Kiss Kiss and Goodbye!

 One of the most open and unpredictable  Semi - Finals since the 2nd Semi back in 2018 will taka place tonight and get ready for a bumpy ride, especially if your favourite/country is in that Semi.

With the exception of Georgia and Montenegro, every other country is in the mix for qualification and does have a chance to make it to the Final. 

I do not remember a Semi - Final where only 3 or 4 countries were considered safe/certain qualifiers.

Not many things changed compared to the Power Rankings from last week with a notable exception. 

So let's take it away!

1. Israel

The elephant is still in the room and, until further notice, their Public vote appeal should be taken seriously. A beautiful song that could be a Top-10 entry any other year, now is elevated in a Top-5 contender. 

A RAI leak is not expected this year so I am playing safe here. To win the Semi - Final @1.86 has no value (last year was trading @20-30). If you think that their televote appeal has faded, a lay would be the right call. A no call for me.

Projected points: 140-160

2. Finland

The pimp slot, the epic staging and Erika Vikman's performance are the perfect combo for a great result in a Public vote only environment. 

They do have a chance for the Semi - Final win currently @ 3.15 that could create some momentum for the Final. Fair price.

Projected points: 130-150

3. Austria

Not sold in that entry and I do believe that is way more vulnerable as a favourite than people might think. Black and white is not working in my opinion, giving to the performance a forced feeling of making art for art's sake. I'm not impressed with JJ's voice despite being an opera singer and the lack of charisma is evident. 

This is the make or break moment for Austria's chances to contend and I am not very confident for their chances. To Finish in Top-3 in the Semi Final is currently trading @1.64 (2.56 to Not finish Top-3) and I do have a strong position built the last month @3.75 plus a fun bet at stoiximan (for those betting in Greece and Cyprus ) for Austria not to finish in Top-5 in Semi @7.

Projected points: 100-120

4. Luxembourg

Luxembourg is creating a school of entries that do the basics very well, go under the radar for the whole season and then they turn up when it matters. Laura Thorn owns the stage and Luxembourg does have a chance to sneak in the Top-3 of the Semi, currently @4.7 has a decent value. It is added in my book, the same with a fun bet to win the Semi @ 361 👀 now @60.

Projected points: 100-120

5. Australia

The other 'winner' of the rehearsals, solidifying its candidacy for a Top-10 spot in the Final. Fun but also credible, traditionally supported by the Juries, Australia could do very well with both constituencies.

Almost certain qualifier but there is no value in these odds. 

 Projected points: 80-100

6. Lithuania

I had Lithuania a bit higher last week. It is one of my favourite entries of the year. It is oozing quality but could be perceived as too dark for Eurovision. Lithuania has enough friends in the Semi to sail to the Final, but crazier things have happened and for that reason I leave Lithuania alone for the moment.

Projected points: 70-90

7. Malta

The roller coaster with Malta through the season continues. Going all in with the kitch/trash presentation might have been a step too further and could risk their qualifying chances because it is Malta that has traditionally suffered with the public. To qualify @1.23 feels very short and there is value in opposing it.

Projected points: 50-80

8. Armenia

The combination of its staging in a very friendly Semi and the running order, after a bunch of meh entries, is ideal to secure the qualification @2 and was around the 2.5 mark just yesterday. 

The current price is fair but I have it in my book @2.45. 

Projected points: 45-65

9.  Greece

Greece is still borderline but they have done their best to give themselves a chance. I still believe that it will need the diaspora the make the cut and still unsure if they will show up. I have a considerable position in the NQ and I might consider do some trading during the show. 

The Q is currently @ 1.36 implying that there is still a chance to miss the Final. If traders smell blood there this could become tricky. Klavdia has been strong vocally yesterday.

Projected points: 40-60

10. Serbia

Serbia loves to send entries that will always be the definition of borderline usually finishing 8th-10th. Serbia has done everything in their hand to increase their chances but they will need once again the diaspora and their friends.

