Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Luxembourg

 

First Thoughts:

This is the first time I am writing a review about Luxembourg and I am so excited about their return in the Contest.

They have organized a great national final in terms of production which was not bad for a first attempt.

Tali won with 'Fighter' and she will be fighting for a spot in the Grand Final after thirty one years.

EBU and producers played their part giving Luxembourg the pimp slot in the Semi - Final to boost its chances.

When I first heard the song was not exactly impressed but I did find it competitive enough to qualify and get a decent amount of points to finish somewhere in the middle.

After hearing the revamp Ι am not so sure about that any more. In theory Luxembourg is a certain qualifier, but I do find its current odds very short and would be tempted to bet against them if Portugal and Australia up their game in rehearsals.

I get the feeling that the song does not suit Tali and that might cost them some points. 

My other major concern is that Luxembourg is missing all of its allies and does not have any secured points with the exception of those coming from Germany.

I am aware that the second half of this Semi is very low quality and the pimp slot is there to boost its chances but Luxembourg is gradually slipping to my borderline list.

If in the Final, anything better than a Bottom-5 result would be a great start for Luxembourg to build on it for the future.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%-0.1%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 15-30 - Total: 40-105

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Luxembourg making it to the Final, get an early draw somewhere between #3-#6 and finish 20th which would be fair for them.

Could they become the first pimp slot entry after 2017 (Latvia) that fails to qualify? Probably not but not impossible.

You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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My betting resolution for 2024 and a ghost from the past

 

When I started this blog back in 2019 the reason behind it was to have  my thought process during the season documented somewhere to go back and check myself for future reference.

Two hundred plus posts later, this will be the fifth contest that I will be covering and the first one with an Online Media Accreditation so I am curious to see if something will be different this year when it comes to my estimations and predictions.

I have checked my track record in both fields (estimations/predictions, betting tips) to check my progress through the years and these are the results.

Semi - Final Qualifiers

I will start my analysis of the past with my Semi - Final predictions regarding the qualifiers.

'19: 16/20 (7-9)

'21: 16/20 (8-8)

'22: 16/20 (9-7)

'23: 19/20 (10-9)

There is an improvement here that mostly has to do with the voting system, making it easier to predict the Top-10 with just one constituency instead of two. 

I always set as a minimum for myself to get 8/10 correct qualifiers and I can say that I am overall satisfied with the outcome.

I was very close last year to have a perfect 20/20, having Estonia 11th on my list and Greece qualifying!

The total score is 67/80.

Winners

We will always have Ukraine '22 to remind us/me that we can get it wrong. A bizarre year that will always be used as a case study. 

I am proud for the other three calls, especially with my analysis for Italy '21 win where I predicted the point margins for both constituencies and total as well.

Score: 3/4 and I highly anticipate this year where things are more complicated and interesting so far.

Top-3 

This one was a surprise for me having 2/3 correct predictions in all four editions so far. The main reason for this one, that is also apparent in my betting tips and will try to resolve this year (see below to resolution), is that I do overestimate the power of a country emerging after the Semi - Finals (Switzerland '19) or the power of some Jury magnets (Malta '21, Spain '23).

I think I have found the solution to that problem in my Know your Numbers 2024 Edition where it is obvious that the Top-3 consists of two Public vote magnets and just one Jury and not the other way around.

Total Score: 8/12

Top-5

There has been some improvement here as well, starting with 2/5 back in '19 and getting 4/5 in the other editions.

is it time for a 5/5? Maybe...

Total Score: 14/20

Top-10

There have been some ups and downs in this one.

'19: 7/10

'21: 9/10

'22: 8/10

'23: 7/10

Overall is not a bad result with the ones missing out being most of the times just outside the Top-10. I do set as a minimum though getting 8/10 so I am slightly below my average.

Total Score: 31/40

And now the most interesting part, my betting tips analysis!

Units invested and ROI

I will start with the bigger picture which is the total amount of units invested in the previous four years and the ROI.

Units Invested: 4132.7

Units Returned: 5330.8

ROI: 29%

Betting Tips: 19/64 29.7% (19/56 33.9% if fan bets are deducted)

Average odds per winning betting tip: 2.72

The good news is that there is 29% ROI with a very mediocre 29.7% of successful tips. The average odds per winning betting tip is also higher than I expected at 2.72 with just nine tips having odds lower than 2.00.

Breaking down the investment on a yearly basis gives the following results

'19 Units Invested: 629.4 - Units Returned: 487.4 - ROI: -22.6% - Betting Tips: 5/16

'21 Units Invested: 1191 - Units Returned: 1344.1 - ROI: 12.9% - Betting Tips: 5/15

'22 Units Invested: 1226.7 - Units Returned: 1328.7 - ROI: 8.3% - Betting Tips: 6/21

'23 Units Invested: 1085.6 - Units Returned: 2098.6 - ROI: 93.3% - Betting Tips: 3/12

It is very obvious that last year was the most profitable of all and that is thanks to a change that I have made on my betting strategy. The most impressive stat in my opinion is that last year I have almost doubled my investment having only 25% accuracy on my tips, but these winning tips did have the majority of the units invested on them.

Last year I have decided to reduce the amount of bets and invest more units in odds that do have the higher value. 

