Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Czechia

 

First Thoughts:

And we do have a second entry for the season! Aiko smashed the international votes and despite finishing 5th among the Chech audience will travel to Malmö. Aiko had more votes in total but finishing only 5th in Czechia is a bad omen for Czechia's interest and future to the Contest.

I do have a feeling that the Czechs will not be present to the Grand Final. 

There are too many things that are currently wrong and I am not sure that a vocal improvement, a revamp or a good staging could be enough to save them and send them to the Final.

'Pedestal' is trying to be an avant-garde, provocative entry without being one. The NF staging was too aggressive for the average viewer and screaming does not help either.

Israel '14 does come in mind when a bad running order and a very aggressive staging caused an unexpected  non qualification with a much superior entry.

  Czechia is traditionally struggling with the Televoting and I do expect more left-field/televote magnets that could make things more difficult for them. 

The vocal performance was far from perfect but this could improve in the following months.

The only path that could lead to a qualification is performing as late as possible in the Semi - Final, ideally in the Pimp slot but I doubt that producers and EBU will do Czechia any favors with a number of countries having a worse/bad qualifying record.

If they somehow make it to the Final, they will fight with the worse of the Big-5 entry for the last place.

It reminds me of...

 Israel '14 (NQ), Slovenia '18 (Q), Armenia '19 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier

Worst case scenario:

Last place in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-35 

Final: Js: 0-10 - TV: 0-25 - Total: 0-35

What do I see in my crystal ball?

If in first half Czechia will perform in #2 or #3 or it will be sandwiched between two favorites and will finish bottom-3 in Semi - Final. 

Czechia has done a great job lately when it comes to staging but they basically need to change the whole concept and attitude of the song to stand a chance and I am not very confident they can make it.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Czechia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: France

 

First Thoughts:

And just like that, we do have a song for Eurovision 2024, a whole six months before the Contest.

The timing is bizarre with the only possible explanation being to present it live during the Junior Eurovision Contest, but I still do not think it makes much sense in terms of creating a hype.

'Mon Amour' is a typical ballad, slightly outdated that lacks the big moment or the call for action.

Slimane is a well-known artist in the French industry and has the potential to perform live, however I am not sure this is the song that could thrive in Eurovision.

The good news for France is that 'Mon Amour' is taking advantage of the Semi - Final 100% Televoting rule that will bring many televote magnets in the Final. That means that France in theory could do well with the Jurors and crack Top-10 with them. 

The sad news is that they will struggle heavily with the televoters. Outdated ballads are not the genre that drives the viewers crazy, and France traditionally struggles to get those televote points.

France is using one again all the cliches that have not worked in their favour lately apart from 'Voila'. The title, the lyrics mentioning Paris and I am sure the staging will be something between 'Voila' and 'Evidemment'.

The videoclip tries to recreate the 'Voila' staging and Slimane feels like a male version of La Zarra. 

The impression that I get from France is that they want to do it/ win their way. They want to win with a song in French that will re-produce all the French cliches that the average European has in mind. A song that you could recognize as the French entry even if you had your TV in mute. 

Trying to create a recipe for success is not problem, the problem is that France is using the wrong ingredients year after year and 2024 will be no different.

With all that in mind France feels like a 9th-15th type of song, but because it is France, and its pre-contest numbers and hype are always inflated ending up underperforming, 12th-18th would be early estimation.

It reminds me of...

Azerbaijan '22, Spain '21, Israel '19

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 32/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

17th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Js: 75-125 - TV: 20-50 - Total: 95-175

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Mid-table result, with a chance to crack Top-10 if many televote magnets in the mix for the Final. This is where France ends up most of the times and the red flags are already there.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about France in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things ESC2024 E01

Closing the tab for Eurovision '23: The 2023 Class Report Cards - Part 1

 Time flies and we are already a couple of months before the start of the new Eurovision NF season.  The first post of the season is always the toughest for me to write because I always take some time off and never post my thoughts for the season that finished just after the Final.

To create a bridge between the season that finished and the season that starts in a few weeks, I am creating this yearly post with the Report Cards of all participants.

The factors that determine each country's grade are the result, staging, potential and Jury/Televoting appeal.

I will start my classification going from the last entry in the ranking all the way up to the winner.

Feel free to comment and share your thoughts.

37. San Marino - E

Result: F

Staging: C-

Potential: F

Jury/Televoting appeal: E

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 16th - 0 pts

Voted: 0/19

San Marino ended exactly where most of the people had them. 0 points might feel a bit harsh, but it is difficult to get any when you are the 12th-14th option of the televoters.

The staging was not that bad but was not enough to secure any points. They were heading for a car crash from day 1.

Teacher's Comments: 

The '23 result is the norm for San Marino and last year was the back to reality moment for them.

The Semi-Final Televoting only score is ideal for a country like San Marino to shine. Croatia showed the way last year and if they keep Una Voce per San Marino format and opt for a Serhat/Achille Lauro type of artist, qualification should be within reach.

36. Romania - F

Result: F

Staging: F

Potential: F

Jury/Televoting appeal: F

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 15th - 0 pts

Voted: 0/19

If you are trying your best to do everything wrong, Romania '23 should be your mentor! A NF that did not make any sense, an entry with no appeal, staged with so many red flags that failed spectacularly to get a single point in a Semi - Final with 3-4 that have a decent Romania diaspora. That says it all and creates more questions regarding what has actually happened in the NF.

Teacher's Comments: 

TVR faces financial troubles and Eurovision is not a priority anymore and that is ok. However, Moldova next door with similar or inferior budget keeps producing entries that perform well.

There should be some kind of reform in the NF process for sure going back to the pre-2017 recipe. An internal selection with a popular and beloved artist could also work for them ensuring that they will have at least diaspora's support.

35. Malta - D

Result: F

Staging: C

Potential: C

Jury/Televoting appeal: E

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 15th - 3 pts

Voted: 2/18

Malta missing the Final was not a surprise, but finishing penultimate with just three points it was. Performing at the #2 death slot might be the culprit. Malta was considered a borderline non qualifier that could do just enough to get through.

Televoters had a different opinion, and the cheesy staging felt a bit cringy in the end. Had they somehow been in the Final, they would have secured the Jury points needed to avoid at least the last place.

Teacher's Comments: 

The country that suffers most with Televoting is Malta and that means trouble. They need to do a U-turn, ditch the Melodifestivalen rejects and opt for something more authentic. An internal selection could be a clever idea as well. 

34. Azerbaijan - D

Result: F

Staging: B+

Potential: C+

Jury/Televoting appeal: D

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 14th - 4pts

Voted: 3/18

No surprises here regarding the result. Azerbaijan is the main reason that the voting format changed in the Semi - Finals and there is a chance that they would have gotten away with it again if the Jurors were still voting in '23.

