There's no Going Back! (Meow)

 

This has been the wildest week in Eurovision history for sure. 

The last 48hrs have been the absolute madness and there hasn't been a single hour without a new drama unfolding.

Everything started in Thursday night, just after the finish of Semi - Final 2 and the accidental release of the 'partial'? Italian televote where Israel was land sliding the win.

There was a snowball effect with Israel's price crashing from mid 40s to 4s-5s making Israel the second favorite to win after Croatia.

And then there was another drama unfolding yesterday with the Dutch representative Joost allegedly attacking an EBU employee and just a few hours ago it was decided that Netherlands will not be participating in the Eurovision Grand Final reducing the lineup to twenty five entries. 

Netherlands will be able to vote though, like Serbia and Montenegro did back in 2006. 

In between them, there was the decision for the Running Order of the Final and I do reckon we have witnessed an intervention from EBU to make sure that two things will not be happening tonight:

1. Israel doesn't win and

2. Ukraine does not win either.

Israel got the Malta '21 treatment given #6 and Ukraine got the death slot #2, something that has never happened to a contender in the past. Netherlands was also sacrificed at #5 to reduce the Israeli public somehow but Joost had other plans. The message is we sacrifice the recent winners and give the contenders that have not won for a while the chance to win.

The biggest winners were Croatia #22 now, Switzerland #20 and France #24. Croatia got the most favorable slot just a few spots before the closing which is the optimal place to be and Switzerland is coming first after a not so strong part of the Final. France has the latest draw of all to boost a bit its public vote score where it needs help.

Baby Lasagna had the underdog label for the whole season but he was transformed in stage to a powerful character that can carry the stadium and the viewers with him. The public loves him and I reckon that the televoters and the pure fans of the Contest will unite under his umbrella to save the Contest from the unthinkable that would have been an Israeli win this year.

EBU is trying everything in its power to help him win as well and a Croatian win could signal the return of some Balkan countries back in the Contest, now that the tank is getting empty.

Nemo has been remarkable on stage delivering a faultless performance. He is the most probable Jury winner from last night and the audience poll in the stadium suggested that his public vote appeal is bigger than the one the market suggested, something that I have highlighted in my contender's analysis some time ago.

It all comes down to how the public will react to the possibility of an Israeli win and if they will split the votes between Croatia and Switzerland or will sacrifice some votes to support Croatia. Switzerland is not chanceless yet and could be close to Croatia.

Netherlands' absence might send some regional public votes his way though. 

Israel was always the x factor and it is very surprising that the market was caught off guard  with the fear of missing out spreading fast since Thursday night. 

There was always the speculation that the Israeli public vote would be really high because of the diaspora and pro-Israeli supporters and they have played the 'victim' card really nice. We still do not know the extent of this, but there will be jurors that will blank this one to make sure that they will not win. 

These are the three contenders for tonight in my opinion and it could a close race. There was this narrative floating around the whole season that we will end up with a winner in the 400-450 points threshold. 

Many analyses out there were suggesting that this is the most possible outcome, however with everything that has happened in the last few days, I do expect the opposite. 

My prediction is that we will have a Top-2 in the 500+ close to 600 points area with a third entry way over the 400 points with the rest of the pack following from distance.

Here is my breakdown for tonight and some thoughts about how the night could evolve

1. Croatia

Estimated Points: 545-600 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 225-250)

There was the notion that Croatia would struggle with Juries but Baby Lasagna was more than strong last week and a Top-3 there is more than possible, especially now that some Juries will back him to prevent Israel winning.

Anything above 175 points could be enough.

Metrics to watch out: Croatia needs a 75-100 points headstart from Israel and be less than 100 points behind Switzerland to secure the win.

2. Switzerland

Estimated Points: 520 - 560 (Tv: 240-260 - Juries: 280-300)

Metrics to watch out: It all depends on how high Switzerland can go with the Public vote and how big will be their lead with the Juries. Could be the deciding factor for Israel's loss if the Jury score reaches the 300 points threshold leaving a breathing space to them and /or Croatia. 

If they can reach the 325 threshold, they can actually win.

Nemo does deserve to finish up there and Top-3 is a lock in my opinion. 

3. Israel

Estimated Points: 390 - 440 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 60-80)

Performing at #5 suggests that their potential public vote lead is controllable. I do think that their televote estimation is the worst case scenario and I do think that the Juries will try to balance it.

If they end up with the win, EBU will be left with a very damaged product for the '25 edition and Pandora's box will be open. 

Metrics to watch out: 100-125 jury points and people will start sweating, 150+ and Israel should be considered the winner. Assuming that their Jury result will be low, we will know their televote score quite early.

4. France

Estimated Points: 320 - 375 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 220-250)

Metrics to watch out: Slimane relies on his jury score to secure a Top-4/5 result and I do think he will be there in the end.

5. Ukraine

Estimated Points: 310 - 360 (Tv: 190-220 - Juries: 120-140)

Ukraine has been the major victim of the running order but getting a third political win in the last eight years would not be fair for the other participants. 

Could have been a Top-3 contender if later in the draw, and there is a minor chance this still happens if the diaspora backs them. Top-5 should be considered a safe bet.

Metrics to watch out: This will be a case study for the power of the Ukrainian diaspora and how strong that diaspora is in terms of affecting the public vote results. 

6. Italy 

Estimated Points: 250-300 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 150-175)

Italy got a running order in the middle, far away from the other contenders but could also be the entry that will suffer the most from the polarized voting tonight.

Italy could potentially sneak in Top-5 but I reckon it is more probable to be a few places lower than higher from where I currently have them.