And now the breakdown that astonished me. I have checked my performance based on the Semi - Final 1/2 tips and the Grand Final and there is an elephant in the room.

Semi - Final 1: Units Invested: 500 - Units Returned: 861.9 - ROI: 72.4% - Betting Tips: 8/16

Semi - Final 2: Units Invested: 590 - Units Returned: 89.4 - ROI: -84.8% - Betting Tips: 2/16

Grand Final : Units Invested: 3042.7 - Units Returned: 4379.5 - ROI: 43.9% - Betting Tips: 9/32

The difference between Semi - Final 1 and Semi - Final is mind blowing. In fact the only two successful tips date back to 2019! 

Is there a reason behind that huge discrepancy? I do think that there is. Semi - Final 1 usually takes more focus and attention before and during rehearsals while Semi - Final 2 it gets a bit lost/forgotten, especially when rehearsals kick in with almost a week between their second rehearsal and the dress rehearsal.

The other explanation is that my tips for Semi - Final 2 tend to be a bit more riskier. 

My betting strategy for 2024

After examining my data I have decided to change some things again to improve my performance and my ROI. 

Compared to my personal books, which are open for two to three months every season, the ROI of my betting tips is almost half. My twenty year average ROI on betting in Eurovision is approximately 65%, having six seasons with 100%+ and only two losing seasons back in 2010 and 2011.

The first major change is about the number of tips per Semi - Final and Grand Final. I have decided to reduce them further aiming for a maximum of three per Semi - Final and a maximum of four for the Final.

My aim is to have a 50% accuracy that would automatically increase my ROI to 100%+ There were many tips in the past years that did have some value of course but were more of a stretch. 

I will try to minimize the risk and opt for safer bets, reducing the bets with very long odds that have not been that successful in the past.

I mentioned before that I have tipped only nine bets with odds shorter than 2.00, with the shorter odds being 1.61. 

I do not intend to go for shorter odds, unless there is no value elsewhere in a Semi - Final.

The Book for 2024

The format of my book will be the same as in previous years. 1000 units, 100 per Semi - Final, with the returned units invested again in Semi - Final 2 and/or Final if necessary, and 800 units allocated for the Final.

There will be a small change in my strategy in the Semi - Finals. I have decided that there is no reason to push my luck if I do not find value in any of the Semi - Finals, so there might be a case that I will not use the full 100 units allocated to each Semi and invest them straight in the Final.

Having a press pass this year will also allow me to go after bigger values during the dress rehearsals and the Jury shows, so watch out for any updates during the Eurovision week. 

I have also noticed a bias I had towards entries that gained some traction after the Semi - Finals and before the Final and overestimated their potential, placing them higher than their actual position (Switzerland '19, Ukraine '21, Israel '23).

The focus this year will be the accuracy.

Next week I will create a post with my book with all my tips for the season, that will be updated every time there is a new tip. There will be tweets to inform you about it.

Do not forget to follow my X account for all updates and the coverage of the Eurovision week. 

Good luck!

 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Portugal

 

First Thoughts:

Portugal had one of the few one horse race national finals of this year.

'Grito' did stand out from the day that the audio files of the entries were released and never looked back. 

The performance in Festival da Canção was spot on and remains to be seen if the natural force that 'Grito' has will take it to the Final.

Portugal has a great advantage and a great disadvantage at the same time. The good news is the running order, being the penultimate entry on stage and Luxembourg coming after them. The later the better, especially in a Semi - Final with eighteen entries if the automatic qualifiers are also included.

The major disadvantage is of course the genre of the song. A typical Portuguese slow-tempo sad song that with the older system would be sailing to the Final, now might be a marginal qualifier.

Quality wise Portugal should make the cut, having the latter draw to Serbia which is the other Jury magnet of the Semi. In case Serbia makes it though, we will probably have 7/7 qualifiers from the first half and that leaves room for only three more from the second half.

Assuming that Finland is safe, it is Portugal, Australia, Luxembourg and Slovenia fighting for the last two tickets and Luxembourg has the extra advantage of the pimp slot.

The market has been puzzled by this one and now is close to odds on, for the moment holding tight the tenth spot.

Portugal's history in Public Voting is not great either and for that reason I do find the current odds fair.

If I had to call it today, qualifying would be my answer. If it reaches the Final, I would not rule out a Top-10 result with Juries and a low Public Vote to leave Portugal hanging somewhere between 15th-22nd.

It reminds me of...

Portugal '08 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%-0.1%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

Final: Js: 40-125 - TV: 15-50 - Total: 55-175

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Portugal qualifying 10th and then getting a mid-table result with Juries and a Bottom-5 with Public Vote that will rank them 17th-20th.

You can hear my thoughts about Portugal in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Australia

First Thoughts:

I have to admit that when I first listened to 'One Mikali' I did have the impression that this could be a Melfest entry that would finish 5th-7th to its Heat.

It took a few more listens and a very favorable draw at #16 to move this one to my qualifiers list.

A decent song with some retro/80s' elements blended with some traditional aboriginal sounds and Zaachariaha's unique voice and staging presence could be prove more than enough for the qualification.

The fact that we have not seen the song live so far might be the factor that Australia is still going under the radar in terms of qualification, baring in mind that there are a few friends and allies in the Semi - Final.

