In search of Eurovision transcendence

 

Eurovision 2026 Predictions: The Big Questions Every Favourite Must Answer

The Eurovision season has officially begun — and for the first time in years, the race for the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 trophy feels completely wide open.

Normally I start the season by sharing my first impressions of every entry. This year, however, I’m doing things a little differently.

Instead of covering all the songs equally, I’ll focus my analysis on around 20–25 entries with realistic qualification or winning chances.

At the same time, I want to dive deeper into something that remains surprisingly underexplored in Eurovision coverage:

the numbers behind the voting.

Statistical analysis, voting patterns, and bloc dynamics are still hugely underrepresented in Eurovision discussion — and Eurovision 2026 could become one of the most fascinating case studies in years.

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Eurovision 2026: Strong Contenders, But a Weak Middle

Compared to Eurovision 2025, the top contenders look stronger this year.

But the overall lineup tells a different story.

Roughly one third of the entries feel minimally competitive, doing just enough to fill the lineup rather than challenge for the trophy.

Some of these songs will still reach the Grand Final — simply because ten songs must qualify from each Semi-Final.

This creates a strange dynamic:

• A small group of serious contenders
• A large middle field
• And several entries unlikely to challenge for high placements

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For the Second Year in a Row: No Clear Favourite

One of the most fascinating aspects of Eurovision 2026 is the absence of a dominant frontrunner.

Despite what the betting odds suggest, no entry currently feels unstoppable.

Nothing resembles the overwhelming pre-contest momentum of:

• Loreen – “Tattoo” (2023)
• Kalush Orchestra – “Stefania” (2022)

Instead, we may be heading toward one of the most unpredictable Eurovision finals in recent memory.

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The Jury vs Televote Divide Is Now the New Normal

Another major storyline heading into Eurovision 2026 is the growing divide between juries and the public vote.

Last year’s winner illustrated this perfectly.

The song:

• Received zero sets of 12 points in the televote
• Earned only six sets of 10s and 8s combined from the public
• Still won the contest thanks to a dominant jury victory

In other words:

Winning the juries and collecting mid-range televote points was enough to take the trophy.

And that exact scenario could easily repeat in 2026.

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Two Major Changes That Could Shake Up the Voting

Two important structural changes could influence the outcome of Eurovision 2026.

1️⃣ Expanded Jury Panels

The EBU has increased jury panels from 5 members to 7 members.

Two of those jurors must now be between 18 and 25 years old, an attempt to bring jury tastes closer to the younger Eurovision audience.

Whether this actually reduces the jury–televote gap remains to be seen.

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2️⃣ Voting Blocs Are Shifting

Voting alliances may also change due to participation changes.

Returning countries:

• Bulgaria
• Romania
• Moldova

Meanwhile, five countries from Western and Central Europe have withdrawn, potentially reshaping the balance between traditional voting blocs.

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Eurovision 2026 Could Be Won on Staging

Eurovision 2025 proved something important:

When the songs are average, staging becomes the deciding factor.

The same could happen again.

Some favourites have already revealed staging concepts close to their final Eurovision performances, including:

• Finland
• Denmark

Meanwhile, others — such as France, Greece, Australia, Israel and Ukraine — are still holding their cards close.

That uncertainty could dramatically reshape the odds.

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Finland (Odds: 2.86) — Favourite With Huge Question Marks

Finland leads the betting odds, but their path to victory is far from guaranteed.

The language barrier

Can a Finnish-language song win the jury vote?

Historically, the answer is rarely yes.

The best result for a non-English, non-Latin language entry remains:

• Ukraine – “Stefania” (192 jury points)

Only two such songs appear in the Top 40 jury scores of the 50/50 voting era:

• Stefania
• Cha Cha Cha (150 points)

Finland’s jury struggles

Despite recent success, Finland has received just three sets of 12 jury points across six finals.

Several countries have never awarded Finland jury points, including:

Germany, Greece, Luxembourg, Moldova, Montenegro and Portugal.

Televote competition

Finland also faces a difficult televote landscape.

• Israel and Ukraine could command around 400 televote points combined
• Greece and Moldova have strong diaspora support

So the key question becomes:

👉 Can Finland win Eurovision without winning the juries?

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Denmark (Odds: 7.8) — The Avant-Garde Gamble

Denmark’s entry is one of the most unusual among the favourites.

Key questions include:

• Can an experimental, avant-garde song appeal to both juries and televoters?
• Will performing in Danish limit its jury appeal?
• If Nordic votes are split between Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Australia, who benefits?

Denmark also faces another challenge:

👉 Will Eastern and Balkan juries support the entry — or ignore it completely?

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France (Odds: 7.8) — The Eternal Almost-Winner

France continues to deliver high-quality entries, but the country has struggled to convert strong results into victory.

