Call it perfect timing, I call it Divine!

 

Eurovision 2026 Grand Final: The Market Is Finally Cracking

Eurovision 2026 has saved all the drama for the very end.

A season that has been defined by Finland sitting at the top of the betting market since late January suddenly feels far more unstable than the odds are implying. Finland still lead the market, but momentum has shifted dramatically since Thursday night and especially after Friday’s jury rehearsal, with Australia and Bulgaria timing their surge perfectly.

And for the first time in months, this Contest genuinely feels open.

I do think we are heading towards an extremely close result tonight. Despite what the outright odds suggest, there are realistically four countries with a genuine winning path and the margin between victory and heartbreak could be razor-thin.

Australia Have Peaked At Exactly The Right Time

Australia have gained the momentum and Delta’s performance is simply operating on another level.

“Eclipse” feels like the complete package now. The vocals are flawless, the staging has scale without becoming chaotic and, most importantly, she looks like a winner on camera. Eurovision juries love credibility and star quality, and Australia suddenly have both in abundance.

I expect Australia to win the jury vote.

The key question is not whether they win it, but by how much.

If they land somewhere in the 250-point range with juries, the televote probably settles around 140-160 and suddenly things become dangerous. But if the juries really go all in and push them closer to 275 points, then we are talking about a potential 180-200 televote score as well.

There is almost always one entry every year that creates an unusual level of agreement between juries and televoters. This year, Australia feel like that entry.

And once that happens, they become the country everyone else has to chase.

Finland’s Winning Path Suddenly Looks Much Narrower

Finland are still leading the market and their pre-show metrics have been solid throughout the season, but their post-Semi dynamics simply do not scream “convincing Eurovision winner”.

There is also a risk that the perceived EBU favouritism ends up creating resistance among casual viewers rather than support.

I am still not fully convinced this is an entry that the wider Saturday-night audience will embrace heavily in the televote. That has been my concern for weeks and nothing during the live shows has really changed that feeling.

The biggest issue for Finland tonight is simple:

How close can they stay to Australia after the jury vote?

Because I always believed Finland’s route to victory relied on either winning the juries outright or staying extremely close to the top. Australia may have blocked that path entirely.

If Finland are sitting somewhere around 200-225 jury points, they could easily find themselves already 30-50 points behind Australia before televoting even begins.

And that is where the uphill battle starts.

Can Finland realistically finish 50+ points ahead of Australia in the televote while:

• Greece
• Israel
• Moldova
• Bulgaria
• Italy

are all competing for similar televote territory?

The Nordic and Baltic support will absolutely be there for Finland. But I am far less convinced about their access to the Eastern televote where diaspora and regional voting patterns could heavily fragment the scoreboard.

Right now, Finland feel more like a 5th-7th place televote entry than a runaway winner.

And that may simply not be enough.

Greece Remain Massively Underrated

Greece have had a fascinating week in the betting markets.

The odds halved on Monday, drifted again after the Semi-Final and have since pushed back out into the middle-to-high teens. But I still think the market is underestimating them because it has failed to properly account for one of the biggest structural changes in this year’s Contest:

The younger jurors.

The EBU’s attempt to bring jury and televote results closer together could significantly benefit entries with stronger emotional accessibility and broader modern appeal.

That matters enormously for Greece.

I still believe Greece will perform substantially better with juries than the market expects and I would not be surprised at all if they either win the televote outright or finish extremely close to the top.

Yes, the Balkan and Eastern bloc entries may dilute each other somewhat in the public vote. But Greece should still score heavily enough across multiple regions to remain fully competitive if the winning threshold lands somewhere around 430-450 points.

Maybe it is overthinking.
Maybe it is bias.

But Greece feel like a locked Top-3 result to me and if an opening appears tonight, they are absolutely capable of taking it.

If Greece hit 180+ jury points, then the game truly begins.

Bulgaria Have Become The Chaos Candidate

Bulgaria are the dark horse that exploded into contention on Wednesday and completely changed the complexion of this Final.

The staging elevated the entry several levels.
Dara has undeniable charisma.
The song works both East and West.
And crucially, it feels accessible to both juries and televoters.

That combination is rare.

Add an extremely favourable running order position and suddenly Bulgaria become the entry nobody wants to ignore anymore.

The market certainly noticed.

Seeing Bulgaria collapse from triple-digit odds earlier in the week into serious contention has been one of the defining betting stories of Eurovision 2026.

And honestly? I am glad I jumped on the bandwagon before the explosion happened.

One additional point worth noting: the voting reveal order strongly suggests that Bulgaria, Greece or potentially both could receive a late scoreboard push from countries like:

• Serbia
• Moldova
• Croatia
• Romania

That could create exactly the kind of dramatic momentum swing that changes perception during the live voting itself.

My Final Eurovision 2026 Predictions

1. Australia

Jury: 250-275
Televote: 180-200
Total: 430-475

Australia have the momentum, the jury appeal and the performance that feels biggest on television. If they win the juries clearly enough, the televote should naturally follow.