Australia does traditionally struggle with the Public Vote but that second half is so weak that they just need to overcome one of Slovenia and Portugal to qualify, considering that Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland are no hopers.

The staging is the key and Australia has proven time after time that they do know how to lift their entries and create some hype almost out of nothing. 

This is the main reason behind the producer's choice to place them that late in the Semi - Final.

Advancing to the Final is the focus for them, but after they get there, I do feel that they will get lost in the crowd and they are most probably heading for their worst result in a Grand Final so far.

Bottom-5 is where I currently have them,

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%- 0.1%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-5 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ is Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 45-75

Final: Js: 10-50 - TV: 10-25- Total: 20-75

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Will the producers be kind to them twice and give them a good running order to boost their chances for a good result?

I reckon no and Australia will fall somewhere between 18th and 24th unless they have something very special to present us in a few weeks.

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Azerbaijan

 

First Thoughts:

I have to admit that I do not remember a country being so low-key in Eurovision like Azerbaijan is in the last two years.

I do get the sense that they do not care about Eurovision at all. 

There is no PR, no promo tours and everything is on auto-pilot until they get tired and withdraw.

'Özünlə Apar' is a very weak attempt to create an entry with Azerbaijani traditional music elements present. 

It is not a bad song but it feels like something that was made in a hurry. Its main problem is that there is no audience for this particular entry.

It is very middle on the road without a call for action. I would be more surprised to see Azerbaijan qualifying than finishing last in Semi - Final.

It reminds me of...

Armenia '18 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 25/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001%

Best case scenario:

Qualifying to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-35

Final: Js: 10-20 - TV: 10-20- Total: 20-40

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan getting on the first plane back to Baku on Wednesday morning. Not the worst song in the Semi - Final but most probably the one with the smallest target group. 

Would be a worthy fun bet for Last Place in Semi - Final if that market is available somewhere.

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Moldova

 

First Thoughts:

There are two or three countries this season that they give me the impression that they are not bothered to do Eurovision this year and Moldova is one of them.

Maybe it is the fact that Moldova had a series of very strong that did really well and we kind of forgot that bad years can also happen especially when your broadcaster does not have the funds to produce an expensive show.

It is Natalia Barbu again, being the sixth year in a row that Moldova is sending a returning artist to Eurovision and she has been the clear favorite the their national final.

'In the Middle' tries to blend pop and ethno elements but the result is not very successful. Even in that very weak second half of this Semi-Final, Moldova feels like the weakest link and I struggle to find a way this entry could qualify to the Final.

The only realistic goal would be to avoid the Bottom-3 in the Semi - Final and that could happen but will be far away from the qualification threshlod.

It reminds me of...

 Moldova '16, '19 (NQ x 2)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 26/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001%

Best case scenario:

11th in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last Place in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-35

Final: Js: 5-25 - TV: 15 -25 - Total: 20-50

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Moldova finishing 12th-13th in Semi - Final, far away from qualification with a double digit score. This is one of the three or four entries that I consider 100% non qualifiers no matter what.

You can hear some thoughts about Moldova in the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Germany

 

First Thoughts:

Isaak winning the German national final @27 and laying Ryk @1.30-1.35 have been my biggest wins in the national finals season.

'Always on the Run' is a decent entry that could get a decent jury score, somewhere in the middle, and be enough to propel Germany out of the Bottom-5. 

It is performing very good so far in the Eurojury, but I am very dubious that it could be that high next May.

There were also some positive comments about Isaak during the pre-parties but the same could be said for the majority of the entries and could have zero impact in the actual voting.

It is the type of entry that is someone's fifth-eighth song and that might not be enough to grab the phone and vote for it.

The only certainty there is for Germany right now is that it will not finish in the last place and that it could be a decisive factor in the winner race 'stealing' some jury points from the regional favorites (Switzerland, Netherlands).

There are other priorities for EBU/producers when it comes to Big-5 and that might hurt its minimal chances for a mid-table result.

The most realistic goal for them would be to finish in Top-10 with the Juries and avoid Bottom-3 in the Public vote.

I currently have Germany somewhere between 17th-23rd but I am open for a slightly better result than that.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 32.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%-0.1%

Best case scenario:

Mid-table result

Worst case scenario:

Last place

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Final: Js: 40-125 - TV: 5-25 - Total: 45-150

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany finishing mid-table in the Jury vote and get a double digit PV score, enough for them to finish 19th.

You can hear some thoughts about Germany in the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Know your Numbers 2024 Edition - The one post to rule them (numbers) all!

 

It has been a while since the last time that there was a 'Know Your Numbers' edition regarding the Grand Final results and I do reckon that we need one in an open year like this one. 

Eurovision is all about sentiments and feelings and how these two translate into points. 

We do have the same voting system since 2016, with a 50/50 split between Juries and Televote, with the latest addition of the Rest of the World voting as well, giving an upper hand to the viewers so the split this year is actually 49.3-50.7.

Even though we do have available the split results from 2009, with the exception of 2013, I do prefer to work with the data available from 2014 up to date which is the producers' era (producers deciding the running order) that does play a part when we analyze the point averages for the top.

So let's start the deep dive in numbers and I do hope that you will find this post useful when you are calculating the possibilities and the winning paths for you favorites and your covers.