Important questions remain:

• Will France once again overthink the staging?
• Can Monroe’s charisma finally unlock televote support?
• Could Eurovision really produce three consecutive winners with operatic elements?

France may also benefit from being the only jury-oriented contender in Western Europe, potentially consolidating regional support.

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Greece (Odds: 11.5) — Eurovision’s Potential Wildcard

Greece’s entry may be the most unpredictable among the favourites.

The big questions:

• Can “Ferto” break through the language and genre barrier?
• Will juries treat it as a novelty entry and penalize it?
• Can staging emphasize the fun chaos without turning messy?

And perhaps the biggest question of all:

👉 Is Eurovision finally ready for a novelty winner?

After three consecutive runner-up finishes for fun entries, the moment might finally be coming.

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Australia (Odds: 13.5) — The Quiet Contender

Australia could quietly become a serious challenger.

Several factors work in its favour:

• It’s the only English-language song among the favourites
• That makes it more accessible for juries and casual viewers

But Australia still needs to prove it can replicate past televote success.

In both 2016 and 2019, Australia reached around 150 televote points.

Replicating that performance could open a realistic path to victory.

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Ukraine (Odds: 38) — Never Count Them Out

Ukraine always remains dangerous at Eurovision.

Key factors to watch:

• Will Ukraine invest heavily in staging?
• Will the Ukrainian diaspora mobilize again?
• Could voters once again use Eurovision to send a political or anti-war message?

If juries deliver 125–150 points, Ukraine could suddenly become a major contender.

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The Five Biggest Questions of Eurovision 2026

Beyond individual songs, several bigger questions could define the contest.

1️⃣ Is there a true standout entry?

Or will 4–6 songs fight for the trophy depending on staging and momentum?

2️⃣ Will the jury winner take the trophy again?

A fourth consecutive jury-driven victory could spark debate about Eurovision’s voting system.

3️⃣ Is this the most open contest since 2021?

The odds suggest we may be heading toward one of the closest finals in years.

4️⃣ Will a novelty entry finally win Eurovision?

Fun entries have finished second three years in a row.

Is 2026 their moment?

5️⃣ Can France finally break its Eurovision curse?

Despite multiple Top-3 finishes with both juries and televoters, France still hasn’t secured the trophy.

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Eurovision 2026 Could Deliver a Nail-Biting Final

At this stage, there are more questions than answers.

But one thing feels increasingly likely:

🎤 Eurovision 2026 could produce one of the closest results in modern Eurovision history.

A scenario where the Top 3 finish within a handful of points is entirely possible.

And if that happens, fans may witness one of the most dramatic Eurovision finales in years.

💬 What do you think?

• Who is your Eurovision 2026 winner right now?
• Which country is overrated in the betting odds?
• And which dark horse could surprise everyone?

Join the discussion below and share your predictions.

Eurovision 2026 - Semi Final 1 - Montenegro: Same old, same old...

 

Montenegro is the last bastion of resistance against qualification under the 50/50 system that was introduced in 2016 and is still holding its fort.

The last qualification dates back to 2015 and despite their good intentions and efforts are flirting with a 7th non-qualification in a row.

This year they are opting for an up-tempo entry, 'Nova Zora' aiming for the Public vote. There is still time to work on the presentation and staging of the entry, but the fact that the lyrics are in Montenegrin makes the mission almost impossible. There is too much going on on stage, the vocals are a tad more aggressive than they should and the lack of melody and charismatic performer are the final nail in the coffin.

The focus should be on the staging, making sure that they can get the low Public votes from most of the countries and make sure that they don't give the jurors  reasons to mark them down. 

It is still early to talk about qualification or non-qualification, when the field is still unknown but Montenegro has lots of work to do to qualify. 

The Good News: 

Montenegro starts the Semi Final with 25-30 secured points from Serbia and Croatia, its biggest allies in the Contest right now, plus 10-15 secured points in the Jury vote, thanks to San Marino and Greece that award them some mid to high jury votes most of the times.

These 35-45 points are a good starting point for them, keeping in mind that 85-90 points might be enough for qualification.

Even if Montenegro finishes last, it will improve its current average ranking in the 50/50 era Semi Finals! (currently 15.7)

The Bad News: 

The last time Montenegro received Public vote points from a country that was not part of the former Yugoslavia, was back in 2017!

The only time that Montenegro managed to sneak in the Top-10 of any of the two constituencies in a Semi Final was back in 2016 with the Juries (10th).

Montenegro has participated in 6 Semi Finals since 2016 and has received 0 Public vote points in 99/118 occasions and 0 Jury points in 77/99 occasions...😲

The Stats junkies' section:

Since 2016, Montenegro has received just 1 set of 12 points in the Jury vote! (Serbia '19) and just 2 sets of 12 point in Public Vote (Serbia '22, '25)

Serbia is the only country that has awarded Montenegro a set of 12 points in the last decade!

