Thursday 29 April 2021

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 17. Denmark

 

17. Denmark

Qualifying Record: 10/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/9 for 17th, 11/12 for the pimp slot

Current Country Streak: 3 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q for 17th, 5 Q for pimp slot



If there is a country, that got a clear advantage when the running order of the SFs was revealed, that is Denmark. Is this a favour being repaid or something like that? We will never know. It would have made more sense to place Denmark somewhere between 10th-12th to break apart the Snooze vision entries.

And just like that, a written off entry is back in business.

Fyr Og Flamme's entry is a guilty pleasure! A tribute to the late 70's and 80's Danish Eurovision entries. It is pure fun, and it has that amateurish staging that kind of works for it. In a year we need fun and entertainment more than any other year, Denmark deserves to be in the Final. 

It is very marginal though. I have the impression that if it does not qualify, it will be awfully close to the bottom.

Will qualify because... it is the Pimp Slot; it is fun and has that melody that sticks in your head.

 The most authentic of all the 80's tribute entries of this year.

Iceland, Latvia, Estonia will show some love.

Denmark knows the dark arts of how to qualify as 10th.

Will not qualify because...I don't know if public and Juries will get it. 

Juries will probably bury it.

It is starting just after the hot favourite. If Switzerland gets its staging right, people will be talking about Gjon's Tears when Denmark is on stage.

Realistic expectations for the Semi:  8th - 12th



Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? San Marino 19' (Q), Israel 17' (Q), Belgium 16' (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: 17th slot was also a pimp slot twice in the past, with 2 qualifications both as 8th. Both these entries (Poland 15' and San Marino 19') struggled with Juries (16th and 13th), both finished 4th with Televoting. 

Pimp Slot in general has 11/12 qualifications, with Televoting having 10 Top-6...

Betting Tip: This is my first tip for the year. (my Book will be 1000 units in Total, 200 for every SF and 600 for the Final - Units earned from the 1st SF can be added to the bank for the 2nd SF and Final, the same with the 2nd SF)

Denmark Q @ 2.40 - 25 units


What happens next...: This will be very marginal, but if Denmark qualifies to the Final, it would be an ideal opener. Its presence could affect the chances of the other ambitious Scandi-Baltic entries (call me Iceland, Norway, Lithuania) stealing some Jury and Televoting points here and there. 

I reckon that producers won't be that kind with them for a second time and they will be used as a filler between two better entries.

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 15th - 22nd




Some More Data: Denmark has the potential to be a televoting magnet and secure a result on the left-hand side of the board. If they can avoid a Bottom-5 with Juries, then Top-15 is within reach.












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