This has been the wildest week in Eurovision history for sure.
The last 48hrs have been the absolute madness and there hasn't been a single hour without a new drama unfolding.
Everything started in Thursday night, just after the finish of Semi - Final 2 and the accidental release of the 'partial'? Italian televote where Israel was land sliding the win.
There was a snowball effect with Israel's price crashing from mid 40s to 4s-5s making Israel the second favorite to win after Croatia.
And then there was another drama unfolding yesterday with the Dutch representative Joost allegedly attacking an EBU employee and just a few hours ago it was decided that Netherlands will not be participating in the Eurovision Grand Final reducing the lineup to twenty five entries.
Netherlands will be able to vote though, like Serbia and Montenegro did back in 2006.
In between them, there was the decision for the Running Order of the Final and I do reckon we have witnessed an intervention from EBU to make sure that two things will not be happening tonight:
1. Israel doesn't win and
2. Ukraine does not win either.
Israel got the Malta '21 treatment given #6 and Ukraine got the death slot #2, something that has never happened to a contender in the past. Netherlands was also sacrificed at #5 to reduce the Israeli public somehow but Joost had other plans. The message is we sacrifice the recent winners and give the contenders that have not won for a while the chance to win.
The biggest winners were Croatia #22 now, Switzerland #20 and France #24. Croatia got the most favorable slot just a few spots before the closing which is the optimal place to be and Switzerland is coming first after a not so strong part of the Final. France has the latest draw of all to boost a bit its public vote score where it needs help.
Baby Lasagna had the underdog label for the whole season but he was transformed in stage to a powerful character that can carry the stadium and the viewers with him. The public loves him and I reckon that the televoters and the pure fans of the Contest will unite under his umbrella to save the Contest from the unthinkable that would have been an Israeli win this year.
EBU is trying everything in its power to help him win as well and a Croatian win could signal the return of some Balkan countries back in the Contest, now that the tank is getting empty.
Nemo has been remarkable on stage delivering a faultless performance. He is the most probable Jury winner from last night and the audience poll in the stadium suggested that his public vote appeal is bigger than the one the market suggested, something that I have highlighted in my contender's analysis some time ago.
It all comes down to how the public will react to the possibility of an Israeli win and if they will split the votes between Croatia and Switzerland or will sacrifice some votes to support Croatia. Switzerland is not chanceless yet and could be close to Croatia.
Netherlands' absence might send some regional public votes his way though.
Israel was always the x factor and it is very surprising that the market was caught off guard with the fear of missing out spreading fast since Thursday night.
There was always the speculation that the Israeli public vote would be really high because of the diaspora and pro-Israeli supporters and they have played the 'victim' card really nice. We still do not know the extent of this, but there will be jurors that will blank this one to make sure that they will not win.
These are the three contenders for tonight in my opinion and it could a close race. There was this narrative floating around the whole season that we will end up with a winner in the 400-450 points threshold.
Many analyses out there were suggesting that this is the most possible outcome, however with everything that has happened in the last few days, I do expect the opposite.
My prediction is that we will have a Top-2 in the 500+ close to 600 points area with a third entry way over the 400 points with the rest of the pack following from distance.
Here is my breakdown for tonight and some thoughts about how the night could evolve
1. Croatia
Estimated Points: 545-600 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 225-250)
There was the notion that Croatia would struggle with Juries but Baby Lasagna was more than strong last week and a Top-3 there is more than possible, especially now that some Juries will back him to prevent Israel winning.
Anything above 175 points could be enough.
Metrics to watch out: Croatia needs a 75-100 points headstart from Israel and be less than 100 points behind Switzerland to secure the win.
2. Switzerland
Estimated Points: 520 - 560 (Tv: 240-260 - Juries: 280-300)
Metrics to watch out: It all depends on how high Switzerland can go with the Public vote and how big will be their lead with the Juries. Could be the deciding factor for Israel's loss if the Jury score reaches the 300 points threshold leaving a breathing space to them and /or Croatia.
If they can reach the 325 threshold, they can actually win.
Nemo does deserve to finish up there and Top-3 is a lock in my opinion.
3. Israel
Estimated Points: 390 - 440 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 60-80)
Performing at #5 suggests that their potential public vote lead is controllable. I do think that their televote estimation is the worst case scenario and I do think that the Juries will try to balance it.
If they end up with the win, EBU will be left with a very damaged product for the '25 edition and Pandora's box will be open.
Metrics to watch out: 100-125 jury points and people will start sweating, 150+ and Israel should be considered the winner. Assuming that their Jury result will be low, we will know their televote score quite early.