The last Eurovision winner to take fewer than 200 televote points was Austria last year in a far weaker field. Australia look much stronger than that profile.

2. Greece

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 225-250
Total: 405-450

If Greece get the jury respect I believe they will receive, then they become a genuine contender because the televote should already be there.

They are far more credible with juries than the market assumes.

3. Bulgaria

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 180-200
Total: 360-400

Could this be the shock winner?

A week ago Bulgaria were trading at absurd prices. Now they suddenly look capable of exploding across both voting groups. If the jury score lands near 200 points, everyone should start paying attention very quickly.

4. Finland

Jury: 190-210
Televote: 160-180
Total: 350-390

For most of the season, Finland always felt like one of two extremes:

• either a 500+ point landslide winner,
• or an entry finishing around 4th with 375 points.

I am leaning much more towards the second scenario now.

They can still absolutely win.
But there are now too many uncertainties to justify the current market position.

The Rest Of My Top-10

5. Israel

Jury: 50-60
Televote: 220-240
Total: 270-295

A huge televote score is coming, but I struggle to see enough jury support to truly contend unless they unexpectedly cross the 125-point jury mark.

6. Romania

Jury: 65-80
Televote: 130-145
Total: 195-225

Could comfortably finish Top-10.
Could also finish 11th.
One of the harder entries to price correctly.

7. Italy

Jury: 70-90
Televote: 120-135
Total: 190-225

Classic Italy. Strong enough to remain relevant everywhere without necessarily dominating anywhere.

8. Ukraine

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 130-145
Total: 190-220

Another reliable Ukrainian Top-10 result feels likely, although the Eastern televote congestion could suppress the ceiling slightly.

9. Moldova

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 150-170
Total: 180-215

One of my favourite positions of the season. I loved the Top-10 value from early April and still think it lands comfortably.

10. France

Jury: 125-140
Televote: 35-50
Total: 160-190

A disappointing rehearsal week overall. Monroe is excellent, but the staging once again feels like France never fully understood how to maximise the entry’s potential.

Top-10 is no longer guaranteed.

11. Denmark

Jury: 100-120
Televote: 35-50
Total: 135-170

Opposing Denmark for a Top-5 result has been one of my core positions since before Eurovision week started and I still believe the market overrated their ceiling throughout the season.

The jury support should still be respectable because of the professionalism and overall package quality, but I struggle to see where the televote explosion comes from in such a competitive Final.

The early Top-10 lays may end up being the cherry on top if the scoreboard becomes crowded around the middle positions.

12. Albania

Jury: 75-90
Televote: 60-75
Total: 135-165

Albania absolutely have a path towards the Top-10 if juries connect with the authenticity and emotional intensity of the performance.

The issue is that they are competing in a very congested area of the scoreboard where several Eastern and Balkan entries could end up cannibalising each other’s support.

Still, this feels like one of Albania’s strongest overall Eurovision packages in years and a Top-15 finish should be comfortably achievable.

13. Malta

Jury: 90-110
Televote: 10-20
Total: 100-130

Malta will always have a special place in my heart for the 2026 season — not because of the entry itself, but because of the market movement around it.

Their suspicious outright market support earlier in the season allowed me to offset a large part of my Finland exposure at very favourable prices. For that alone, I owe them my gratitude.

As for the result itself, this has “jury appreciation but televote rejection” written all over it.

14. Croatia

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-45
Total: 75-105

Croatia already overperformed expectations in the Semi-Final and simply reaching the Final feels like a success story in itself.

The song should collect enough regional support and scattered televote points to avoid disaster territory, but the overall ceiling feels limited in a packed Grand Final.

A lower mid-table result looks like the most realistic outcome.

15. Poland

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-40
Total: 75-100

Poland never truly generated momentum during Eurovision week and the staging did not elevate the entry enough to create serious upward movement.

There should still be enough diaspora and regional televote support to remain competitive around the middle of the scoreboard, but this lacks the broader crossover appeal needed for a higher finish.

16. Sweden

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 15-25
Total: 65-90

My biggest anti-market position of the season.

Sweden entered Eurovision week heavily overrated in my opinion and I have been aggressive both in the Top-10 and Top-15 lay markets. The overall package feels far too cold and anonymous to generate meaningful televote traction and I am not convinced the juries will rescue it enough either.

If Sweden miss the Top-10 entirely, it would not shock me whatsoever.

17. Czechia

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 0-10
Total: 60-85

Czechia feels like one of those entries that juries may reward for effort, structure and musical credibility while the public simply ignores it completely.

The televote ceiling looks extremely low and there is a genuine risk of single-digit public points tonight.

Without jury support, this could collapse very quickly.

18. Cyprus

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Cyprus should benefit from enough regional and neighbour support to avoid the very bottom of the scoreboard, but there is very little evidence suggesting broader appeal outside that lane.

The staging helped somewhat, though not enough to transform the overall trajectory of the entry.

19. Serbia

Jury: 20-35
Televote: 20-30
Total: 40-65

Serbia may pick up scattered televote support across the Balkans, but this feels like another entry trapped in the congestion of similar regional voting patterns.