They did their best to improve their chances and the staging was good, but the problem was always the song that had minimum impact on televoters.

Teacher's Comments: 

Bumpy road ahead for Azerbaijan that is always relying on internal selection and a Swedish production team for its entry.

The time has come for a NF that will be more in line with people's taste and will be more representative of the country's music culture.

33. Denmark - D

Result: F

Staging: C+

Potential: C+

Jury/Televoting appeal: E

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 14th - 6 pts

Voted: 1/19

Denmark was a coin toss to qualify just a day before the Semi - Final and then suddenly the market decided that this one would the one to be left out with most people having it 11th in their list. 

Another proof that apart from a clever staging and an ok-ish song, you need an artist that can actually sing.

Having a few million Tik-Tok followers in South Korea did not help either (0 ROTW points) ...

Teacher's Comments: 

Denmark has one of the best produced NFs in the last decade and is such a shame that the level of the entries is so low. A change of pace and direction is needed with something bolder and more diverse in terms of music genres.

Finland and Norway should be used as blueprints.

32. Netherlands - C-

Result: F

Staging: D

Potential: B

Jury/Televoting appeal: C

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 13th - 7 pts

Voted: 5/18

Netherlands was the other coin toss entry that went from 50/50 to a certain non-qualifier the day before the Semi - Final.

The good news for the punters was that its NQ odds were paying handsomely till the end of the show mostly because of its running order performing at #14.

The entry had lots of drama since the pre-parties' season, and it was inevitable to leave the criticism behind when it mattered. There were a few changes that improved the staging and the vocal abilities of the performers but were not enough to save them.

Teacher's Comments: 

Netherlands' qualifying streak is over but is not the end of the world for them. It has happened in the past and they were able to come back and win the contest. 

Avrotros will not have a problem to find a suitable candidate that will guarantee the return to the Final. A NF would not be a clever idea for Netherlands.

31. Ireland - D

Result: D

Staging: D

Potential: E

Jury/Televoting appeal: D

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 12th - 10 pts

Voted: 5/18

The first entry that has outperformed and finished higher that it was expected. If we rely on the ranking 12th is very respectable, however receiving just ten points implies that the bar was low.

There is nothing better that Ireland could have done to elevate its entry to qualifying level. That should have happened in their NF night when there was a better option on the table, and they passed it.

Teacher's Comments: 

Ireland needs to change everything regarding their selection process. NF being part of a famous late show, with non-existent staging and a national Jury that is trying to sabotage its entry is not the way to move forward.

30. Greece - E

Result: E

Staging: F

Potential: C

Jury/Televoting appeal: D

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 13th - 14 pts

Voted: 2/19

The most impressive Greek car-crash ever, deservedly the worst Greek result in Eurovision ever. I was quite optimistic about this expecting the many Greek allies and friends to lift it and secure enough points to make it to the Final. 

This has been by far the most amateurish Eurovision staging that we have seen for a very long time and Victor's vocal abilities were very limited. He could be the argument for those asking for an increase at the minimum age limit for the participants. 

On the other Greece's and Romania's results this year is a good sign that allies, friends, and diaspora still need a reason to support you and you cannot get away with it if you send a mediocre song.

Teacher's Comments: 

I hope that ERT learned their lesson from last year and will opt for a different format this year. The easy route would be to go back to the 00's recipe, a bop entry with ethnic elements and get back the diaspora and stereotypical televoting points or continue with the '19-'22 recipe that guarantees some jury points. If they could combine the two recipes that would be better. 

29. Georgia - C-

Result: D

Staging: B-

Potential: D

Jury/Televoting appeal: C-

Improvement from last year? Yes

Rank: 12th - 33 pts

Voted: 10/19

The shocking NQ of the year. The only country that was inside market's Top-10 and failed to qualify. To be fair there was a big movement in the market the last two days and the 5.50 to not qualify fell all the way to the 2.50-2.75. This was my first bet in any Semi -Final for this year and I was really happy to get the value that came with the 5.50.

Georgia's main and only problem was that they forgot to send an actual song this year. The whole 3 minutes is a display of Iru's vocal abilities which had no impact on a Semi - Final where jurors do not vote.

Apart from Armenia and Greece that traditionally support Georgia it got a few 1-3 points here and there being a double score and eight points away of the qualification margin.

Teacher's Comments: 

Georgia has not been in a Final since 2016 and the pressure is on. No doubt that they have a tradition sending alternative entries that are interesting, however they fail to grab audience's attention and are too left field for the jurors to like. 

It still puzzles me why they are not using their junior Eurovision approach here as well.

28. Latvia - B-

Result: D

Staging: B

Potential: B

Jury/Televoting appeal: C

Improvement from last year? Yes

Rank: 11th - 34 pts

Voted: 11/18

There is only one country in the '23 lineup that has the right to say that they were unlucky and that is Latvia. They were in the wrong place in the wrong time. If Croatia was in SF-2 or any of Estonia/Lithuania performed in SF-1, they would have been in the Final. The same would have happened if they had performed in the second half of the Semi - Final.

They were only three points behind Serbia and any of the above circumstances would have sent them in the Final where the jurors could have lifted this entry maybe to a near Top-10 result.

Teacher's Comments: 

There was nothing else that they could have done to save themselves. They did have the handicap of being a jury-based entry and they paid the price for it. It was an improvement compared to their last 4-5 entries though.

27. Iceland - C

Result: C

Staging: D

Potential: D

Jury/Televoting appeal: C

Improvement from last year? No

Rank: 11th - 44 pts

Voted: 12/19

Iceland did break their ceiling by finishing 11th when most of the predictions had them in bottom-3. They took advantage of Denmark's and Greece's no shows and secured 44 points that were good enough for the 11th place. They were voted by 12 countries however, with the exception of Albania that was voted by 14 countries, all the other Top-10 entries were voted by 17+ countries each.

Teacher's Comments: 

Dilja' is a talented performer that brought energy to the stage but the choreo was non-existent. It is a shame because Iceland made the same mistake back in 2017. I am not sure though that the staging is responsible for their non-qualification.

And that concludes Part 1 of the Report Cards for Class '23. What is very apparent by looking at the results is that the new format makes the Semi - Finals more predictable and less competitive. 

There were 8 entries that got 0-14 points, 2 entries with 33-34 points and just one entry with 40+ points but 30 points away from the qualification threshold.

Traditionally every Semi - Final had at least an entry that was saved by Juries and another entry that was saved by the televoters, sometimes more than one. That condition was giving more exciting results with at least 12 countries competing for the qualification.

Let's hope that '24 will have more countries adapted in the new reality and send more televoting - based entries to make things more interesting both for the viewers and the market as well.

