Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Netherlands

 

First Thoughts:

All things come to an end! Netherlands' amazing qualification streak since 2016 is in danger this year.

'Burning Daylight' is the most suitable candidate to lose the qualification because of the rule change.

It is an atmospheric ballad that depends a lot on the chemistry between Mia and Dion to create some vibes and force people to vote for it.

Many people compare it to Calm After the Storm, but this is wishful thinking I believe.

My take is that Netherlands would have struggled even with 50/50 voting system. 

As you have already imagined, I currently have Netherlands in the non-qualifying list finishing 11th or 12th.

Producers seem to have used them as a filler between Czechia and Finland and that is not a good omen.

It reminds me of...

Estonia '17, Netherlands '15

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 34/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

16th-22nd in Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

35%-40% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I believe that Netherlands will not qualify, and it will not even be borderline. Currently there is value in their non qualifying odds.