Denmark has taken a few steps back when it comes to its national final the last decade.
They do have one of the best produced finals which at the same time produces weak Eurovision finalists.
Saba was the best thing that they had this year and she managed to win DMGP thanks to her jury performance.
The problem is that the Juries will not be there in the Semi - Final and Denmark will have to dig deeper to find the 45-55 points that would secure them a spot in the Final.
'Sand' is a radio friendly entry that could struggle to stand out in a lineup with so many public vote oriented entries.
Saba is a very talented and competent performer and she is the main selling point of the song.
Qualification is not out of the question but the lack of allies in the Semi, along with the running order is making things complicated.
In order to secure a place in the Final she will need to leave behind her both Latvia and Belgium.
Currently I have Denmark as a borderline non qualifier on my list with something like 45% vs 55%.
If Saba makes it to the Final though, a mid table result is within reach expecting a Top-10 or near Top-10 result with the Juries and a few public vote points from neighbors and friends.
Televoting Potential: 6/10
Jury Potential: 8.5/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 7/10
Total: 35/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001%
Best case scenario:
Mid-table result (13th-18th)
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 30-60
F: J: 30-75 - PV: 10-30 - Tot: 40-105
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Denmark finishing 11th-12th in the Semi - Final being single digit short from the qualification threshold.
Happy to reconsider their fate next week when we will have more about their staging.
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