7. Ireland

Estimated Points: 210-250 (Tv: 170-190 - Juries: 40-60)

8. Greece 

Estimated Points: 190-235 (Tv: 110-135 - Juries: 80-100)

9. Portugal 

Estimated Points: 165-210 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 125-150)

10. Lithuania

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 60-80)

11. Sweden

Estimated Points: 130-175 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 100-125)

12. Latvia 

Estimated Points: 120-165 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 100-125)

13. UK

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 80-100)

14. Serbia

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 70-90)

15. Georgia

Estimated Points: 85-125 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 25-45)

16. Armenia

Estimated Points: 60-100 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 20-40)

17. Estonia

Estimated Points: 55-90 (Tv: 50-75 - Juries: 5-15)

18. Norway

Estimated Points: 40-80 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 20-40)

19. Spain

Estimated Points: 35-75 (Tv: 15-35 - Juries: 20-40)

20. Cyprus

Estimated Points: 45-70 (Tv: 20-30 - Juries: 25-40)

21. Luxembourg

Estimated Points: 30-70 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 20-40)

22. Germany

Estimated Points: 30-65 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 25-45)

23. Slovenia

Estimated Points: 25-60 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 20-40)

24. Finland

Estimated Points: 10-40 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 0-10)

25. Austria

Estimated Points: 5-25 (Tv: 5-15 - Juries: 0-10)

Before getting to my betting tips for tonight a few words about my personal book this season. 

Croatia or Switzerland winning the Contest will be enough to have my most profitable Eurovision season ever, backing them both from the early days of their releases. 

I have a position on Israel just to break even in case they win, having already cashed out the biggest part of my position there.

I have neither backed or laid Italy and Ukraine throughout the season and had a small amount on Netherlands being very happy with that strategy coming with a small amount of dead money the night of the Final. 

I have also backed Croatia in the Top-3/4 market earlier this month and last month in longer odds and have also France in Top-4/5 markets.

Portugal, Greece and Lithuania are my calls for the Top-10 market and have some positions in the Top-15 on Latvia, Georgia, Portugal and UK, all the 2.50-4.50 area.

For the last place contention I have Austria and Luxembourg as my main contenders again at double digit odds.

And now the time you were waiting for...The tips for tonight. My Semi - Final bets have been subpar this year, chasing some values there that did not turn into profit. My only remorse is that I should have had Belgium NQ there as well, but I did mention that it was on my book and also tweeted during the show so I do hope that some of you followed that as well.

Having 0 units returned from the Semi - Finals I have 800 units available for the Final. 

I am not tipping Croatia, currently at 1.96 just because I think there is no real value there at the moment, but I do think this is our Winner tonight and I wish you have backed him earlier in the season.

In my betting resolution for this year, I have mentioned that I am aiming for the accuracy this year so I will keep my promise and just make three suggestions for tonight 

Portugal To Finish in Top-15 @ 2.60 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Greece To Finish in Top-10 @ 1.83 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Top-Nordic Sweden @ 2.06 (Bf Exchange) x 150 units

 and will add 50 units for my fun bets

Austria To Finish Last @ 19.50 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Portugal to Finish in Top-10 @ 7.60 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight. I do hope that will find my post useful for the long night that is ahead of us.

I wish I could have given you more insight and suggestions about bets but it has been crazy the last few days trying to catch up with all the dramas unfolding.

I will be active on X later tonight to comment on the results and of course, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of Talk About Things with Panos and Matt.

Crown Rim Tim Tagi Dim!

 

It is almost six months since the day we have heard the first song for the season and here we are! 

Semi - Final 1 is here to entertain us and the two halves feel like the yin and yang.

The first half is one of the stronger we ever had while the second one is one of the weakest ever.

We had the conversation throughout the season that the impossible would happen and we could have 7/7 qualifications from the first half, something that has never happened.

The market suggests that it will happen, but I am more optimistic with a 6/7. If there is justice, all seven should have qualified because the second half does not have more than three entries that deserve to be in the Final. 

So these are my thoughts for tonight.

Cyprus is sailing to the Final being the ideal opener. Its current odds are at 1.31 fair but with no value in my opinion.

Serbia has an entry that if in second half, would have easily qualified to the Final, but this is not an ordinary lineup and Serbia has everything against them. Very few allies and diaspora present in the Semi - Final, the death slot at #2. Since 2013 that we have the producers choosing the running order, there were only 3 entries that managed to be in the Public vote's Top-10 (Armenia x 2, Poland) both countries with big enough diaspora to back them and help them qualify. 

Add to that the fact that Serbia is qualifying with difficulty every year and I think the time for a non qualification has come after 2013, when they failed to qualify performing from the pimp slot. 

The first half of 'Ramonda' is taking a while to lift off and that might cost them. Having the three direct qualifiers also performing prolongs the duration of the Semi - Final as well and Serbia will be forgotten by the time we reach the last entry.

I have been laying Serbia since the running order was decided and this will be my main bet for tonight. The lay is currently at 1.67 (NQ 2.48). I will be happy if they qualify but for all the reasons mentioned above the non qualification is the value bet.

Lithuania will be battling for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi - Final currently at 2.76 in the exchange market. There is a precedent in Semi - Final 2 back in 2018 (Public vote only) where all three entries finishing in Top-3 came from the first half. I will not tip it but I do have it in my book. 

Ireland has produced one of the best theatrical three minutes we have ever seen in Eurovision. They have gone all in and that was the proper way to do it. Bambie Thug is a great performer and this will be the talk of the town in the next few days. The Irish are ready to go crazy and I could see this one trading in single odds if they get a second half draw. Of course Ireland is not winning Eurovision, but in a public vote only Semi - Final they could finish in Top-3 (1.70 Bf exchange).

I do find the odds a bit short but I have taken a different bet with Ireland included. 

For those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers forecasts (1-2) for the Semi - Finals and the combination 1.Croatia - 2. Ireland is at 13!!! This could be a fun bet or a moderate bet, a low risk high rewards approach.