The only time that Montenegro awarded a set of 12 points to the Jury Winner both in Finals and Semi Finals was in '22, when its Jury results were cancelled and their Jury score was generated by EBU...

And Montenegro's Semi Final high points go to...

Serbia, Greece, Croatia and San Marino are destined to get the 7-12 Jury points from Montenegro with Serbia being the favourite to get their Jury 12!

Serbia is 100% the recipient of the Public vote 12 points, followed again by Croatia and Greece. 

Montenegro is the most loyal country when it comes to friends and allies regardless of the songs' merit.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Montenegro doing better than expected and finish 11th-12th in Semi Final. They still have a chance to qualify but they will need no shows/ bad entries from other countries to make it. 

Televoting Potential: 5.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 21.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: J: 25-35 - PV: 15-30 - Tot: 40-65 

F: J: 5-10 - PV: 20-30 - Tot: 25-40

Bonsoir Europe!

 

A very long but interesting season is culminating today with the Eurovision Grand Final and I reckon that this will be a nerve wracking experience for the fans and those involved in the betting process. 

Not many thing have changed in the Top-3 in the odds with Sweden leading the race all the way since February, trading in the 1.9-2.2 region for most part of the last month.

Austria is the runner up since their song release watching Sweden from some distance at 3.6-4.5. 

These two have been the steady pillars on the top. Things were a bit shakier for the third favourite with Netherlands, Israel for a short term, and France swapping places

When the running order was revealed, France shortened from the 13-14.5 region and last night traded as low as 6. 

Finland settled in as the fourth favourite and Netherlands lost some ground and is closing the Top-5. 

This is the odds reality and has been stable and throughout the season. The market implied that we have a two horse race between Sweden and Austria that could maybe turn into a three horse race, with a clear favourite though, Sweden. 

If you are a regular reader of this blog and a regular listener of the Talk About Things ESC podcast, you know that I beg to differ and have been very vocal about it. 

I do believe that tonight will be a tight race between France and Sweden, with Netherlands looking from some distance ready to grab the opportunity if given one.

The reason why the market over-estimates Sweden and under-estimates France is that investors/bettors believe that the crowd pleaser/ televote magnet entry will win because of a high PV score (330-350) points and Juries will recognise its artistry and reward it with 200+ Jury points. 

The second narrative is that if the Jury winner wins Eurovision that is Austria. My objection with than angle is that the market has chosen the most "televote friendly" jury oriented entry with many red flags around it. 

Regarding the Public vote theory of Sweden getting 330-350 points, my point is that we have many televote magnets in the mix that will face a harsh dilution. 

Sweden, Estonia, Finland are all from the same region, Germany is relatively close and Israel was the Public vote winner in that region last year. Add to the mix the full Nordic/Baltic ensemble with Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Latvia and Lithuania and securing a top mark starts feeling a tough mission and not a walk in the park. Add the Albanian, Greek and Polish diaspora in the mix and the low tier PV magnets and you get the picture. Not all of these entries will manage to gather high scores everywhere and/or consistently. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with 10 or 11 entries over the 100 points threshold. 

Even the audience poll in the arena last night suggests a tight race between the favourites.

At the same time, the jury oriented entries group is much smaller and more solid with the likes of France, Switzerland, Austria and Netherlands being able to secure some high and mid scores consistently. Italy is always up there and Greece, Albania have a free pass to the high Jury scores in the Balkan region. Sweden will be recognised and will get some solid points, but not sure it is the type of entry that will reach the 200 points threshold. 

The big mystery here is Austria and how high it could fare with them. I do think that Austria will finish 3rd with the Juries in best case scenario and that leaves the road open to France.

Here is my analysis for tonight with the key points for each country.

1. France 

Estimated Points: 490-545 (Tv: 200-225 - Juries: 290-320)

France is the favourite and always was to win the Juries.

Numbers suggest that a country voted by at least 33 countries in Jury vote, will be voted by the same amount of countries in the Public vote, not getting the high scores but the solid 4s-8s that can secure the win.

EBU has made everything in their hand to accommodate the best possible result in the Public vote and the running order suggests that. 

If they have a lead of over 125 points in the Jury vote, then I can't see how Sweden can recover from there

Path for victory: 275+ Jury pts (ideally over 300) / 200-225 PV points

2. Sweden 

Estimated Points: 420-480 (Tv: 290-320 - Juries: 130-160)

Their odds lead is more fragile than people might think and their path goes through a sustainable Jury score of over 175 points (ideally 200). A Eurovision winner has never failed to get at least 4 sets of 12 points in the Jury vote and I struggle to see Sweden reaching that crucial number.