The Ranking Averages 

Winners

In 9 editions we have never had a Winner that ranked lower than 3rd with the Public vote and lower than 4th with the Juries.

There were only 2 winners that won both constituencies ('14 Austria, '17 Portugal) and 2 more that failed to win any of the two ('16 Ukraine 2nd/2nd, '19 Netherlands 3rd/2nd).

The average Jury ranking for the Winner is 2.2 and 1.6 with the Public Vote. 

Runner-ups

The average Jury ranking for the 2nd place is 3.1 and for the Public Vote 2.6.

There are 2 Jury winners ('16 Australia, '22 UK) and 2 Public Vote winners ('15 Italy, '23 Finland) in this list.

There is no runner-up that ranked lower than 6th with the Juries ('15 Italy) and lower than 5th with the Public Vote ('22 UK).

Third Place

The first and only rank in Top-6 where the Jury average is better than the Public Vote's, 3.8 vs 4.4.

The only podium result that finished out of Top-10 with a constituency is '18 Austria (J:1st - PV: 13th) and the only podium result that finished out of Top-3 with both constituencies is '19 Russia (J:9th - PV:4th).

There are 2 Jury winners in this list ('18 Austria, '21 Switzerland) and just 1 PV winner ('16 Russia).

General Facts

The lower place for a Jury winner is 7th ('19 North Macedonia) and for a PV winner 6th ('19 Norway). These two are the only constituency winners that failed to finish in Top-3.

The worst place with a Jury Top-3 result is 7th ('19 North Macedonia) and with a PV Top-3 result is 8th ('16 Poland). 

Regarding the Juries

I have gone a step further and did the break down of the averages of the two constituencies and where they end up with the opposite constituency and their overall result.

Jury Winners

The Jury winners have an average rank of 2.3 in Totals and 5.2 in PV. There were 2 instances in which they ranked out of Top-10 with PV ('18 Austria 13th, '19 North Macedonia 12th).

In 4/9 cases the Jury winner won the Contest as well ('14 Austria, '15 Sweden, '17 Portugal, '23 Sweden).

Between '18-'22 the Jury winners failed to finish in Top-4 in the PV.

Jury 2nd place

The discrepancy between Jury and PV rankings is even bigger when we move to the 2nd place that averages 3.7 in Totals and 6.8 in PV. Only 1 winner comes from this list ('16 Ukraine).

Jury 3rd place

It has produced 2 winners ('18 Israel, '19 Netherlands), one more than the second place! It averages 5.2 in PV and 3.6 in Totals.

Jury 4th place

It has also produced 2 winners ('21 Italy, '22 Ukraine) and 2 runner ups ('19 Italy, '23 Finland) in the last four contests!!!

It has an average of 8.2 with the PV and 4.6 Overall.

PV Winners

The PV Winner has a slightly better average in Totals than the Jury one, 2 vs 2.3, and similar average in Jury 5.1.

5/9 won the Contest as well and '19 Norway is the only winner that not only failed to finish in Top-3 but went all the way down to 6th!

There are only 2 PV winners that also won the Juries ('14 Austria, '17 Portugal)  and these are the only times that the PV winner finished in Jury Top-2.

PV 2nd place

3/9 winners ranked 2nd in PV ('16 Ukraine, '19 Netherlands, '23 Sweden).

Compared to Jury 2nd place, PV has a better average in Totals, 2.7 vs 3.7, and in Jury, 5.3 vs 6.8 which is another proof of PV power versus the Juries.

'21 Ukraine (5th) and '22 Moldova (7th) the only two results that did not reach the podium.

PV 3rd place

The Swedish way applies here. '15 Sweden is the only country that won the Contest finishing 3rd or lower in the PV. 

Jury vs PV average rankings and who has the upper hand

It is clear that the PV has an advantage compared to the Jury rankings and secures better placings. They tend to hold their position more than the Jury high rankers that are more affected by the PV scores.

Just to give you an idea

The average ranking in Totals for the Jury and PV Top-5 

Winner: J:2.3 - PV:2

2nd:      J:3.7 - PV:2.7

3rd:      J:3.6 - PV:3.6

4th:      J:4.6 - PV:4.4

5th:      J:5.9 - PV:5.4

Things look balanced here with a slight advantage for the PV high rankers but when we check the Totals Top-5 rankers and their averages with the two constituencies then we have a better view of the discrepancy between the two.

The average ranking of the Totals' Top-5 with the Jury and PV

Winner: J:2.2 - PV:1.6

2nd:      J:3.1 - PV:2.6

3rd:      J:3.8 - PV:4.4

4th:      J:5.2 - PV:5

5th:      J:8.4 - PV:5.7

What about the Points Averages?

The average rankings do provide a very clear picture of how things work and what is needed in both constituencies to win the Contest or have a winning path, but the points averages do give a higher resolution to that picture and could prove more useful when things are marginal and the race is very tight.

What I have done this year in order to draw more conclusions and get a better idea of how things could evolve in May is that I have converted all the points of the '14-'23 as if they were 37 country lineups every year for the Jury scores and a 38 country lineups for the PV scores to include the Rest of the World points as well.

This method will help me estimate/calculate better the points that the high rankers would/could receive in May.

The first finding that stands out is the amount of 300+ pts scores in both constituencies.