Ukraine is the first contender for the night and the market has not been impressed. The problem is that their staging is missing a story. There are beautiful shots that are not connected to each other and the two girls interact only in the last few seconds. Top-3 in the Semi is more or less secured but there is no value in my opinion. 

Poland is the weakest entry vocally in that first half and maybe the whole Semi- Final. The qualifying odds are very short but Poland has never had a problem being in Top-10 with the Public vote (only '21 missed the Top-10) and even though I am tempted, I will leave Luna alone.

I would not be surprised whatever the outcome is tonight.

Croatia was trading at 5+ just a week ago and currently is trading at 2.32! I have been backing Croatia since late January so I am more than happy with my position on them. Winning the Semi - Final at 1.32 feels short but there is no chance someone else is winning tonight.

Baby Lasagna is improving every time he is on stage and the staging has improved a lot since Dora two and a half months ago. 

The crowds' reactions yesterday and the singalong in the second part along with the closing seconds are the only winning vibes we have seen so far this year.

Iceland coming after Croatia I reckon is EBU's payback time for what happened in Iceland's national final and a subtle way to send a message for the future. The weakest entry of all this year by far.

Slovenia has gradually lost ground and the staging has not added anything to help their cause. Raiven is vocally excellent but these are three very long minutes in a very underwhelming part of the Semi - Final and only Serbia and Croatia there to secure them 12-18 points. They will need more than 45-50 to feel safe and I struggle to see where they will come from. My average lay on them is at 1.94 but there is no value there currently.

Finland it is what it is and I do believe that it will qualify but I don't think it will do particularly well. It is fun but does not really offer a reason for someone to vote for it. If we had the 50/50 system I would be tempted to oppose it but there is no reason to do it now.

Moldova is the biggest riser since yesterday and not only is back in the qualification race but I do believe that it will qualify, favored by the four entries coming before it. It gives them credibility, the staging is simple but effective and Natalia's vocal abilities do stand out. It is trading at 5 to qualify in various betting companies and this is the best value odds someone can find tonight. 

The fair odds should have been at 2.50-2.75 so I am happy to lose that bet everyday. This will be the second tip for tonight.

Azerbaijan does not have a bad song but there is no reason for someone to vote for them. Last place in the Semi - Final could happen.

Australia has a simple but beautiful staging but I am not sure the casual viewers will vote an aboriginal song and how relevant could that be for Eurovision. The last thirty seconds are very shaky as well. Australia is a borderline by definition and could go both ways. I am not tipping something here but I do think that Moldova will be the one to claim that last ticket.

Portugal has the best minimalistic staging of all entries and it does suit their entry 100%. A few weeks ago were trading at odds on and currently their qualifications odds are at 1.28. A bit short for my taste.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers  a Head to head versus Slovenia at 1.66. This could be used to maximize the qualification value.

Luxembourg will be closing the Semi - Final and there are multiple mentions during the show about their return after 31 years. Sailing to the Final.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers the Top-5 in Semi - Final at 2.35 and there is definitely value there.

My classification for tonight is the following

1. Croatia 140-160 pts

2. Ireland 110-130 pts

3. Ukraine 100-120 pts

4. Lithuania 90-110

5. Luxembourg 70-90

6. Finland 60-80

7. Cyprus 55-75

8. Poland 50-70

9. Portugal 50-65

10. Moldova 45-65

11. Serbia 35-55

12. Australia 30-50

13. Slovenia 25-45

14. Azerbaijan 15-35

15. Iceland 0-10

I do think that the first nine entries are more or less certain qualifiers and the tenth spot will be a battle between Moldova, Serbia and Australia. 

And now the fun time!! My tips for the Semi - Final. You can read my betting resolution for 2024 here.

I have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

I have decided to minimize my bets and aim for accuracy this year so there will be only two tips for Semi - Final 1

Serbia lay @ 1.67 (NQ 2.48) x 75 units

Moldova to qualify @ 5.00 (multiple companies) x 25 units

Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be active in X after the Semi - Final to comment on the results.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Luxembourg

 

First Thoughts:

This is the first time I am writing a review about Luxembourg and I am so excited about their return in the Contest.

They have organized a great national final in terms of production which was not bad for a first attempt.

Tali won with 'Fighter' and she will be fighting for a spot in the Grand Final after thirty one years.

EBU and producers played their part giving Luxembourg the pimp slot in the Semi - Final to boost its chances.

When I first heard the song was not exactly impressed but I did find it competitive enough to qualify and get a decent amount of points to finish somewhere in the middle.

After hearing the revamp Ι am not so sure about that any more. In theory Luxembourg is a certain qualifier, but I do find its current odds very short and would be tempted to bet against them if Portugal and Australia up their game in rehearsals.

I get the feeling that the song does not suit Tali and that might cost them some points. 

My other major concern is that Luxembourg is missing all of its allies and does not have any secured points with the exception of those coming from Germany.

I am aware that the second half of this Semi is very low quality and the pimp slot is there to boost its chances but Luxembourg is gradually slipping to my borderline list.

If in the Final, anything better than a Bottom-5 result would be a great start for Luxembourg to build on it for the future.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%-0.1%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 15-30 - Total: 40-105

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Luxembourg making it to the Final, get an early draw somewhere between #3-#6 and finish 20th which would be fair for them.

Could they become the first pimp slot entry after 2017 (Latvia) that fails to qualify? Probably not but not impossible.

You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Soundcloud

Breaking the Winner's Code...

 

We are less than a month away from the rehearsals and it is time to have a look at the Winner's market and the countries that will be contending.

This year appears to be very open and the things have been very tight near the top with countries switching places between first and fifth.

Before I start mentioning the countries that are in my contenders list I will try to give a short definition of what I do consider a contender.

Contender is an entry that does stand out of the crowd, has a USP and it does offer a moment during the three minutes. That moment could be visual, sentimental, musical perfection, anything that will call the viewer/juror to action. 