The jury potential also appears fairly limited, making it difficult to identify a realistic route towards a stronger result.

20. Lithuania

Jury: 10-20
Televote: 5-15
Total: 15-35

Lithuania never managed to create any real traction throughout Eurovision week and now look vulnerable to being swallowed by the scoreboard entirely.

Even the usual regional support may not be enough in such a competitive field.

21. Norway

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 10-20
Total: 15-35

Norway have felt disconnected from the Contest almost from the beginning of rehearsals.

There may still be enough televote goodwill to avoid absolute last place territory, but this looks like an entry that both voting groups simply failed to engage with emotionally.

22. Germany

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 0-10
Total: 5-25

Germany’s biggest issue is not necessarily that the entry is bad — it is that nothing about it feels memorable enough to survive in a Final this crowded.

When casual viewers are overwhelmed with stronger visual and emotional packages, entries like this tend to disappear very quickly.

23. United Kingdom

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-10
Total: 0-20

Another painful year for the UK appears to be on the horizon.

The performance lacks identity, the staging feels disconnected from the song and there is no obvious voting constituency ready to rescue it.

Avoiding the bottom three may already count as success.

24. Austria

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Austria benefited enormously from the specific dynamics of last year’s Contest, but 2026 feels completely different.

This entry has struggled to generate any momentum whatsoever and now looks like one of the clearest candidates for a complete scoreboard collapse.

25. Belgium

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Belgium have quietly become one of my favourite longshot positions for last place.

The performance never connected during rehearsals, the staging feels lifeless and there is virtually no evidence of either jury or televote support emerging.

Betting Time

Disagreeing with the market for a second consecutive year allowed me to structure things very differently and avoid becoming overexposed to a Finland victory scenario.

My key hedge positions were:

• Denmark Top-5 lay
• Sweden Top-10 lay

And the Sweden lay alone may already be enough to protect the outright market completely.

Outside the winner market, Moldova Top-10 and Albania Top-15 were probably my favourite early-week value positions.

But the real story has been Bulgaria.

Getting involved before the market correction with:

• Top-10
• Top-5
• Top-4
• Top-3

positions created some enormous upside and Top-10 alone now covers the overall Bulgarian exposure.

As for tonight’s outright positions:

• Australia to Win — 400 units @4.1
• Greece to Win — 50 units @17.5
• Bulgaria to Win — 50 units @16.5
• Bulgaria Top-4 — 300 units @3.4

If any of Australia, Greece or Bulgaria win tonight, this will comfortably become my most profitable Eurovision ever.

And honestly, after a season this chaotic, dramatic and unpredictable, that would feel very fitting.

Good luck with your bets tonight — and get ready for one of the most exciting Eurovision voting sequences we have had in years.

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Germany

 

Baller - Abor & Tynna

An anti-climactic and super complicated national final that ended with the Germans opting for the most German entry of all.

'Baller' is the type of song that Germany should be sending to Eurovision more often, highlighting their clubbing/alternative music culture that could be their trademark and would be acknowledged both by jurors and the public.

This is an entry that could land anywhere and will rely on creating some hype during the Eurovision week to boost their chances. It will need  a different staging from the one they presented in the national final to avoid being blanked/downvoted by the Juries.

The make it or break it factor for Germany will be their public appeal. They do have an entry that deserves to be in the Public vote Top-10. Tynna has lots of charisma and the duo oozes authenticity which is highly appreciated and rewarded lately.

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if they fail to create some buzz and finish 22nd, but if I had to choose any of the two scenarios, I would be more confident for a Top-10 result. 

With a good running order in the Final and a great staging they could be the breath of fresh air and could fill in the gap between the televote magnets and the jury oriented entries. 

Germany might be the pleasant surprise of this year!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany getting a mid-table result with the Juries and a Top-10 result with the Public vote to make it in the overall Top-10, finishing 8th-9th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 36.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 20-75 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 95-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries crash the German hopes for a Top-10 result? Could the Public vote be enough to secure it?

You can hear my thoughts about Germany in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

You Will Never Walk Alone!

 The time has come! The 37 participants are all known by now, the running order of the Semi-Finals is revealed plus the running order for Ukraine (#19) and UK (#26) at the Final. 

The pre-parties' season is here, and we are just a few days away from the first Euro-Jury results.

This is the first post for this season that will try to shine some light to the knowns, the unknowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown knowns of the 2023 Eurovision season.

The market has a clear favourite and that is Sweden, with Loreen trying to double her wins eleven years after the first time. It is currently trading @2.12 but the price has reached 1.85 at one point. The main reason behind that favouritism is the lack of another serious contender that could be considered a threat for Sweden.

My experience and historical data suggest that Sweden will be leading the odds' board at least until after Semi-Final 1 and most probably until the Final night.

It is the one to beat and it could easily be a default winner scoring high both with Juries and Televoting.

This is its biggest advantage and the reason its price is so short. There is a bunch of countries that follow in odds and have a main feature: they are all lacking impact in one of the two constituencies, mostly with Juries.

