Everything you need to know about Semi - Final 1, and you were afraid to ask

 

The latest edition of 'Everything you need to know about the Semi Finals, and you were afraid to ask' is here to give you some insight about the numbers and stats regarding the participants.

This post can be used as a reference guide for the participants of Semi - Final 1.

Image: Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU

The stats are focused on historical data of Semi - Final Televoting for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022) and of the Running order under the producers' era (2013-2022).

This is going to be a long post so prepare your coffee/tea/drink and enjoy

1. Norway

Qualifying Record: 11/13 ('08-'22) - 8/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 6.6 ('08-'22) - 6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 2 ('09, '19)

Top-3 Results: 3 (2-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 8th-3rd-1st-8th-4th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.4

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

A few words about the play: Norway is one of the Eurovision power houses. Most of the Televoting qualifications (7) were achieved with a Top-5 result. 

They currently hold the second-best qualifying record for the Double Semi - Finals era. Have not failed to qualify in their last 5 attempts.

Opening the Semi-Final could potentially cost a Top-3 finish for Norway but should be near there. There has not been a winner or runner-up yet performing in the opening slot in producers' era...

2. Malta

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 11.6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 18th-18th-10th-2nd-16th

Running Order Record: 2/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 13.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: Malta is the country that has elevated the Jury saves to a state of art. Now that the juries are missing, they need to dig deep to save themselves, especially after performing in slot #2.

The last qualifier from slot #2 remains Poland back in Semi - Final 2 in 2016...

3. Serbia

Qualifying Record: 10/12 ('08-'22) - 6/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.6 ('08-'22) - 8.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 11th-8th-7th-9th-1st

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.9

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

A few words about the play: Serbia performing a second year in a row in slot #3. Last year they won the Semi - Final (tie with Sweden). Can they do the same?

Probably not. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier that usually makes it to the Final. 

4/6 qualifications have happened in the last 7 Semi-Finals which is good news. Producers' have slightly changed their approach altering strong with not so strong entries to balance things a bit.

4. Latvia

Qualifying Record: 3/14 ('08-'22) - 1/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 13.9 ('08-'22) - 13.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 17th-15th-16th-16th-15th

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.9

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)

A few words about the play: The country that has struggled the most from the ones participating this year. Avoiding the last place would be their best result in the last 7 years!

The problem is that their entry is jury-based, and the running order does not help either.

5. Portugal

Qualifying Record: 7/11 ('08-'22) - 4/6 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 7.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 1st-x-12th-5th-6th

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-1-3)

A few words about the play: #5 is the first strong slot for televoting friendly entries with 2 wins and 6 podium results in the producers' era. 

Portugal has a decent record and the combination of the two could secure the qualification.

The paradox is that the last five non qualifications out of the six in total since 2013 have happened in the last 5 Semi - Finals, currently the longest standing non qualification streak...

6. Ireland

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 3/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.4 ('08-'22) - 11.9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0 

Recent Form ('17-'22): 12th-6th-17th-15th-11th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (2-1-0)

A few words about the play: Not much to say here. Ireland has been struggling a lot in the last two decades. It's one of the three countries that have not had a Top-3 result with the Televoters in the Double Semi - Finals era and the one with the worst best result of all 31 participants. 

Has finished 6th three times and that is it.

The running order per se has a decent record but like #5, it is used lately as a filler. Had not been Ukraine last year performing in #6 to break the NQ streak, it would be similar to #5, with 4 non qualifications in the last 5 Semi - Finals.

7. Croatia

Qualifying Record: 5/12 ('08-'22) - 4/ 7('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 10.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0

Recent Form ('17-'22): 5th-17th-12th-9th-12th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

A few words about the play: The other country in the Semi - Final after Ireland with no Top-3 result in Televoting since '08. 

The nature of the song and the running order suggest that Croatia will make it this year. Most of the qualifications in this slot have happened with a Top-5 result. Not suggesting that Croatia will have one, but the slot will help increase the qualifying chances a bit.

Even though #7 has no win so far, it has a better ranking average than slots #5 and #6 that have 2 wins each.

8. Switzerland

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.1 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 10th-15th-3rd-3rd-16th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.5

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

A few words about the play: Switzerland was able to turn the ship around since 2019. The problem is that apart from 2019, all the other entries were relying on the Juries for a good result and the trend continues this year.

Switzerland might struggle being sandwiched between the chaos of Croatia and the Israeli Unicorn. This is the reason I currently have Switzerland as a borderline qualifier.

Apart from Iceland's second place in 2021 from that slot, all other qualifications finished 6th-10th. Something to keep in mind. 

