The time has come! The 37 participants are all known by now, the running order of the Semi-Finals is revealed plus the running order for Ukraine (#19) and UK (#26) at the Final.
The pre-parties' season is here, and we are just a few days away from the first Euro-Jury results.
This is the first post for this season that will try to shine some light to the knowns, the unknowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown knowns of the 2023 Eurovision season.
The market has a clear favourite and that is Sweden, with Loreen trying to double her wins eleven years after the first time. It is currently trading @2.12 but the price has reached 1.85 at one point. The main reason behind that favouritism is the lack of another serious contender that could be considered a threat for Sweden.
My experience and historical data suggest that Sweden will be leading the odds' board at least until after Semi-Final 1 and most probably until the Final night.
It is the one to beat and it could easily be a default winner scoring high both with Juries and Televoting.
This is its biggest advantage and the reason its price is so short. There is a bunch of countries that follow in odds and have a main feature: they are all lacking impact in one of the two constituencies, mostly with Juries.
There is Finland the second favourite @6.60 destined to win Televoting but will seriously struggle with Juries.
The same goes for Norway @18, Israel @38, Austria @55. All of them are jury poison and have a long way to go and reach the minimum 175-200 Jury points that could keep them afloat and keep them in contention after the Jury voting will be over.
There is Ukraine, currently being the third favourite @8.20, the biggest mystery of all for a second year in a row, which could go all the way if the Ukrainian diaspora and some friendly Jury votes show up again. Ukraine's televoting points will be a decisive factor and will either clear the air or will complicate things even more when the score will be revealed.
There is also a group of countries which we know that they will perform well with Juries but will struggle in Televoting.
The main contender in this category is Spain @22, currently fifth in odds, Italy @120, Switzerland @110, Netherlands @200 and, Estonia @330 follow.
All of them are Top-10 jury material, Spain could be Top-3 and one or two of the rest could also sneak in Top-4/5. Could any of them appeal in a wider public and be Top-3/5 in Televoting? If the answer is yes, then we might have a second contender.
Then there are the unknowns. Czech Republic is the biggest one. The studio version could easily be Top-4/5 in the Final and with the help of the Ukrainian supporters in both constituencies could also be a contender.
The live version though is a work in progress, and it remains to be seen how big the Ukrainian supporters' inflation will be.
France @85 and Armenia @110 could also be part of the equation. They have in theory a more balanced scoreboard than the other wanna be contenders but with a lower ceiling than Sweden.
I have already mentioned fourteen countries, and this is an average year in terms of quality.
Like every year, there will be some entries that will rise in the Final week and some that will underperform. The trend in the last few years, 2019 and on is that the market does not shift much if any at all. There is always a group of 3-4 countries that are in the Top-3/4 and barely move, apart from 2021 where after each rehearsal we had a new favourite emerging but always from the same group.
In all those years, there were very few price crashes during or after rehearsals that proved to be bubbles that in the end collapsed (France '19, Azerbaijan '19, Australia '19).
The last entry that came out of nowhere and made an impact was Cyprus '18. Add Germany '18 as well if you like.
On the other hand, there are always a few entries every year that trade in single digits and are among the contenders, but they end up lower than Top-3, call me Malta '21, Italy '22, Estonia '18, Norway '18, Sweden '18, '19, '21, '22.
It is wiser at this stage to try and find opportunities in songs that could elevate when the time comes, instead of entries that are already short in odds and vulnerable.
The other statistical trend is that Juries and Televoters tend to disagree with each other, with Portugal back in 2017 being the last winner that won both constituencies and the only winner that did it with the 50/50 voting system since 2016 that the current system is used.
There are also 3 Televoting winners that won the Contest (Israel '18, Italy '21, Ukraine '22) and 2 entries that won the contest without topping any of the two constituencies (Ukraine '16, Netherlands '19)
If we apply the 50/50 voting system in the 12 Finals that we do have data available ('09-'12, 14'-'22) there is only 1 Jury winner that won the contest without winning the Televoting as well.
And this is my main objection regarding Sweden's super-favouritism. It is the main contender, it might win, but its price is not right, especially given its recent track record with the Televoters.
Add to that the other trend regarding the type of songs that perform well and that is authenticity and vulnerability.
Loreen is a great artist and performer, however there is a complete lack of connection with the audience during the performance.
Many random viewers will recognize her and that is a plus, but many of them will also compare Tattoo with Euphoria and we all know who wins between the two.
The composition is Eurovision by numbers and subtly tries to imitate Euphoria but there is something missing there.
The Winning path for Sweden in my opinion is Juries 275-300pts - Televoting 200-225pts
It seems achievable but one hit and miss might be enough to cost them the win. Right now, Sweden could be third in Televoting just between the Nordic countries. Add to them Israel, Austria, Czech Republic and Spain and finishing 5th or 6th could be game over if they are under 300pts with the Juries.
The fair price for Sweden is 3.50-4.50.
Ukraine might have a window of opportunity for the win as well, if their Televote Score is +300pts. At double digits there might be some value there.
Spain needs a split that is similar to Sweden's: Juries 275-300pts - Televoting 200-225pts. The problem here is that with a few exceptions Spain will not receive Televoting points from Western Europe. It needs as many 12s and 10s it could get from the South and the Balkans and the random 1-3s from elsewhere.
A fair price would have been @35-40.
This is the entry that will heavily rely on Blanca Paloma's staging presence that is full of confidence and will lift the song. Spain needs a momentum.
Czech Republic has the same path with Ukraine. They need +325 Televoting pts to make it. A fair price is around 50.
I have Finland, Israel and Austria at the same level. Right now, they are somewhere between 200-300 Televoting pts and 50-125 Jury pts. It is my belief that one of them could convince the Juries that is a worthy entry and could bring their Jury score close to 200pts.
If that happens, then whoever does it, will be the grand favourite to win the Contest.
But it can only be one of this group. Euro-jury might be a huge help this year to identify a possible contender.
Under their current odds, Finland is very short. A fair price would be @25-30.
Israel has some value @38 and Austria's is just fair having a smaller jury potential.
Now focusing on the jury bait group, Italy, Netherlands and Switzerland need a superb staging that could attract the Televoters as well. But first of all, they need to secure a minimum of 250-275 Jury pts. If that happens, they have a very slight chance to become contenders.
Again, it can only be one that makes it. If I had to choose someone from this group, that would be Netherlands given their recent staging record.
France and Armenia could be the dark horses. They both have potential for a great staging that could help them have a balanced scoreboard that could push them further up. 250 Jury pts - 250 Televoting pts could theoretically be enough for them.
Things will start to shape up in the next few weeks when we will have the chance to see the songs performed live at the pre-parties and the Euro-Jury results establishing a status quo.
Until then, I will continue posting my first impressions about the remaining entries and will also post a breakdown of the advantages and disadvantages of the leading entries.