I will be posting Part 2 next week, having a look at the bottom half of the finalist. Stay tuned!

The Swedish Way

 

Another Eurovision season is coming to its climax tonight.

For a second year in a row, we do have a heavy favourite to win and that is of course Loreen representing Sweden. 

They are both heading for some record breaks, Loreen becoming just the second artist with 2 wins and Sweden catching Ireland in the first place of total wins with 7.

Last year there was much speculation regarding if Ukraine would find the points to secure the win. 2023 is different and the reason why is the Swedish Way (I need to register that for a Trademark😂).

What is the Swedish Way? Since 2009 that we do have data available for the Split Results between Televote and Juries, we have had 9 Winners that won the Televote, 2 Winners that did not win neither the Televote nor the Juries (Ukraine '16 - Netherlands '19) and just 1 Winner that did not win the Televote but won the Juries. 

You guessed right! It was Sweden back in 2015 that won the Juries but finished 3rd in Televote behind Italy and Russia. There is a big chance we will have the same split tonight that could be more than enough for Sweden to secure the win. 

Sweden is the powerhouse with Juries, and this is its big weapon. Securing a score near the 300 points threshold will put the competition at sleep before everything starts. 

Sweden in the last few years had a systemic struggle getting the Televote points that it needed to contend for a win. It has not received more than 200 points since Mans' win in 2015 and that could be the only reason for concern for Loreen.

However, the metrics suggest that Sweden could easily reach the 250 points mark which could be more than enough even in the case that Sweden finishes third or fourth with the Public Vote. 

So, is there a way for Sweden to lose this one? In theory the minimum points that Sweden needs are 275 Jury points and 225 Televote points. In that case, it is game on.

And who could be the contenders? Odds suggest it is Finland which is destined to win the Televote. The problem is that Finland will marginally finish in Top-10 with Juries (I have 100-120 J points in my projection) so that means that they will need to achieve the second biggest Public Vote score ever! Russia '16 comes to mind when they won Televote with 361 points and finished 3rd failing to score more than 130 Jury points. 

I do have a feeling that Finland could finish lower than 2nd all the way to 4th. 

The entry that could have an actual chance is Israel. Performing in 2nd half, while Sweden, Spain, Finland and Italy are all packed in the 1st half gives an advantage with the other contenders (Norway, Ukraine) performing earlier. 

Unicorn could have a similar score to Fuego back in 2018. I do have it 4th in Juries and minimum 3rd with the Public Vote. I do have it down to marginally win the Televote boosted by the optimal running order. 

If they reach the 225 Jury points and Sweden underperforms with the Televote then there is a chance for a thriller.

And finally, we have Spain. Destined to finish Top-2 with Juries and a big mystery when it comes to Televote. If Paloma gets a similar score to France '21 near the 250 mark then it could pressure Sweden as well.

Here is my projection for the whole line up 

1. Sweden

Not my cup of tea but deserves the win, being the less vulnerable of all entries in an average quality year. The running order suggests that the producers tried everything to make it more exciting with 5th x 2 times being the best place #9 has achieved since 2013. 

Tipping Sweden to win at 1.53 obviously is not part of my betting philosophy. I have it red on the Winner's market, however I have taken covers with Combo and Forecast bets predicting a Swedish victory. 

Will be tempted to buy some when the first Jury results are in and Sweden might not be leading the board for a few countries. 

My favourite combo of all is Sweden 1st and Israel 2nd at 10.00 

Sweden-Israel Top-2 in any order at 6.00 great value as well

Sweden 1st - Israel 2nd - Finland 3rd at 12.00 is decent as well.

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 545-590 (Tv: 270-290 - Juries: 275-300)

2. Israel 

The biggest winner of the running order and metrics. Israel is a Top-4 lock and 95% Top-3, however I moved it to runner-up for a good reason. 

There has not been a year since 2013 (most probably earlier as well but have not checked the results) that a Top-2 entry has not been in the 2nd half. 

It would be absurd to have Sweden, Finland, and Spain all finishing in Top-3 and then Israel, Norway, Ukraine even Armenia to just finish in Top-10.

Israel is my biggest position in Winner's market waiting for the miracle to happen currently at 65.

Winning the Tele Vote at 50 is another market I am involved in plus the combos I have mentioned above with Sweden.

I have big volume bets in Top-3/4/5 since rehearsals started and this is my make it or break it country for the year. Israel finishing Top-3 will give a nice profit regardless of what happens elsewhere.

In fact, I find it difficult to understand why someone would choose Sweden to win at 1.54 instead of Israel Top-5 in 1.75.

Tv: 1st - Juries: 4th - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 495-520 (Tv: 275-295 - Juries: 210-225)

3. Spain

Spain's mystery around its Televote appeal is the main reason I find it difficult to rate Spain higher. This is the entry that could get some traction during the show but performing just before Sweden will create more problems than gains.

Spain to finish in Top-5 at 3.50 is a value bet.

Sweden - Spain Top-2 combo regardless of position at 12.00 is also in my book.

For those betting in Greece, stoiximan offers my Tricast 1st Sweden - 2nd Israel - 3rd Spain at 200...

Tv: 6th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points: 400-450 (Tv: 150-180 - Juries: 250-270)

4. Finland

The Televote winner favourite that will struggle big time with Juries. If he reaches the 175 points thresholds with them, he has a chance. 

The problem is that never before a left field entry finished that high. It is more likely for Finland to get 70 Jury points than 150...

I do have some combos with Finland being Top-3 as a cover and would be will willing to invest some money for the win, only in the case of them being near the thresholds mentioned above.

Tv: 2nd- Juries: 11th- Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 370-410 (Tv: 270-290 - Juries: 100-120)

5. Norway

I am troubled with this one. Running order, quality and metrics suggest a Top-5 finish, the same with my projection as well. 

My main problem is that I struggle to see 3 Nordic countries being Top-5, especially when Estonia and Lithuania are also in the Final. 

All these countries get their high scores from the same pond and will be impossible for all of them to score equally high in non-allies' territories. Their votes somehow will split. 

There is no great value in Norway's Top-5 but it is acceptable as cover in certain combos.

Tv: 4th- Juries: 7th- Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 350-395 (Tv: 200-225 - Juries: 150-170)

6. Italy

Marco is back to improve his 7th place back in 2013 and he is en route to do it. If Top-3 with Juries as projected could have hopes for a Top-5 finish. If not, a secured Top-10 spot. 

Italy has become a powerhouse and even when going in fumes is still able to deliver.

Top Big Five at 2.86 is an option if you think that Spain will flop.