Jury  has only 3 scores in that range: 

'23 Sweden - 340

'17 Portugal - 335.4

'15 Sweden - 334.4

PV has 9 scores in that range. 2018 and 2019 were the only editions that have not produced a score of 300+.

'22 Ukraine - 416.5

'23 Finland - 376

'15 Italy - 366.2

'17 Portugal - 339.3

'16 Russia - 325.8 

These are the five highest PV scores.

Moving down to the 200+ scores, the discrepancy continues in favor of the PV

Jury has scored 200+ Pts in 18 occasions while the PV has done that 23 times.

Regarding the Juries, there is only one year (2015) that the Jury has produced 4 entries with 200+ points and there are three editions ('14, '19, '22) that had 3 200+ results. 

There were also two years {'16, '23) with just one country reaching the 200+ threshold.

PV on the other hand has only one case ('14) that has only 2 entries over the 200+ limit and the rest have three or more, with the maximum being 5 in 2017.

Comparing the points averages between the two constituencies

The whole post comes down to this section which is the most important and could be eye opening when it comes to the points a contender needs to secure for the win.

The Holy Grail of Eurovision stats is the combination that will secure the win and here are the average points for the Top-6 with each constituency. These are the only ranks where PV has a better average than Jury.

Winner

J: 275.9 - PV: 333.9 (+58)

2nd Place

J: 216.7 - PV: 254.1 (+37.4)

3rd Place

J: 191.6 - PV: 225.9 (+34.3)

4th Place

J: 168.3 - PV: 201.7 (+33.4)

5th Place

J: 151.6 - PV: 172.3 (+20.7)

6th Place

J: 130.8 - PV: 152.4 (+21.6)

I bet you have already noticed that the PV averages from 3rd to 6th are higher than a place higher in Jury, even finishing 2nd in PV is just 22 points short from the Jury winner. 

There is also a 30+ points handicap between the two constituencies in all Top-3 spots. 

We have not had a Jury winner yet that has scored more points than the PV winner.

The Holy Grail of the Eurovision stats

The magic number for any contender is 500 points. Most of the times it will be enough to secure the win. 

It is clear that the Jury magnets do have a handicap but is also a fact that only the two constituency winners can reach with some combinations the 500 points.

The Jury winner combos that secure the 500 points threshold are

J:1 - PV: 2 - 530 points 

J:1 - PV: 3 - 501.8 points

Things are more promising for the PV winner that has an extra path available.

PV: 1 - J:2 - 550.6 points

PV:1 - J:3 - 525.5 points

PV:1 - J:4 - 502.2 points

The Public vote has the upper hand in every scenario.

What happens if we move the threshold down to 450 points though? 

The Jury winner can finish as low as 5th in PV to marginally lose the 450 mark (448.pts) while the PV could finish even 7th in Jury (459.2 pts). 

Moving down to the 2nd place, the Jury side can reach it only by finishing 2nd as well in PV (470.8 pts) and the same combination applies for the PV. 

J:2 - PV:3 (442.6 pts) and J:3 - PV:2 (445.7 pts) miss the threshold for a few points.

What is very clear is that only the two constituency winners have an actual chance to win the contest with the PV winner having the easiest path.

All the other combinations that do not contain the winner with any of the two constituencies rely on external factors to carve a path to victory.

The J:2 - PV: 2 would need for instance the Jury winner to finish 5th or lower in the PV and the PV winner to finish 7th or lower with the Jury at the same time.

How to predict the Eurovision Winner ? The 10 commandments

Step 1: Find the PV winner.

Step 2: Can the PV winner  finish in Top-4 with the Juries? 

Yes! - You have found the winner - No. - Go to Step 3.

Step 3: Find the Jury winner.

Step 4: Can the Jury winner finish in Top-3 in the PV?

Yes! - You have  found the winner - No. - Go to Step 5.

Step 5: Is the J:2 - PV:2 combination possible?

Yes! - You have  found the winner - No. - Go to Step 6.

Step 6: Can your PV winner finish in Top-7 in the Jury?

Yes! - You have  found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 7.

Step 7: Can your PV:2 finish 3rd in the Jury?

Yes! -  You have  found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 8.

Step 8: Can your Jury winner finish in Top-5 in the PV?

Yes! -  You have  found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 9.

Step 9: Can both constituencies agree that the same entry is finishing third?

Yes! -  You have  found the winner. - No. - Go to Step 10.

Step 10: Start adding the potential scores with both constituencies for your contenders and the biggest total wins!

It has been a very long read full with numbers and kudos if you made it to this point. 

Do not forget that the numbers mentioned above are the averages. They are a good starting point for your calculations but you will always need to adjust them to the specifics of the lineup.

Feel free to comment or ask any questions.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Finland

 

First Thoughts:

'If it aint broke don't fix it' is Finland's moto for Eurovision in the '20s and Windows95man is here to continue Kaarija's legacy!

Juries will hate this one with all their heart and it remains to find out if there is room for one more fun entry to be up there in the Televote Top-10.

The competition is rough and Finland in my eyes could be a decisive factor in crowning the Televote and Eurovision winner depending on the amount of Televote points that will be able to get in the Nordic/Baltic region and the Western Europe. 