This is the first half of my definition and the second half is more boring and it is about math. 

A contender is an entry that could potentially reach 500 points which is the threshold that, most of the times, secures the win. The easiest way to reach to that threshold is to score approximately 300 points with the Televote and 200 points with the juries, unless you are Sweden or Australia that is always the other way around.

 There are some minimums to be achieved for an entry to be in contention.

For juries, the bare minimum is the 150 points threshold, that usually corresponds to 4th-6th place and that means that you need to have a super strong televote magnet that could score more than 350 points there and even that sometimes might not be enough (call me Kaarija).

The bare minimum for the televote is 200 points, again assuming that your entry will score 300+ jury points.

Taking in consideration the 2014-2023 split results that are in the producers' era as well, we have had two entries that finished 4th with the Juries and won (Italy '21, Ukraine '22) and also two more winners that finished 3rd (Israel '18, Netherlands '19).

On the other hand, there is only one country that finished 3rd in the televote and won and that is Sweden '15. Needless to say there is no winner finishing fourth or lower with that constituency.

The average jury ranking for the winners in the '14-'23 span is 2.2 and the average televote ranking is 1.6.

The more we are advancing to the season, the more I think that the contenders will reach or will be very close to those thresholds and even though I was tempted to lower them a bit to go down to 450 points, I stick with my guns to the 500 points for the definition of a contender.

I will share with you some thoughts and the pros and cons for each entry. Feel free to agree or disagree with me.

I have a list with three tiers. Tier 1 includes the two entries that I feel that they have a winning path depending on their performance alone and that path is open with both constituencies.

My Tier 2 includes two more entries that they could find a way to carve a winning path, but they could either fall short with one of the constituencies or simply do not have enough to beat both entries of Tier 1. These are my default winners.

My Tier 3 includes a pool of countries that need to land the perfect storm and do great really great with their constituency and achieve a respectable score with the other. Their chances are theoretical and they need to stage something unique and get some hype during rehearsals.

Grab your popcorn and have fun!

Currently trading @3.60 in betfair, is crashing big time since last Saturday when we got the chance to hear Nemo live for the first time and that was a show!

It was clear since its release day that if Nemo can pull the live and the staging is there, Switzerland is the one to beat and the market is heading to that direction. Fredrik Benke Rydman, the man behind 'Heroes' and 'Cha Cha Cha' among others does feel like a great choice and guarantees an amazing staging.

Switzerland is actively trying to win since '19 ( 4th-'19, 3rd-'21) and history implies that when you try, eventually you also win.

Having not won since '88 makes them an ideal winner as well, with the mentions to Celine Dion etc.

There is an interesting statistical fact as well. In the '10s, we have had five winners being internally selected and five winners coming from national finals. The last internally selected winner was back in '19. Maybe Switzerland is the first one in the 20's.

Pros:

- The potential Jury winner, have established themselves in that category the last few years

- Could find the 175-225 televote points that needs to secure the win

- Nemo's charisma and staging presence

- Switzerland's recent streak of good results with both constituencies

Cons:

- There is a chance that their televote score could struggle if in first half and/or appearing before the big televote magnets (Croatia, Netherlands).

Winning Path:

Jury: 250-300 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-225 pts - 3rd/6th

Croatia is the runner up on the Winner's market currently @5.80, losing the reigns after a month leading the odds. 

Baby Lasagna feels like the televote winner and although I do think that he will not reach 'Cha Cha Cha' numbers, he could be very close to the 300 points threshold. 

The tough part for Croatia are the Juries. I do think that they stand a chance to be the quirky/strange/extravagant entry that could land a Top-5 result with them, like Finland did last year and Ukraine with some aid of course back in '22.

I do think that Juries stretch their limits on accepting/recognizing this type of entries year after year and Croatia could be on the perfect spot to materialize this acceptance into a Eurovision win. 

We have not had a new winner for a long time as well (Portugal '17 the last one) and that could mean something for a region that needs a spark to join the contest again.

Pros:

- Potential televote winner

- Could/Will be the talk of the town during the week of the contest

- Could be the de facto representative of Balkans/Eastern Europe

- They can get a good sum of jury points (50-75) from neighbors and friends and they just need the random 2s-6s here and there to reach the magic number (175).

- There are some countries that could be higher with Juries but will be irrelevant for the win race and could give Croatia some breathing space finishing even 6th-8th there ( Belgium, France, Sweden, Lithuania, UK)

Cons:

- It is all about the Juries. I might be overestimating his chances.

- I don't think he will have the same staging as in Dora, but if that is the case then it might be a bit chaotic

Winning Path:

Jury: 150-200 - 4th/6th

Televote: 250-300+ - 1st/2nd

This is my Tier 1 and I do think think that it will be a very close race between the two of them. I give Switzerland the upper hand on a 50/50 call just because they could score slightly better with televote than Croatia could potentially score with juries. 

There is the possibility to have a third contender but we need to wait for the rehearsals and the Semi- Finals to find that out.

Now moving to my Tier 2, where I have placed my two default winners.

This is the one entry that it seems I cannot rate the same way as the majority of the market does.

In theory, Italy feels like a Top-3 entry with both constituencies, but I do have the feeling that it could underperform at least with one of the two and that is televote.

There is a list of countries that could score better than Italy in that section, apart from the obvious two (Croatia, Netherlands) that could extend to five or six more ( Ukraine, Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Lithuania). 

It is not the most probable scenario but Italy could finish 7th-8th in televote and that is not enough for the win.

My other objection is that Italy is a recent winner, Rai gives the impression that they are not particularly interested in winning and hosting again and EBU I am sure that would not like the contest back to Italy any time soon. 

Back in '22 and even the last year, Italy was giving me the impression that they were sabotaging their own entry to make sure that they will not win.

