Semi Final - 1 - Pre Rehearsal Power Rankings

May is finally here and just a few days before we have Lithuania on stage for the first rehearsal after two years, here are my Power Rankings. 

The meaning of this pre-Rehearsal ranking is to go back in approximately two weeks' time and see how different the reality was before everything started. Use it as a picture of the moment.

Every country has a link for its analysis. Enjoy!

1. Malta 

Televoting: 1  - Juries: 1 

Odds: Q 1.01 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 13.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 1.58 (exchange) - 1.50 (betting site)

Estimation: Malta is heading for its first win! This is the strong SF, but this is the song with the biggest potential so far.

Anything worse than the first place in the SF will be a surprise.

2. Lithuania

Televoting: 2  - Juries: 2

Odds: Q 1.10 (exchange market), Q:1.06 -NQ: 8.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 7.80 (exchange) - 8.00 (betting site)

Estimation: I am still uncertain if it will finish second with the Juries, but I do believe that the Televoting is secured. It is less vulnerable than other entries.

Top-3 is almost certain, and it is sailing to the Final.

3. Cyprus

Televoting: 3  - Juries: 6

Odds: Q 1.13 (exchange market), Q:1.10 -NQ: 6.50 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 19 (exchange) - 12 (betting site)

Estimation: Many would expect to find Sweden here, but this is the time that Sweden will see some cracks not only in its final result but also in its SF. 

Every year a random song makes it to Top-3 in every SF. Cyprus is not a random song, there are other. Originally, I had it lower, but its Televoting potential, at least in a SF level, could boost it enough to secure the Top-3. It is far from certain though.

Qualification won't be an issue. 

4. Romania

Televoting: 6  - Juries: 4

Odds: Q 1.23 (exchange market), Q:1.22 -NQ: 4.00 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 15.50 (exchange) - 13 (betting site)

Estimation: Will be part of the second group of entries that will qualify with easy but without threatening the Top-3. 

It has an audience and Juries will bite its contemporary nature and hype. It might finish lower, but don't think it will struggle unless the Romanian staging mess will appear once more.

5. Russia

Televoting: 5  - Juries: 8

Odds: Q 1.37 (exchange market), Q:1.33 -NQ: 3.25 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 40 (exchange) - 26 (betting site)

Estimation: Maybe I am a bit bullish on Russia, but I do think that this is an entry that has potential and that it will grow on people when rehearsals start.

It is not 100% yet, but I do think that it will qualify somehow. Interested to see how Juries will take, but Russia is already struggling with them. 

Kudos to Russia for a brave and alternative entry!

6. Ukraine

Televoting: 4  - Juries: 10

Odds: Q 1.30 (exchange market), Q:1.22 -NQ: 4.00 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 46 (exchange) - 21 (betting site)

Estimation: Another brave entry that has its audience. Won't be higher, it will be slightly lower, but it feels like it is a certain qualifier. 

Running order will help as well.

7. Norway

Televoting: 9  - Juries: 5

Odds: Q 1.39 (exchange market), Q:1.25 -NQ: 3.75 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 65 (exchange) - 21 (betting site)

Estimation: I haven't cracked the code with this one yet. It could easily finish in Top-3 in the SF, and it could also be a shock non qualifier.

I don't know how many viewers will know the story behind TIX's persona and how many will find the staging kitsch or superficial. 

I believe it will do better with Juries, which will recognize the hit potential. 

8. Sweden

Televoting: 8  - Juries: 7

Odds: Q 1.12 (exchange market), Q:1.06 -NQ: 8.00 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 13.00 (exchange) - 7.00 (betting site)

Estimation: This might be the year that we will finally see Sweden finishing out of Top-3 in a SF since 2010!!!

Safe to qualify, might perform better with Juries but Sweden is heading for its first out of Top-10 result since 2013.

