Buonasera Signore e Signori!

 

This has been a very intense year indeed and tonight will be no exception.

Since the rehearsals started, we have seen numerous changes on the lead with Malta, France and Italy being up there followed by Switzerland and Iceland.

We have lost Bulgaria that was among the favourites and Ukraine has emerged as a dark horse and currently sits fourth in odds.

Now to the Million Dollar question! Who's going to win? This is a tough one! This year has been the most open since at least 2011. All songs in Top-5/6 have their vulnerabilities and that makes things very very interesting for tonight. Some of them are strong with Juries, other are strong with Televoting and some are average with both constituencies but could emerge in case someone else flops.

When I started writing about 2021, I had the feeling that in this post-covid Eurovision people are looking for a reason to party, forget for a night all the problems and difficulties of the past year and have fun. The SF results gave me the same impression with lighter, fun songs qualifying.

If there is one thing, I'm sure about is that tonight, we will have the smallest winning margin of the 50/50 voting era (currently 23pts - 2016). 

I have spent the last few days watching the different metrics (YouTube views, like-dislike ratio, charts, social media mentions ) and have taken in consideration all those numbers in my prediction/estimation for the Final.

Without further ado this is my 1 -26 prediction/estimation for tonight. Just a note for the points. The numbers might be inflated as I'm estimating the best-case scenario with each constituency

1. Italy 480 - 540 pts

J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts

Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality. 

Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.

The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.

For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.

2. Malta 430 - 510 pts

J: 1st/ 230-280 pts  - TV: 4th/ 200-230pts

Currently the third favourite @ 6.40. Will fight with France for the Jury win (@4.10 and has a big chance for the win if it makes it to the Top-4 with Televoting. That is Malta's biggest problem in general and starting in slot 6 does not help at all. 

Juries are ok to give the win to an entry that start early in the show, but Televoters are not that keen. Only Russia in 2019 managed to finish in Top-4...

The other tell that the running order suggests is that Malta has not won the Televoting in the SF and was not even second, otherwise the producers would have given them a better spot.

If they nail the Televoting though, there are in for the win, but it can equally flop and drop a few spots.

3. Switzerland 430 - 490 pts

J: 3rd/ 210-240 pts - TV: 3rd/ 220-250pts

The potential default winner. Switzerland has done its full circle in and out of the hot favourites circle. Currently is fifth in odds @ 13.00.

Juries will highly rank this one and will get some Televoting love. I might have overestimated its Televoting power, but it will be up there. If the winning threshold drops below 500 pts with four countries over 400pts each, Switzerland could benefit and win. 

Running order (11) suggests that did very well in SF.

Top-4 finish @ 2.10 - 2.25 is a safe bet.

4. Ukraine 410 - 470 pts

J: 8th/ 110-120 pts - TV: 1st/ 300-350pts

Our dark horse. During the SF on Tuesday Ukraine was trading @30-36! It has come a long way and the main reason is that it is charting everywhere, and the YouTube views and likes are massive. 

If the Jury score is better than the one above, brace yourselves for a surprise winner!

Winning the Televoting is currently @ 3.75 - 4.20 and Top-4 @ 1.80-1.95

The Win is currently @ 8.00-8.20

5. France 395 - 485 pts

J: 2nd/ 220-260 pts - TV: 5th/ 175-225pts

The second favourite now, though it has started drifting as of this morning. I have been sceptical about France since the first time that I have heard it. I do get its jury appeal, I do get its televoting appeal with certain demographics, but I do think that having it 5th is the super optimistic scenario for France. 

Being sandwiched between Lithuania, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan it helps it stand out, but people will still be talking about Ukraine when this is on.

It needs a landslide win with Juries to stand a chance.

6. Iceland 290 - 360 pts

J: 5th/ 150-180 pts - TV: 6th/ 140-180pts

Iceland using the live on tape has totally killed their momentum. People know that they are not live on stage and that might be off putting. They may score better with Televoting than my prediction, but 4th place is its ceiling. 