Pros:

- Angelina's charisma and staging presence

- Italy's proven record with both constituencies recently

- The entry that in theory is in Top-3 with both constituencies

Cons:

- Angelina will need a moment on stage now that the orchestra will not be there to interact with them

- Angelina lost the televote in San Remo hands down by Geolier and in Eurovision she will meet tougher competition with more 'Geoliers' present. She needs to prove herself with the juries as well and prove that she did not win San Remo because the jurors backed her to take the win away from Geolier.

- EBU will prioritize France for sure, UK maybe as well, above Italy. Giving Italy the 2nd half draw and France the 1st half in the Semi - Final is an indication of a reversed position in the Final if in same half. Italy will be the first one to 'sacrifice' for another strong/potential contender.

Winning path:

Jury: 225-275 - 1st/3rd

Televote: 200-250 - 2nd/4th

Four months ago, Ukraine was leading the market and now is a steady fourth, drifting a bit day by day and heading to the double digits for the first time this year.

In theory, Ukraine has 200+ televote points in the bag thanks to the diaspora and friends that could secure a Top-3 there.

The question is how high could they end up with the juries. This is the type of entry where 7th-11th feels its natural habitat.

Will the juries award it more or will they try to secure that a third Ukrainian win is not happening in eight years?

Another recent winner, that was also benefited by the EBU's stance back in '22 and it feels that its hype is fading away. 

It has a very solid 300 points threshold that could be enough for them to finish 4th-6th but I fail to see them going higher than that.

Let's not forget that Ukraine was the runner up in the odds for most part of the season and went back to double digits by the time of the Semi - Finals just because it was the big unknown or the elephant in the room, with a slightly less effective entry to be fair though. 

Pros:

- Diaspora and friends that secure easily 200 televote points

- Could be Top-4/5 with Juries

Cons:

- Juries could/would mark it down if they feel it is a contender

- Is not a priority for producers/EBU to get a good running order

- The momentum is fading away

Winning Path:

Jury: 175-225 - 3rd/5th

Televote: 200-300 - 1st/3rd

Tier 3 has a pool of entries that need an extraordinary result with one of the two constituencies and a great result with the other one in order to create a path for the win. 

Their chances are only theoretical and they all need a major step up in rehearsals to improve their chances for the win.

There is no reason for the moment to get in much detail and I will just mention their winning paths and the major cons and pros just to have the picture.

Slimane needs to win the Juries by a landslide, scoring 325+ and then be Top-4/6 with televote to secure 150-175 points there.

I could see a path for the Juries, but achieving the televote score as well could prove a tough ask. My current projection gives them 50-75 televote points.

France has 200-250 points as a starting point and needs to build from there but is the first one on my list that could very well end up outside the Top-10 if certain things go wrong.

Netherlands is meant to finish Top-2/3 with the televote and there is a chance they could even win there, but I do doubt that they can get more than 300 points there.

That means they need 175+ jury points and this is where things get complicated. Apart from the genre that is not juror's cup of tea and I am open minded about getting past that obstacle, Netherlands has really tough competition in that region alone to get those jury points. 

There are Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Germany and France that will be competing for the 6s-12s in the same region and Netherlands will lose a great deal of points because of that reason. 

Could see them cracking Top-3 but going higher than that needs the perfect storm.

The 2024 elephant in the room. Israel has a very very narrow path where its diaspora backs them heavily to secure a great televote score of 250+ televote points and the juries award their entry that genre-wise is considered a jury bait and secure circa 200 points with them. 

I could see the televote part happening and a part of the jury love happening, but I am sure that certain jurors will mark this one down and make sure that an Israeli win is not happening this year. 

And this is where my list with contenders, default winners and wannabe contenders ends. 

 My feel is that we are heading for a two horse race, with a pack of countries following from a distance.

I am still open for a third country joining the favorites but we need to wait for the rehearsals.

I am happy to inform you that my Online Media Press Accreditation was approved and I will be covering the rehearsals and the shows online during that week.

You can hear my thoughts about the contenders in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 08

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Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section here and on X as well!

Super Saturday 2024 - Game On

 

We are finally entering the final and most important stage of the National Final's season. 

Four finals and three semi-finals will all take place this Saturday and eurofans will have a hard time choosing which show to watch.

I will take a closer look to the four finals and the Melfest Heat-1 and leave the Baltic semi-finals for a future post.

So let's start with Vidbir which is the first show tomorrow night. This is a one horse race in my opinion. The song that stood out from the first day is 'Teresa & Maria' that feels like the certain winner and the market agrees with its current price being 1.10.

This is the only entry from everything that we have heard so far that has a Top-5 potential and could finish even higher depending on the field. 

Ukraine has a clear advantage with the Televoting because of its diaspora and the on-going war and 'Teresa & Maria' does not give any reason for the Juries to punish it. This is the ideal entry for them to remind Europe that the war is not over.

'Palala' and 'Tsunamia' are the outsiders that will complete the podium. I am not very confident that we could have an upset win in Vidbir, but if it happens, it will be any of these two.

Moving to Norway and Melodi Grand Prix 2024. After three not that exciting, in terms of suspense, Heats it comes down to Gate vs KEiiNO vs Super Rob/Erika Norwich.

Gate became the favorite just after the end of Heat 2 and they remained there since today. KEiiNO were close but drifted a bit when the running order was revealed and we found out that they are opening the Final. 

Running order was the reason  that 'My AI' is third favorite being the entry that will close the Final at #9. Gate perform at #8.

There are three more entries that could possibly sneak in Top-3 or even be runner-ups. These are Gothminister at #3, Miia at #5 and Margaret Berger at #6.

My estimation is that 'Ulveham' is the one to win MGP 2024, signing the change of direction from NRK that had some very decent results recently based on the Televoting but struggled with the Juries. 

'Ulveham' is the only entry that could find a balance between the two constituencies and aim for a very good result.

