Monday 12 April 2021

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 15. Ukraine

 

15. Ukraine

Qualifying Record: 11/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/3

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/12 for 15th slot, 8/12 for the penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 11 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 NQ for 15th slot, 4 Q for penultimate slot





Last man standing! The only country with a perfect record and more than 10 SFs under its belt. That is a heavy burden especially when opting for an alternative entry.

Go_A is definitely not everybody's cup of tea, mixing electro and folclore elements, but they definitely have something to offer to the contest. I personally preferred the first version of Shum but the entry retains its dynamic. 

Do Juries and viewers get it or will it sink a la Conan Osiris? 

Running order in a different SF would be ideal, performing at the penultimate slot, but maybe not this time with the big favourite coming after. 

Personally I see Ukraine qualifying.

Will qualify because...it deserves it and the contest needs alternative proposals for alternative audiences. It definitely has quality and hopefully will get points from both constituencies.

There is some eastern Europe love to the SF.

Will not qualify because...It sounds eerie and it might be off putting for many. 

Malta is performing after that.

Realistic expectations for the Semi: 7th - 12th



Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Portugal 19' (NQ), Slovenia 18' (Q), Montenegro 16' (NQ)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: 15th place has 3 podium finishes, including a win.

 The penultimate slot has just a second place in podium but both are very strong in Televoting. The other positive note for Ukraine is that from the 10/12 of Televoting in penultimate slot, in all of them the pimp slot qualified as well. From these 10 times only once the penultimate finished above the pimp slot!

What happens next...: If Ukraine makes it to the final, breaking to the left half will be the ultimate goal. Top-10 could be within reach if they manage to create a momentum or a hype after the SF. I have a theory that if Russia is also in the Final it will work in favour of Ukraine, posing the dilemma for the ex Soviet juries of who's good and who's bad. 

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 8th - 15th




Some More Data: Ukraine has never performed better with Juries in the 50/50 era, SF included! That is an impressive record that will probably continue this year. 

They havent't landed in Top-10 in their last two participations which is their longest streak! Impressive!










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