Tv: 10th- Juries: 3rd- Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 325-365 (Tv: 95-115 - Juries: 230-250)

7. France

All the countries that I have mentioned so far have the potential to do better in some scenarios. With France we have the opposite. 7th is the best-case scenario for them and should be incredibly happy with it. 

Another hit and miss from France and the overreactions to the French songs have become part of the rehearsals' routine. 

It can easily pull a Mercy '18 and finish 15th and that will not surprise anyone. 

The only value bet here is the Top-10 lay circa 1.50.

Tv: 8th- Juries: 5th- Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 280-320 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 180-200)

8.  Armenia

It remains to be seen if Armenia's running order in Semi - Final has impacted their chances for a Top-10 result. I reckon that Armenia was Top-3 and probably won the Semi - Final from #2 and that by itself will be impressive. 

It is a secured Top-10 entry that has some chances for a Top-5 result, but the running order again does not help. 

For those willing to risk Top-5 is at 7.60 in betfair.

Tv: 9th- Juries: 6th- Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 260-300 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 180-200)

9. Ukraine

When people talk about the favourites this year, somehow Ukraine is always there but no one really talks about it. We do know the reasons and it is safe to assume that Ukraine could land anywhere from 100 to 500 points, and no one will say anything. I decided it to be somewhere in the middle just to keep my options open.

Not tipping anything here but if you see Ukraine getting more 125 Jury votes, consider it a lock Top-5.

Tv: 5th- Juries: 14th- Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 255-305 (Tv: 180-210 - Juries: 75-95)

10. Czechia

There are 5 entries that could get the 10th spot, but I have decided to go with the one that has improved throughout the season. Running order is not great but the staging and some mid-table scores with both constituencies could be enough for them to make it.

Top-10 at 2.76 has a risk but is one of the best outsider odds.

 Top-15 at 1.53 as well is great value!

Tv: 11th- Juries: 13th- Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 170-210 (Tv: 90-110 - Juries: 80-100)

11. Austria

This will be marginal as I mentioned before so 2.80 for Top-10 is a value. My problem is that Austria is opening the Final and the last Top-10 result was back in 2016. Not touching this one.

Tv: 13th- Juries: 12th- Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 165-205 (Tv: 75-95 - Juries: 90-110)

12. Belgium

Being sandwiched between Australia and Armenia is not the best place to be if you want to have Top-10 hopes. 

The one with the shortest price at 2.40 from the 5. 

No bet for me.

Tv: 14th- Juries: 10th- Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 165-205 (Tv: 65-85 - Juries: 100-120)

13.  Croatia

Copy-paste any of the above texts. Pick the one that you like from these 5 and place a Top-10 bet on it. This one has the best running order of all though performing #25 but Juries will be harsh on them.

Tv: 7th- Juries: 21st- Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 130-150 - Juries: 30-50)

14.  Switzerland

Switzerland will be for the Juries what Croatia is for the Televote. The problem is the running order at #3. The good news is that #3 in 9 producers' Contests has achieved two 9th places and three 11th. 

Top-10 at 5.80 is the definition of a value bet and I will tip it for tonight.

Tv: 20th- Juries: 8th- Total: 14th

Estimated Points: 155-190 (Tv: 25-40 - Juries: 130-150)

15. Estonia

Top-15 at 3.00 is an option but everything is very marginal from this point on. Every country could literally land anywhere.

Tv: 21st- Juries: 9th- Total: 15th

Estimated Points: 135-170 (Tv: 25-40 - Juries: 110-130)

16. Slovenia

It does have potential for a stronger finish but is sandwiched between other strong Televote entries and might be forgotten.

Tv: 12th- Juries: 19th- Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 130-170 (Tv: 80-100 - Juries: 50-70)

17. Australia

If finished that low, Australia could potentially be the weaker Semi - Final winner that we have ever had.

Tv: 18th- Juries: 15th- Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 110-150 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 70-90)

18. Lithuania

Tv: 15th- Juries: 18th- Total: 18th

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 50-70 - Juries: 50-70)

19. Serbia

Tv: 19th- Juries: 20th- Total: 19th

Estimated Points: 75-115 (Tv: 35-55 - Juries: 40-60)

20. Portugal

Juries need to come to the rescue for this one. In conversation for the last place but I do find the odds very short and funny enough #2 might be the worst place to be in the Final line-up but has not produced a single last place in 9 Contests!

Tv: 24th- Juries: 16th- Total: 20th

Estimated Points: 80-110 (Tv: 20-30- Juries: 60-80)

21. Cyprus

Finishing last at 120 in betfair and 67 in bet365 makes Cyprus' last place the ideal fun bet while watching the show.

Tv: 22nd- Juries: 17th- Total: 21st

Estimated Points: 70-105 (Tv: 20-35- Juries: 50-70)

22. Moldova

Tv: 16th- Juries: 25th- Total: 22nd

Estimated Points: 60-95 (Tv: 50-70- Juries: 10-25)

23. Poland

Tv: 17th- Juries: 26th- Total: 23rd

Estimated Points: 55-85 (Tv: 45-65- Juries: 10-20)

24. Albania

Tv: 23rd- Juries: 22nd- Total: 24th

Estimated Points: 45-80 (Tv: 20-35- Juries: 25-45)

25. Germany

Finishing last at 10.50 in betfair is of course a nice fun bet to add to your collection though the competition will be tough this year...

Tv: 25th- Juries: 23rd- Total: 25th

Estimated Points: 30-60 (Tv: 10-20- Juries: 20-40)

26. United Kingdom

Disclaimer: The Jury points projected are not for the vocal capabilities of Mae but more because of the secured 12 points from Ukraine and some other delegations that were happy with the Contest organisation.

The PImp Slot has in fact produced a last place in the last 9 contest and it was the other British Isle, Ireland, so 4.80 to finish last is not a bad call if someone rellies on the running order to bet.

Tv: 26th- Juries: 24th- Total: 26th

Estimated Points: 25-55 (Tv: 10-20- Juries: 15-35)

And that concludes my ranking projections and thoughts about the bets tonight.

Now it is time for some betting tips!

I do have the 800 units that were available for the Final plus the settled bet for Netherlands from Semi - Final 1 for 85.6 units so my Total for the Final is 885.6 units.

Israel's Top-3 for SF-1 is still open and most probably won. Moldova was a long chance and a fun bet.

Greece was disappointing but I knew where I was getting. Armenia's Win is still a possibility that could bring back a profit.

I have had 19/20 correct Qualification calls with Greece being the only one missing out, by the 11th in my projection Estonia. So I was that close to get a perfect 20/20 that I could brag about for the next 20 years.😂

 

I have decided this year to place fewer bets and this is what I will try to do this year as well. 