Projected points: 40-60

11. Ireland

Still in the mix for qualification but this is a very bizarre entry and I fail to see who will actually pick the phone and vote for this one. The early draw does not help either. I have a small position on its Non qualification but there is no value in its current odds so I will just leave alone, unless the Irish show up on live and then lay becomes a value bet...One to watch during the show...

Projected points: 30-50

12. Latvia

Another entry that has a decent chance and is still in the mix for qualification thanks to the stunning vocals, the aerial/out of this planet staging and its authenticity. 

However, there is no value in its current price. Early draw a disadvantage as well.

Projected points: 25-45

13. Denmark

5 years, 5 Non qualifications and the streak will continue. An underwhelming national final staging that is barely changed for Eurovision and coming after France does not help at all. 

Not real value in non-qualification but could be used in combos with other NQs to boost your odds...

Projected points: 20-40

14. Czechia

And here we are! I have laid Czechia as low as 1.15 at one point and been laying throughout the last month. All metrics point to its non-qualification and after Belgium's result on Tuesday and Belgium's result with Mustii last year, we do have a pattern now with songs being snubbed by the public when the song/artist is very self-indulged making the song about them and not the other way around. 

This is my biggest position for tonight and one of the biggest positions I have ever had in a Semi Final. The NQ is still @2.38 in bet365.

Projected points: 15-35

15. Montenegro

Projected points: 15-30

16. Georgia

Projected points: 10-20

Betting Time

Semi Final 1 was a mixed bag getting 7/10 correct qualifiers and hit and missed my 2/3 bets. Norway was always a longer shot but I am gutted for Slovenia that I have read wrong. 

However there is still an open bet with Estonia to win Semi 1 @9.2 that could be enough to secure a good profit.

100 more units to spend tonight, 800 left for the Final. There are many options for tonight and I had opted for the riskier road which always offers better values.

Luxembourg to Finish in Top-3 @ 4.7 x 25 units (Exchange)

Czechia to Not Qualify @ 2.38 x 50 units (bet365)

Serbia/Armenia/Lithuania/Luxembourg Combo to Qualify @ 5.04 x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight! 

Don't forget to listen to the 12th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos where we talk about the aftermath of Semi Final 1 and share some thoughts about tonight.

You can find the episode here

Photo: Corinne Cumming

Eurovision 2025 - Semi Final 2 Power Rankings

 

Time to dive in the Semi - Final 2 Power Rankings.

This is in my opinion a much weaker line-up with many downtempo entries, especially in the first half that could kill the flow and rhythm of the show.

The second part has the big televote magnets and that could make things interesting in terms of who will follow them to the Final. 

In theory there are 13 countries fighting for the 10 tickets and only 6 of them should feel secure in my opinion. 

You can find my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1 here.

Grab your popcorn and have fun!

16. Georgia

This is the most doomed that we have had for some time in Eurovision. It goes so low under the radar that I have forgotten to write my early thoughts post about it, but I guess you get the picture.

A few points from fellow Armenians and maybe Greeks and sailing to finish last. Finishing 15th would be a shocker.

Projected points: 5-10

15. Montenegro

They have organised an excellent national final and everything went wrong from the moment the voting started back then. Nina is a great performer but this song is 20 years late in Eurovision and Montenegro will complete a full decade away from the Final. Tough but fair.

Projected points: 15-20

14. Latvia

I love Latvia's 'dare' to send an entry out of the ordinary in Eurovision but they have had at least three other entries that could have guaranteed them the qualification. 

Performing at the first part of the first half makes their mission impossible. Laying at 2.38 does have some value and if still there next week I will be tempted to top up my position.

Projected points: 15-25

13. Ireland

Odds imply that Ireland is a borderline entry and a case could be made for them qualifying. Performing at #3 with an very lightweight entry is not my definition of qualifier even in a Public vote only Semi - Final. 

There are stronger packages in the Semi - Final and someone has to be left out. If the odds drift further, over 3, I would be tempted to place a small value loss bet, but for the moment I leave that entry alone.

