Let's talk about bets baby...
And now the time that most of you were waiting for. The betting/tipping side of my blog.
I have already posted my thoughts about what went right and wrong last year here.
This season I have tried a different approach regarding my personal book. The main different is that I have placed a small number of bets so far and have decided to place the vast majority of my bets after I have a picture from rehearsals and the shows.
The good news is that I will be able to watch the rehearsals and the jury shows so I will have a better picture of how the things shape up.
The other diversification for the year is the short price of Sweden in the winning market that I find repulsive to place a bet on.
Sweden is the grand favourite and the most probable winner by far, but my betting philosophy does not allow me to place a bet on them on such a short price. For that reason, the volume of my bets on the Winner market is much lower than in the past, mostly on countries that could perform well with Juries, and they offer a chance for a profitable trade, or countries that could have some potential with their staging and for the moment are long shots because of the unknown factor.
The positive aspect of my strategy is that I will not carry all the way to the Final a heavy weight of bets which potentially will be lost or have no value.
Every year I try to reduce the amount of the bets that I am tipping, most of the times with no luck, but this is the year that I will keep my promise and will keep things tight.
The Book
I will not change the format that I have used last year which helped a bit.
The Book will consist of 1000 units, 100 for each Semi - Final and 800 for the Final. The units from the settled bets from Semi - Final 1 can be used in Semi - Final 2 or the Final, the ones from Semi - Final 2 for the Final.
I will try not to spend more than the 100 already allocated for Semi - Final 2 and use the settled ones from SF1 straight to the Final unless there is a terrific opportunity.
The Book will be updated every time there is a new tip and I will be tweeting about it as well. Every bet will be followed either by a link with the thinking behind its selection or by a short analysis.
Last year there has been a debate whether I should be using the exchange's odds or the bookies' odds. The readers of my blog come from various parts of Europe and around the world so it would not be fair to use only the one or the other and it is also impossible for me to calculate my winnings or loses this way.
I personally use both entities and tip bets that are available in both entities most of the times. I will be always using the odds that are available at the time I post my tips to settle this one. I know it is not fair for someone who does not have the exchange option on their country, but betting is always about finding the best value.
Semi - Final 1
Israel SF Top-3 @ 2.46 (Betfair) x 50 units
Netherlands Not to Qualify @ 1.91 (Bet365 -2.14 in Betfair) x 40 units
Moldova Not to Qualify @ 8.00 (Bet365 - 8.50 in Betfair) x 10 units
Units Invested: 100
Returned Units: 208.6 units
Semi - Final 2
Greece to Qualify @2.92 (Betfair) x 75 units
Armenia to Win the Semi - Final @ 6.80 (Betfair) x 25 units
Units Invested:100
Returned Units: 0
Final
Israel to Finish in Top-3 @ 3.15 (betfair exchange) x 600 units
Sweden to Win and Israel come Second @ 10.00 (betfair sportsbook) x 100 units
Israel to Win @ 60 (betfair exchange) x 50 units
Switzerland to Finish Top-10 @ 5.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units
Spain to Finish Top-5 @ 3.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units
and now the fun bets
Cyprus to Finish last @ 130 (betfair exchange) x 15.6 units
Israel to Win the Tele Vote @ 29 (betfair exchange) x 20 units
Invested Units: 885.6 Units
Returned Units: 1890 Units
Semi - Finals Total Investment: 200 Units
Semi - Finals Total Returns: 208.6 Units,
ROI: +4.03%
Final Total Investment: 885.6 Units
Final Total Returns: 1890 Units
ROI: +113.4%
Eurovision 2023 Total Investment: 1085.6 Units
Eurovision 2023 Total Returns: 2098.6 Units
ROI: +93.3%
Semi - Finals Tips: 2/5, 40%
Final Tips: 1/7, 14.3%
Eurovision 2023 Total Tips: 3/12, 25%
Nice approach Ioannis keeping light betting book at the start of the rehearsals. It is also something that I am always trying to remind myself and always failing. Usually I am getting carried over by the "opportunity" of a good odd value but it is not rare that either you have to revert that exposure during the rehearsals (with some cost) or you have to face the irony of a drifting odd you have already backed as an opportunity. Of course there are some cases where the odd backed is shortening but most of the times the opportunity is still there during the first rehearsals. I also I like the they way you split the units between semis and final. My experience from recent years have shown that final can be a bit more predictable and profitable than semis. Looking forward to your insights.
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