There is Finland the second favourite @6.60 destined to win Televoting but will seriously struggle with Juries.

The same goes for Norway @18, Israel @38, Austria @55. All of them are jury poison and have a long way to go and reach the minimum 175-200 Jury points that could keep them afloat and keep them in contention after the Jury voting will be over.

There is Ukraine, currently being the third favourite @8.20, the biggest mystery of all for a second year in a row, which could go all the way if the Ukrainian diaspora and some friendly Jury votes show up again. Ukraine's televoting points will be a decisive factor and will either clear the air or will complicate things even more when the score will be revealed.

There is also a group of countries which we know that they will perform well with Juries but will struggle in Televoting. 

The main contender in this category is Spain @22, currently fifth in odds, Italy @120, Switzerland @110, Netherlands @200 and, Estonia @330 follow. 

All of them are Top-10 jury material, Spain could be Top-3 and one or two of the rest could also sneak in Top-4/5. Could any of them appeal in a wider public and be Top-3/5 in Televoting? If the answer is yes, then we might have a second contender.

Then there are the unknowns. Czech Republic is the biggest one. The studio version could easily be Top-4/5 in the Final and with the help of the Ukrainian supporters in both constituencies could also be a contender. 

The live version though is a work in progress, and it remains to be seen how big the Ukrainian supporters' inflation will be.

France @85 and Armenia @110 could also be part of the equation. They have in theory a more balanced scoreboard than the other wanna be contenders but with a lower ceiling than Sweden. 

I have already mentioned fourteen countries, and this is an average year in terms of quality.

Like every year, there will be some entries that will rise in the Final week and some that will underperform. The trend in the last few years, 2019 and on is that the market does not shift much if any at all. There is always a group of 3-4 countries that are in the Top-3/4 and barely move, apart from 2021 where after each rehearsal we had a new favourite emerging but always from the same group.

In all those years, there were very few price crashes during or after rehearsals that proved to be bubbles that in the end collapsed (France '19, Azerbaijan '19, Australia '19).

The last entry that came out of nowhere and made an impact was Cyprus '18. Add Germany '18 as well if you like.

On the other hand, there are always a few entries every year that trade in single digits and are among the contenders, but they end up lower than Top-3, call me Malta '21, Italy '22, Estonia '18, Norway '18, Sweden '18, '19, '21, '22.

It is wiser at this stage to try and find opportunities in songs that could elevate when the time comes, instead of entries that are already short in odds and vulnerable.

The other statistical trend is that Juries and Televoters tend to disagree with each other, with Portugal back in 2017 being the last winner that won both constituencies and the only winner that did it with the 50/50 voting system since 2016 that the current system is used.

There are also 3 Televoting winners that won the Contest (Israel '18, Italy '21, Ukraine '22) and 2 entries that won the contest without topping any of the two constituencies (Ukraine '16, Netherlands '19)

If we apply the 50/50 voting system in the 12 Finals that we do have data available ('09-'12, 14'-'22) there is only 1 Jury winner that won the contest without winning the Televoting as well.

And this is my main objection regarding Sweden's super-favouritism. It is the main contender, it might win, but its price is not right, especially given its recent track record with the Televoters.

Add to that the other trend regarding the type of songs that perform well and that is authenticity and vulnerability.

Loreen is a great artist and performer, however there is a complete lack of connection with the audience during the performance.

Many random viewers will recognize her and that is a plus, but many of them will also compare Tattoo with Euphoria and we all know who wins between the two. 

The composition is Eurovision by numbers and subtly tries to imitate Euphoria but there is something missing there.

The Winning path for Sweden in my opinion is Juries 275-300pts - Televoting 200-225pts

It seems achievable but one hit and miss might be enough to cost them the win. Right now, Sweden could be third in Televoting just between the Nordic countries. Add to them Israel, Austria, Czech Republic and Spain and finishing 5th or 6th could be game over if they are under 300pts with the Juries.

The fair price for Sweden is 3.50-4.50.

Ukraine might have a window of opportunity for the win as well, if their Televote Score is +300pts. At double digits there might be some value there.

Spain needs a split that is similar to Sweden's: Juries 275-300pts - Televoting 200-225pts. The problem here is that with a few exceptions Spain will not receive Televoting points from Western Europe. It needs as many 12s and 10s it could get from the South and the Balkans and the random 1-3s from elsewhere. 

A fair price would have been @35-40.

This is the entry that will heavily rely on Blanca Paloma's staging presence that is full of confidence and will lift the song. Spain needs a momentum.

Czech Republic has the same path with Ukraine. They need +325 Televoting pts to make it. A fair price is around 50.

I have Finland, Israel and Austria at the same level. Right now, they are somewhere between 200-300 Televoting pts and 50-125 Jury pts. It is my belief that one of them could convince the Juries that is a worthy entry and could bring their Jury score close to 200pts. 

If that happens, then whoever does it, will be the grand favourite to win the Contest. 