9. Belgium

Televoting: 12  - Juries: 3

Odds: Q 2.24 (exchange market), Q:2.25 -NQ: 1.57 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 55 (exchange) - 41 (betting site)

Estimation: This is where uncertainty starts. Hooverphonic's staging experience might be enough to secure a great Jury result. Televoting should be fine as well, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are saved by their Jury score.

Qualification is far from certain for the moment.

If the first rehearsal goes well and Q price is over odds, there is some value there.

10. Croatia

Televoting: 7  - Juries: 9

Odds: Q 1.63 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 60 (exchange) - 34 (betting site)

Estimation: I am confused with this one. I like and i thought that it would be faring better with public and juries but haven't proved itself so far. 

One that will come alive on stage. Hope that Albina will nail the vocals and staging is right...

One to watch out. 

11. Israel

Televoting: 10  - Juries: 11

Odds: Q 1.52 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 40 (exchange) - 26 (betting site)

Estimation: Far from written off. Could take Belgium's or Croatia's spot. 

The Euro Jury result is an overreaction to the videoclip, but I must respect that is a jury magnet.

If the rehearsals are bad or underwhelming a price around 2.25-2.40 for NQ will have some value.

12. Azerbaijan

Televoting: 11  - Juries: 13

Odds: Q 1.43 (exchange market), Q:1.33 -NQ: 3.25 (betting site)

Semi Winner: 100 (exchange) - 21 (betting site)

Estimation: It is time for Azerbaijan to get what it deserves. Minimum effort to change last year's entry, very repetitive and unispired.

It does has its crowd and Azerbaijan always works with Juries so it is still in for the qualification.

Personally I have already bought the NQ at 3.25.

13. Ireland

Televoting: 13  - Juries: 14

Odds: Q 2.7 (exchange market), Q:2.37 - NQ: 1.53  (betting site)

Semi Winner: 60 (exchange) - 101 (betting site)

Estimation: And now to the entries that have very very slim chances to qualify. It is just a hunch that Irish staging will fail to lift the song and the live version will be much inferior to the studio version. 

Just a personal opinion and we have to wait just one more day to see what will happen.

There could be value in both outcomes depending on which way the rehearsal will go.

14. Slovenia

Televoting: 15  - Juries: 12

Odds: Q 4.00 (exchange market), Q:4.33 - NQ: 1.20  (betting site)

Semi Winner: 120 (exchange) - 201 (betting site)

Estimation: Here the chances are even slimmer but with a very good Jury result and some friendly votes it could happen.

Still find the song dull and it takes forever to go to climax. 

Running order is not helping either. 

It could be a Q fun bet if after rehearsals the Q price reaches double digits.

15. Australia

Televoting: 14  - Juries: 16

Odds: Q 3.70 (exchange market), Q:3.25 - NQ: 1.33  (betting site)

Semi Winner: 120 (exchange) - 151 (betting site)

Estimation: We are now entering to the region of impossible. 

Quirky entry, live on tape and a country from a different continent is a leave your hopes out of the door and enter combination.

It might get some sympathy televote and Juries will have a selected version to judge but still not being there is a handicap.

The 1.33 for the NQ is actually decent.

16. North Macedonia

Televoting: 16  - Juries: 15

Odds: Q 4.20 (exchange market), Q: 5.50 - NQ: 1.12  (betting site)

Semi Winner: 120 (exchange) - 201 (betting site)

Estimation: Might have a higher score with Juries, but it is still a very dull song and I struggle to see how it can score more than 50-60 points for the best-case scenario.

Finally, let's talk about betting

I will have a book for the Contest of 1000 units. (200 for each SF + 600 for the Final)

The units won after each Sf can be used either for the next SF or the Final ( eg if SF1 returns are 350 units, these could be added to my bets in SF2 or Final).

So far I have only given a tip for SF2 - Denmark Q - 2.40 - 25 units

Today I will add another small bet for SF1 - Azerbaijan NQ - 3.25 - 40 units

I will be watching the rehearsals carefully and in the next few days I will be adding more tips. 

Eurovision is starting!!!