'Damdiggida' misses the epic and pagan elements that lifted 'Spirit in the Sky' back in 2019, elements that 'Ulveham' does have. Opening the Final was another hint that NRK does prefer someone else and they have strong competition for the televotes.

'My AI' could get a part of those votes but it does not offer a strong enough package for the jurors as well.

'We Come Alive' has a better and funnier stage presence to sneak in Top-3. At prices over 25 it is worth a fun bet to win MGP (I have them @55 pre-Heats)

Gate to win @1.50 have no value being traded @2.75-3.50 two weeks ago.

MESC 2024 will give us the third song for the night. Not much to say or comment here. Matt Blxck with 'Banana' is the grand favorite to win @1.35 and whoever has not seen the video-clip is in for a treat.

I do have a feeling that Malta might choose a different direction than go bananas. There are a few options that do present some value and these are Ryan Hili with 'Karma' @5.00, Sarah Bonnici with 'Loop' @15.00 and Lisa Gauci with 'Breathe' @ 80. 

'Karma' is the best slow tempo entry in their Final and 'Loop' is the bop entry that is not a parody of a song. 

I am not sure that there is an entry that could save them and guarantee a qualification to the Final next May. But the three mentioned above might give them a fighting chance.

The tenth entry for Eurovision 2024 will come from Benidorm Fest late at night. What a week full of drama it was!

The winner of the Televote from Semi-Final 1 did not qualify because it finished last with Juries. Nebulossa won that Semi-Final just by  producing a great staging and party atmosphere with their song 'Zorra' and the two favorites, Angy Fernandez and Sofia Coll, finished second and third in a very non-competitive Semi-Final.

And then came Semi -Final 2 with the bar raised a bit. St Pedro with 'Dos Extranos' won easily and is getting ready to represent Spain next May.

Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez were second and third and I do have a feeling that this will be the Top-3 in the Final with a small twist between Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez.

It is safe to say that St Pedro will be the jury winner and Maria Pelae will finish second. Jorge Gonzalez struggled there finishing just sixth but I feel that the judges will not be that harsh with him today.

If he manages to somehow sneak in Top-3 he might have a chance if he wins both Televote and Demoscopic Jury. Jorge Gonzalez to win Benidorm @8.00 has still value being the most probable runner up (got him @40 pre-Xmas!)

Maria Pelae can be a solid second to fourth in all constituencies and secure a Top-3. I have backed her to finish Top-3 @2.66 at stoiximan (for those in Greece and Cyprus).

St Pedro current odds have no value. He was trading @1.85-2.50 just a few days ago. I do have the feeling that he will be the winner but the voting will be tense and the difference smaller than the odds suggest.

And now that the Finals are gone, a quick look at Melodifestivalen Heat-1. Having heard the one minute snippet of the six songs, it is safe to say that there is not a single entry that will stand out from this Heat.

All entries feel very generic which is the problem with Melfest the last few years. Smash Into Pieces feels like a certain qualifier performing at #6 but there is no value at their odds(1.03-1.08).

My suspicion is that the low bar could help one of the underdogs to secure the direct place at the Melfest Final and that entry is Lisa Ajax with 'Awful Liar'.

She performs at #5 which is a tell of how producers perceive the song and she could totally surpass Adam Woods that is the second favorite and opens the Heat.

Lisa Ajax to qualify @3.00 is a risk worth taking.

Good luck with your favorites tonight and let's hope that we will have a strong line up for Eurovision, hopefully with no bananas...

In the next few days the first episode of our new podcast 'Talk About Things' will be aired! Stay tunned...

The Swedish Way

 

Another Eurovision season is coming to its climax tonight.

For a second year in a row, we do have a heavy favourite to win and that is of course Loreen representing Sweden. 

They are both heading for some record breaks, Loreen becoming just the second artist with 2 wins and Sweden catching Ireland in the first place of total wins with 7.

Last year there was much speculation regarding if Ukraine would find the points to secure the win. 2023 is different and the reason why is the Swedish Way (I need to register that for a Trademark😂).

What is the Swedish Way? Since 2009 that we do have data available for the Split Results between Televote and Juries, we have had 9 Winners that won the Televote, 2 Winners that did not win neither the Televote nor the Juries (Ukraine '16 - Netherlands '19) and just 1 Winner that did not win the Televote but won the Juries. 

You guessed right! It was Sweden back in 2015 that won the Juries but finished 3rd in Televote behind Italy and Russia. There is a big chance we will have the same split tonight that could be more than enough for Sweden to secure the win. 

Sweden is the powerhouse with Juries, and this is its big weapon. Securing a score near the 300 points threshold will put the competition at sleep before everything starts. 

Sweden in the last few years had a systemic struggle getting the Televote points that it needed to contend for a win. It has not received more than 200 points since Mans' win in 2015 and that could be the only reason for concern for Loreen.

However, the metrics suggest that Sweden could easily reach the 250 points mark which could be more than enough even in the case that Sweden finishes third or fourth with the Public Vote. 

So, is there a way for Sweden to lose this one? In theory the minimum points that Sweden needs are 275 Jury points and 225 Televote points. In that case, it is game on.

And who could be the contenders? Odds suggest it is Finland which is destined to win the Televote. The problem is that Finland will marginally finish in Top-10 with Juries (I have 100-120 J points in my projection) so that means that they will need to achieve the second biggest Public Vote score ever! Russia '16 comes to mind when they won Televote with 361 points and finished 3rd failing to score more than 130 Jury points. 

I do have a feeling that Finland could finish lower than 2nd all the way to 4th. 

The entry that could have an actual chance is Israel. Performing in 2nd half, while Sweden, Spain, Finland and Italy are all packed in the 1st half gives an advantage with the other contenders (Norway, Ukraine) performing earlier. 