But it can only be one of this group. Euro-jury might be a huge help this year to identify a possible contender.

Under their current odds, Finland is very short. A fair price would be @25-30.

Israel has some value @38 and Austria's is just fair having a smaller jury potential.

Now focusing on the jury bait group, Italy, Netherlands and Switzerland need a superb staging that could attract the Televoters as well. But first of all, they need to secure a minimum of 250-275 Jury pts. If that happens, they have a very slight chance to become contenders.

Again, it can only be one that makes it. If I had to choose someone from this group, that would be Netherlands given their recent staging record.

France and Armenia could be the dark horses. They both have potential for a great staging that could help them have a balanced scoreboard that could push them further up. 250 Jury pts - 250 Televoting pts could theoretically be enough for them. 

Things will start to shape up in the next few weeks when we will have the chance to see the songs performed live at the pre-parties and the Euro-Jury results establishing a status quo.

Until then, I will continue posting my first impressions about the remaining entries and will also post a breakdown of the advantages and disadvantages of the leading entries.

Buonasera Signore e Signori!

 

This has been a very intense year indeed and tonight will be no exception.

Since the rehearsals started, we have seen numerous changes on the lead with Malta, France and Italy being up there followed by Switzerland and Iceland.

We have lost Bulgaria that was among the favourites and Ukraine has emerged as a dark horse and currently sits fourth in odds.

Now to the Million Dollar question! Who's going to win? This is a tough one! This year has been the most open since at least 2011. All songs in Top-5/6 have their vulnerabilities and that makes things very very interesting for tonight. Some of them are strong with Juries, other are strong with Televoting and some are average with both constituencies but could emerge in case someone else flops.

When I started writing about 2021, I had the feeling that in this post-covid Eurovision people are looking for a reason to party, forget for a night all the problems and difficulties of the past year and have fun. The SF results gave me the same impression with lighter, fun songs qualifying.

If there is one thing, I'm sure about is that tonight, we will have the smallest winning margin of the 50/50 voting era (currently 23pts - 2016). 

I have spent the last few days watching the different metrics (YouTube views, like-dislike ratio, charts, social media mentions ) and have taken in consideration all those numbers in my prediction/estimation for the Final.

Without further ado this is my 1 -26 prediction/estimation for tonight. Just a note for the points. The numbers might be inflated as I'm estimating the best-case scenario with each constituency

1. Italy 480 - 540 pts

J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts

Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality. 

Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.

The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.

For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.

2. Malta 430 - 510 pts

J: 1st/ 230-280 pts  - TV: 4th/ 200-230pts

Currently the third favourite @ 6.40. Will fight with France for the Jury win (@4.10 and has a big chance for the win if it makes it to the Top-4 with Televoting. That is Malta's biggest problem in general and starting in slot 6 does not help at all. 

Juries are ok to give the win to an entry that start early in the show, but Televoters are not that keen. Only Russia in 2019 managed to finish in Top-4...

The other tell that the running order suggests is that Malta has not won the Televoting in the SF and was not even second, otherwise the producers would have given them a better spot.

If they nail the Televoting though, there are in for the win, but it can equally flop and drop a few spots.

3. Switzerland 430 - 490 pts

J: 3rd/ 210-240 pts - TV: 3rd/ 220-250pts

The potential default winner. Switzerland has done its full circle in and out of the hot favourites circle. Currently is fifth in odds @ 13.00.

Juries will highly rank this one and will get some Televoting love. I might have overestimated its Televoting power, but it will be up there. If the winning threshold drops below 500 pts with four countries over 400pts each, Switzerland could benefit and win. 

Running order (11) suggests that did very well in SF.

Top-4 finish @ 2.10 - 2.25 is a safe bet.

4. Ukraine 410 - 470 pts

J: 8th/ 110-120 pts - TV: 1st/ 300-350pts

Our dark horse. During the SF on Tuesday Ukraine was trading @30-36! It has come a long way and the main reason is that it is charting everywhere, and the YouTube views and likes are massive. 

If the Jury score is better than the one above, brace yourselves for a surprise winner!

Winning the Televoting is currently @ 3.75 - 4.20 and Top-4 @ 1.80-1.95

The Win is currently @ 8.00-8.20

5. France 395 - 485 pts

J: 2nd/ 220-260 pts - TV: 5th/ 175-225pts

The second favourite now, though it has started drifting as of this morning. I have been sceptical about France since the first time that I have heard it. I do get its jury appeal, I do get its televoting appeal with certain demographics, but I do think that having it 5th is the super optimistic scenario for France. 

Being sandwiched between Lithuania, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan it helps it stand out, but people will still be talking about Ukraine when this is on.

It needs a landslide win with Juries to stand a chance.

6. Iceland 290 - 360 pts

J: 5th/ 150-180 pts - TV: 6th/ 140-180pts

Iceland using the live on tape has totally killed their momentum. People know that they are not live on stage and that might be off putting. They may score better with Televoting than my prediction, but 4th place is its ceiling. 