Final

Israel to Finish in Top-3 @ 3.15 (betfair exchange) x 600 units

Sweden to Win and Israel come Second @ 10.00 (betfair sportsbook) x 100 units

Israel to Win @ 60 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Switzerland to Finish Top-10 @ 5.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Spain to Finish Top-5 @ 3.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

and now the fun bets

Cyprus to Finish last @ 130 (betfair exchange) x 15.6 units

Israel to Win the Tele Vote @ 29 (betfair exchange) x 20 units

Available Units: 0

Open Bets: 885.6 Units

Settled Bets: 0 units

Good luck with all your bets tonight! I will post some thoughts for the Contest and my betting strategy for this year by the end of this.

You can also find my updated betting book here.

May (not Muller) the best one win!

Diamond in the rough

 

What a way to start the season! 10/10 correct calls for the qualifiers, the first time that the market had predicted all of them as well so I can still brag, but most of the tipsters had the same score so congrats to all of us!

Regarding my tips, Netherlands returned most part of my capital and waiting for the Semi - Final results after the Final to see if Israel was Top-3 to get a 100% profit.

If I read the metrics correct, Israel should be there.

Time to move on and focus on tonight's Semi - Final 2. This is going to be a little bit trickier than Tuesday. My estimation is that we have 8 countries that are 100% safe, and they are sailing to the Final:

Austria, Australia, Cyprus, Armenia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Poland, Belgium.

There are 3 entries that have no chance making it:

San Marino, Romania, Iceland

And that means that we have 5 countries fighting for the 2 remaining spots:

Georgia, Estonia, Greece, Denmark, Albania. 

So the two main talking points are:

 1. Top-3 where I do believe we have 3 entries that stand out and remains to be seen who wins the Semi - Final. I am talking about the 3As: Austria, Armenia, Australia. 

Austria is the favorite but lost some of its momentum just when rehearsals started. It was matched as low as 1.60, drifted all the way to 4.90 and is now at 2.24. Australia saw its odds shorten when the first pictures were published and is currently trading at 4.70 and Armenia is the third one that stood out of the crowd now at 7.2. 

2. Who are the 2 nations that will get the two remaining tickets for the Final?

Let's get started! Just a reminder that you can find my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings for SF2 here. I am always commenting the songs in their running order.

Denmark

This is the first one from the group of 5 that is gradually missing ground and can be considered a non-qualifier. Denmark has one of the most clever stagings of the year but the running order and the suspicious vocal abilities of Reiley, even in a Televote only Semi - Final, are enough to leave this one out. It was trading almost odds on, now Q is at 2.50 - NQ 1.50.

Non qualification is a very safe option for someone that does not like to take many risks when betting.

Place: 13th 

Estimated Points: 35-45

Armenia

If you follow my blog and read my posts regularly, you must be tired already reading my praises for Armenia. The staging has not let me down and the added dance routine in the end of the track that was kept secret until yesterday do elevate the studio version. Brunette's vocals are stunning, and we might have a dark horse in the making. 

The one to break the Death Slot #2 curse and become the first entry since SF2 back in 2016 that has qualified from there (Poland) and just the third one in 20 attempts (Armenia did it again in 2015).

I do think that Armenia is a secured Top-10 for the Final and if drawn in second half could potentially crack Top-5 as well. Could score well with Juries and Armenia can take advantage of its diaspora and the poor representation of Eastern Europe in the Final. 

Coming back to the Semi - Final, Armenia's Top-3 now trading at 2.14 is a fantastic opportunity and for those that oppose Austria for the win, Armenia pays 6.80. Both bets are in my book for the SF.

Stoiximan offers the following Top-2 pairs in SF: Armenia/Australia at 10 and Armenia/Austria 5.50. Both have value and in my personal book.

Place: 1st

Estimated Points: 150-170

Romania

Few things to add here. A weird entry that stands no chance. If you think that Romanian diaspora could do a miracle and send this one to the Final, the currents odds is 21! 

Place: 14th

Estimated Points: 25-35

Estonia

My biggest downgrade since the national finals season. If in Final, Estonia could potentially have been a Top-10 with Juries. However, there is a possibility that it will not make it there. The market in the last few hours seems to favor its qualifying chances and currently trades at 1.65 but I suspect that this is an overreaction to yesterday night's audience poll (people voting their preferred entries when leaving the stadium in Liverpool) where Estonia ranked 6th but do not forget that for the SF1 Malta was 5th and NQed the same with Ireland that ranked 6th.

In every Semi - Final since the 50/50 voting system was introduced, there is one entry that is saved by the Juries that otherwise would miss the Final. Estonia is my choice to not qualify for that reason and also because of its poor running order with just 8/19 qualifications. 

It will be marginal, but I do call Estonia a non-qualifier.

I will not tip Estonia to not qualify at 2.50 as I find better values elsewhere, but I do have it in my personal book.

Place: 11th

Estimated Points: 45-55

Belgium

Belgium is the Cinderella story of the year. An entry that was third-fourth favorite in the national final, won, and then it was considered a certain non-qualifier but currently it has climbed all the way up to secure qualification and be Top-5 in the Semi - Final. 

The first up-tempo entry that potentially is the real opener of the Semi - Final. Remember Israel 2015...

For those betting in Greece (stoiximan) Belgium to Finish Top-5 in SF at 2.50 is a value bet. 

 Place: 4th

Estimated Points: 120-140

Cyprus

A hit and miss for Cyprus with an extremely basic staging that could have aimed higher if produced differently.

Qualification is not an issue here, could still crack Top-5 but I think that Belgium will steal some of its momentum. 

Place: 7th

Estimated Points: 70-80

Iceland 

A poor attempt from Iceland this year. Will get a few points from Denmark, just enough to avoid last place. No value in non-qualification odds unless you are willing to bet a few Ks.

Place: 15th

Estimated Points: 15-25

Greece

Here we are! Greece is the hot topic of the night! Will it make it? Is it doomed? The qualifying odds have gone from 1.50 last week, all the way up to 3+. The 30 second video segment has scared people off and yes Victor is not vocally great, and the staging is a mess but...

Having seen the whole performance I state that the whole 3 minutes look way better and there are some factors to keep in mind before choosing a side on a bet.

-If the 100% Televoting rule is applied for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022), Greece has the best qualifying record with 13/14 qualifications (missed out 2016 and 2018 would have been a qualification).

- Greece could not have asked for a better Semi - Final in terms of friends with Cyprus, Armenia, Georgia, Denmark (Victor is half Dane), Albania and having a huge diaspora that could also give some points from the rest of the world televote. The maximum threshold to secure a place in the Final is 60 and Greece starts with minimum 25-35 points in the bag.

- Victor is a 16-year-old boy that is living his dream. He might be overselling this one, but teens and mothers could relate. The struggle as well could be perceived as authentic and give some extra points.