Projected points: 30-45

12. Greece

This might be a surprise for my fellow countrymen but from the day I first listened to 'Asteromata' I felt that this is an entry that will struggle in a televote only environment and I still feel the same way. Trying to tick boxes having in mind what we think that the Europeans might like is not the right approach and I worry that Greece will get lost performing after Austria and before Lithuania that have more quality slow tempo packages and then get completely forgotten by the time the Maltas, Israels, Finlands of this Semi perform. 

Greece NQ at 3.63 is so far my biggest position in both Semi - Finals and I do see it as a win-win situation regardless of what will Greece do in the Semi - Final.

Projected points: 35-55

11. Denmark

This choice has puzzled me a lot. Denmark has not qualified for the Final since '19 and they have a decent chance to actually make it but Denmark being Denmark is what worries me. After a relatively successful Eurovision decade in the mid 00s-mid 10s, Denmark has pushed the reset button and never recovered since then. 

The song is not bad but not great either and it will rely on other countries underperforming to grab a ticket for the Final. The definition of borderline.

Projected points: 40-55

10. Serbia

It is part of the yearly tradition for Serbia to suffer before qualifying, with most of their qualifications coming by finishing 8th-10th. However they have never finished lower than 11th in a Semi - Final.

A solid ballad that will be performing in the penultimate slot and with some good friends and diaspora in the Semi - Final should always be enough to send them in the Final.

Projected points: 45-60

9. Armenia

If there is one country that has so many friends in the same Semi - Final that is Armenia (Georgia, Greece, France, Israel) that could guarantee the necessary points for qualification. Can they get the few extra points to reach the qualifying threshold? I believe yes!

Currently trading at 2.44 to qualify there is some value there.

Projected points: 45-60

8. Luxembourg

Luxembourg is having a similar trajectory to last year. Decent entry that gets forgotten for some time and then manages to sail to the Final. The vocals might have been a concern temporarily but the staging and the USP can be enough to secure a spot for Saturday night. 

Odds wise there is no much value there. 

Projected points: 50-75

7. Czechia

I have not been the biggest fan of the Czechian entry not on a personal level but regarding its odds and potential. 

I do believe that this is a 'lazy' attempt that does have an appeal to the fans but maybe not the public. This is the ideal candidate for a shocker non-qualifier and I have the NQ at 4.60 in my book.

One to watch out...

Projected points: 45-80

6. Australia

Had Australia been in the second half, they would have a chance to crack the Top-3, but opening the Semi - Final makes their task to reach the podium very difficult. 

Sailing to the Final and maybe getting some traction for a Top-10 result.

Projected points: 60-90

5. Lithuania

Still going under the radar but Lithuania is a dark horse for a Top-10 result. The uniqueness of this entry could guarantee enough points to crack the Top-5 in the Semi - Final, currently at 2.45 in stoiximan for those residing in Greece and Cyprus.

Projected points: 70-100

4. Austria

One of the big favourites to win this year relying on its jury appeal. Televote only Semi-Final though is a different game and Austria could struggle to finish in Top-3 performing in the first half before the big televote magnets. 

Laying at 1.34 is definitely a value bet regardless of the outcome and is already in my book.

Austria is one to watch out closely.

Projected points: 80-120

3. Finland

Not much to add here. Finland might struggle in the Final when Juries take over but finishing in Top-3 in the Semi with most of the other televote magnets in Semi - Final 1 feels doable. There is no value in odds whatsoever.

Finland will need all the hype they can get by finishing high in the Semi - Final to secure an optimal running order for the Final.

Projected points: 90-120

2. Malta

Has the time come for Malta to finally get a better score with the Public than with the Juries? Probably...Opening the second half after a long list of slow-tempo entries could boost their chances and give them a fighting chance to win the Semi as well.

Projected points: 110-140

1. Israel

Last year in the same Semi, from the same spot in the running order (#14) Israel managed to win the Semi - Final a few points ahead of Netherlands. The difference to this year? Israel's win last year was paying 25-30 times your money when now is at 1.74. No value there.

This is an open Semi for the moment but I do get the impression that things will be more clear by this time next week with some of the entries being left behind.

Projected points: 125-160

Photo: Alma Bengtsson/Corinne Cumming/Sarah Louise Bennet