9. Israel

Qualifying Record: 7/12 ('08-'22) - 4/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10 ('08-'22) - 9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 4th-4th-x-5th-13th

Running Order Record: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 6.3

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-3-1)

A few words about the play: Israel got a similar treatment to Norway, being the first up tempo entry of the half that it was drawn. 

What if I told you that Israel's only Top-3 result since '08 is not Netta in 2018 (4th) but 'Golden Boy' back in 2015?

Israel is the only Eurovision Winner that finished outside Top-3 with a constituency in a Semi - Final.

Slot #9 has the best qualifying record and ranking average, but you need to remember that most of these times was used as the pimp slot of the first half. 

10. Moldova

Qualifying Record: 8/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.6 ('08-'22) - 8.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 3 (0-3-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 2nd-2nd-13th-4th-2nd

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

A few words about the play: Moldova has a very impressive recent record with the Televoters, having finished 2nd three times in the last five years! 

This is a good omen for Pasha unlike the performing slot which is among the worse of the second half and in total. If the current streak of a NQ followed by a Q continues, Moldova should make it.

If there were thoughts about Moldova making it to the Top-3, the running order hints that this will not be an easy task.

11. Sweden

Qualifying Record: 10/12 ('08-'22) - 7/7 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 5 ('08-'22) - 4.4 ('13-'22)

Wins: 4

Top-3 Results: 5 (4-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 4th-6th-6th-10th-1st

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: An obvious attempt from the producers to balance the running order giving some room for Sweden to breathe between Israel and Finland. 

The country with the most Semi - Final wins (4) since '08 and we are talking about Televoting only. Two of them have brought the trophy back home. 'Tattoo' is currently the second favourite in the Semi - Final and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Sweden needs to finish 4th or higher to become the best performance from slot #11. No win, no Top-3 and interestingly no last place either has come from here so far.

12. Azerbaijan

Qualifying Record: 9/13 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.2 ('08-'22) - 9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 8th-12th-5th-6t-18th

Running Order Record: 13/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.7

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (1-3-0)

A few words about the play: The sim cards era is now far away from Azerbaijan and EBU has ditched the latest Azeri hobby of doing shenanigans with the Juries as well. 

Azerbaijan was the first and probably the last country for some time that qualified to the Final getting 0 Televoting points and of course finishing last with Televoters last year.

Azerbaijan is struggling with Televoting since 2013 and they need to pull a miracle to make it this year, especially coming after Sweden.

The slot is ideal for a televote driven entry that unfortunately Azerbaijan is not.

13. Czechia

Qualifying Record: 4/9 ('08-'22) - 4/7 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.6 ('08-'22) - 9.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 18th-2nd-6th-17th-3rd

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (2-0-0)

A few words about the play: It is truly amazing what Czechia does with its entries. They are either jury-driven or televote-driven but never balanced. My guess is that we have another Televote-driven entry that will sail to the Final. 

Most of the qualifications from #13 finished 4th-6th and this is where Czechia will land as well.

14. Netherlands

Qualifying Record: 6/13 ('08-'22) - 6/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10.6 ('08-'22) - 7.5 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 9th-12th-2nd-x-7th

Running Order Record: 13/18 / Second Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6 / Second Last: 6.7

Running Order Wins: 3 / Second Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-0-1) / Second Last: 3 (2-0-1)

A few words about the play: Netherlands is currently a borderline entry in terms of its qualification. In every Semi - Final since 2014 there was an entry that was saved by the Juries and the bell is ringing either for Switzerland or Netherlands. 

The good thing for Netherlands is the penultimate slot that has a 16/18 qualifications record. Many of these qualifications were ranked 6th-10th and that is also good news meaning that they got the boost they needed to qualify. 

Despite the underwhelming rehearsals, I still believe that Netherlands has a chance based on statistical facts.

15. Finland

Qualifying Record: 9/14 ('08-'22) - 7/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 9.2 ('08-'22) - 9.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 10th-7th-17th-1st-6th

Running Order Record: 12/18 /  Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.1 / Last: 4.9

Running Order Wins: 3 / Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-1-0) / Last: 8 (2-2-4)

A few words about the play: Finland is aiming for its second Semi - Final Televoting win in the last 3 years. There is some heavy competition in the Semi - Final and remains to be seen if they can get their momentum going in the Final as well.

Finland could not have asked for a better draw with Pimp Slot securing a podium finish in half of the qualifications and an impressive 14/18 Top-5 results!

Tomorrow I will be posting Semi - Final 2 and you can also the Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1 here and for Semi - Final 2 here plus some general statistics about all 31 participants and the running order here.