I do think it will be somewhere between the 60-100 threshold that will not be enough to secure a Top-10 or even a Top-15 result in the Final.

It could actually do a lot worse if the region gets behind Netherlands or Norway and Finland is left with the crumbs.

I do like Finland on a personal level and I do think that there will a substantial number of viewers that will find this entry funny/hilarious/brilliant and it does have a call for action however I am not sure how many viewers will actually vote this one instead of the stronger packages.

I will not be surprised if this one though finishes in Top-3 in the Semi - Final.

It reminds me of...

 Romania '13(Q) - Austria '03

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 100-140

Final: Js: 5-15 - TV: 50 -175 - Total: 55-190

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland will sail in the Final and there is a matter of circumstances and luck. It needs a second half draw and to be far away from Netherlands, Croatia to stand a chance to crack Top-10 or could very well struggle if in first half.

I do think it will land somewhere between 16th-20th for the moment.

You can hear some more thoughts about Finland in Episode 2 of 'Talk About Things' 

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Talk About Things - The Eurovision Expert Analysis Podcast with Matt Rickard, Panos Zannettos and me (Yiannis Kefalidis) - (12/04 update)

 In this post, I will be adding the links and a small synopsis of every episode of the Talk About Things podcast that was launched this season.

Last summer we had this idea of creating a zoom meeting once a week throughout the '24 season and then one thing led to another and the zoom meeting has turned into a podcast, keeping the same concept. Three friends that happen to be Eurovision experts that share their thought process and insights about the entries.

We are happy to announce that all three of us will be covering the Eurovision week as an Online Media outlet and we will be bringing to you the daily action before and after the shows! 

Stay tuned and feel free to use the comments section here and on X to keep the conversation going!

Talk About Things - Episode 9

The one about the pre-parties and the winners/losers emerging from them. Special mentions to Belgium, Ireland, Croatia, Georgia, San Marino and Germany...

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Talk About Things - Episode 8

The must hear episode that is all about the Contenders, the potential contenders and their paths to victory!

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Talk About Things - Episode 7

Matt, Panos and I talk about the Semi - Finals running order, the winners and the losers of the draw. One to keep in mind when placing your Semi - Final bets...

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Talk About Things - Episode 6

Chatting about Australia, Greece, Sweden, Portugal, Israel, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. 

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Talk About Things - Episode 5

Sharing our insights about Switzerland, Netherlands, Cyprus, UK, Austria, Iceland and Serbia. What was our first impressions for Switzerland and Netherlands? Have things changed as the season progresses?

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Talk About Things - Episode 4

The one about Croatia! And Belgium and San Marino, but mostly about Croatia

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Talk About Things - Episode 3

The week of the fallen national final favorites. Chatting about Germany, Moldova, Estonia, Denmark, Lithuania, Poland.

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Talk About Things - Episode 2

The one about Luxembourg, Norway, Spain, Malta, Ukraine, Finland, Latvia, Italy. Some valid points for Ukraine and Italy.

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Talk About Things - Episode 1

The very first episode. Talking about France, Czechia, Albania, Slovenia and Ireland.

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Iceland

 

First Thoughts:

I could write a whole essay about what happened in Iceland this season and that essay could extend to 100 pages and only half page would have been about the actual song that will represent Iceland this year.

Hera Bjork is returning to Eurovision after fourteen years with an entry that feels more dated than her 2010 entry...

Iceland has taken the right decision to send an entry that represents Iceland and not Palestine or anti-Israel and a huge headache for EBU is out of the way.

Unfortunately for Iceland though that decision means that at the same time they have rejected a certain Top-10 and potentially a Top-5 result and will be staying in Semi - Final 1. 

I do have Iceland as the weakest entry of the whole lineup this year and producers placing them at #8 in running order after all the big names is the final nail in their coffin.

I will be surprised if Iceland does not finish last or avoids a Bottom-3 result.

It reminds me of...

UK '21 (Last Place)

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 23/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

.0000001%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Semi -Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-25

Final: Js: 0-10 - TV: 0-10 - Total: 0-20

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sometimes doing the right thing comes with consequences and had Iceland wanted to reject Bashar as their entry, they should have opted for the other available option in their national final, but instead they went for the big local name.

Finishing last in Semi - Final.

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Breaking the Winner's Code...

 

We are less than a month away from the rehearsals and it is time to have a look at the Winner's market and the countries that will be contending.

This year appears to be very open and the things have been very tight near the top with countries switching places between first and fifth.

Before I start mentioning the countries that are in my contenders list I will try to give a short definition of what I do consider a contender.

Contender is an entry that does stand out of the crowd, has a USP and it does offer a moment during the three minutes. That moment could be visual, sentimental, musical perfection, anything that will call the viewer/juror to action. 

This is the first half of my definition and the second half is more boring and it is about math. 

A contender is an entry that could potentially reach 500 points which is the threshold that, most of the times, secures the win. The easiest way to reach to that threshold is to score approximately 300 points with the Televote and 200 points with the juries, unless you are Sweden or Australia that is always the other way around.

 There are some minimums to be achieved for an entry to be in contention.

For juries, the bare minimum is the 150 points threshold, that usually corresponds to 4th-6th place and that means that you need to have a super strong televote magnet that could score more than 350 points there and even that sometimes might not be enough (call me Kaarija).