Unicorn could have a similar score to Fuego back in 2018. I do have it 4th in Juries and minimum 3rd with the Public Vote. I do have it down to marginally win the Televote boosted by the optimal running order. 

If they reach the 225 Jury points and Sweden underperforms with the Televote then there is a chance for a thriller.

And finally, we have Spain. Destined to finish Top-2 with Juries and a big mystery when it comes to Televote. If Paloma gets a similar score to France '21 near the 250 mark then it could pressure Sweden as well.

Here is my projection for the whole line up 

1. Sweden

Not my cup of tea but deserves the win, being the less vulnerable of all entries in an average quality year. The running order suggests that the producers tried everything to make it more exciting with 5th x 2 times being the best place #9 has achieved since 2013. 

Tipping Sweden to win at 1.53 obviously is not part of my betting philosophy. I have it red on the Winner's market, however I have taken covers with Combo and Forecast bets predicting a Swedish victory. 

Will be tempted to buy some when the first Jury results are in and Sweden might not be leading the board for a few countries. 

My favourite combo of all is Sweden 1st and Israel 2nd at 10.00 

Sweden-Israel Top-2 in any order at 6.00 great value as well

Sweden 1st - Israel 2nd - Finland 3rd at 12.00 is decent as well.

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 545-590 (Tv: 270-290 - Juries: 275-300)

2. Israel 

The biggest winner of the running order and metrics. Israel is a Top-4 lock and 95% Top-3, however I moved it to runner-up for a good reason. 

There has not been a year since 2013 (most probably earlier as well but have not checked the results) that a Top-2 entry has not been in the 2nd half. 

It would be absurd to have Sweden, Finland, and Spain all finishing in Top-3 and then Israel, Norway, Ukraine even Armenia to just finish in Top-10.

Israel is my biggest position in Winner's market waiting for the miracle to happen currently at 65.

Winning the Tele Vote at 50 is another market I am involved in plus the combos I have mentioned above with Sweden.

I have big volume bets in Top-3/4/5 since rehearsals started and this is my make it or break it country for the year. Israel finishing Top-3 will give a nice profit regardless of what happens elsewhere.

In fact, I find it difficult to understand why someone would choose Sweden to win at 1.54 instead of Israel Top-5 in 1.75.

Tv: 1st - Juries: 4th - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 495-520 (Tv: 275-295 - Juries: 210-225)

3. Spain

Spain's mystery around its Televote appeal is the main reason I find it difficult to rate Spain higher. This is the entry that could get some traction during the show but performing just before Sweden will create more problems than gains.

Spain to finish in Top-5 at 3.50 is a value bet.

Sweden - Spain Top-2 combo regardless of position at 12.00 is also in my book.

For those betting in Greece, stoiximan offers my Tricast 1st Sweden - 2nd Israel - 3rd Spain at 200...

Tv: 6th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points: 400-450 (Tv: 150-180 - Juries: 250-270)

4. Finland

The Televote winner favourite that will struggle big time with Juries. If he reaches the 175 points thresholds with them, he has a chance. 

The problem is that never before a left field entry finished that high. It is more likely for Finland to get 70 Jury points than 150...

I do have some combos with Finland being Top-3 as a cover and would be will willing to invest some money for the win, only in the case of them being near the thresholds mentioned above.

Tv: 2nd- Juries: 11th- Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 370-410 (Tv: 270-290 - Juries: 100-120)

5. Norway

I am troubled with this one. Running order, quality and metrics suggest a Top-5 finish, the same with my projection as well. 

My main problem is that I struggle to see 3 Nordic countries being Top-5, especially when Estonia and Lithuania are also in the Final. 

All these countries get their high scores from the same pond and will be impossible for all of them to score equally high in non-allies' territories. Their votes somehow will split. 

There is no great value in Norway's Top-5 but it is acceptable as cover in certain combos.

Tv: 4th- Juries: 7th- Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 350-395 (Tv: 200-225 - Juries: 150-170)

6. Italy

Marco is back to improve his 7th place back in 2013 and he is en route to do it. If Top-3 with Juries as projected could have hopes for a Top-5 finish. If not, a secured Top-10 spot. 

Italy has become a powerhouse and even when going in fumes is still able to deliver.

Top Big Five at 2.86 is an option if you think that Spain will flop.

Tv: 10th- Juries: 3rd- Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 325-365 (Tv: 95-115 - Juries: 230-250)

7. France

All the countries that I have mentioned so far have the potential to do better in some scenarios. With France we have the opposite. 7th is the best-case scenario for them and should be incredibly happy with it. 

Another hit and miss from France and the overreactions to the French songs have become part of the rehearsals' routine. 

It can easily pull a Mercy '18 and finish 15th and that will not surprise anyone. 

The only value bet here is the Top-10 lay circa 1.50.

Tv: 8th- Juries: 5th- Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 280-320 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 180-200)

8.  Armenia

It remains to be seen if Armenia's running order in Semi - Final has impacted their chances for a Top-10 result. I reckon that Armenia was Top-3 and probably won the Semi - Final from #2 and that by itself will be impressive. 

It is a secured Top-10 entry that has some chances for a Top-5 result, but the running order again does not help. 

For those willing to risk Top-5 is at 7.60 in betfair.

Tv: 9th- Juries: 6th- Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 260-300 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 180-200)

9. Ukraine

When people talk about the favourites this year, somehow Ukraine is always there but no one really talks about it. We do know the reasons and it is safe to assume that Ukraine could land anywhere from 100 to 500 points, and no one will say anything. I decided it to be somewhere in the middle just to keep my options open.

Not tipping anything here but if you see Ukraine getting more 125 Jury votes, consider it a lock Top-5.

Tv: 5th- Juries: 14th- Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 255-305 (Tv: 180-210 - Juries: 75-95)

10. Czechia

There are 5 entries that could get the 10th spot, but I have decided to go with the one that has improved throughout the season. Running order is not great but the staging and some mid-table scores with both constituencies could be enough for them to make it.