The metrics also suggest that Sweden will not be landsliding the Public vote either. Still in the mix for the win but they need to stay close to France in the Jury vote and hope for a France fall out in the Public vote.

Sweden has a ceiling around the 500 points mark, while France has more space to grow with the Juries.

Path for victory: 175+ Jury pts (ideally over 200) / 300-325 PV points

3. Netherlands 

Estimated Points: 375-425 (Tv: 150-175 - Juries: 225-250)

The one that lost some ground and is probably already out of contention but with some solid numbers that could secure a Top-3/5 result. 

The reason I do keep Netherlands over Austria is that Claude's charisma and the song have more appeal in both constituencies than Austria in my opinion. A safe option for a Top-5 result.

Path for victory: 275+ Jury pts / 200-225 PV points

4. Austria 

Estimated Points: 290-360 (Tv: 110-130 - Juries: 180-230)

If Austria win tonight then I will have to reconsider my whole approach towards Eurovision analysis, but I don't think this will be the case. The flaws are there from the beginning, a genre that is not everyone's cup of tea, a staging that is impressive but used as a showcase for Sergio Jaen's talent and a self-indulged performer that does not connect with the viewer and makes the song a vessel to highlight his vocal abilities.

The results in the Semi Finals (Belgium/Czechia/Cyprus NQs) are a proof that the audience is not responding to this type of entries even if the staging looks impressive. Finishing 3rd is the best case scenario for them but failing to finish in Top-5 is more probable. I have laid Austria in every single market this year and have no regrets or second thoughts about their chances.

Path for victory: 275-300+ Jury pts / 200-225 PV points

These are the four countries that still have a chance to win tonight, even a very slim one. There will be an interesting battle between a few countries for the last Top-5 spot and an exciting battle for the Top-10 race with another group of countries having a chance to be there.

5. Estonia 

Estimated Points: 310-345 (Tv: 270-300 - Juries: 35-45)

6. Israel  

Estimated Points: 285-330 (Tv: 225-250 - Juries: 60-80)

7. Switzerland

Estimated Points: 240-275 (Tv: 35-45 - Juries: 240-275)

8. Albania 

Estimated Points: 225-285 (Tv: 125-150 - Juries: 110-135)

9. Germany 

Estimated Points: 210-245 (Tv: 175-200 - Juries: 35-45)

10. Finland 

Estimated Points: 185-220 (Tv: 150-175 - Juries: 35-45)

11. Ukraine

Estimated Points: 170-210 (Tv: 120-140 - Juries: 50-70)

12. Greece

Estimated Points: 150-195 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 90-115)

13. Poland 

Estimated Points: 130-165 (Tv: 125-150 - Juries: 5-15)

14. Italy

Estimated Points: 110-140 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 80-100)

15. Lithuania 

Estimated Points: 90-115 (Tv: 50-65 - Juries: 40-50)

16. Portugal

Estimated Points: 60-75 (Tv: 20-25 - Juries: 40-50)

17. Malta 

Estimated Points: 55-75 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 25-35)

18. Luxembourg 

Estimated Points: 55-70 (Tv: 15-20 - Juries: 40-50)

19. Spain

Estimated Points: 50-70 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 20-30)

20. Norway 

Estimated Points: 45-65 (Tv: 35-45 - Juries: 10-20)

21. Denmark 

Estimated Points: 35-50 (Tv: 20-25 - Juries: 15-25)

22. Latvia 

Estimated Points: 35-50 (Tv: 5-10 - Juries: 30-40)

23. Armenia 

Estimated Points: 30-45 (Tv: 15-20 - Juries: 15-25)

24. San Marino 

Estimated Points: 30-45 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 0-5)

25. UK 

Estimated Points: 20-35 (Tv: 0-5 - Juries: 20-30)

26. Iceland 

Estimated Points: 20-30 (Tv: 15-20 - Juries: 5-10)

My positions

I have been a solid backer of the France - Netherlands duo, having a big position with both of them and some solid investments for both of them in the Top-3/5 markets (Top-3 Fra 2.76 / Neth 4.21, Top-4 Fra 2.5/Neth 2.91, Top-5 Neth 2.40)

These Top-3/5 investments could be enough to cover my whole investment in winner market without any trading in a case of a max red position (Austria/Finland/Estonia).

I do have a considerable bet for France to win the Juries @4 and my my other strong positions are Albania's Top-10 (2.26), Switzerland's Top-10 (2.36) and Germany for Top-15 (2.19) and Top-10 (5.17) and Greece's Top-10 (4.6) 

Landing two of these investments would generate a positive outcome despite having 0 returns in winner's market. 