4. France
Estimated Points: 320 - 375 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 220-250)
Metrics to watch out: Slimane relies on his jury score to secure a Top-4/5 result and I do think he will be there in the end.
5. Ukraine
Estimated Points: 310 - 360 (Tv: 190-220 - Juries: 120-140)
Ukraine has been the major victim of the running order but getting a third political win in the last eight years would not be fair for the other participants.
Could have been a Top-3 contender if later in the draw, and there is a minor chance this still happens if the diaspora backs them. Top-5 should be considered a safe bet.
Metrics to watch out: This will be a case study for the power of the Ukrainian diaspora and how strong that diaspora is in terms of affecting the public vote results.
6. Italy
Estimated Points: 250-300 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 150-175)
Italy got a running order in the middle, far away from the other contenders but could also be the entry that will suffer the most from the polarized voting tonight.
Italy could potentially sneak in Top-5 but I reckon it is more probable to be a few places lower than higher from where I currently have them.
7. Ireland
Estimated Points: 210-250 (Tv: 170-190 - Juries: 40-60)
8. Greece
Estimated Points: 190-235 (Tv: 110-135 - Juries: 80-100)
9. Portugal
Estimated Points: 165-210 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 125-150)
10. Lithuania
Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 60-80)
11. Sweden
Estimated Points: 130-175 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 100-125)
12. Latvia
Estimated Points: 120-165 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 100-125)
13. UK
Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 80-100)
14. Serbia
Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 70-90)
15. Georgia
Estimated Points: 85-125 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 25-45)
16. Armenia
Estimated Points: 60-100 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 20-40)
17. Estonia
Estimated Points: 55-90 (Tv: 50-75 - Juries: 5-15)
18. Norway
Estimated Points: 40-80 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 20-40)
19. Spain
Estimated Points: 35-75 (Tv: 15-35 - Juries: 20-40)
20. Cyprus
Estimated Points: 45-70 (Tv: 20-30 - Juries: 25-40)
21. Luxembourg
Estimated Points: 30-70 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 20-40)
22. Germany
Estimated Points: 30-65 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 25-45)
23. Slovenia
Estimated Points: 25-60 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 20-40)
24. Finland
Estimated Points: 10-40 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 0-10)
25. Austria
Estimated Points: 5-25 (Tv: 5-15 - Juries: 0-10)
Before getting to my betting tips for tonight a few words about my personal book this season.
Croatia or Switzerland winning the Contest will be enough to have my most profitable Eurovision season ever, backing them both from the early days of their releases.
I have a position on Israel just to break even in case they win, having already cashed out the biggest part of my position there.
I have neither backed or laid Italy and Ukraine throughout the season and had a small amount on Netherlands being very happy with that strategy coming with a small amount of dead money the night of the Final.
I have also backed Croatia in the Top-3/4 market earlier this month and last month in longer odds and have also France in Top-4/5 markets.
Portugal, Greece and Lithuania are my calls for the Top-10 market and have some positions in the Top-15 on Latvia, Georgia, Portugal and UK, all the 2.50-4.50 area.
For the last place contention I have Austria and Luxembourg as my main contenders again at double digit odds.
And now the time you were waiting for...The tips for tonight. My Semi - Final bets have been subpar this year, chasing some values there that did not turn into profit. My only remorse is that I should have had Belgium NQ there as well, but I did mention that it was on my book and also tweeted during the show so I do hope that some of you followed that as well.
Having 0 units returned from the Semi - Finals I have 800 units available for the Final.
I am not tipping Croatia, currently at 1.96 just because I think there is no real value there at the moment, but I do think this is our Winner tonight and I wish you have backed him earlier in the season.
In my betting resolution for this year, I have mentioned that I am aiming for the accuracy this year so I will keep my promise and just make three suggestions for tonight
Portugal To Finish in Top-15 @ 2.60 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units
Greece To Finish in Top-10 @ 1.83 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units
Top-Nordic Sweden @ 2.06 (Bf Exchange) x 150 units
and will add 50 units for my fun bets
Austria To Finish Last @ 19.50 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units
Portugal to Finish in Top-10 @ 7.60 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units
Good luck with your bets tonight. I do hope that will find my post useful for the long night that is ahead of us.
I wish I could have given you more insight and suggestions about bets but it has been crazy the last few days trying to catch up with all the dramas unfolding.
I will be active on X later tonight to comment on the results and of course, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of Talk About Things with Panos and Matt.
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