Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Albania

 

First Thoughts:

Albania is probably the trickier mystery to solve. Before the revamp, the song was a classic Albanian entry with a few western elements. 

After the allocation draw for the Semi - Final with Albania having almost all of its diaspora and friends voting to the same Semi - Final, I moved them to my qualifiers list.

Then we have had the revamp and the announcement of the running order and Albania went back to the borderline list.

The main problem with the revamp is that it is in English and Besa risks alienating herself from the diaspora risking for some extra points.

The running order is not a big problem for them because it is the diaspora that will decide for its fate. If they are behind Besa, the 45-55 points needed could be found. 

Albania is traditionally a borderline country when it comes to qualifications with the last five all coming in the 8th-10th threshold and I expect a similar result if they qualify. 

I do have have them in my NQ list but I have to wait for the Jury show to call this one.

If they make it to the Final though, a mid-table result could happen with a a decent amount of points coming from the Juries as well. 16th-22nd in that case.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 32.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Mid-table result in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 25-75 - Tot: 50-125

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I still cannot decide for Albania but I will go for the 11th-12th in the Semi - Final, paying the price of a very loaded Public vote oriented Semi - Final.

I am open to reconsider my position though by next week.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Switzerland

 

First Thoughts:

When everyone else zags then you must zig. This is Switzerland's mantra in Eurovision for the fourth year in a row, sending a slow tempo entry in a year where Televoting only Semi-Finals will make sure that very few of them will make it to the Final.

This is the most difficult mission for Switzerland this year. It will be more difficult to qualify to the Final than secure a left hand-side finish in the Final.

Running order might become a double edge knife. It can either stand out between the chaos of Croatia and the Israeli entry, if the latter is not staged properly or it could be the dull entry that everybody forgets.

My instinct says that Switzerland will make it, but I would not be surprised if they fail to qualify. 

There are many anti-war entries this year, but Remo's vocals will make sure that if and when in the Final, he will deliver and will lift 'Watergun' above the competition.

Switzerland has the skills to be a Top-5/6 with the Juries but Televoting-wise Top-10 is the absolute maximum.

A Top-5 result could be within reach with the perfect staging and a second half draw among televoting magnets. It must qualify first though...

It reminds me of...

Switzerland '22, '21, Ukraine '10

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 40/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5 in the Final

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

To Qualify with a 50% - 60% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

It will be a bumpy road for Switzerland in the Semi-Final, and they will need to wow the public with the staging to stand out and make it to the Final.

If they get there, with some luck a Top-10 finish is within reach and if the perfect storm hits, maybe a Top-5.

One step at a time...

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

Norway continues the saga of the pagan anthems that tend to perform well with the Televoters when coming from a Nordic nation.

Queen of Kings hopes to repeat the KEiiNO success and reach the Top-5.

Is it doable? Probably not but Norway is an almost certain Top-6/10 with Televoting that could be enough to secure a Top-10 finish. 

Juries tend to dislike this type of entries so I would not count in any votes there apart from the obvious Scandinavian friends.

The fact that the Semi Final is 100% Televoting gives an extra advantage to Norway that could finish in Top-3 and get a decent running order for the Final as well. 

It reminds me of...

France '22, Azerbaijan '21, Norway '19, Denmark '18 and '13

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5 winning the Televote

Worst case scenario:

12th-15th in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

99% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway sailing to the Final, finishing Top-3. They get a decent draw and land a Top-6/8 result being in Top-3 with the Televoters.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Ireland

 

First Thoughts:

Ireland's National Final packed in a weekly show has become one of my guilty pleasures during the NF season, however this format is destined to produce poor/average entries whose only goal is to qualify to the Final.

Ireland will try to break its bad streak (2018 the last presence in Final) and they have a mountain to climb.

Wild Youth could be a thing if we were in Eurovision '92-'95. We Are One is a classic anthemic teenage school band entry and this is not a good sign. There is an audience for this kind of songs but I heavily doubt is one that watches Eurovision.

The Allocation draw has not helped either with Ireland being drawn in the wrong part of the Semi Final (first) in the powerhouse loaded Semi Final (first). UK is also voting in the other Semi Final and assuming that the first half will produce maximum three qualifiers and knowing that Norway already has a stronger entry, Ireland needs to surpass three entries between Serbia, Portugal, Malta, Latvia, and Croatia...

It reminds me of...

Slovenia '22, Ireland '21, Denmark '16

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 25.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Marginal qualification and a Bottom-3 result

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify and finishes last in Semi - Final.

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

Not to Qualify with a 55% - 75% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland drawn to perform at slots #2 or #3 finishing in Bottom-3 of the Semi Final.

The one about the Voting changes and the Vidbir preview

 It was only last August when I shared some thoughts about the next Eurovision and one of my talking points was that a voting reform was needed, and I was somehow expecting it to happen. I was not surprised to see the viewers from non-participating countries earning the right to vote, it was a matter of time to happen especially now that more countries have withdrawn but going back to 100% televoting for the Semi-Finals was something that I would have never predicted, and the reason is quite simple.

EBU is not trying to solve the problem with rigged votes because that could have caused more withdrawals, they are just trying to win some time and make happy some of the countries that were struggling with the split votes.

But those of you that were following Eurovision back in the '00s will remember that there was another problem that will be coming back and that is the extra boost for the countries with diaspora (Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Greece, Serbia, Albania). Having two Semi-Finals instead of one like in the 2004-2007 and the allocation draw will smooth the problem a bit at least for a few years. 

The reason EBU goes back to that system is very simple. They are shuffling the deck to avoid having more withdrawals in the future especially in Eastern Europe. Had North Macedonia and Bulgaria known EBU's intentions, I am sure that they would think it twice before dropping out. Bosnia and Turkey could also be tempted to come back next year as well.

What do the voting changes mean for the Semi Finals?

It will be interesting to see if any of the national broadcasters will change the rules/format of their national final/selecting process.