Top-10 at 2.76 has a risk but is one of the best outsider odds.

 Top-15 at 1.53 as well is great value!

Tv: 11th- Juries: 13th- Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 170-210 (Tv: 90-110 - Juries: 80-100)

11. Austria

This will be marginal as I mentioned before so 2.80 for Top-10 is a value. My problem is that Austria is opening the Final and the last Top-10 result was back in 2016. Not touching this one.

Tv: 13th- Juries: 12th- Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 165-205 (Tv: 75-95 - Juries: 90-110)

12. Belgium

Being sandwiched between Australia and Armenia is not the best place to be if you want to have Top-10 hopes. 

The one with the shortest price at 2.40 from the 5. 

No bet for me.

Tv: 14th- Juries: 10th- Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 165-205 (Tv: 65-85 - Juries: 100-120)

13.  Croatia

Copy-paste any of the above texts. Pick the one that you like from these 5 and place a Top-10 bet on it. This one has the best running order of all though performing #25 but Juries will be harsh on them.

Tv: 7th- Juries: 21st- Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 130-150 - Juries: 30-50)

14.  Switzerland

Switzerland will be for the Juries what Croatia is for the Televote. The problem is the running order at #3. The good news is that #3 in 9 producers' Contests has achieved two 9th places and three 11th. 

Top-10 at 5.80 is the definition of a value bet and I will tip it for tonight.

Tv: 20th- Juries: 8th- Total: 14th

Estimated Points: 155-190 (Tv: 25-40 - Juries: 130-150)

15. Estonia

Top-15 at 3.00 is an option but everything is very marginal from this point on. Every country could literally land anywhere.

Tv: 21st- Juries: 9th- Total: 15th

Estimated Points: 135-170 (Tv: 25-40 - Juries: 110-130)

16. Slovenia

It does have potential for a stronger finish but is sandwiched between other strong Televote entries and might be forgotten.

Tv: 12th- Juries: 19th- Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 130-170 (Tv: 80-100 - Juries: 50-70)

17. Australia

If finished that low, Australia could potentially be the weaker Semi - Final winner that we have ever had.

Tv: 18th- Juries: 15th- Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 110-150 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 70-90)

18. Lithuania

Tv: 15th- Juries: 18th- Total: 18th

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 50-70 - Juries: 50-70)

19. Serbia

Tv: 19th- Juries: 20th- Total: 19th

Estimated Points: 75-115 (Tv: 35-55 - Juries: 40-60)

20. Portugal

Juries need to come to the rescue for this one. In conversation for the last place but I do find the odds very short and funny enough #2 might be the worst place to be in the Final line-up but has not produced a single last place in 9 Contests!

Tv: 24th- Juries: 16th- Total: 20th

Estimated Points: 80-110 (Tv: 20-30- Juries: 60-80)

21. Cyprus

Finishing last at 120 in betfair and 67 in bet365 makes Cyprus' last place the ideal fun bet while watching the show.

Tv: 22nd- Juries: 17th- Total: 21st

Estimated Points: 70-105 (Tv: 20-35- Juries: 50-70)

22. Moldova

Tv: 16th- Juries: 25th- Total: 22nd

Estimated Points: 60-95 (Tv: 50-70- Juries: 10-25)

23. Poland

Tv: 17th- Juries: 26th- Total: 23rd

Estimated Points: 55-85 (Tv: 45-65- Juries: 10-20)

24. Albania

Tv: 23rd- Juries: 22nd- Total: 24th

Estimated Points: 45-80 (Tv: 20-35- Juries: 25-45)

25. Germany

Finishing last at 10.50 in betfair is of course a nice fun bet to add to your collection though the competition will be tough this year...

Tv: 25th- Juries: 23rd- Total: 25th

Estimated Points: 30-60 (Tv: 10-20- Juries: 20-40)

26. United Kingdom

Disclaimer: The Jury points projected are not for the vocal capabilities of Mae but more because of the secured 12 points from Ukraine and some other delegations that were happy with the Contest organisation.

The PImp Slot has in fact produced a last place in the last 9 contest and it was the other British Isle, Ireland, so 4.80 to finish last is not a bad call if someone rellies on the running order to bet.

Tv: 26th- Juries: 24th- Total: 26th

Estimated Points: 25-55 (Tv: 10-20- Juries: 15-35)

And that concludes my ranking projections and thoughts about the bets tonight.

Now it is time for some betting tips!

I do have the 800 units that were available for the Final plus the settled bet for Netherlands from Semi - Final 1 for 85.6 units so my Total for the Final is 885.6 units.

Israel's Top-3 for SF-1 is still open and most probably won. Moldova was a long chance and a fun bet.

Greece was disappointing but I knew where I was getting. Armenia's Win is still a possibility that could bring back a profit.

I have had 19/20 correct Qualification calls with Greece being the only one missing out, by the 11th in my projection Estonia. So I was that close to get a perfect 20/20 that I could brag about for the next 20 years.😂

 

I have decided this year to place fewer bets and this is what I will try to do this year as well. 

Final

Israel to Finish in Top-3 @ 3.15 (betfair exchange) x 600 units

Sweden to Win and Israel come Second @ 10.00 (betfair sportsbook) x 100 units

Israel to Win @ 60 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Switzerland to Finish Top-10 @ 5.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Spain to Finish Top-5 @ 3.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

and now the fun bets

Cyprus to Finish last @ 130 (betfair exchange) x 15.6 units

Israel to Win the Tele Vote @ 29 (betfair exchange) x 20 units

Available Units: 0

Open Bets: 885.6 Units

Settled Bets: 0 units

Good luck with all your bets tonight! I will post some thoughts for the Contest and my betting strategy for this year by the end of this.

You can also find my updated betting book here.

May (not Muller) the best one win!