'Stay' is a stereotypical safe Eurovision entry. Will not crash, it might qualify to the Final and be used as a filler for other entries.
Lithuania is incredibly lucky that they are in Semi-Final 2 and the chances are on their side.
It will be marginal and some of their voting allies like Latvia and Ireland that could guarantee minimum 18-20 points are on the other Semi.
They might not need them though. There are still a few friendly faces, and some 1-5 points here and there could be enough for the 50-60 points threshold.
The entry still gives me Melfest reject vibes though.
If in the Final, they will need all the help they could get to avoid Bottom-5.
It reminds me of...
15-20 entries just in the last decade
Televoting Potential: 5/10
Jury Potential: 5.5/10
Staging Potential: 6/10
Momentum: 5/10
My Opinion: 5/10
Total: 26.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% - 0.1%
Best case scenario:
19th-22nd
Worst case scenario:
Non qualification
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...
55% to qualify
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Lithuania qualifying 7th-10th and then get a first half draw, performing third and finish in Bottom-5.
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