ERT has already announced that they will be opting for a mix of a professional and a demoscopic 70-member jury.

NRK has also changed the format of MGP dropping the guaranteed places in the Final, the duals between artists and the second chance and will re-introduce an international jury in the Final.

We shall wait for more adaptations in the following weeks.

During the 2016-2022 split voting system era, in a total of 12 Semi-Finals, 18 songs were saved by the televoters and 14 were saved by the Juries. Countries with a poor qualifying record get a chance to risk more and achieve a better result. Some of them could get away with it and qualify to the Final, hopefully not dropping the quality level that could already drop because of the smaller number of participants. At the same time, the jury magnets will have their chance to shine if they can attract enough points to qualify to the Final.

Running order suddenly becomes very important, with countries performing in slots #2 to #4 being in serious trouble. Slot #2 has 1/12 qualifications and slots #3 and #4 have 4/12. You need to reach slot #5 to find a winner and some decent podium results. The jurors are not there anymore to support and balance things. 

In the second half, only slots #10 and #11 have a negative qualifying record (5/12 both) so a second half draw means an almost automatic qualification. Needless to say, the later the better.

I would be curious to see if any of the 'usual suspects' will try to sabotage its televoting and rely on a 100% jury result...

Vidbir at the end of the month: Have we heard the winner already?

Having heard the songs, there is one that clearly sticks out and that is Jerry Heil's 'When God Shut the Door'.

 Krut's ' Kolyskova' is the underdog and I struggle to find another entry that could win the whole thing.

The talking point for the second year in a row will be again if Ukraine can/will win again and once again the answer is that is too early to call it.

Judging from the two and a half minutes audio, WGSTD in a normal year could have been a 5th-12th song, but again this is not a normal year and Ukraine is not getting the points based on meritocracy.

The war will be the main factor and assuming that hostilities will still be happening, Ukraine will still have the public's support. No one can predict if it will be in the same scale as last year, but let's not forget that Ukrainian diaspora exists throughout Europe and could single handedly secure the Televoting win. There are some friends and allies that will also support Ukraine and Juries again will be the turning point. 

Politics could secure a minimum of 100 Jury points and Ukraine starts the voting with a minimum of 350-400 points looking for the extra 100-150 points that will secure their win.

The Ukrainian win is currently trading @3.30 and has taken 73% of the total sum invested so far. The odds obviously are wrong for this time of the year and will not change my approach compared to last year.

Winner or not, Ukraine's unique situation creates opportunities elsewhere and the best time to invest on them will once again be during the first half of the Jury voting. Until them, I am bracing myself to see those 1.40-2.00 odds available after March...

Eurovision season is around the corner and posts will be posted more often from now on. 

Let's hope we will have a great year!

Eurovision 2022 - The Betting Book (final update)

 I should have created that post some time ago, but unfortunately, I have been busy with the previews for the Semi-Finalists.

I have posted some time ago my resolution for this year.

The book remains the same in terms of units (1000). 

The main difference is that instead of having 200 units for each Semi-Final and 600 for the Final, my split is 100 for each Semi-Final and 800 for the Final.

The reason I have decided to change strategy is that Semi-Finals tend to be drier in terms of opportunities and I was ending up going after long shots instead of trying to secure my returns.

Nothing changes with the returned units that could be used again in SF-2 or Final or both. 

Every time that I will be giving a tip, even if it is in a different post, this post will be updated, and I will be twitting with the link as well. 

I will also be posting the link in here with the full analysis and the reasoning for every tip that I give.

Good luck with all your bets and predictions! Let's start!

Semi-Final 1

Austria Lay @ 2.00 x 25 units (17.04)

Greece Semi-Final Winner @ 4.80 (trading companies) x 10 units (10.05)

Albania not to qualify @ 4.50 (Betfair Sportsbook) x 30 units (10.05)

Iceland to qualify @ 2.62 (trading companies) x 35 units (10.05)

Units invested: 100

Settled Bets: 276.7 units

Semi-Final 2

San Marino to qualify @ 2.30 x 25 units (23.04)

Romania not to qualify @1.80 x 55 units (27.04)

Ireland to qualify @ 4.00 x 20 units (12.05)

Belgium not to qualify @ 2.62 x 25 units (bet365 - 12.05)

Serbia to win the Semi-Final @ 26.00 x 5 units (12.05)

Poland to win the Semi-Final @ 5.50 x 20 units (it is available higher in certain betting companies) (12.05)

Units invested: 150

Settled Bets: 0 units

Final

Top Balkan Country Serbia @5.00 x 30 units (05.05)

Top Baltic Country Latvia@4.00 x 20 units (05.05)

Italy to win @ 26.00 x 50 units (Exchange, Smarkets) for all 4 (14.05)

Sweden to win @ 11.00 x 26.7 units (14.05)

Spain to win @ 23.00 x 125 units (14.05)

UK to win @ 10.50 x 125 units (14.05)

Netherlands to finish 8th or higher @2.00 x 200 units (bet365)

Spain to finish Top-4 @ 2.56 x 250 units (Exchange, Smarkets)

Spain to beat Sweden @ 2.62 x 100 units (bet365)

Finland to finish last @ 67.00 x 30 units (William Hill)

Belgium to finish last @ 14.00 x 20 units (Unibet)

Units invested: 976.7 units

Settled Bets: 1052 units

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 14. Poland...wants to wash the Jury failures to the River...

 Qualifying Record: 5/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 12. Estonia...hopes for a good result

 

Qualifying Record: 7/17

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 11. North Macedonia...is doing circles trying to qualify

 

Qualifying Record: 6/17

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 13. Austria...Halo and Goodbye?

 

Qualifying Record: 5/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 5. Slovenia...wants Disko back in fashion!

 

Qualifying Record: 6/17

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 2. Latvia...is now vegan!