Germany/Albania Top-5 (20.3 /8.2) would be the cherry on top. I have used some combo bets to cover Sweden, and would be open for some on play cover during the voting.

In the last place market I have a group of entries that could end-up there (Iceland @9.33, San Marino@26, Latvia@55, Luxembourg@36.4, Malta@64.5)

Betting Time

I had some good results this year with a few open bets whose outcome we will find tonight.

For Semi Final 1 I tipped

Estonia To Win SF-1 @ 9.2 x 20 units

Norway NQ @ 5.22 (lay 1.22) x 50 units

Slovenia Q @ 1.90 x 30 units

with Estonia still open 

For Semi Final 2 I tipped

Luxembourg to Finish in Top-3 @ 4.7 x 25 units (Exchange)

Czechia to Not Qualify @ 2.38 x 50 units (bet365)

Serbia/Armenia/Lithuania/Luxembourg Combo to Qualify @ 5.04 x 25 units

with Czechia securing a return of 119 units and Serbia costing me a great profit.

And now the big time. Like every year I have a 800 units investment available for the Final plus the 119 units from Semi - Final 2, making it a total of 919 units.

I have decided this year to keep it simple. Not many bets, but just a handful focused ones.

Grand Final Tips

France to Win @7 x 319 units (Betfair Exchange)

Netherlands to Finish in Top-5 @2.54 x 200 units (Betfair Exchange)

Winner Without Sweden to be France@ 3.05 x 200 units (Betfair Exchange)

Albania to Finish in Top-5 @ 3.50 x 200 units (Betfair Exchange)

Good luck with your investments tonight and I wish you had fun reading these posts and listening our podcast episodes.

 

For Those looking for more info, I do recommend this post I published yesterday about the voting patterns in the Jury vote.

Know your numbers - Eurovision '25 Edition

 

The time when the real Eurovision begins is here! The running order has been revealed, with some 'winners' (France, Sweden, Netherlands, Austria, Albania) and 'losers' there (Estonia, Israel)

The dust, or maybe cork?, has not settled yet but no matter who wins tomorrow night, we are heading to a very tight race and not many people have realised that yet. 

The market definitely hasn't, otherwise the odds for the quartet leading the odds, would have been closer to each other.

My analysis will try to shed some light regarding how countries are performing when voting for the Jury vote.

I have collected their Top-3 marks and tried to locate the ones that are more accurate at rewarding the high scores to the Winners and Top-3 finishers.

I will focus on the Jury voting only because it could be proved useful during the voting tomorrow night.

Before start digging in the numbers, I need to highlight that there are many fallacies and stereotypes out there regarding how the countries vote and my findings prove that. Countries tend to give their 12s in a vast array of countries and not always follow the neighbour/ally approach. Of course there are a few countries that still do that and vote locally but not in the extent you could expect them to. 

I will give you a classic example to demonstrate my point Greece and Cyprus have given their Jury 12s to 5 different countries each in that 8 year span! And yes, sometimes one of them was not in the Final but I bet that if I had asked the question in a poll, people would reply 2 or 3 in best case scenario.

Let's dive!

The 8/8 (7/7) Jury Club

This is the list of countries that have awarded their set of 12 Jury points in 8 or 7 different countries, voting for a different country anytime! The exclusive members of this club are:

8/8 Austria, Georgia, Italy, Norway, Serbia, Sweden

7/7 Portugal, Ukraine

All these countries are awarding their 12 in a different country every year!

The 'We like diversity 7/8 for our Jury Winner' Club

7/8 Australia, Belgium, Iceland, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, San Marino, Spain, Switzerland

This is the most popular group of all and the two groups combined together make up for the 19/37 countries competing. Juries like diversity!

The 'We might have a special friend' (75%Club)

6/8 Albania, Azerbaijan, Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Moldova, Slovenia, UK, Armenia (5/7)

And this is where some of the usual suspects start to show up, but we are still talking about 5 or 6 different countries selected for the set of 12.

30/37 countries have awarder their set of 12 points at least in 6 different countries for the Jury vote.

The 'Look, we have a special someone and don't want to cheat on them' Club

5/8 Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Greece, Montenegro (3/5) 

Greece and Cyprus yes but there is a worse couple you did not expect to see down there...

The 'We are taken'  or the 'We are the Sweden's groupies' Club

4/8 Estonia

3/8 Finland

You mentioned diversity so far, but what about accuracy?

And this part of my analysis could be used as a guide for when the voting is happening to check for some signs. There isn't a country that hands their Jury 12pts consistently to the Jury Winner. 

In fact there are only 8 countries that have a 50% or slightly better record on accuracy and the champions on this list will surprise you.

This is where the biased/friends/allies factors kick in and makes the results a bit more predictable, with countries voting for different countries but these countries usually are neighbours or allies and Surprise, surprise the Public vote has a better percent of accuracy when awarding their 12 points!