- This is the first time ever Greece is offered in such high odds in a Semi - Final and that means value. 

Greece qualifying at 2.92 (current price in Betfair) is a bet I am happy to take even if I lose it because it is a good call long term. I do consider it the best value bet in a SF of the last 5-6 years. It is a low-risk high reward bet, and the fair price would be 1.80-1.90. This will be my main tip for tonight.

Again, for the Greek followers, stoiximan offers a H2H against Denmark at 2.70 that could be a safe option as well in case Greece does not make it but finish higher than Denmark.

There is also a combo bet with the above H2h against Denmark and Poland to Finish Top-5 in SF at 6.60! I have them already in my book.

Place: 9th

Estimated Points: 55-65

Poland

The guilty pleasure entry of the year sailing to the Final and being a candidate for a Top-5 finish in Semi -Final when just a month ago it was odds on to qualify. 

If Polish diaspora shows up, spoiler alert: it will, Poland could aim for that Top-5. It is also pleasant enough to be accepted by the international audience as well.

Stoiximan offers the Top-5 in SF at 2.40 which is fair.

Place: 6th

Estimated Points: 80-90

Slovenia

The most suitable candidate to break the current Top-3 (3.05 in betfair) but somehow lacked something yesterday. This is a great show song and Slovenia is heading back to the Final after a while. It is a secured Top-5 and could only aim for higher.

Place: 5th

Estimated Points: 100-120

Georgia

The second most fragile entry after Denmark from the group of 5. Georgia has a decent staging and a great performer but there is a tiny problem...They have forgotten to send an actual song to the Contest. There is no cohesion, no meaning at all. It is just a vocal exercise for Iru. The market is noticing that and qualifying odds from 1.10 are now trading at 1.35-1.40. 

There is still value there for the non-qualification but most of it is now lost. You can still triple your money though. 

Place: 12th

Estimated Points: 45-55

San Marino

Getting ready for another last place after a while. No value in any bet.

Place: 16th

Estimated Points: 5-15

Austria

The big favorite that leaves people with mixed emotions. Some love it others hate it. It failed to recreate the video clip vibes and tried too hard to be taken seriously watering down the fun factor. They took the opposite way of Finland, but I am not convinced that this will translate in great result. 

I had them out of my Top-10 for the Final and nothing has changed since. Was tempted to lay its Top-3 odds for the SF currently at 1.41.

Place: 3rd

Estimated Points: 130-150

Albania

The one that has improved the most during rehearsals. Currently at 2.10 to qualify. This is a possibility and I do have it on my qualifiers list, but I am hesitating to tip it for various reasons. The most important one is that Albania is missing all its allies apart from Greece and has minimum secured points.

Even in the past when allies have been present, Albania would finish 9th-12th most of the times so it is always a borderline and hence I find no value in these odds.

Place: 10th

Estimated Points: 50-60

Lithuania

A safe qualifier that is also helped from the great running order. It could be a secure Top-15 in the Final with the Lithuanian diaspora and the Juries adding some extra help.

Place: 8th

Estimated Points: 70-80

Australia

And finally, Australia! Regardless of whether you like the song or not, you will agree that the staging will be spectacular with some retro-futuristic elements that will remain in history! The Pimp Slot in the producers' running order era (2013-2022) has produced 8/18 Top-3 results, which is now safe to assume that have become 9/19 with Finland performing there on Tuesday. It has also produced 2 wins ('13 Romania, '18 Cyprus).

It is safe to assume that Australia is a Top-3 and I would not rule out a win based on the running order either. 

Place: 2nd

Estimated Points: 140-160

I have given multiple options for all types of bets but these are the ones that made it to my final selection

Greece to Qualify @2.92 (Betfair) x 75 units

Armenia to Win the Semi - Final @ 6.80 (Betfair) x 25 units

Available Units: 0

Open Bets: 100 Units

Settled Bets: 0 units

I have decided to take more risks in this Semi - Final because I do believe in them, and my book already looks healthy enough. You can also find the updated version of my book here

Good luck with your bets tonight! I will try to post something tomorrow about the running order in the Final as well and some thoughts about the contenders.

The clash of the Nordics

 

The big day is finally here! And if you take the odds seriously before the shows start, then tonight we will watch the Winner of this year.

I reckon that it is still early to speculate about the Winner, but Sweden has shown strength since early March with Finland closing the gap in the last few weeks and momentarily threatening Sweden's status quo last week before drifting again.

Just a reminder that the Semi - Finals are 100% Televoting with the Juries waiting the Grand Final to show their hands.

This is the reason you see Finland leading the odds for the Semi - Final tonight. Finland currently is @1.45 and Sweden @3.60 followed by the third Nordic country of the Semi - Final, Norway @44.

Tonight, we will see the smallest line-up in a Semi - Final since the second Semi - Final back in 2014. The fact that we have just Televoting makes the things less complicated as well, with just 11 countries fighting for the 10 golden tickets, and 4 have only mathematical chances to make it.

Not much has changed since late April when I have posted my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings. Last year I got 9/10 predictions right and that will be the minimum I am aiming for this Semi - Final as well.

Norway

A great start for the Semi - Final. Qualifying never was an issue, the running order might affect its ranking though. Had it been in second half, the Top-3 would look secure, now 4th-5th looks the most probable scenario.

For those who have faith in Norway Top-3 in SF is @2.50-2.80.

Place: 5th 

Estimated Points: 105-125

Malta

Malta feels like being a notch higher than the rest of the hopeless non-qualifying group. If you want to join Malta's party at the Final, you can do that by tripling your money. 

I have gone the other way based on the death slot that has only produced 2/18 qualifications and Malta's poor record with Televoters. One of the weakest combinations of a country' record and running order. 

There is a beautiful bet though in stoiximan for those betting from Greece and Cyprus for Malta to win the Group that consists of Latvia, Malta, Azerbaijan and Ireland @3.30. I have it on my personal book already. The same with a H2h against Ireland @1.55.

Place: 12th

Estimated Points: 30-40

Serbia

I was troubled with this one when I first watched it yesterday, but I do think it has enough to qualify, especially in the first 2,5 minutes. I would not recommend a bet though because I do find its odds very short but not short enough to place a lay bet.

Serbia has a good recent record and some guaranteed points from friends and diaspora that will provide a safety net.

Place: 8th

Estimated Points: 50-60

Latvia

One of the most introvert entries of the year that will struggle a lot because of the lack of Juries. Will get some small points here and there but not enough to crack Top-10.

If you believe in Latvia's lullaby you will make 4.5 times your money, but I prefer to be a realist. 