 

2. Latvia

Qualifying Record: 5/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 3/14

Current Country Streak: 4 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 6 NQ 

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 1. Albania has a...Sekret

 

1. Albania

Qualifying Record: 9/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 3 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

The Eurovision year that will live in infamy...

 

The National Finals season is officially over, but the festive mood is missing the last few weeks. The events in Ukraine have casted a shadow over Eurovision as well.

It is exceedingly difficult for me to analyse Ukraine's chances in a song contest when there is an actual war happening there. I hope that the war finishes as soon as possible, and life can thrive again in a country that has suffered so much! 

Show me some patterns first!

It is now three years in a row, and four in the last five, that there is a different winner among Juries and Televoters.

Italy was the first winner that ranked 4th with Juries and a similar total to Netherlands in 2019 (5,        T-V:2nd - J:3rd). 

France had the same total as well (5, T-V:3rd - J:2) but lost because Televoting points tend to be higher compared to Juries' at least for the Top-5.

All three winners since 2018 won despite losing the Juries!

The breakdown of the last three Top-3

2021

1. Italy              J: 4th - TV: 1st

2. France          J: 2nd - TV: 3rd

3. Switzerland  J: 1st - TV: 6th

2019

1. Netherlands J: 3rd - TV: 2nd           

2. Italy             J: 4th - TV: 3rd           

3. Russia         J: 9th - TV: 4th

2018

 1. Israel            J: 3rd - TV:1st

 2. Cyprus         J: 5th - TV: 2nd

 3. Austria         J: 1st - TV: 13th

Breakdown of the Average Points in Total, Juries and Televoting (2014-2021) *

Total                    Juries                Televoting

1. 573.4 pts         1. 294.9 pts       1. 337.7 pts

2. 498.6 pts         2. 240.1 pts       2. 278.1 pts

3. 417.7 pts         3. 208.1 pts       3. 244.6 pts

Televoting offers a useful handicap of +30 points that helps secure the win. 

Finishing 3rd in Televoting has more value than finishing 2nd in Juries.

It will be interesting to see how this year will turn up, with most of the favorites being jury baits and a few televoting magnets that do not stand a chance with Juries. This might be the year that the Jury winner wins the trophy losing the Televoting. It would have happened in 2015 if the 50/50 system were applied with Sweden winning the Juries and finishing 3rd with Televoting.

Enough with the numbers and time to check the favorites.

1. Ukraine 2.70

That is a roller coaster ride! A different Vidbir winner, a voting scandal, a cancelled winner for political reasons, a Russian invasion and here we are with Kalush Orchestra representing Ukraine and leading the Winner's market!

I cannot imagine the odds they would have had Alina Pash been the representative of Ukraine.

They have reached odds on a few days ago but drifted slightly since then. Song-wise, Stefania is a nice song with the folk elements that Ukraine knows how to use to its favour. 

The market thinks that this is an almost certain winner given the circumstances. Punters assume that there will be a massive Televoting and some love from the Juries that can guarantee a landslide victory. 

My humble opinion: Ukraine's odds are a classic example of narrative fallacy. There are too many red flags out there to suggest that the victory is far from certain. Just to name a few:

- It has lost its national final.

- When Kalush Orchestra were announced, Ukraine drifted from 6.00-8.00 to +20 and only when the invasion started shortening again.

- It's not Jury-friendly! It will need at least 175-200 Jury points to secure the win and I struggle to see where they will find them.

- Kalush Orchestra will probably be live on tape. Having watched the tapes from last year is obvious that the quality of the staging will be inferior. Just remember Australia.

- Ukraine has confirmed its participation but things might change in the next few months. There is still a slim chance that Ukraine might withdraw.

- Sympathy votes can give you some extra points but cannot secure a win. If that were the case, Bosnia would have had back-to-back wins in 1993-1994.

- The narrative that Ukraine will win because of the war. Back in 2014 the narrative was that Conchita will not win because of the Juries, especially the Eastern European. In 2016 the narrative was that a sad song cannot win. In 2017, Salvador's facial expressions were quirky and would damage his televoting appeal. There are enough examples to support the argument that the Market does not get it always right, at least before rehearsals.

My point is that Ukraine has a nice song that is Top-10 worthy. The circumstances will boost its chances and with a great Televoting might be a Top-5 or even a Top-3 song but I fail to see it as a winner. A fair price would be 12.00-15.00

I do hope though that Ukraine is present on stage in May and receive the warm welcome and support that it deserves! It will be an iconic moment for Eurovision history.

2. Italy 5.00

Brividi appeared in the first night of San Remo and it never looked back. The whole National Finals season was a contest to find the song that could beat Brividi. 

I am not sure that we have found that song yet!

A very classy entry, which easily won the national final with the most quality. 

Italy is the first serious contender for a back-to-back win since Ireland back in 1992-1994.

My humble opinion: This is the one to beat! We need to wait for the three-minute version. I am not worried for the staging. The main concern for Italy is its Televoting appeal. Will it finish higher than the other sad songs/ballads that are in English? (Poland, Greece, Sweden etc).

Will the theme of the song about a gay couple break-up 'alienate' televoters?

If I had to choose a winner today, Italy would be my obvious choice, however I would not call it a certain winner yet. 

It's the only song that we already know its running order: #9. Italy has escaped #1-#6 that would have damaged their chances. #9 has not produced a winner or a podium finish in fact since 2013 when the producers are deciding the running order, but all the songs ranked in Top-10 apart from the 2 times that UK performed in that slot (2018-24th, 2021-26th). Sweden has finished 5th twice (2016,2019). In case more favorites are drawn to the first half, there is the easy fix to locate them #11 and #13 and use #8, #10 and #12 as fillers. 

The current odds are a bit short. The fair price is near double digits:8.00-10.00.

3. Sweden 7.60

The latest addition to the hot favorites club. Hold Me Closer was the wise choice for Sweden. It's the only song that could bring a good result for Sweden in an average Melfest year. 

