Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 3. Czechia

 

3. Czechia

Qualifying Record: 3/8

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 5/12

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 NQ

Czechia is the country that has taken the biggest advantage of the 50/50 voting system. All three qualifications happened the last four years but the most impressive fact is the Zig-Zag tactic that Czechia follows, sending entries that are relying once in Juries and once in Televoting! And the tactic pays off.

Sticking to the strategy, it's Televoting's time this year and Benny Cristo is ready to shake the room. Omaga  has a strong hook, and this is the entry that will reflect better the psychological mood of this year's Eurovision. 

Performing third is a noticeably big disadvantage and most of the punters has this one written off, but I do think it has the potential to be 'Golden Boy' 2021, an entry that pre-rehearsals had no chance but came alive on stage. 

It's my personal choice for the Top-10 entry that came out of nowhere.

Will qualify because... it is funny, catchy and it is the kind of song that Europe needs for a Saturday night party.

Will not qualify because... running order is the worst possible. 

The first half is full of entries that have the potential to qualify. 

Realistic expectations for the Semi: I will die by the sword, 5th-8th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? There is not a similar kind of song in that order, the closest comparison is Israel 15' in a different running order though.

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Recently is used to dump the weakest entries that have no chance, though back in 2018 both entries qualified from there (Albania, Serbia). Juries tend to score better with 6/12 Top-10.

What happens next...: If Czechia qualifies that will be an amazing achievement by itself. Draw will be crucial for its placing. I have already placed a bet for Top-10 and for the win (good for trading in case it qualifies).

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: Bye bye world, 8th-15th.

Some More Data: Czechia has one of the most intriguing charts. The proof that momentum and history does count. If I wanted to be a contender next year this is how I would want my previous results to look like. 

They only thing they need is to balance a bit more their entries. The results they have achieved with those discrepancies are impressive.