Let's check who are the best performers in handing their set of 12s to the Jury Winner.

The 50+% Club

5/8 Albania, Lithuania

4/7 Austria, UK

4/8 Estonia, Israel, Netherlands

3/6 Switzerland

There is no point of adding the mid of the table predictors, but there is a point of adding the list of countries that fail to award the top mark to the Jury Winner.

The 'I have no idea what my Jury is doing' Club

0/8 Australia!!!

0/5 Montenegro

1/8 Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Norway, San Marino

1/7 Armenia

1/6 Portugal

Australia, a country that has been heavily backed by Juries throughout the years to achieve great or good results, has failed to the day to award the Jury Winner their 12 points!

Things are getting better when instead of checking for the sets of 12 points for the Jury Winner, we check for Top-3 rankings. The percentage of accuracy there is way better and this is the list I will have in mind during the voting. Checking particular countries' Top-3 jury ranks to identify Jury contenders. 

This is the list where you want to see Sweden, Austria, France and Netherlands performing and will be the indicator/decisive factor of their performance

Including the Jury Winner in our Top-3 result every year aka the 'We know our Job' Club

7/7 Austria and UK

The only countries that have included the Jury winner in their Top-3 every time! I bet you did not expect UK to be up there! It will be interesting to see if Austria will vote tactically, now that is among the favourites.

The 'We are consistent at including the Jury Winner in our Top-3' Club

7/8 Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania

This little group here is the one I am looking forward the most to check how they will vote. I have my spreadsheet ready already.

6/8 Albania, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Israel, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Spain

5/7 Sweden, Ukraine

The 'Who cares about objective criteria? We know better' Club

0/5 Montenegro

The only country that has not yet included the Jury Winner in their Top-3 results! If a country is in that list, is doomed!

1/8 Greece 

Awarding Cyprus year after year is one thing, failing to include the Jury Winner in your Top-3 is another! And Greece is very consistent there as well. The only country that makes that Top-3 and is not doomed is Albania!

2/8 Australia, France

We talked about Australia already, and now it is France's turn! France has regularly been a contender in for the Jury win and has consistently voted strategically by blanking or marking down the other contenders. Portugal, Greece or Luxembourg taking France's Jury 12 incoming...

I do have a feeling that tomorrow night we will be watching the most interesting Jury voting for some time and I expect a very tight race for the overall winner. But more about that in tomorrow's post...

Kiss Kiss and Goodbye!

 One of the most open and unpredictable  Semi - Finals since the 2nd Semi back in 2018 will taka place tonight and get ready for a bumpy ride, especially if your favourite/country is in that Semi.

With the exception of Georgia and Montenegro, every other country is in the mix for qualification and does have a chance to make it to the Final. 

I do not remember a Semi - Final where only 3 or 4 countries were considered safe/certain qualifiers.

Not many things changed compared to the Power Rankings from last week with a notable exception. 

So let's take it away!

1. Israel

The elephant is still in the room and, until further notice, their Public vote appeal should be taken seriously. A beautiful song that could be a Top-10 entry any other year, now is elevated in a Top-5 contender. 

A RAI leak is not expected this year so I am playing safe here. To win the Semi - Final @1.86 has no value (last year was trading @20-30). If you think that their televote appeal has faded, a lay would be the right call. A no call for me.

Projected points: 140-160

2. Finland

The pimp slot, the epic staging and Erika Vikman's performance are the perfect combo for a great result in a Public vote only environment. 

They do have a chance for the Semi - Final win currently @ 3.15 that could create some momentum for the Final. Fair price.

Projected points: 130-150

3. Austria

Not sold in that entry and I do believe that is way more vulnerable as a favourite than people might think. Black and white is not working in my opinion, giving to the performance a forced feeling of making art for art's sake. I'm not impressed with JJ's voice despite being an opera singer and the lack of charisma is evident. 

This is the make or break moment for Austria's chances to contend and I am not very confident for their chances. To Finish in Top-3 in the Semi Final is currently trading @1.64 (2.56 to Not finish Top-3) and I do have a strong position built the last month @3.75 plus a fun bet at stoiximan (for those betting in Greece and Cyprus ) for Austria not to finish in Top-5 in Semi @7.

Projected points: 100-120

4. Luxembourg

Luxembourg is creating a school of entries that do the basics very well, go under the radar for the whole season and then they turn up when it matters. Laura Thorn owns the stage and Luxembourg does have a chance to sneak in the Top-3 of the Semi, currently @4.7 has a decent value. It is added in my book, the same with a fun bet to win the Semi @ 361 👀 now @60.

Projected points: 100-120

5. Australia

The other 'winner' of the rehearsals, solidifying its candidacy for a Top-10 spot in the Final. Fun but also credible, traditionally supported by the Juries, Australia could do very well with both constituencies.