Sweden's odds were @15-16 before the national final and shortened since then, trading @6.00-7.00 a few days ago. 

My humble opinion: 

 

     This is a pic tweeted a few days ago @eurovisionario. It shows the Top-5 favorites since 2014 the week after National Finals season is over. According to the odds, Sweden would have six Top-3 results plus a Top-5 in the last 8 years. In fact, only in 2015 overachieved winning the contest. 

Having a finished product at this time of the year, makes Sweden look a step ahead of competition. During rehearsals though, the other countries catch up and Sweden drops a few spots. 

I reckon that the same thing will happen this year as well. Hold Me Closer finished second with the Televote/App and this is a big red flag considering the weak field in Melfest.

The Juries always help and could guarantee the usual 175-225 points for Sweden.

However, Televoting is different story. The last time that Sweden received more than 200 televote points was in 2015 (if 50/50 system is applied, 279pts). There is a gradual decline in Swedish televotes year after year and the reason is authenticity. Swedish productions are slick, and they are rewarded by the jurors but at the same time lack the authenticity that is the current trend in the contest. 

Sweden holds the record with the biggest discrepancy between Juries and Televoting since 2018 (2nd and 23rd respectively) and the points ratio between the two constituencies is 2:1 in favour of the Juries since 2016. 

History does not predict the future, but I struggle to see Sweden finishing in Top-5 with Televoting and that is game over if you are aiming for the win. 

My current prediction is 4th-8th.

4. United Kingdom 18.50

Who would have thought that there would be a day that UK would be in a post about the Eurovision favorites? UK is finally back!

Spaceman is a proper entry that reflects the music industry of the country that represents. A sign that BBC cares about the contest and does try.

And now the million pounds question? Does UK have a chance to win the contest?

My humble opinion: 

Spaceman reminds me of J'ai Cherche' back in 2016. A decent effort from a Big-5 nation that was not even trying for a long time. They have similar odds as well.

The current odds are a classic over-reaction by the British punters. I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit odds later in the season. A fair price though is @ 50-70.

A feel-good song that is not a typical Eurovision entry and could get points both from Juries and Televoting. However, winning the contest is not within reach. 

8th-15th looks like the most probable scenario and Top-5 would be the absolute overachievement. 

What matters the most is the statement that BBC does this year to signal that is back and UK will be competing in the future.

5. Greece 23.00

Greece continues the tradition that started in 2019 and chose an artist from the Greek diaspora. Die Together is one of the many 'sad' songs of this year and many of them are in the first Semi Final as well.

The odds drifted slightly after Die Together was revealed but it has remained in Top-5.

My humble opinion: 

My main concern regarding Greece is the first minute of the song which is a make it or break it. Amanda will be singing alone with no music, and this is not an easy thing to do. 

Staging is the other key area. Fokas will be responsible for the staging providing some much-needed experience. This is one to watch out during rehearsals. 

My current estimation for Greece is the same with Sweden: 4th-8th.

Greece's best Jury result if 50/50 voting is applied back to 2009 is 10th that achieved last year. It will be better this year, unless there is a serious car crash in live, however I am not 100% sold on its televoting power. 

Greece has some solid allies that guarantee a certain number of points every year, however diaspora is absent for some time, since Greece stopped sending the classic ethnic-dance entries and Die Together is not one of those. 

Lastly, Die Together might have a negative impact as a song title, especially in the current socio-political climate. 

6. Poland 27.00

The last entry of the second sub-group of the favorites. When River was released, the odds reached single digits and Poland was leading the market for a few days. 

The price has drifted since the national final. Krystian Ochman's vocal abilities are unique, but his lack of charisma, has not convinced the punters that this is a winner.

My humble opinion: 

Poland should feel lucky that found the correct combination for its entry. A jury-magnet song by an artist that has the appeal to the Polish diaspora. 

On paper Poland could secure 200+ with both constituencies but I find it extremely difficult to reach the 500 points threshold. Staging will be crucial. 

My current estimation is 2nd-5th and the current odds have some value if we compare them with Sweden, UK and Greece. 

These are my first thoughts regarding the favorites. It is still early in the season to call a winner and for sure there will be more songs that will rise to the occasion later in rehearsals. 

I will post another article with my thoughts about the rest of the market next week. 

Feel free to share your thoughts about this year.

*2014 and 2015 had a mixed voting system, but the split results are available and offer more data to analyse.

My 2022 Eurovision betting resolution...

 

It is almost three years ago that I started Eurovision Bets and Pieces blog, and this will be the third contest that I will be covering in detail.

The one thing that I haven't analysed so far is the outcome of my bets and my predictions.

The reason is that I spent so much time thinking about the contest and analysing patterns, metrics, and results that when the contest ends, I feel so burned out that I stop everything related to Eurovision for several months.

This post will focus in two different areas: My predictive analytics and my betting tips and strategy.

Predictive Analytics: Semi Finals

In four Semi-Finals so far, 

I have a bad result (7/10) and a great result (9/10) in 2019 and,

two average (8/10) results in 2021. However, in both Semi-Finals I had placed the countries that did not qualify ninth and tenth and the ones that have qualified eleventh and twelfth.

 I am happy with that!

My biggest disappointment is obviously the first Semi-Final in 2017 where I failed to find the winner and get right any the rankings apart from sixteenth and seventeenth.

The second Semi-Final was a different story, failing to predict only Albania's qualification. Austria was my call (everyone has a bad day...) and had successfully called Netherlands the winner.

In 2021, I have correctly called Malta in Semi-Final 1 and had Iceland first and Switzerland second with the actual difference being three points. 

My prediction average to date is 8/10 which is decent.

Predictive Analytics: Grand Finals

The most important stat of all! I have successfully called both Winners! (2019, 2021).

Especially last year, I couldn't have asked for more! This was my forecast for Italy:

1. Italy 480 - 540 pts

J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts

Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality. 

Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.

The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.

For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.