Place: 13th

Estimated Points: 25-35

Portugal

The other question mark of the SF that has made just enough to secure its qualifying status. It feels a bit underwhelming, but the vocals are stunning. I do find its odds noticeably short though. I have it 9th but it is the most vulnerable to non-qualification.

Place: 9th

Estimated Points: 45-55

Ireland

I do not know if an illegal substance is in high circulation in Ireland right now, but this is the only explanation why the Irish odds to win the Contest has shortened yesterday from 1000 to 120!!!

Especially when we are talking about the most 'suitable' candidate to finish last in the SF.

Place: 15th

Estimated Points: 10-20

Croatia

This one is custom made for a Televoting Semi - Final and failing is not an option. Qualifying over 1.55 is fair and might be the most decent Q odds at the moment. 

If you find it repulsive and atrocious and you wish it will not qualify, you can bet on that @2.50.

Place: 7th

Estimated Points: 60-70

Switzerland

SJB has done enough with the staging to create a concept that is memorable enough for the viewer. Remo has improved since the first rehearsal and Switzerland one way or the other will be in the Final where the Jury cavalry will come to the rescue.

I do find its odds very short though to place a bet on it.

Place: 10th

Estimated Points: 45-55

Israel

The one to watch out. Very dynamic in a great slot as well, this is a dark horse in the making. Not a fun of the dance routine in the end but it does have enough for the audience and the Juries in the Final to vote for it.

I do have it on my book as a SF Winner @70, SF Top-3 which will be one of my tips for tonight and also on the Top-4/5, Winner markets in the Final. You have been warned.

SF Top-3 is currently @2.40 and is a great value on a Televoting SF where the running order plays an important fact and the other strong candidate, Norway opens the Semi- Final.

Place: 3rd

Estimated Points: 120-140

Moldova

I find Moldova difficult to decipher going against the current here. I do have it as a qualifier and in the middle of the table as well, but I do have a gut feeling that this one will not perform great with the audience. Laying @1.12 was my first bet for the season. 

The main argument is that is sandwiched between Israel and Sweden, is repetitive and not exactly politically correct with Pasha Parfeni doing capoeira moves on a little man! This will be my fan bet for the Semi - Final.

If I go with the current, this is sailing to the Final.

Place: 6th

Estimated Points: 75-85

Sweden

Ladies and gentlemen behold of the queen! Loreen means business and the staging is impressive. Unlike most of the betting community, I found the staging more suitable now than in Melodifestivalen. 

Tattoo is the one to beat and remains to be seen if this year is a one-horse race. I still have my doubts and find the current odds of the overall win super-short. I do find though tonight's odds to win the Semi - Final @3.60 the only Swedish odds for the year with some value. I have a placed a small bet on this one but still have it red for the Final.

Place: 2nd

Estimated Points: 150-170

Azerbaijan

This looks better than before, but this might mean that instead of last it will finish penultimate. It needed the Juries to stand a chance but hey Azerbaijan is the main reason we have no Juries in the Semi - Finals so this is karma, not for the artists but the country.

Place: 14th

Estimated Points: 20-30

Czechia

Czechia has done the full circle during the NF season and now is back on business. Not sure if this one should be considered an X-factor getting the support from Ukrainian diaspora and be a de-facto Ukrainian entry 2.0 but they have toned down the political aspect of the song and kept the women empowerment parts.

They have one the best staging this year and I do consider it a secure Top-10 come Saturday. 

Top-3 in the SF is currently @3-3.20 and is a fair price. 

For my Greek fellows again, there is a great H2h in stoiximan vs Norway @4.00. This is the best value bet of the whole Semi - Final in my opinion. 

 There is also a Top-5 in SF bet for Czechia @1.90. I do consider this one a steal😉

Place: 4th

Estimated Points: 110-130

Netherlands

The drama of the pre-parties season continues. Netherlands has lots of negativity surrounding the performance and I thought that the artists could use that anger to create an intimate and sentimental performance that would shut all the criticism and secure the qualification.

From what I have seen yesterday this is not the case and Netherlands deserves to be left out. Vocally they have improved but staging feels like a high school prom movie in a bad way. Can they do what I have mentioned in the above paragraph tonight? If yes, they might go through.

The market was 50/50 until last night when the majority preferred to show their trust in Switzerland, Portugal and Serbia.

Netherlands  Non Qualification @1.91 will be the third and last tip for today's Semi - Final.

Finland

The big favorite tonight. Too aggressive to be a contender? The one to bring the house down tonight for sure. Remains to be seen how the Juries will take it.

No value in any of the bets for today or Saturday though.

Place: 1st

Estimated Points: 170-190

And now the most important part of this post! The betting Tips

My book is available here. I will be using 100 units for my Semi - Final bets and 800 units + any settled bets units from the Semi - Finals for the Final. 

The problem that has raised the last few days is which tips to give when I have readers from different countries and different companies. I will go with the majority that uses Betfair/Smarkets and the British betting companies, but for those that have available any of the H2h bets that I have mentioned, they do have equal if not best value and should bet accordingly.

So here we go

Israel SF Top-3 @ 2.46 (Betfair) x 50 units

Netherlands Not to Qualify @ 1.91 (Bet365 -2.14 in Betfair) x 40 units

Moldova Not to Qualify @ 8.00 (Bet365 - 8.50 in Betfair) x 10 units

Available Units: 0

Open Bets: 100 Units

Settled Bets: 0 units

Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be tweeting tonight and mention anything interesting betting wise if there is something worthy to mention.

Image: Vesa Marttinen/YLE

Everything you need to know about Semi - Final 2, and you were afraid to ask

Yesterday we had a look at the numbers of Semi - Final 1 and now the time has come to take a closer look at Semi - Final 2 also known as 'Probably the worst Semi-Final of the last decade'.

Things are more fluid because of that average - low quality level and minor details could make the difference for the desired qualification ticket for the Final.

Image: Chloe Hashemi/EBU

The stats are focused on historical data of Semi - Final Televoting for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022) and of the Running order under the producers' era (2013-2022).

Fasten your seatbelt (no pun intended) and enjoy!

1. Denmark

Qualifying Record: 8/13 ('08-'22) - 3/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 9.8 ('13-'22)

Wins: 2 

Top-3 Results: 4 (2-1-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 16th-1st-11th-7th-13th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.4

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

A few words about the play: The difference in Denmark's performance with the Televoters before and after the win in 2013 is impressive.

Lately struggling to make it to the Final. It is borderline this year as well.

The latest results in #1 suggest a qualification.

2. Armenia

Qualifying Record: 8/12 ('08-'22) - 5/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.4 ('08-'22) - 8 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 7th-14th-15th-x-3rd

Running Order Record: 2/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 13.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: Armenia is getting ready to re-write the Semi - Finals' running order history by becoming the first entry since 2016 and Poland to qualify from that slot. 

