Semi-Final 2: The Bloodbath Semi
Semi-Final 1 is over and the time has come for the Bloodbath Semi where fourteen countries (not you Azerbaijan!) have a chance, smaller or bigger, to qualify.
The jury-oriented mix will make things harder for weaker jury entries like Switzerland, Latvia and Luxembourg, while potentially boosting countries with strong televote magnetism that will find more space to breathe in the public vote scoreboard — Cyprus, Armenia and Norway immediately come to mind.
I do believe things will be marginal from seventh to thirteenth place tonight and every single point will count.
Before starting the analysis, I wanted to point out a few observations after Semi-Final 1 and the Jury Show yesterday.
The return of juries to the Semi-Finals has made things significantly more interesting. It adds an extra layer of suspense and expands the qualification mix. Belgium’s and Lithuania’s results on Tuesday strongly suggest that the juries saved two countries in a heavily televote-oriented Semi. Maybe tonight is the moment where the televote returns the favour and saves one or two entries in this heavily jury-oriented Semi.
Another thing that stood out is that juries appear to have moved beyond simply rewarding strong vocals. They are increasingly embracing innovative, contemporary and fresher productions. Whether that is due to the younger jurors or juries finally catching up with Eurovision trends, it is something we need to consider when projecting points and estimating results.
The other major takeaway deserving recognition is the overall elevation in staging quality from Balkan and Eastern European delegations this year.
Croatia, Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, Armenia, Serbia and of course Greece have all delivered high-level productions that genuinely elevate the quality of their entries.
Has the time finally come for a Grand Final Jury Top-10 that is not dominated by Western and Nordic entries?
Some food for thought.
1. Australia
Jury: 140-160
Televote: 110-130
Total: 250-290
Star quality makes the difference and Australia will win the jury vote tonight — and potentially next Saturday as well.
The staging ticks every jury winner box imaginable and Delta is elevating (no pun intended) “Eclipse” with her vocal ability, charisma and complete command of the stage.
The public vote has almost always been there for Australia in the Semi-Finals, even during years where they struggled in the Grand Final.
With the exception of 2021, where they finished 14th with the juries, Australia has finished:
- 1st once
- 2nd twice
- 3rd twice
with the juries in Semi-Finals.
They also own three televote podium finishes in the Semis:
- 1st in 2023
- 2nd in 2016 and 2019
With those historical trends and this package, Australia to win the Semi-Final @3.1 looks more than fair — if not outright value.
2. Ukraine
Jury: 80-100
Televote: 125-145
Total: 205-245
The other powerhouse of the Semi.
Another elevated staging.
Ukraine — unsurprisingly — has delivered a presentation that is minimalistic but perfectly tailored to the purpose of the song.
Leleka delivered arguably her strongest vocal on the Jury Show when it mattered most and we already know the televote support will be there tonight.
If jurors do not consciously downgrade Ukraine due to the lack of “stakes” in a Semi-Final environment, then there is no reason why they cannot win tonight.
Ukraine are heading towards what could be a fifth televote win in a Semi-Final and they also have three jury third places from four previous Semis.
Ukraine to win Semi-Final 2 @6.2 is a value bet.
3. Bulgaria
Jury: 100-115
Televote: 110-125
Total: 210-240
Bulgaria are back and their staging is magnificent.
Dara is a superstar full of energy and charisma. The staging itself is a masterclass in how to elevate an entry while balancing credibility and entertainment.
Both the audience poll and press poll yesterday had Bulgaria leading the Semi and they are emerging as the first genuine dark horse of the season.
Their Semi Top-3 odds have crashed and are now trading around @1.80-2.00.
Fair price.
But the value is probably gone.
4. Denmark
Jury: 120-130
Televote: 80-100
Total: 200-230
Soren was not at his best vocally last night.
The staging concept is essentially a more refined version of the DMGP performance and the song itself remains authentic and jury-friendly.
However, this is a Semi packed with Eastern European countries and whatever that means in terms of neighbouring votes and regional support.
The juries will absolutely be there for Denmark.
I am still slightly dubious about the televote ceiling.
They should still perform strongly in a Semi-Final environment, but I suspect things could become much harder in the Grand Final once Finland and Israel enter the televote equation.
There is not much liquidity in the market right now, but Denmark lay for a Top-3 finish in the Semi is available around @1.33.
I have opposed Denmark in the Grand Final Top-5 market since early April.
5. Albania
Jury: 90-110
Televote: 60-75
Total: 150-185
I would have been even more bullish on Albania finishing Top-3 in this Semi if Italy, Greece and Montenegro had also been voting here.
I already hold a bet on Albania @6 — the same price they currently trade at.
The staging serves the song perfectly and the English subtitles help break the language barrier while carrying a universal emotional message.
Alis is an exceptionally gifted and theatrical performer.
Albania is another entry that feels like a grower and I expect it to gain momentum and discussion after tonight.
6. Czechia
Jury: 110-125
Televote: 30-45
Total: 140-170
Czechia are once again doing what they do best:
Producing a polished, jury-oriented entry.
Daniel is charismatic enough to connect with jurors and that should secure a strong jury score.
The real question is whether viewers will respond emotionally enough to reward it in the televote.
Unfortunately, there is not a huge amount of song there.
I was tempted to oppose qualification but I suspect the juries will carry Czechia safely into the Final.