The bare minimum for the televote is 200 points, again assuming that your entry will score 300+ jury points.

Taking in consideration the 2014-2023 split results that are in the producers' era as well, we have had two entries that finished 4th with the Juries and won (Italy '21, Ukraine '22) and also two more winners that finished 3rd (Israel '18, Netherlands '19).

On the other hand, there is only one country that finished 3rd in the televote and won and that is Sweden '15. Needless to say there is no winner finishing fourth or lower with that constituency.

The average jury ranking for the winners in the '14-'23 span is 2.2 and the average televote ranking is 1.6.

The more we are advancing to the season, the more I think that the contenders will reach or will be very close to those thresholds and even though I was tempted to lower them a bit to go down to 450 points, I stick with my guns to the 500 points for the definition of a contender.

I will share with you some thoughts and the pros and cons for each entry. Feel free to agree or disagree with me.

I have a list with three tiers. Tier 1 includes the two entries that I feel that they have a winning path depending on their performance alone and that path is open with both constituencies.

My Tier 2 includes two more entries that they could find a way to carve a winning path, but they could either fall short with one of the constituencies or simply do not have enough to beat both entries of Tier 1. These are my default winners.

My Tier 3 includes a pool of countries that need to land the perfect storm and do great really great with their constituency and achieve a respectable score with the other. Their chances are theoretical and they need to stage something unique and get some hype during rehearsals.

Grab your popcorn and have fun!

Currently trading @3.60 in betfair, is crashing big time since last Saturday when we got the chance to hear Nemo live for the first time and that was a show!

It was clear since its release day that if Nemo can pull the live and the staging is there, Switzerland is the one to beat and the market is heading to that direction. Fredrik Benke Rydman, the man behind 'Heroes' and 'Cha Cha Cha' among others does feel like a great choice and guarantees an amazing staging.

Switzerland is actively trying to win since '19 ( 4th-'19, 3rd-'21) and history implies that when you try, eventually you also win.

Having not won since '88 makes them an ideal winner as well, with the mentions to Celine Dion etc.

There is an interesting statistical fact as well. In the '10s, we have had five winners being internally selected and five winners coming from national finals. The last internally selected winner was back in '19. Maybe Switzerland is the first one in the 20's.

Pros:

- The potential Jury winner, have established themselves in that category the last few years

- Could find the 175-225 televote points that needs to secure the win

- Nemo's charisma and staging presence

- Switzerland's recent streak of good results with both constituencies

Cons:

- There is a chance that their televote score could struggle if in first half and/or appearing before the big televote magnets (Croatia, Netherlands).

Winning Path:

Jury: 250-300 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-225 pts - 3rd/6th

Croatia is the runner up on the Winner's market currently @5.80, losing the reigns after a month leading the odds. 

Baby Lasagna feels like the televote winner and although I do think that he will not reach 'Cha Cha Cha' numbers, he could be very close to the 300 points threshold. 

The tough part for Croatia are the Juries. I do think that they stand a chance to be the quirky/strange/extravagant entry that could land a Top-5 result with them, like Finland did last year and Ukraine with some aid of course back in '22.

I do think that Juries stretch their limits on accepting/recognizing this type of entries year after year and Croatia could be on the perfect spot to materialize this acceptance into a Eurovision win. 

We have not had a new winner for a long time as well (Portugal '17 the last one) and that could mean something for a region that needs a spark to join the contest again.

Pros:

- Potential televote winner

- Could/Will be the talk of the town during the week of the contest

- Could be the de facto representative of Balkans/Eastern Europe

- They can get a good sum of jury points (50-75) from neighbors and friends and they just need the random 2s-6s here and there to reach the magic number (175).

- There are some countries that could be higher with Juries but will be irrelevant for the win race and could give Croatia some breathing space finishing even 6th-8th there ( Belgium, France, Sweden, Lithuania, UK)

Cons:

- It is all about the Juries. I might be overestimating his chances.

- I don't think he will have the same staging as in Dora, but if that is the case then it might be a bit chaotic

Winning Path:

Jury: 150-200 - 4th/6th

Televote: 250-300+ - 1st/2nd

This is my Tier 1 and I do think think that it will be a very close race between the two of them. I give Switzerland the upper hand on a 50/50 call just because they could score slightly better with televote than Croatia could potentially score with juries. 

There is the possibility to have a third contender but we need to wait for the rehearsals and the Semi- Finals to find that out.

Now moving to my Tier 2, where I have placed my two default winners.

This is the one entry that it seems I cannot rate the same way as the majority of the market does.

In theory, Italy feels like a Top-3 entry with both constituencies, but I do have the feeling that it could underperform at least with one of the two and that is televote.

There is a list of countries that could score better than Italy in that section, apart from the obvious two (Croatia, Netherlands) that could extend to five or six more ( Ukraine, Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Lithuania). 

It is not the most probable scenario but Italy could finish 7th-8th in televote and that is not enough for the win.

My other objection is that Italy is a recent winner, Rai gives the impression that they are not particularly interested in winning and hosting again and EBU I am sure that would not like the contest back to Italy any time soon. 

Back in '22 and even the last year, Italy was giving me the impression that they were sabotaging their own entry to make sure that they will not win.