If you are a believer Top-5 is currently @ 2.74

7. Lithuania 190 - 220 pts

J: 12th/ 80-90 pts - TV: 7th/ 110-130pts

Lithuania has lost its momentum. Televoting can guarantee a secure Top-10 finish but wouldn't be surprised if it missed Top-10. 

8. Portugal 175 - 195 pts

J: 7th/ 125-135 pts - TV: 15th/ 50-60pts

The other late bloomer that might end up finishing in Top-10 and no one will be surprised.

Top-10 @ 1.90-2.08

9. Finland 165 - 185 pts

J: 13th/ 75-85 pts - TV: 9th/ 90-100pts

Another charts bloomer. YouTube views and like plus the charting suggest a strong televoting result that might guarantee a Top-10 finish. No value there though.

10. Russia 150 - 180 pts

J: 15th/ 50-60 pts - TV: 8th/ 100-120pts

Mamma Russia has the allies and the televoting power that can secure a Top-10 result.

If you believe in Russian Woman Top-10 is @ 2.75-3.00

I will continue with my 11-26 estimations just for the bragging rights before getting to the betting part of the post

11. Netherlands 150 - 180 pts

J: 6th/ 130-150 pts - TV: 22nd/ 20-30pts

12. San Marino 125 -145 pts

J: 18th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 10th/ 90-100pts

13. Belgium 130 - 145 pts

J: 9th/ 100-110 pts - TV: 19th/ 30-35pts

14. Sweden 120 -140 pts

J: 10th/ 95-105 pts - TV: 20th/ 25-35pts

15. Serbia 115 - 135 pts

J: 16th/ 45-55 pts - TV: 11th/ 70-80pts

16. Bulgaria 115 - 135 pts

J: 11th/ 90-100 pts - TV: 21st/ 25-35pts

17. Cyprus 110 -130 pts

J: 14th/ 55-65 pts - TV: 13th/ 55-65pts

18. Azerbaijan 95 -115 pts

J: 20th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 12th/ 60-70pts

19. Norway 90 - 110 pts

J: 19th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 14th/ 55-65pts

20. Greece 80 -100 pts

J: 17th/ 40-50 pts - TV: 16th/ 40-50pts

21. Albania 65 - 85 pts

J: 22nd/ 30-40 pts - TV: 17th/ 35-45pts

22. Moldova 65 - 85 pts

J: 21st/ 30-40 pts - TV: 18th/ 35-45pts

23. Israel 40 - 60 pts

J: 23rd/ 20-30 pts - TV: 23rd/ 20-30pts

24. Spain 25 - 40 pts

J: 24th/ 15-25 pts - TV: 25th/ 10-15pts

25. Germany 20 - 30 pts

J: 26th/ 5-10 pts - TV: 24th/ 15-25pts

26. UK 15 - 25 pts

J: 25th/ 10-15 pts - TV:26th/ 5-10pts

Betting Time

The SF bets could have been better, especially SF2, but the fact that I had 8/10 in both SFs with the 9th and 10th spots being missed and 11th and 12th making it is a proof that I'm heading to the right direction.

The results so far

SF - 1

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

SF - 2

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units - Lost

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units - Lost

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units - Lost

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units - Lost

Units played: 200

Units returned: 0

So, I have 2 open bets from SF-1 and 191 units to add to the 600 that were reserved for the Final, so 791 units in total.

And here we go

Final 

Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units

Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units

Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units

Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units

Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units

And my fun bets

Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units

Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units

Units played: 791

Open Units: 25

For those following the bet on Italy to win, if you have the patience and wait for the Jury voting, I reckon you will find it at a better price.

Good luck with your bets tonight. Thank you all for your support and trust during the whole Eurovision season!

I will try to beat the post Eurovision depression by posting about the results and my betting outcome.

The Dark Arts of Final's Running Order - The Myth of No13 and the Pimp Slot

 

There is a very crucial point for a Eurovision entry's fate that sometimes we tend to underestimate and this is the running order. 

Since 2013 that the producers are deciding for the running order, with the countries just drawing for the first or second half, there are a few tells hidden there that might tip us about the chances of a song.

I have studied the 2014-2019 running orders (applying the 50/50 system in 2014 and 2015) and these are my findings. Grab your popcorn and have fun!

The Semi Final Winners

So far, we had 12 SFs and the split is 6 in the first half and 6 in the second.

The earliest slot that a winner had is 7 (Norway 2018) and managed to finish 15th, by far the worst performance. To be fair with the producers, Norway has been the weakest of all SF winners along with Australia 2019.

The other slots of the first half:

10: Sweden 2015 - Winner

11: Austria 2014 - Winner

     Portugal 2017 - Winner

12: Netherlands 2019 - Winner

13: Australia 2016 - 2nd

First half is not that bad with 4/6 winners performing there.

There is a concern though regarding their Televoting performance. Sweden and Netherlands finished third and Australia finished fourth.

Austria and Portugal finished first both with Juries and Televoting. 

Things looking better with Juries for Sweden and Australia, both winning with a huge margin. 

Netherlands is the only winner of the first half that hasn't won Juries or Televoting.