If you are a believer Top-5 is currently @ 2.74

7. Lithuania 190 - 220 pts

J: 12th/ 80-90 pts - TV: 7th/ 110-130pts

Lithuania has lost its momentum. Televoting can guarantee a secure Top-10 finish but wouldn't be surprised if it missed Top-10. 

8. Portugal 175 - 195 pts

J: 7th/ 125-135 pts - TV: 15th/ 50-60pts

The other late bloomer that might end up finishing in Top-10 and no one will be surprised.

Top-10 @ 1.90-2.08

9. Finland 165 - 185 pts

J: 13th/ 75-85 pts - TV: 9th/ 90-100pts

Another charts bloomer. YouTube views and like plus the charting suggest a strong televoting result that might guarantee a Top-10 finish. No value there though.

10. Russia 150 - 180 pts

J: 15th/ 50-60 pts - TV: 8th/ 100-120pts

Mamma Russia has the allies and the televoting power that can secure a Top-10 result.

If you believe in Russian Woman Top-10 is @ 2.75-3.00

I will continue with my 11-26 estimations just for the bragging rights before getting to the betting part of the post

11. Netherlands 150 - 180 pts

J: 6th/ 130-150 pts - TV: 22nd/ 20-30pts

12. San Marino 125 -145 pts

J: 18th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 10th/ 90-100pts

13. Belgium 130 - 145 pts

J: 9th/ 100-110 pts - TV: 19th/ 30-35pts

14. Sweden 120 -140 pts

J: 10th/ 95-105 pts - TV: 20th/ 25-35pts

15. Serbia 115 - 135 pts

J: 16th/ 45-55 pts - TV: 11th/ 70-80pts

16. Bulgaria 115 - 135 pts

J: 11th/ 90-100 pts - TV: 21st/ 25-35pts

17. Cyprus 110 -130 pts

J: 14th/ 55-65 pts - TV: 13th/ 55-65pts

18. Azerbaijan 95 -115 pts

J: 20th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 12th/ 60-70pts

19. Norway 90 - 110 pts

J: 19th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 14th/ 55-65pts

20. Greece 80 -100 pts

J: 17th/ 40-50 pts - TV: 16th/ 40-50pts

21. Albania 65 - 85 pts

J: 22nd/ 30-40 pts - TV: 17th/ 35-45pts

22. Moldova 65 - 85 pts

J: 21st/ 30-40 pts - TV: 18th/ 35-45pts

23. Israel 40 - 60 pts

J: 23rd/ 20-30 pts - TV: 23rd/ 20-30pts

24. Spain 25 - 40 pts

J: 24th/ 15-25 pts - TV: 25th/ 10-15pts

25. Germany 20 - 30 pts

J: 26th/ 5-10 pts - TV: 24th/ 15-25pts

26. UK 15 - 25 pts

J: 25th/ 10-15 pts - TV:26th/ 5-10pts

Betting Time

The SF bets could have been better, especially SF2, but the fact that I had 8/10 in both SFs with the 9th and 10th spots being missed and 11th and 12th making it is a proof that I'm heading to the right direction.

The results so far

SF - 1

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

SF - 2

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units - Lost

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units - Lost

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units - Lost

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units - Lost

Units played: 200

Units returned: 0

So, I have 2 open bets from SF-1 and 191 units to add to the 600 that were reserved for the Final, so 791 units in total.

And here we go

Final 

Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units

Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units

Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units

Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units

Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units

And my fun bets

Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units

Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units

Units played: 791

Open Units: 25

For those following the bet on Italy to win, if you have the patience and wait for the Jury voting, I reckon you will find it at a better price.

Good luck with your bets tonight. Thank you all for your support and trust during the whole Eurovision season!

I will try to beat the post Eurovision depression by posting about the results and my betting outcome.