The other qualification that comes from slot #2 is also Armenia's so they know the drill.

First Top-3 for #2 as well? I say yes.

3. Romania

Qualifying Record: 10/13 ('08-'22) - 5/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 6.3 ('08-'22) - 6.9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 4 (1-1-2)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 3rd-13th-14th-12th-5th

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.9

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

A few words about the play: Romania has changed their approach to the Contest back in 2018 and the results do not justify their choice.

Last year they did change direction and got a safe qualification, but this will not be the case this year. Could diaspora carry them to the Final alone performing in #3? 

If they do that, this will be a Top-3 shocker qualifier in the history of Semi-Finals.

4. Estonia

Qualifying Record: 8/14 ('08-'22) - /59 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 9('08-'22) - 8.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 6th-3rd-3rd-12th-7th

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.9

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)

A few words about the play: The producers this year have a similar tactic for both Semi - Finals placing in #4 a Jury oriented entry that is meant to suffer in a 100% Televoting Semi - Final. 

Estonia has a decent qualifying record, but this might not be enough to secure a place in the Final. 

5. Belgium

Qualifying Record: 6/13 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 8.9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 4 (1-0-3)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 3rd-16th-15th-11th-10th

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-1-3)

A few words about the play: #5 is the first strong slot for televoting friendly entries with 2 wins and 6 podium results in the producers' era. 

Belgium has changed direction this year after 5 years of Jury oriented entries. This is the reason that Belgium was given this slot making it the unofficial opener of this Semi - Final.

The paradox is that the last five non qualifications out of the six in total since 2013 have happened in the last 5 Semi - Finals, currently the longest standing non qualification streak...

6. Cyprus

Qualifying Record: 9/13 ('08-'22) - 7/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 9.5 ('08-'22) - 7.5 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 1(1-0-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 5th-1st-10th-7th-9th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (2-1-0)

A few words about the play: Cyprus is currently holding the second-best qualifying streak with 7 in a row.

Not expecting it to suffer in an average slot, but Top-3 might be far-fetched.

7. Iceland

Qualifying Record: 10/14 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.2 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)

Wins: 2

Top-3 Results: 4 (2-1-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 14th-19th-1st-2nd-10th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

A few words about the play: Few things to add here as Iceland is hopeless and the running order does not make any difference.

8. Greece

Qualifying Record: 13/14 ('08-'22) - 8/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 6.1 ('08-'22) - 9.1 ('13-'22)

Wins: 2

Top-3 Results: 4 (2-2-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 9th-10th-9th-7th-8th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.5

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

A few words about the play: Greece is no longer a Eurovision powerhouse, but it still holds the best qualifying record with Televoters since 2008, missing out only in 2016.

The running order is aligned with Greece's current form. Greece is a borderline qualifier, and it has enough allies and friends to clinch a spot in the Final.

9. Poland

Qualifying Record: 8/12 ('08-'22) - 7/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.8 ('08-'22) - 6.5 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 6th-10th-8th-13th-4th

Running Order Record: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 6.3

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-3-1)

A few words about the play: Poland has the 3rd best ranking average in producers' era ('13-'22) after Sweden and Norway. 

What's more impressive is that during that span the best result they have achieved is just a 3rd place ('14). 

The second-best slot to have after the Pimp Slot.

10. Slovenia

Qualifying Record: 5/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 12.4 ('08-'22) - 12.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 16th-9th-5th-14th-17th

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

A few words about the play: The combination of the running order and Slovenia's record is the third weakest of all 31 entries; however, Slovenia should be sailing to the Final.

What might be affected is Slovenia's chances to win the Semi - Final, something that has not happened so far from #10.

11. Georgia

Qualifying Record: 4/13 ('08-'22) - 1/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.2 ('08-'22) - 13 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 13th-17th-13th-14th-17th

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: The second weakest combination of a country's and running order's record. If the recent form trend continues, Georgia should finish 13th. 

The running order and the absence of a powerful entry is what makes me think that Georgia is a borderline qualifier and would not be surprised if they fail to qualify.

If Albania makes the cut, Georgia and not Greece will be the one to be left out.

12. San Marino

Qualifying Record: 3/12 ('08-'22) - 2/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 12.8 ('08-'22) - 11.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0

Recent Form ('17-'22): 17th-16th-4th-10th-12th

Running Order Record: 13/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.7

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (1-3-0)

A few words about the play: Nothing to add about San Marino. The last of the three entries without a Top-3 result so far, having a 4th place back in 2019. 

13. Austria

Qualifying Record: 4/10 ('08-'22) - 3/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10.6 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 14th-5th-18th-15th-11th

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (2-0-0)

A few words about the play: The big favourite of the Semi - Final in a slot that has produced two wins but no other podium result suggesting that if Austria does not win the Semi - Final, it might land outside the Top-3.

I do lean on the second outcome because Austria does have a poor qualification record and a minimal help from neighbours and friends.

14. Albania

Qualifying Record: 7/14 ('08-'22) - 3/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 9.9 ('08-'22) - 11.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 12th-11th-9th-11th-9th

Running Order Record: 13/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6 

Running Order Wins: 3

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-0-1) 

A few words about the play: Albania has an ideal running order, but I do suspect that the producers used the slot as a filler between Austria and Australia that comes after two songs.

Albania has just three qualifications in producers' era, and they all come with sweat and tears 8th and 9th (x2). Add to that the lack of its most important allies and Albania has to work very hard to find the points needed to make it.

15. Lithuania

Qualifying Record: 10/14 ('08-'22) - 7/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 7.6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 15th-9th-8th-3rd-5th

Running Order Record: 12/18 / Second Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.1 / Second Last: 6.7

Running Order Wins: 3 / Second Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-1-0) / Second Last: 3 (2-0-1)

A few words about the play: Lithuania in my opinion is the country that had the best possible draw to maximise its qualifying potential and become a certain qualifier somewhere in the middle of the table.

Diaspora will always be there to help as well. 

16. Australia

Qualifying Record: 4/6 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-2-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 15th-7th-2nd-16th-8th

Running Order Record: 11/17 / Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.9 / Last: 4.9

Running Order Wins: 0 / Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (0-2-1) / Last: 8 (2-2-4)

A few words about the play: Australia's record and the Pimp Slot guarantee that a Top-3 result is the bare minimum. It is very possible as well to have the first win coming from #16.

The combination #16 and Pimp Slot has only occurred four times in the 18 Semi - Finals since 2013 and it has a second, a third and a fourth place! It is time for the win as well.

And this concludes the articles about the Semi - Finals. The fun just starts and will try to post some numbers and stats about the Final as well somewhere between the Semi - Finals' posts and of course do not miss the posts with my predictions and betting tips.