Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Netherlands

 

C'est La Vie - Claude

Netherlands is back! And is aiming for the top!

After last year's drama, AVROTROS opted to go back to the recipe that has brought them the win back in '19 and a 2nd place in '14. 

Claude is a charismatic performer, I dare to say the most charismatic of the '25 class and will bring on stage his personal story sending a message of hope and faith.

'C'est La Vie' is a very smart entry, aiming to keep it simple but impactful. They have solved the French language barrier by using simple wording that is understood even by the non-French speakers, something that France did as well with Voila'. 

The aim of the entry is to tick the correct Jury boxes and get a solid start finishing Top-2/3 with them and then try to get some momentum going with the Public vote.

I do believe that the Jury part is a lock for them, hence my enthusiasm and support in Winner's market and I do feel confident that the song will click with the viewers as well.

Netherlands is what I consider a 'low-maintenance' contender, that does not need to win or landslide any of the two constituencies but just needs to be Top-2/4 with them to be in the game till the very end. 

This is the main reason that I do have Netherlands in my Tier 1 entries. I could see them score 250-275 points with the Juries and a slightly smaller score with the Public vote, something like 200-225. 

My data suggest that the entries which get points from the vast majority of countries in the Jury vote, and Netherlands does fit that description, also get voted in Public vote and this is the recipe for a great result. 

Switzerland and France last year finished 5th and 4th in Public vote, scoring 220-221 points but both were voted by all countries in the Televote! 

For all these reasons, I do consider Netherlands a secure Top-4 entry that has the potential to surprise us and win the Contest.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing in Top-2 in the Jury vote near the 300 points threshold and in Top-5 with the Public vote and reach the magic 500 points number that could land them the victory.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 12.5%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Top-6

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

F: J: 225-300 - PV: 150-225 - Tot: 425 - 525

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Netherlands a contender or a Public vote flop?

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Netherlands

 

First Thoughts:

'Europapa' has been one of the most anticipated entries of the year and the result has not disappointed Netherlands' fans.

Currently is the fifth favorite in Winner's market, however the first reaction has not been that positive, drifting all the way to 200+ a few hours after its release. 

The number of streams convinced the market that we might have something here.

'Europapa' delivers exactly what we were expecting from Joost Klein as an artist. It should not be considered a joke entry, with a political pro-Europe message and a personal love letter to his late father. The 90's techno nostalgia bonds very well with the last 30 seconds of the piano that lands the viewers back on earth.

We are in for a great show and this is a given. Netherlands is heading for a Top-10 result that has not had since its win back in '19 but I am very skeptical about its contender status.

The main reason that Netherlands' odds have shortened is the number of streams that is impressive but I do suspect that it comes from a very specific region (Benelux with a bit of Germany, Austria and the Baltic). Not sure that this one will perform very well in Eastern and Southern Europe and this is a problem since its win path demands 325+  Televote points.

The other concern is the Jury appeal. I am not sure that the jurors will get behind this one and award its artistic merit or the hit potential. Even though it is not a joke entry, many might consider it one and that is a deal breaker.

For the reasons mentioned above I do think that Netherlands should have enough to finish 8th-10th but would not be surprised to see it finishing mid-table 12th-15th.

Top-5 feels like its ceiling if everything goes its way.

It reminds me of...

Moldova '22 (Q), Finland '23 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 39/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

.2%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

Final: Js: 25-125 - TV: 75-175 - Total: 100-300

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing 11th like they did back in '16 and '17. They do have a very difficult task to stage this one in the best possible way to maximize the televote points without compromising any Jury points.

I am still dubious of its pan-European appeal.

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Netherlands

 

First Thoughts:

All things come to an end! Netherlands' amazing qualification streak since 2016 is in danger this year.

'Burning Daylight' is the most suitable candidate to lose the qualification because of the rule change.

It is an atmospheric ballad that depends a lot on the chemistry between Mia and Dion to create some vibes and force people to vote for it.

Many people compare it to Calm After the Storm, but this is wishful thinking I believe.

My take is that Netherlands would have struggled even with 50/50 voting system. 

As you have already imagined, I currently have Netherlands in the non-qualifying list finishing 11th or 12th.

Producers seem to have used them as a filler between Czechia and Finland and that is not a good omen.

It reminds me of...

Estonia '17, Netherlands '15

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 34/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

16th-22nd in Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

35%-40% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I believe that Netherlands will not qualify, and it will not even be borderline. Currently there is value in their non qualifying odds.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 8. Netherlands...has depth!

 

Qualifying Record: 7/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 4 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 5 Q