And now moving to the second half. 

The earliest draw for a winner is slot 18 (Russia 2016) that finished third, even though they won Televoting.

The rest of the slots

22: Israel 2018 - Winner

24: Netherlands 2014 - 2nd

25: Russia 2015 - 2nd

      Bulgaria 2017 - 2nd

      Australia 2019 - 9th

     

So, with great certainty we can assume that if a song from SF2 is placed in slot 25 must have won the SF. 

The other observation is that we only have 1/6 Winners worse record than the first half.

The other interesting finding is that apart from Russia only Israel won the Televoting

Semi Finals Runner Ups

Things are getting trickier for the second places, where we have a bigger diaspora of slots. In the first half we have

3: Israel 2015 - 9th

    Czechia 2019 - 11th

6: Romania 2014 - 10th

7: Moldova 2017 - 3rd

8: Hungary 2017 - 8th

   North Macedonia 2019 - 7th

13: Belgium 2015 - 4th

Israel in 3 didn't make a sense, but the first six they were placed in 3,6,7 and 8 had something in common. They were very vulnerable in one of the two constituencies (Js for Isr, Rom, Mol and Hun - TV for Cze and N.Mac). 

Belgium that was solid in both got a well-deserved 13.

And now let's have a look at the second half

20: Sweden 2018 - 7th

21: Hungary 2014 - 5th

      Ukraine 2016 - Winner

25: Cyprus 2018 - 2nd

26: Armenia 2016 - 7th

Things look better here, with the only Winner (Ukraine 2016) so far that has not won its SF. 

The overwhelming fact about the runner ups is that apart from Ukraine 2016 that improved its finishing and from Cyprus 2018 that maintained the same place in the Final, the other 10 finished lower. 

It does make sense in a broader field of course, but it impressive that only three made it to the Top-3 and only five made it to the Top-5!

Podium Rankings by slot

The Winners are concentrated in five slots

10: Sweden 2015

11: Austria 2014

      Portugal 2017

12: Netherlands 2019

21: Ukraine 2016

22: Israel 2018

The Runner Ups are also scattered in five slots

13: Australia 2016

22: Italy 2019

24: Netherlands 2014

25: Bulgaria 2017

      Cyprus 2018

27: Italy 2015* (finished 3rd but would be 2nd with the 50/50 voting system)

2018 is the only year that the Winner and Runner Up perform in the same half...

Let's have a look at the Third places as well.

5: Austria 2018

    Russia 2019 

7: Moldova 2017

13: Sweden 2014

18: Russia 2016

25: Russia 2015* (finished 2nd but would be 3rd with the 50/50 voting system)

There is only one Pimp Slot Podium Finish (Italy 2015).

The ideal slots are 11-13, 21-22 and 24-25, but we haven't had a Winner after 22. 

Netherlands' draw in 23 looks a bit more suspicious now, having only Belgium 2017 finishing 4th...and the rest of the entries used as fillers.

Average Rankings by Slot and other Facts

1. 

Average Ranking: 15 

Average Jury Ranking: 15

Average Televoting Ranking: 15.7

Best Ranking: Ukraine 2014 - 7th

Worst Ranking: Israel 2017 - 23rd

Interesting Facts: No entry has finished higher than 7th in Total (Ukraine 2014) - 6th with Juries (Belgium 2016) and 7th with Televoting (Ukraine 2018)

2. 

Average Ranking: 21.7

Average Jury Ranking: 19.2

Average Televoting Ranking: 19.3

Best Ranking: Belarus 2014 - Albania 2019 -17th

Worst Ranking: France 2015 - 26

Interesting Facts: The death slot! By far the worst slot in the Final. 

3/4 of the SF qualifiers that appeared in that slot were saved either by Juries or Televoting.

No entry has cracked the Top-10 with Juries or Televoting...

3.

Average Ranking: 14

Average Jury Ranking: 11.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 17.2

Best Ranking: Israel 2015 - 9th

Worst Ranking: Slovenia 2018 - 22nd

Interesting Facts: 3 entries finished Top-10 with Juries, 1 with Televoting

4. 

Average Ranking: 16

Average Jury Ranking: 14.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 15.5

Best Ranking: Estonia 2015 - 8th

Worst Ranking: Germany 2019 - 25th

Interesting Facts: 2/5 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.

5.

Average Ranking: 13.7

Average Jury Ranking: 12.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 15

Best Ranking: Austria 2018, Russia 2019 - 3rd

Worst Ranking: UK 2015 - 27th (last)

Interesting Facts: Both Austria and Russia finished lower in their respective SFs (4th and 6th) hence the early draw.

6. 

Average Ranking: 11.8

Average Jury Ranking: 12.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 13.5

Best Ranking: Estonia 2018 - 8th

Worst Ranking: Italy 2016 - 16th

Interesting Facts: 2/5 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.

7.

Average Ranking: 12

Average Jury Ranking: 12.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 11

Best Ranking: Moldova 2017 - 3rd

Worst Ranking: San Maarino 2019 - 19th

Interesting Facts: The first slot with 2 Top-5 finishes

8.

