ('14, '19, '22) that had 3 200+ results.
There were also two years {'16, '23) with just one country reaching the 200+ threshold.
PV on the other hand has only one case ('14) that has only 2 entries over the 200+ limit and the rest have three or more, with the maximum being 5 in 2017.
Comparing the points averages between the two constituencies
The whole post comes down to this section which is the most important and could be eye opening when it comes to the points a contender needs to secure for the win.
The Holy Grail of Eurovision stats is the combination that will secure the win and here are the average points for the Top-6 with each constituency. These are the only ranks where PV has a better average than Jury.
Winner
J: 275.9 - PV: 333.9 (+58)
2nd Place
J: 216.7 - PV: 254.1 (+37.4)
3rd Place
J: 191.6 - PV: 225.9 (+34.3)
4th Place
J: 168.3 - PV: 201.7 (+33.4)
5th Place
J: 151.6 - PV: 172.3 (+20.7)
6th Place
J: 130.8 - PV: 152.4 (+21.6)
I bet you have already noticed that the PV averages from 3rd to 6th are higher than a place higher in Jury, even finishing 2nd in PV is just 22 points short from the Jury winner.
There is also a 30+ points handicap between the two constituencies in all Top-3 spots.
We have not had a Jury winner yet that has scored more points than the PV winner.
The Holy Grail of the Eurovision stats
The magic number for any contender is 500 points. Most of the times it will be enough to secure the win.
It is clear that the Jury magnets do have a handicap but is also a fact that only the two constituency winners can reach with some combinations the 500 points.
The Jury winner combos that secure the 500 points threshold are
J:1 - PV: 2 - 530 points
J:1 - PV: 3 - 501.8 points
Things are more promising for the PV winner that has an extra path available.
PV: 1 - J:2 - 550.6 points
PV:1 - J:3 - 525.5 points
PV:1 - J:4 - 502.2 points
The Public vote has the upper hand in every scenario.
What happens if we move the threshold down to 450 points though?
The Jury winner can finish as low as 5th in PV to marginally lose the 450 mark (448.pts) while the PV could finish even 7th in Jury (459.2 pts).
Moving down to the 2nd place, the Jury side can reach it only by finishing 2nd as well in PV (470.8 pts) and the same combination applies for the PV.
J:2 - PV:3 (442.6 pts) and J:3 - PV:2 (445.7 pts) miss the threshold for a few points.
What is very clear is that only the two constituency winners have an actual chance to win the contest with the PV winner having the easiest path.
All the other combinations that do not contain the winner with any of the two constituencies rely on external factors to carve a path to victory.
The J:2 - PV: 2 would need for instance the Jury winner to finish 5th or lower in the PV and the PV winner to finish 7th or lower with the Jury at the same time.
How to predict the Eurovision Winner ? The 10 commandments
Step 1: Find the PV winner.
Step 2: Can the PV winner finish in Top-4 with the Juries?
Yes! - You have found the winner - No. - Go to Step 3.
Step 3: Find the Jury winner.
Step 4: Can the Jury winner finish in Top-3 in the PV?
Yes! - You have found the winner - No. - Go to Step 5.
Step 5: Is the J:2 - PV:2 combination possible?
Yes! - You have found the winner - No. - Go to Step 6.
Step 6: Can your PV winner finish in Top-7 in the Jury?
Yes! - You have found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 7.
Step 7: Can your PV:2 finish 3rd in the Jury?
Yes! - You have found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 8.
Step 8: Can your Jury winner finish in Top-5 in the PV?
Yes! - You have found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 9.
Step 9: Can both constituencies agree that the same entry is finishing third?
Yes! - You have found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 10.
Step 10: Start adding the potential scores with both constituencies for your contenders and the biggest total wins!
It has been a very long read full with numbers and kudos if you made it to this point.
Do not forget that the numbers mentioned above are the averages. They are a good starting point for your calculations but you will always need to adjust them to the specifics of the lineup.
Feel free to comment or ask any questions.