I missed the Televoting win but was within the point range that I have predicted. And in fact, during the Juries' voting, Italy was trading @ 5.00-6.00.

Regarding the Top-4, I had 3/4 correct predictions in 2019 (had Azerbaijan instead of Russia) and 2/4 last year (overestimating Malta's and Ukraine's Televoting abilities and slightly underestimating France and Iceland that had them fifth and sixth). 

Having placed France fifth seems like a bad prediction, however I got right their Jury ranking and points range and slightly underestimated their televote, placing them fifth. I missed the points range just for 14 points. Overall, a great result as well. 

Top-10 is the other market that interests me with 7/10 correct predictions in 2019 and 9/10 in 2021! 

An acceptable average of 8/10 there as well.

In retrospect, things could have been better in 2019 but I have completely misread certain entries that could have helped me being closer to the results. 

2021, on the other hand has been better, nearing perfection. 

And now the most interesting part...

Betting Strategy and Tips

That's the part where there is so much room for improvement. 

In 2019 I had a book of 500 units, 100 for each Semi-Final and 300 for the Final. The returned units could be re-invested on Semi-Final 2 and Final.

As a result, my book looked like this:

Semi-Final 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Units invested: 100

Units Returned: 40

Predictions %: 1/5 - 20%

Semi-Final 2

Armenia NQ: 20 units @2.50

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Units invested: 140

Units Returned: 89.4

Predictions %: 2/4 - 50%

Final

Winner W/O Netherlands: Switzerland - 189.4 units @ 3.25

Top-4 Italy: 50 units @ 3.50

Top-4 Switzerland: 100 units @ 1.83

Top-10 Belarus: 20 units @ 12.00

Top Nordic Country: Norway 10 units @ 6.50* 

To Finish Last: Denmark 10 units @ 51.00

To Finish Last: Czechia 10 units @ 67.00

* Sweden finished higher but because of the Belarussian Jury chaos, Norway was ranked 5th for a few days and betting companies have already settled the bets

Units invested: 389.4

Units Returned: 423

Predictions %: 3/7 - 42.9%

2019 Total Units Invested: 629.4

Units Returned: 552.4

Predictions %: 6/16 - 37.5%

ROI: -12.23%

Last year, my book consisted of 1000 units, 200 for each Semi-Final and 600 for the Final. The returned units could be used again in Semi-Final 2 and the Final.

My book looked like this:

Semi-Final 1

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 3.68 - 20 units

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units

Units invested: 200

Units Returned: 264.6

Predictions %: 2/4 - 50%

Semi-Final 2

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

Units invested: 200

Units Returned: 0

Predictions %: 0/4 - 0%

Final

Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units

Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units

Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units

Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units

Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units

Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units

Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units

Units invested: 791

Units Returned: 1079.5

Predictions %: 3/7 - 42.9%

2021 Total Units Invested: 1191

Units Returned: 1344.1

Predictions %: 5/15 - 33.3%

ROI: 12.85%

The accumulated totals for the two years are the following

Semi Finals

Total Units Invested: 540

Units Returned: 394

Predictions %:  5/17 - 29.4%

ROI: -27.04%

Finals

Total Units Invested: 1180.4

Units Returned: 1502.5

Predictions %:  6/14 - 42.9 %

ROI: 27.29%

Totals

Total Units Invested: 1720.4

Units Returned: 1896.5

Predictions %:  11/31 - 35.5 %

ROI: 10.24%

The elephant in the room...

It is obvious that my Semi-Final tips are suffering, and the main reason is the long shots that I am after. The market and the punters have evolved. There are still opportunities out there but apart from a few coin tosses, it is rare to find odds over 2.50 for a qualification or non-qualification the day of the Semi-Finals.

The value lies in the rehearsals where punters and market are still trying to figure out the dynamics of the songs and staging

On the other hand, one extra winning bet (Albania '19, Denmark '21 the closest calls) would be enough to break even predicting just 6/17 tips correctly.

The Finals are proving to be more successful securing a 27.3% ROI. I can still see room for improvement though. I have two similar lost bets in consecutive years, which have cost me 289.4 units (2019: Winner W/O Netherlands - Switzerland, 2021: Televote Winner Ukraine). 

Both were overreactions to the momentum that these two countries were gaining because of the charts and the views the day before the Final. 

The silver lining again, is that one more bet (i.e. Ukraine Top-4, lost for 14 points) would have increased ROI from 10.2% to 21.3%.

I must note that the suggested odds in my tips are always for betting companies and not for the exchange market, knowing that the latter is not available everywhere. That means that those of you who bet in the exchange could get better odds and returns.

What happens next? My strategy for 2022

It is time to implement some changes to improve my winning percentage and my ROI. It is difficult to align 100% my personal book, which is open for more than two months with the tips that I give the days of the Semi-Finals and Final. 

My book is healthier, and I want that to be reflected on my tips as well.

I have decided to keep the same number of units for my book as last year and that is 1000. However, I have decided to reduce the units available for each Semi-Final from 200 each to 100. 

That means that the available units for the Final will be 800. 

I will still re-invest units won from Semi-Finals if needed to Semi-Final 2 and Final.

I will try to reduce my tips from 15/16 to 10/12 for the whole season.

Finally, I will introduce the Early Bird tips. That means tipping something before or during the rehearsals for a fraction of my final investment (could be 25 units for Semi-Finals, 50-100 units for the Final). 

To do that, I will create a post with my book, open and updated throughout the season. Every time that a tip is added I will be tweeting it so make sure you follow me on Twitter for the latest updates.

There are only a few days left for the National Finals season to finish. My posts will be more frequent from now on, starting next week with a first look to the Winner's market.

Eurovision 2022: Semi Final 1: First thoughts and facts

 

What's another year! The allocation draw for the Semi Finals happened yesterday and the count down for Eurovision 2022 has officially started!!!

We only know Bulgaria's song so far but statistically and history wise this is considered the strong SF of the year. 

