This is the first time I am writing a review about Luxembourg and I am so excited about their return in the Contest.
They have organized a great national final in terms of production which was not bad for a first attempt.
Tali won with 'Fighter' and she will be fighting for a spot in the Grand Final after thirty one years.
EBU and producers played their part giving Luxembourg the pimp slot in the Semi - Final to boost its chances.
When I first heard the song was not exactly impressed but I did find it competitive enough to qualify and get a decent amount of points to finish somewhere in the middle.
After hearing the revamp Ι am not so sure about that any more. In theory Luxembourg is a certain qualifier, but I do find its current odds very short and would be tempted to bet against them if Portugal and Australia up their game in rehearsals.
I get the feeling that the song does not suit Tali and that might cost them some points.
My other major concern is that Luxembourg is missing all of its allies and does not have any secured points with the exception of those coming from Germany.
I am aware that the second half of this Semi is very low quality and the pimp slot is there to boost its chances but Luxembourg is gradually slipping to my borderline list.
If in the Final, anything better than a Bottom-5 result would be a great start for Luxembourg to build on it for the future.
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 7/10
Staging Potential: 7/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 7/10
Total: 33.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.01%-0.1%
Best case scenario:
Top-15
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 40-70
Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 15-30 - Total: 40-105
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Luxembourg making it to the Final, get an early draw somewhere between #3-#6 and finish 20th which would be fair for them.
Could they become the first pimp slot entry after 2017 (Latvia) that fails to qualify? Probably not but not impossible.
You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
I'm not sure Germany will be a voting ally - I think the only country likely to have a bias towards them will be Belgium, but I guess we'll see the statistics after a couple of years. Luxembourg's televote will definitely always provide Portugal with 12 points on the other hand!
ReplyDeleteI do think they will get some points from Germany but they are missing Belgium, Netherlands, Israel for this year for sure.
ReplyDeleteLuxembourg's PV 12 pts to Portugal is a done deal