Average Ranking: 12.8

Average Jury Ranking: 15.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 12.8

Best Ranking: Bulgaria 2016 - 4th

Worst Ranking: Portugal 2018 - 26th

Interesting Facts: The first slot with 3 Top-10 rankings.

9.

Average Ranking: 9.2

Average Jury Ranking: 11.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 10.5

Best Ranking: Sweden 2016, 2019 - 5th

Worst Ranking: UK 2018, 24th

Interesting Facts: 5/6 Top-10 rankings but no podium finish

10.

Average Ranking: 16.8

Average Jury Ranking: 15.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 12.8

Best Ranking: Sweden 2015, Winner

Worst Ranking: Germany 2016 - 26th (last)

Interesting Facts: The second best ranking after Sweden's win is 15th...

11.

Average Ranking: 7.2

Average Jury Ranking: 4.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 10

Best Ranking: Austria 2014, Portugal 2017 - Winners

Worst Ranking: Cyprus 2015 - 18th

Interesting Facts: The best average rankings for Total and Juries

12.

Average Ranking: 9.7

Average Jury Ranking: 10.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 10

Best Ranking: Netherlands 2019 - Winner

Worst Ranking: Germany 2014 - 19th

Interesting Facts: Second best result Australia 2015 - 5th

13. 

Average Ranking: 9.3

Average Jury Ranking: 8.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 9.7

Best Ranking: Australia 2016 - 2nd

Worst Ranking: Greece 2019 - 21st

Interesting Facts: The last Top-10 result is Australia 2016 - 2nd

14. 

Average Ranking: 18

Average Jury Ranking: 17.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 19.3

Best Ranking: Czechia 2018 - 6th

Worst Ranking: France 2014 - 26th (last)

Interesting Facts: 4/6 Bottom-5 rankings

15. 

Average Ranking: 13

Average Jury Ranking: 18.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 10

Best Ranking: Russia 2014, Norway 2019 - 6th

Worst Ranking: Greece 2015 - 20th

Interesting Facts: 3/6 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.

16.

Average Ranking: 20

Average Jury Ranking: 17.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 20.2

Best Ranking: Lithuania 2016 - 9th

Worst Ranking: Spain 2017, UK 2019 - 26th (last)

Interesting Facts: 2 lasts places and one Bottom-5

17.

Average Ranking: 19.7

Average Jury Ranking: 18.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 18.7

Best Ranking: Norway 2017, Iceland 2019 - 10th

Worst Ranking: Slovenia 2014, Germany 2015, Finland 2018 - 25th 

Interesting Facts: 4/6 Bottom-5

18. 

Average Ranking: 13.8

Average Jury Ranking: 13

Average Televoting Ranking: 13

Best Ranking: Russia 2016 - 3rd

Worst Ranking: Poland 2015 - 22nd

Interesting Facts: The first Podium ranking of the 2nd half

19.

Average Ranking: 16.3

Average Jury Ranking: 13.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 15

Best Ranking: Latvia 2015 - 6th

Worst Ranking: Belarus 2019 - 24th

Interesting Facts: Only 2/6 Top-10s

20. 

Average Ranking: 10.2

Average Jury Ranking: 13.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 11.3

Best Ranking: Romania 2017, Sweden 2018 - 7th

Worst Ranking: Latvia 2016 - 15th

Interesting Facts: Middle of the road slot with all rankings between 7th-15th

21.

Average Ranking: 15.3

Average Jury Ranking: 15.2

Average Televoting Ranking: 14.8

Best Ranking: Ukraine 2016 - Winner

Worst Ranking: Germany 2017 - 25th

Interesting Facts: 2 Top-5 and 3 Bottom-5 entries

22. 

Average Ranking: 12.2

Average Jury Ranking: 9.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 14.7

Best Ranking: Israel 2018 - Winner

Worst Ranking: Ukraine 2017 - 24th

Interesting Facts: The first slot in second half with 2 podium finishings

23.

Average Ranking: 14.3

Average Jury Ranking: 12.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 14.2

Best Ranking: Belgium 2017 - 4th

Worst Ranking:  Georgia 2016 - 20th

Interesting Facts: Only 2 Top-10s

24. 

Average Ranking: 9.2

Average Jury Ranking: 10.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 8.8

Best Ranking: Netherlands 2014 - 2nd

Worst Ranking: Ireland 2018 - 16th

Interesting Facts: The slot with the best Televoting average

25.

Average Ranking: 10.7

Average Jury Ranking: 9.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 10.2

Best Ranking: Bulgaria 2017, Cyprus 2018 - 2nd

Worst Ranking: San Marino 2014, UK 2016 - 24th

Interesting Facts: 3 Podium rankings. The only slot

26. 

Average Ranking: 13.3

Average Jury Ranking: 19.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 10.8

Best Ranking: Italy 2018 - 5th

Worst Ranking: UK 2014, Spain 2019 - 22nd

Interesting Facts: The slot with the biggest discrepancy between Juries and Televoting