Checking the countries' record in the 50/50 era (2016-2021), this SF has 12/18 countries with a positive Qualifying record.

It also contains 6/10 SF winners of the same era and the most impressive fact is that Ukraine that has the best average ranking has not won a SF even though it won the trophy back in 2016!

Now to the less fortunate. Five countries have a negative qualifying record. Three of them will perform in the first half (Latvia, Switzerland, Slovenia) and three in the second (Croatia, Iceland). Taking in consideration the momentum, Latvia and Slovenia are the ones to be in trouble and they will need to put some extra effort to qualify. 

I will post some voting patterns later in the season but for the moment I will just post some rankings with the qualification records, current streaks and the Ranking averages (Total-Juries-Televoting) just to have an idea 

Current Qualification Streak

1. Ukraine 12 Qs

2. Netherlands 4 Qs

3. Bulgaria 4 Qs

4. Norway 4 Qs

5. Albania 3 Qs

6. Switzerland 2 Qs

7. Russia 2 Qs

8. Iceland 2 Qs

9. Greece 2 Qs

10. Moldova 1 Q

11. Lithuania 1 Q

12. Portugal 1 Q

13. Slovenia 1 NQ

14. Denmark 1 NQ

15. Armenia 2 NQ

16. Austria 2 NQ

17. Croatia 3 NQ

18. Latvia 4 NQ

Qualification Record in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Bulgaria - Netherlands 4/4

3. Ukraine 3/3

4. Norway 4/5

5. Russia 3/4

6. Portugal 2/3

7. Albania - Moldova - Lithuania - Denmark - Austria - Greece 3/5

13. Armenia 2/4

14. Switzerland - Slovenia - Croatia - Iceland 2/5

18. Latvia 1/5

Taking in consideration the momentum that Switzerland and Iceland are building in the last two contests and he fact that 12 more countries have a positive record (it could have been 13 if Croatia didn't miss the Final last year even though it finished in Top-10 both with Juries and Televoting), this is the toughest SF ever, at least in paper.

Average Total Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Ukraine 3

2. Bulgaria 4

3. Netherlands 4.3

4. Russia 6.3

5. Portugal 6.7

6. Norway 7.2

7. Moldova 8.2

8. Lithuania 9

9. Austria 9.4

10. Switzerland 9.6

11. Armenia 10

12. Greece 10.2

13. Denmark 10.6

14. Iceland 10.6

15. Albania 11.4

16. Slovenia 11.6

17. Croatia 12

18. Latvia 14

Average Jury Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Bulgaria 3.3

2. Netherlands 3.5

3. Ukraine 5

4. Russia 7

5. Portugal 7.3

6. Norway 8.2

7. Switzerland 8.4

8. Austria 8.8

9. Moldova 9.2

10. Armenia 9.5

11. Greece 9.6

12. Albania 11

13. Slovenia 11

14. Croatia 11.2

15. Lithuania 11.4

16. Iceland 11.6

17. Denmark 11.6

18. Latvia 12.2

Average Televoting Ranking  in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Ukraine 2.3

2. Bulgaria 5

3. Russia 5

4. Portugal 6

5. Norway 6.6

6. Netherlands 7

7. Moldova 7.2

8. Lithuania 8.2

9. Switzerland 9.6

10. Iceland 9.8

11. Greece 9.8

12. Armenia 10

13. Denmark 10.2

14. Croatia 10.4

15. Albania 10.6

16. Austria 10.8

17. Slovenia 12.2

18. Latvia 14.2

This is theoretically a televoting oriented SF and it will be very interesting to see which countries will rise to the occasion and which ones will flop.

Buonasera Signore e Signori!

 

This has been a very intense year indeed and tonight will be no exception.

Since the rehearsals started, we have seen numerous changes on the lead with Malta, France and Italy being up there followed by Switzerland and Iceland.

We have lost Bulgaria that was among the favourites and Ukraine has emerged as a dark horse and currently sits fourth in odds.

Now to the Million Dollar question! Who's going to win? This is a tough one! This year has been the most open since at least 2011. All songs in Top-5/6 have their vulnerabilities and that makes things very very interesting for tonight. Some of them are strong with Juries, other are strong with Televoting and some are average with both constituencies but could emerge in case someone else flops.

When I started writing about 2021, I had the feeling that in this post-covid Eurovision people are looking for a reason to party, forget for a night all the problems and difficulties of the past year and have fun. The SF results gave me the same impression with lighter, fun songs qualifying.

If there is one thing, I'm sure about is that tonight, we will have the smallest winning margin of the 50/50 voting era (currently 23pts - 2016). 

I have spent the last few days watching the different metrics (YouTube views, like-dislike ratio, charts, social media mentions ) and have taken in consideration all those numbers in my prediction/estimation for the Final.

Without further ado this is my 1 -26 prediction/estimation for tonight. Just a note for the points. The numbers might be inflated as I'm estimating the best-case scenario with each constituency

1. Italy 480 - 540 pts

J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts

Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality. 

Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.

The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.

For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.

2. Malta 430 - 510 pts

J: 1st/ 230-280 pts  - TV: 4th/ 200-230pts

Currently the third favourite @ 6.40. Will fight with France for the Jury win (@4.10 and has a big chance for the win if it makes it to the Top-4 with Televoting. That is Malta's biggest problem in general and starting in slot 6 does not help at all. 

Juries are ok to give the win to an entry that start early in the show, but Televoters are not that keen. Only Russia in 2019 managed to finish in Top-4...

The other tell that the running order suggests is that Malta has not won the Televoting in the SF and was not even second, otherwise the producers would have given them a better spot.

If they nail the Televoting though, there are in for the win, but it can equally flop and drop a few spots.

3. Switzerland 430 - 490 pts

J: 3rd/ 210-240 pts - TV: 3rd/ 220-250pts

The potential default winner. Switzerland has done its full circle in and out of the hot favourites circle. Currently is fifth in odds @ 13.00.

