Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Australia

 

Milkshake Man - Go-Jo

Australia has taken a U-turn for their Eurovision '25 campaign trying to work something out for their Public vote shortcomings.

'Milkshake Man' had an impressive drop in odds when launched trading as low as high teens but then reality kicked in and drifted all the way to the '000s. 

The song is trying to balance between being a joke entry or a credible high energy fun song. It could go both ways and we have to wait for the staging to rate this one.

Australia does have a good connection with Juries and that might make their task a bit easier but I am not sure at what length the jurors will go with this one, having many similar entries of that genre. 

Being in the same Semi - Final with Malta and Finland might give Australia the boost they need if they stage their entry better. 

Qualifying to the Final is a certainty, belonging to the weakest part of both Semis. The Final is a different beast and there is a chance that they might get the 'No Rules' treatment if they miss to find the golden balance.

A mid-table result 13th-17th feels safe for the moment.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cannot judge this one until I see it on stage so I will stick to 13th-17th .

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 70-100

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 50-125 - Tot: 80-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Australia a Top-10 contender or No Rules 2.0?

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Australia

First Thoughts:

I have to admit that when I first listened to 'One Mikali' I did have the impression that this could be a Melfest entry that would finish 5th-7th to its Heat.

It took a few more listens and a very favorable draw at #16 to move this one to my qualifiers list.

A decent song with some retro/80s' elements blended with some traditional aboriginal sounds and Zaachariaha's unique voice and staging presence could be prove more than enough for the qualification.

The fact that we have not seen the song live so far might be the factor that Australia is still going under the radar in terms of qualification, baring in mind that there are a few friends and allies in the Semi - Final.

Australia does traditionally struggle with the Public Vote but that second half is so weak that they just need to overcome one of Slovenia and Portugal to qualify, considering that Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland are no hopers.

The staging is the key and Australia has proven time after time that they do know how to lift their entries and create some hype almost out of nothing. 

This is the main reason behind the producer's choice to place them that late in the Semi - Final.

Advancing to the Final is the focus for them, but after they get there, I do feel that they will get lost in the crowd and they are most probably heading for their worst result in a Grand Final so far.

Bottom-5 is where I currently have them,

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%- 0.1%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-5 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 45-75

Final: Js: 10-50 - TV: 10-25- Total: 20-75

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Will the producers be kind to them twice and give them a good running order to boost their chances for a good result?

I reckon no and Australia will fall somewhere between 18th and 24th unless they have something very special to present us in a few weeks.

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Australia

 

First Thoughts:

Voyager have finally made it to Eurovision! They have tried for some time and now it's their moment.

'Promise' is the first televote friendly entry that Aussies send since 2019.

Not exactly the televote magnet but, in a weak field like Semi-Final 2 and performing in the second half is more than enough for them to qualify.

Activating the Jury power in Final could be enough for them to finish mid-table. The best-case scenario would be a Top-10 finish that feels too much for the moment but remember where Australia was pre-rehearsals in 2019...

I personally like the song, but it is not very high on my list. It has potential though to come alive on stage.

Currently I have it as the second-best option to close Semi-Final 2 and if that is the case a Top-3 result in the Semi could give them a decent draw and a chance to chase Top-10.

For the moment 13th-18th seems like a fair estimation.

It reminds me of...

Estonia '22, Cyprus '16, Georgia '15

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

10th-12th

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

60% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Australia qualifying one way or the other to the Final and get enough points to avoid Bottom-5 but not enough to threaten the Top-10.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 8. Australia...the qualifying record will never be the same

 

Qualifying Record: 4/5

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ                                      Current Running Order Streak: 5 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 5. Australia

 

5. Australia

Qualifying Record: 4/4

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/4

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12

Current Country Streak: 4 Q

                                                                Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