No bet for me.
7. Romania
Jury: 35-50
Televote: 75-90
Total: 110-140
An interesting staging concept from Romania, although the song itself starts to drag after the first minute.
Alexandra Capitanescu had a rough Jury Show performance yesterday and that may encourage jurors to score Romania lower than initially expected.
Qualification should still not be an issue and the televote support will absolutely be there.
Still, I do think this entry is slightly overhyped.
8. Malta
Jury: 80-100
Televote: 20-35
Total: 100-135
We are now entering the real danger zone.
Malta once again has a polished and jury-friendly staging package that should impress professional jurors enough to secure qualification.
I may actually be generous with the projected televote score though.
If there truly is a shift towards juries rewarding more Eastern European entries, Malta could become vulnerable.
If Malta misses the jury Top-5 tonight, they might become the shock non-qualifier of the Semi.
For now, I still lean towards qualification.
9. Armenia
Jury: 30-40
Televote: 60-75
Total: 90-115
I joined the Armenian qualification bandwagon very early this season and I am still onboard despite the market disagreeing.
The presentation feels slick, modern and effective.
The choreography and dance routine should receive recognition from viewers and I expect Armenia’s televote score to land somewhere between 7th and 9th overall.
That could easily be enough.
There are also useful voting allies in this Semi:
- France
- Cyprus
- Bulgaria
- Ukraine
I also have a strong feeling Armenia could receive France’s jury 12 or 10 points and that may prove decisive.
This is my biggest bet tonight.
Armenia to Qualify @3.1 is value.
10. Norway
Jury: 35-50
Televote: 45-65
Total: 80-115
A charismatic performer.
A televote-friendly banger.
A pimp slot.
That is usually a very strong qualification combination.
I think Norway will finish somewhere around the lower Top-10 with both voting groups and qualify one way or another.
Last night’s audience poll had Norway fourth, just fifteen votes behind Denmark in third.
11. Luxembourg
Jury: 40-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 80-105
This is a very tricky one for me personally.
I randomly watched the Luxembourg national final and immediately felt there was something naturally catchy and warm about the entry.
Then it faded away a little.
But when I attended the London Eurovision Party, I had exactly the same instinctive reaction again.
Eva Marija has that relatable “girl next door” warmth and the staging and lyrical message could genuinely resonate with family viewers.
I currently have Luxembourg just outside my qualification list.
But they absolutely have a realistic chance.
I still have them in my betting book @3.6 simply because I had to trust my instinct.
Currently trading around @3.1.
The running order position also helps them stand out.
12. Cyprus
Jury: 15-30
Televote: 50-65
Total: 65-95
What a strange journey Cyprus have had this season.
Antigoni’s vocals were always going to be the key issue and last night was rough.
Could this become another Andromache-style result?
There are enough friendly countries in the Semi to help Cyprus, but when vocals become visibly problematic, even allies become more hesitant.
Cyprus will either survive or collapse entirely through the televote.
There are some encouraging signs from fans and audience reactions, but they probably need something around 80-85 televote points to truly feel safe.
That may prove difficult.
This feels like a pure coin toss.
And when one side of the coin nearly triples your money, that usually signals value.
Cyprus lay @1.58 (2.72 NQ) is value.
13. Switzerland
Jury: 50-60
Televote: 10-25
Total: 60-85
Switzerland may have become trapped in its own spider web — another no pun intended.
They have overthought the staging and ended up creating a visual distraction that works against the entry rather than elevating it.
Which is a shame, because Veronica Fusaro is vocally one of the strongest performers in the Semi-Final. Unfortunately, the staging constantly pulls attention away from the one thing that could genuinely carry Switzerland into the Final: her voice.
There is still a narrow qualification route if Switzerland sneaks into the jury Top-5, but I expect the televote score to flirt dangerously close with single digits.
And that will probably kill their chances.
14. Latvia
Jury: 50-60
Televote: 10-25
Total: 60-85
Every Eurovision season has one entry that feels like it should do well — maybe even very well — but once the live shows arrive, it simply disappears.
Latvia might be that song this year.
Their Eurojury result was one of the biggest red flags of the season. Finishing last with zero points is not something you can easily dismiss at this stage of the competition.
Atvara probably needs a miracle jury Top-5 result to reach the Final and Latvia realistically only has Denmark and Norway as reliable support systems tonight.
I would genuinely be happy if Latvia qualified because, in a fair world, they deserve to be there.
But I fear they may not even come close.
Surprisingly, their odds have not drifted enough yet to become a value betting opportunity.
15. Azerbaijan
Jury: 0-5
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-10
There is not much left to say here.
Reaching double digits might genuinely be the only realistic target for Azerbaijan tonight.
Betting Time
And now it is time for the traditional tips.
As always, I follow the standard format of:
- 100 units per Semi-Final
- 800 units reserved for the Grand Final
Semi-Final 1 did not go according to plan, although there are still 25 units on Greece to win Semi-Final 1 currently alive.
As always, my bets are value-driven rather than prediction-driven and these are my positions for tonight.
Tonight’s Bets
-
Ukraine to Win SF2 — 50 units @6.2
-
Cyprus Lay — 30 units @1.58 (2.72 NQ)
-
Armenia to Qualify — 20 units @3.30
Good luck with your bets tonight and keep the conversation going across social media.