Juries will highly rank this one and will get some Televoting love. I might have overestimated its Televoting power, but it will be up there. If the winning threshold drops below 500 pts with four countries over 400pts each, Switzerland could benefit and win. 

Running order (11) suggests that did very well in SF.

Top-4 finish @ 2.10 - 2.25 is a safe bet.

4. Ukraine 410 - 470 pts

J: 8th/ 110-120 pts - TV: 1st/ 300-350pts

Our dark horse. During the SF on Tuesday Ukraine was trading @30-36! It has come a long way and the main reason is that it is charting everywhere, and the YouTube views and likes are massive. 

If the Jury score is better than the one above, brace yourselves for a surprise winner!

Winning the Televoting is currently @ 3.75 - 4.20 and Top-4 @ 1.80-1.95

The Win is currently @ 8.00-8.20

5. France 395 - 485 pts

J: 2nd/ 220-260 pts - TV: 5th/ 175-225pts

The second favourite now, though it has started drifting as of this morning. I have been sceptical about France since the first time that I have heard it. I do get its jury appeal, I do get its televoting appeal with certain demographics, but I do think that having it 5th is the super optimistic scenario for France. 

Being sandwiched between Lithuania, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan it helps it stand out, but people will still be talking about Ukraine when this is on.

It needs a landslide win with Juries to stand a chance.

6. Iceland 290 - 360 pts

J: 5th/ 150-180 pts - TV: 6th/ 140-180pts

Iceland using the live on tape has totally killed their momentum. People know that they are not live on stage and that might be off putting. They may score better with Televoting than my prediction, but 4th place is its ceiling. 

If you are a believer Top-5 is currently @ 2.74

7. Lithuania 190 - 220 pts

J: 12th/ 80-90 pts - TV: 7th/ 110-130pts

Lithuania has lost its momentum. Televoting can guarantee a secure Top-10 finish but wouldn't be surprised if it missed Top-10. 

8. Portugal 175 - 195 pts

J: 7th/ 125-135 pts - TV: 15th/ 50-60pts

The other late bloomer that might end up finishing in Top-10 and no one will be surprised.

Top-10 @ 1.90-2.08

9. Finland 165 - 185 pts

J: 13th/ 75-85 pts - TV: 9th/ 90-100pts

Another charts bloomer. YouTube views and like plus the charting suggest a strong televoting result that might guarantee a Top-10 finish. No value there though.

10. Russia 150 - 180 pts

J: 15th/ 50-60 pts - TV: 8th/ 100-120pts

Mamma Russia has the allies and the televoting power that can secure a Top-10 result.

If you believe in Russian Woman Top-10 is @ 2.75-3.00

I will continue with my 11-26 estimations just for the bragging rights before getting to the betting part of the post

11. Netherlands 150 - 180 pts

J: 6th/ 130-150 pts - TV: 22nd/ 20-30pts

12. San Marino 125 -145 pts

J: 18th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 10th/ 90-100pts

13. Belgium 130 - 145 pts

J: 9th/ 100-110 pts - TV: 19th/ 30-35pts

14. Sweden 120 -140 pts

J: 10th/ 95-105 pts - TV: 20th/ 25-35pts

15. Serbia 115 - 135 pts

J: 16th/ 45-55 pts - TV: 11th/ 70-80pts

16. Bulgaria 115 - 135 pts

J: 11th/ 90-100 pts - TV: 21st/ 25-35pts

17. Cyprus 110 -130 pts

J: 14th/ 55-65 pts - TV: 13th/ 55-65pts

18. Azerbaijan 95 -115 pts

J: 20th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 12th/ 60-70pts

19. Norway 90 - 110 pts

J: 19th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 14th/ 55-65pts

20. Greece 80 -100 pts

J: 17th/ 40-50 pts - TV: 16th/ 40-50pts

21. Albania 65 - 85 pts

J: 22nd/ 30-40 pts - TV: 17th/ 35-45pts

22. Moldova 65 - 85 pts

J: 21st/ 30-40 pts - TV: 18th/ 35-45pts

23. Israel 40 - 60 pts

J: 23rd/ 20-30 pts - TV: 23rd/ 20-30pts

24. Spain 25 - 40 pts

J: 24th/ 15-25 pts - TV: 25th/ 10-15pts

25. Germany 20 - 30 pts

J: 26th/ 5-10 pts - TV: 24th/ 15-25pts

26. UK 15 - 25 pts

J: 25th/ 10-15 pts - TV:26th/ 5-10pts

Betting Time

The SF bets could have been better, especially SF2, but the fact that I had 8/10 in both SFs with the 9th and 10th spots being missed and 11th and 12th making it is a proof that I'm heading to the right direction.

The results so far

SF - 1

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

SF - 2

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units - Lost

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units - Lost

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units - Lost

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units - Lost

Units played: 200

Units returned: 0

So, I have 2 open bets from SF-1 and 191 units to add to the 600 that were reserved for the Final, so 791 units in total.

And here we go

Final 

Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units

Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units

Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units

Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units

Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units

And my fun bets

Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units

Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units

Units played: 791

Open Units: 25

For those following the bet on Italy to win, if you have the patience and wait for the Jury voting, I reckon you will find it at a better price.

Good luck with your bets tonight. Thank you all for your support and trust during the whole Eurovision season!

I will try to beat the post Eurovision depression by posting about the results and my betting outcome.

The One That Will Drive The Punters Mad...

 

The first Semi Final is already history! No shocker qualifiers or non-qualifiers there! 

Romania was heading for a car crash and Televoting did not save them. 

Croatia was the biggest surprise, thought it failed to lift off even though it started the SF being ahead of Israel and Azerbaijan. 

Regarding Israel, that was the Jury save of the Semi and Azerbaijan must have sailed with Televoting. 

But we are here to check the second Semi Final so let's move on.