Almost certain qualifier but there is no value in these odds. 

 Projected points: 80-100

6. Lithuania

I had Lithuania a bit higher last week. It is one of my favourite entries of the year. It is oozing quality but could be perceived as too dark for Eurovision. Lithuania has enough friends in the Semi to sail to the Final, but crazier things have happened and for that reason I leave Lithuania alone for the moment.

Projected points: 70-90

7. Malta

The roller coaster with Malta through the season continues. Going all in with the kitch/trash presentation might have been a step too further and could risk their qualifying chances because it is Malta that has traditionally suffered with the public. To qualify @1.23 feels very short and there is value in opposing it.

Projected points: 50-80

8. Armenia

The combination of its staging in a very friendly Semi and the running order, after a bunch of meh entries, is ideal to secure the qualification @2 and was around the 2.5 mark just yesterday. 

The current price is fair but I have it in my book @2.45. 

Projected points: 45-65

9.  Greece

Greece is still borderline but they have done their best to give themselves a chance. I still believe that it will need the diaspora the make the cut and still unsure if they will show up. I have a considerable position in the NQ and I might consider do some trading during the show. 

The Q is currently @ 1.36 implying that there is still a chance to miss the Final. If traders smell blood there this could become tricky. Klavdia has been strong vocally yesterday.

Projected points: 40-60

10. Serbia

Serbia loves to send entries that will always be the definition of borderline usually finishing 8th-10th. Serbia has done everything in their hand to increase their chances but they will need once again the diaspora and their friends.

Projected points: 40-60

11. Ireland

Still in the mix for qualification but this is a very bizarre entry and I fail to see who will actually pick the phone and vote for this one. The early draw does not help either. I have a small position on its Non qualification but there is no value in its current odds so I will just leave alone, unless the Irish show up on live and then lay becomes a value bet...One to watch during the show...

Projected points: 30-50

12. Latvia

Another entry that has a decent chance and is still in the mix for qualification thanks to the stunning vocals, the aerial/out of this planet staging and its authenticity. 

However, there is no value in its current price. Early draw a disadvantage as well.

Projected points: 25-45

13. Denmark

5 years, 5 Non qualifications and the streak will continue. An underwhelming national final staging that is barely changed for Eurovision and coming after France does not help at all. 

Not real value in non-qualification but could be used in combos with other NQs to boost your odds...

Projected points: 20-40

14. Czechia

And here we are! I have laid Czechia as low as 1.15 at one point and been laying throughout the last month. All metrics point to its non-qualification and after Belgium's result on Tuesday and Belgium's result with Mustii last year, we do have a pattern now with songs being snubbed by the public when the song/artist is very self-indulged making the song about them and not the other way around. 

This is my biggest position for tonight and one of the biggest positions I have ever had in a Semi Final. The NQ is still @2.38 in bet365.

Projected points: 15-35

15. Montenegro

Projected points: 15-30

16. Georgia

Projected points: 10-20

Betting Time

Semi Final 1 was a mixed bag getting 7/10 correct qualifiers and hit and missed my 2/3 bets. Norway was always a longer shot but I am gutted for Slovenia that I have read wrong. 

However there is still an open bet with Estonia to win Semi 1 @9.2 that could be enough to secure a good profit.

100 more units to spend tonight, 800 left for the Final. There are many options for tonight and I had opted for the riskier road which always offers better values.

Luxembourg to Finish in Top-3 @ 4.7 x 25 units (Exchange)

Czechia to Not Qualify @ 2.38 x 50 units (bet365)

Serbia/Armenia/Lithuania/Luxembourg Combo to Qualify @ 5.04 x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight! 

Don't forget to listen to the 12th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos where we talk about the aftermath of Semi Final 1 and share some thoughts about tonight.

You can find the episode here

Photo: Corinne Cumming

Strobe in, Lighter out

 

The time has come to decide for my 10 finalists from Semi - Final 1. Like every year, reality/casuals/tangible info have kicked in and odds are different compared to last week.

There were a few tweaks compared to the Power Rankings from last week, with Belgium being the most important one. I am happy to own my mistakes/miscalculations and admit that Belgium has a solid Q entry, not sure about the mad price in the Winner's market.

The other change of mind since last week is switching Azerbaijan with Iceland now making the Top-10 cut. Azerbaijan failed to show up for a third year in a row and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish last in Semi - Final.

All in all a decent Semi - Final with 9 countries that I consider safe and then a group of 3 fighting for the last ticket.

So let's start digging!