Pros:

- Angelina's charisma and staging presence

- Italy's proven record with both constituencies recently

- The entry that in theory is in Top-3 with both constituencies

Cons:

- Angelina will need a moment on stage now that the orchestra will not be there to interact with them

- Angelina lost the televote in San Remo hands down by Geolier and in Eurovision she will meet tougher competition with more 'Geoliers' present. She needs to prove herself with the juries as well and prove that she did not win San Remo because the jurors backed her to take the win away from Geolier.

- EBU will prioritize France for sure, UK maybe as well, above Italy. Giving Italy the 2nd half draw and France the 1st half in the Semi - Final is an indication of a reversed position in the Final if in same half. Italy will be the first one to 'sacrifice' for another strong/potential contender.

Winning path:

Jury: 225-275 - 1st/3rd

Televote: 200-250 - 2nd/4th

Four months ago, Ukraine was leading the market and now is a steady fourth, drifting a bit day by day and heading to the double digits for the first time this year.

In theory, Ukraine has 200+ televote points in the bag thanks to the diaspora and friends that could secure a Top-3 there.

The question is how high could they end up with the juries. This is the type of entry where 7th-11th feels its natural habitat.

Will the juries award it more or will they try to secure that a third Ukrainian win is not happening in eight years?

Another recent winner, that was also benefited by the EBU's stance back in '22 and it feels that its hype is fading away. 

It has a very solid 300 points threshold that could be enough for them to finish 4th-6th but I fail to see them going higher than that.

Let's not forget that Ukraine was the runner up in the odds for most part of the season and went back to double digits by the time of the Semi - Finals just because it was the big unknown or the elephant in the room, with a slightly less effective entry to be fair though. 

Pros:

- Diaspora and friends that secure easily 200 televote points

- Could be Top-4/5 with Juries

Cons:

- Juries could/would mark it down if they feel it is a contender

- Is not a priority for producers/EBU to get a good running order

- The momentum is fading away

Winning Path:

Jury: 175-225 - 3rd/5th

Televote: 200-300 - 1st/3rd

Tier 3 has a pool of entries that need an extraordinary result with one of the two constituencies and a great result with the other one in order to create a path for the win. 

Their chances are only theoretical and they all need a major step up in rehearsals to improve their chances for the win.

There is no reason for the moment to get in much detail and I will just mention their winning paths and the major cons and pros just to have the picture.

Slimane needs to win the Juries by a landslide, scoring 325+ and then be Top-4/6 with televote to secure 150-175 points there.

I could see a path for the Juries, but achieving the televote score as well could prove a tough ask. My current projection gives them 50-75 televote points.

France has 200-250 points as a starting point and needs to build from there but is the first one on my list that could very well end up outside the Top-10 if certain things go wrong.

Netherlands is meant to finish Top-2/3 with the televote and there is a chance they could even win there, but I do doubt that they can get more than 300 points there.

That means they need 175+ jury points and this is where things get complicated. Apart from the genre that is not juror's cup of tea and I am open minded about getting past that obstacle, Netherlands has really tough competition in that region alone to get those jury points. 

There are Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Germany and France that will be competing for the 6s-12s in the same region and Netherlands will lose a great deal of points because of that reason. 

Could see them cracking Top-3 but going higher than that needs the perfect storm.

The 2024 elephant in the room. Israel has a very very narrow path where its diaspora backs them heavily to secure a great televote score of 250+ televote points and the juries award their entry that genre-wise is considered a jury bait and secure circa 200 points with them. 

I could see the televote part happening and a part of the jury love happening, but I am sure that certain jurors will mark this one down and make sure that an Israeli win is not happening this year. 

And this is where my list with contenders, default winners and wannabe contenders ends. 

 My feel is that we are heading for a two horse race, with a pack of countries following from a distance.

I am still open for a third country joining the favorites but we need to wait for the rehearsals.

I am happy to inform you that my Online Media Press Accreditation was approved and I will be covering the rehearsals and the shows online during that week.

You can hear my thoughts about the contenders in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 08

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Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section here and on X as well!

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Poland

 

First Thoughts:

After months of speculations that Justyna would represent Poland, it was Luna in the end the one that was chosen with her song 'The Tower' and she will try to extend Poland's qualifying streak to three consecutive years.

Poland is still flying under the radar, most probably because fans were expecting Justyna, but it does have all the elements that could secure a respectable result in May.

Luna is very unique and able performer, the song is catchy enough and accessible to both Eastern and Western ears and Poland does have its diaspora to help as well.

The Semi - Final draw has been tough for Poland being sandwiched between Ukraine and Croatia but Televote has never been the problem for them, especially in a Semi - Final with many friends and allies.

It remains to be seen what could Poland do in the Final when they get there. In theory a Top-10 result with the Juries is probable and if diaspora backs 'The Tower' as well, I would not be surprised to see Poland reaching the Top-10.

A mid table result feels a safe option for the moment and we are waiting to see if and how the staging could boost the entry.

It reminds me of...

Czechia '22 (Q),

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

Final: Js: 50-125 - TV: 50-125 - Total: 100-250

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is a tough one for the moment as it has a wide range. My feeling says that is should be near the Top-10 but for the moment flies under the radar, so I will settle with the definition of mid table and say 13th-14th.

If in Top-10 with Juries though, anything could happen.

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 03

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