Odds wise, there is a possibility to have just a Top-10 entry from this Semi to the Final and that sums it up.
Even to that poor field however there are some clear favourites to proceed and a few entries that do not stand a chance.
Before starting the rankings, a reminder that you can find the post for Semi - Final 1 here and the post for the winning paths of the odds' leaders here. You can also click on each country's name for the first thoughts.
1. Armenia
What I think it will happen: Still flying under the radar, missing all pre-parties, and having just a few bits of information about the presentation. I am not sold in Austria, and I do think that Armenia has more staging potential. The early draw is a disadvantage as well, but I do think that Armenia is a locked Top-3 in Semi- Final and could bring a similar result to Russia '15, Australia '16, Belgium '17.
If I had to choose a country out of the current Top-5 that could end up there in the Final, Armenia is my pick easily.
To win Semi @13 and be Top-3 in the Semi @ 1.81 both have some value, especially the second one compared to Austria's odds for the win.
Disclaimer: I do have Armenia already in my book in both markets, plus Winner/Top-4/Top-5/Top-10 in the Final
I would be shocked if: Does not finish in Top-3
2. Australia
What I think it will happen: Having the Pimp slot and an entry that could set the stage on fire. It is the typical Semi - Final 2 pimp slot entry that does finish in Top-3 and then used as an opener for the Final.
Australia does not have a great Televoting appeal in the Contest but has managed to win a Semi - Final twice ('16, '19) and finished second last year, based on its jury appeal though.
I struggle to find a way that 'Promise' finishes lower than Top-4. Another one that goes under the radar and let's not forget that Australia does have some jury appeal that could become handy in the Final.
I would be shocked if: Australia finishes 5th or worse.
3. Cyprus
What I think it will happen: Cyprus is expected to sail through to the Final and it has enough allies in the Semi - Final to do it being part of the Top-3. The entry that starts with a secured threshold of 35-40 points and could get many more. Not sure about its fate in the Final but this Semi is a different beast.
I would be shocked if: Cyprus is not in Top-6.
4. Slovenia
What I think it will happen: Another certain qualifier that depending on the circumstances could land anywhere between 2nd and 6th. Joker Out will also have the chance to win the crowd and secure their spot in the Final.
Semi Final Top-3 @ 3.20 has value.
I would be shocked if: Slovenia does not qualify.
5. Austria
What I think it will happen: The favourite to win the Semi - Final and I have it 5th? Well...I do like the song in general but there are many red flags there to back it at such a short price, currently @ 1.63.
I am aware that there are no Juries in the Semi - Final but I do struggle to find a decent staging or choreography for this one and not sure how many viewers will relate to or understand the message of the song.
I think that WTHIE will be the biggest victim of the video-clip effect for 2023 and will under-achieve spectacularly.
I was keeping an open mind for this one with the Eurojury results coming in in case I missed something but if the jurors are not impressed by its video-clip which is its selling point then they are heading for a car crash.
Top-10 in the Final is not secured in my opinion.
I would be shocked if: Austria wins the Semi - Final.
6. Lithuania
What I think it will happen: I might have underestimated Lithuania at the beginning of the season. 'Stay' is cheesy and generic but there is some kind of serenity that the song brings, the running order and some friends will be enough to secure a place in the Final and there they will meet more friends and diaspora...
A fun bet for the Top-3 in Semi - Final @ 5 and for the Semi - Final Win @ 100 is acceptable.
I would be shocked if: Lithuania fails to qualify.
7. Belgium
What I think it will happen: Another grower during the national finals' season. Belgium is not my cup of tea, and I was harsh when I shared my first thoughts but even back then I have mentioned that the qualification is not out of question.
Three months after and Belgium is heading to the Final and if you consider Eurojury as a reliable metric, Belgium could be an outsider for the Top-15.
I would be shocked if: Belgium wins the Semi - Final or finishes in Bottom-3.
8. Poland
What I think it will happen: The Top-7 has secured a spot in the Final and Poland is the first entry on my list that could end up the other way around.
Blanka is the guilty pleasure of this year, and it has the Polish diaspora behind it. This will be the key for its success. We need to see the staging to have a better idea, but Poland and Televoting diaspora is the perfect mix.
I would be shocked if: Poland finishes in Top-3.
9. Greece
What I think it will happen: Greece is the fourth entry after Cyprus, Poland and Lithuania that has a head start because of their allies and diaspora. Quality wise is the weakest Greek entry for a while but could still make it to the Final. Failing to qualify would not be a surprise.
I would be shocked if: Greece is placed in Top-5.
10. Georgia
What I think it will happen: Georgia is in trouble and the main reason is the absence of an actual song or its strange structure. It is made to highlight Iru's vocal abilities but there is nothing more than that.
An epic staging could hide some of its weaknesses but if they fail to create one, Georgia will continue the long streak of non-qualifications.
Lay has the best value of all non-qualification odds in both Semis for 2023.
I would be shocked if: Georgia is near Top-5.
11. Estonia
What I think it will happen: Estonia's qualification will be a coin toss. Personally, I am leaning on the non-qualification side purely because, in every Semi - Final since 2014, there is at least one entry that is saved by Juries and Estonia is the one that fits that criterion.
Without Juries might be the easy target and despite its quality it might fail to qualify. It will be easier in the Final if it gets there having the Jury boost.
I would be shocked if: Estonia finishes in Bottom-3.
12. Denmark
What I think it will happen: The last country in my list with a chance to qualify but the odds against them. The early slot and Denmark's bad record with similar vanilla songs in recent history suggest that qualifying might be out of reach. They will fight with Greece and Georgia for the last qualifying spot.
Lay @1.78 has value.
I would be shocked if: Denmark finishes higher than 9th.
13. Iceland
What I think it will happen: A generic repetitive song that lacks, at least in national final, any form of choreography that could help it and lift its status.
'Power' ironically is not powerful enough to find an audience that could vote massively for it and send it to the Final.
I would be shocked if: Iceland qualifies finsihing higher than 10th.
14. Albania
What I think it will happen: Albania is missing most of its allies and 'Duje' is not the type of entry that will force the Televoters to pick up the phone. Maybe it is time for Albania to try a different recipe.
I would be shocked if: Albania qualifies.
15. Romania
What I think it will happen: Could Romania do it again and qualify solely getting points from its diaspora? The answer is no.
Anything better than Bottom-3 will be tremendous success.
I would be shocked if: Romania qualifies.
16. San Marino
What I think it will happen: If there was a bet for last place in Semi - Finals, San Marino would have been money in the bank.
I would be shocked if: San Marino will not finish last.
And this is a wrap. I have 7 certain qualifiers: Armenia, Australia, Cyprus, Slovenia, Austria, Lithuania, and Belgium.
Poland, Greece, Georgia, Estonia, and Denmark will battle for the remaining 3 positions.
Of course, rehearsals are on the way and many things could change but I highly doubt that there could be another country to join the battle and make it to the Final.
I will also post my book for the season in the next couple of days which I will be updating until the end of the Grand Final.
For the following week, the plan is to post some stats for the Semi - Finals and then of course the coverage of the rehearsals and the jury shows here and in twitter.
Stay tunned...
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