1. Estonia

Oooops! I have a typo or maybe not. I think that Estonia will shine tonight with the casuals watching/hearing this for the first time. It could finish 2nd or 3rd for sure, but winning the Semi - Final sometimes is easier because of its size and special circumstances that always leave some space for some out of the blue results. Last year Armenia finished 3rd over Switzerland to get the picture. Israel and Netherlands in the same Semi were close to each other as well so having a country @1.23 and the other @9.2 does not make much sense and the value is obviously at the latter so Estonia @9.2 it is!

Projected points: 150-170

2. Sweden 

The big favourite. Great entry, lots of fun there! Will be a solid Top-2 Public vote entry in the Final but I do think the expectations have been a bit higher. It does a have a ceiling in the Public vote and the sky is not the limit. Could very well win tonight but their odds pose no value.

This is the time to check if their charting and views will continue in the post-Melfest trajectory. 

Projected points: 145-165

3. Netherlands

Nothing has changed from my prediction last week but this entry went through hell and fire the past week in social media and various markets, until last night that we saw the whole three minutes and all suspicions disappeared.

Claude is hands down the most charismatic performer in the '25 line-up and Netherlands are getting ready to launch in contender's trajectory. 

Top-3 in Semi - Final is currently @1.83 in the Exchange, I got matched @3s the previous days and obviously there is no value there now. 

One to watch for the after SF metrics.

Projected points: 120-140

4. Albania

My favourite entry of the year! They are in for a great result and expect big things from them, but the reaction was not the expected one. In Top-10 trajectory for the Final for sure but we need to wait for after tonight to see if it also clicks with the casuals like Shum did after its Semi - Final. 

Currently trading @2.2 for the Top-3 and it does have a decent chance to finish there but there is no value in that price. I do have it @2.75 in my book having a decent return hedging between Albania and Netherlands @2.75 and 3+. 

Projected points: 110-135

5. Poland

Give me a big name and some crazy visuals and diaspora will provide for you! Justyna has been shaky vocally yesterday but who cares! Juries hate Poland either way so why not go all in with the visuals to milk the Public vote? If Blanka managed to finish 3rd in the Semi - Final in '23 why not Justyna in the Top-5? 

Ps: for those having access to stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus, Poland to finish in the Sf-5 Top is trading at 3.75. ( I have topped up at that price after my initial position at 4.5)

Projected points: 80-110

6. Ukraine

The elephant in the room. You cannot under estimate their Public vote appeal and you have to consider them a powerhouse. I am not touching Ukraine in any market this year, at least not before Saturday.

That said...

Projected points: 70-90

7. Cyprus

An entry that was created for stage. A bit generic without a meaning? Yes, but the show is there and the pimp slot will do the rest. 

Sailing to the Final but not sure what and if it will  have any impact.

Projected points: 60-80

8. Slovenia

Happy for this one as it was clear from its National Final that this is an entry that will do well and not the fans' cup of tea. A sentimental entry that will touch many chords with Klemen and his wife on stage. 

My position is @2.67 and it's currently trading @1.90. Still value there now that we have seen the songs.

Projected points: 50-70

9. Belgium

The biggest improvement of the Semi -Final. Sailing to the Final as well with some impressive choreo, however it is not the masterpiece that many thing it is. It will get a boost from the Juries in the Final as well but there is too much competition for these PV points.

 Projected points: 50-70

10. Iceland

I had them 11th in my Power Rankings projection but I do think that they win the battle with Norway for the last ticket. Pure fun, lots of energy and an impressive Minecraft inspired staging will be enough for them to qualify. Currently trading @2.42...

Not a certain qualifier mostly because of the running order but we have seen crazier things happening. 

Projected points: 40-60

11. Norway

I had Norway's NQ in my book since its LEP appearance and never looked back. It can still qualify but trading as low as 1.15 and currently @1.22 is the value bet of this Semi. This is my biggest position with Slovenia and winning just one of these two bets will be enough for some decent returns tonight.

Projected points: 30-50

12. San Marino

It has been better than expected and I will not be surprised if they finally make the cut for the Final but this is more of an arena entry and the rooting for a different country in your song still feels funny. 

Still not sure where they will find the 50 points they will need...

Projected points: 25-45

Not much to comment for the remaining three entries that could potentially finish higher than the Bottom-3 but not anywhere near the qualification threshold.

13. Portugal

Projected points: 15-35

14. Croatia

Projected points: 10-30

15. Azerbaijan 

Projected points: 10-25

Betting Time

Like every yearI have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

So my 100 units for Semi Final 1 will go to

Estonia To Win SF-1 @ 9.2 x 20 units

Norway NQ @ 5.22 (lay 1.22) x 50 units

Slovenia Q @ 1.90 x 30 units

Good luck to your bets and favourites tonight! Stay tuned tomorrow for a new episode of Talk About ESC/Things podcast with the SF-1 aftermath!