The qualifying odds suggest that we have nine certain qualifiers, a 50/50 entry, two outsiders and five hopeless entries. Will be it be that easy? I beg to differ...

1. Iceland (+1)

Juries: 2

Televoting: 1

Estimated Points: 260-305

The contest has already finished for Dadi and Gagnamanid before it has even started. A positive covid test and the dream is over. Will that affect their chances? Probably on Saturday, but I do expect some sympathy votes going their way. 

Winning the SF @.5.50-6.00 has some value if you favour the sympathy vote scenario.

2. Switzerland (-1)

Juries: 1

Televoting: 3

Estimated Points: 245-275

Tough week for Switzerland that came back on track after the Jury show. They are back in Top-4 and Gjon's can definitely with the Jury in this SF. He needs it for a good running order in the Final.

Price too short for the SF Win or Top-3

3. Greece (+3)

Juries: 4

Televoting: 4

Estimated Points: 190-220

Stefania is carrying this song and she has lots of charisma. Not sure if it can make it to the Top-10 in the Final but is sailing there. 

4. San Marino (+1)

Juries: 8

Televoting: 2

Estimated Points: 180-210

FloRida is in RotterDam and Adrenalina is high! This is a certain qualifier and a Top-3 finishing in the SF could be within reach. Currently is @ 3.85 and it has some value.

5. Bulgaria (-2)

Juries: 3

Televoting: 7

Estimated Points: 160-190

The biggest enigma of this SF. Beautiful staging and vocals from Victoria, it is failing on metrics so far. Qualifying won't be a concern and it remains to be seen if this one will be along the contenders, or it will start drifting as of tonight.

6. Finland (-2)

Juries: 7

Televoting: 5

Estimated Points: 155-175

Great running order, has its crowd and is safe as well. There is no value in any of the available bets though.

7. Serbia (+2)

Juries: 9

Televoting: 6

Estimated Points: 120-145

Looking now at the Q price of this one (1.70) just before the rehearsals started and the current one (1.26) and you can see the value that was hidden there. NQ now would be a shock.

8. Portugal (+3)

Juries: 6

Televoting: 12

Estimated Points: 105-125

The biggest improvement of this SF. Great staging, jury friendly and it looks like it's sailing to the Final. 

For those of you who find the song very boring or dated, not to qualify is @ 4.50 and given Portugal's record there is some value there. Just two ago Sweden's NQ was @4 and Sweden had 10/11 Qs when Portugal has 4/13...

9. Austria (-1)

Juries: 5

Televoting: 13

Estimated Points: 105-125

Portugal has taken some of its jury glory, but Austria has a nice simple staging and just before the amateurish Polish entry and Moldova's madness it stands a chance. There is only one case of a country that failed to qualify to the Final, being Top-5 with Juries (Malta) and that makes Austria's odds look attractive.

This one was already tipped @ 2.30 before rehearsals started.

10. Denmark (+3)

Juries: 11

Televoting: 8

Estimated Points: 100-125

Most people have this one written off but...Having the Pimp slot entry @2.50-3.00 is value in the long term. 

Is it amateurish? Yes! 

Is it a bit cheesy? Yes!

But they are having fun on the stage, and they manage to create that 80's-euro pop vibe. This is the year that people need happiness and Denmark has the package.

11. Albania (+3)

Juries: 10

Televoting: 11

Estimated Points: 85-105

Odds suggest that Albania will be among the 10 qualifiers. This is a borderline for me, and I do have a theory for it. Gjon's that represents Switzerland is of Albanian origin and I do have a suspicion that the Albanian diaspora will vote for him. Anxhela was born in Albania but comes from the Greek minority there. 

I'm not trying to create a diplomatic incident or anything, but Gjon's is considered the unofficial Albanian representative.

Not touching this one, but in my opinion, there is some value in NQ.

12. Moldova (-5)

Juries: 13

Televoting: 10

Estimated Points: 75-95

If the producer was any other person in the world, Moldova would be a certain non-qualifier, but we are talking about Kirkorov, and he has the power to move things. They tried to play it safe for the Juries where Natalia failed to deliver and there is not much going on for the viewers. 

Currently Q is @2.00-2.25. I might reconsider and place a bet on this one tonight during the SF. 

13. Czechia (-3)

Juries: 14

Televoting: 9

Estimated Points: 75-95

I had high hopes for this one, but Benny didn't seem to bother much. I still believe that it will be Top-10 with Televoters but Juries must have buried it. 

There is a huge discrepancy between exchange market and bookies for its Q odds (5.60 vs 3.75). Will be watching the public reactions in social media for this and maybe place a live bet (I strongly recommend checking tellystats, a social media tracker that provides particularly useful information during the live shows)

14. Estonia (-2)

Juries: 12

Televoting: 15

Estimated Points: 50-75

And we are now entering officially to no man's land. The running order of this one has been the decisive factor. Had it been in the second half or slightly later, it would have a chance. Coming after San Marino does not help at all.

There is no value in the NQ odds.

15. Latvia (-)

Juries: 16

Televoting: 14

Estimated Points: 35-55

Samanta is living her dream and is on stage. She kept to herself and went all the way. Can that translate to a qualification? I'm afraid that no.

Last place in SF is @ 3.70 but she has her fans, and she can get some televoting love.

16. Georgia (-)

Juries: 15

Televoting: 17

Estimated Points: 35-55

This song deserves better, but Eurovision is not the correct platform for Tornike and his style. He came to do his thing which is admirable, but he does not connect with the audience or the juries. 

Finishing last @ 2.50 is too short for me.

17. Poland (-)

Juries: 17

Televoting: 16

Estimated Points: 25-45

There is a song every few years that I can't wait to see during the SF just to make sure that this is the last time I will be listening to it ever. This is the one for 2021!

Last place is @ 2.40 currently but there is no value either just in case a part of Polish diaspora decides to vote for it. 

Betting Time

I will start with what happened in SF1. 

These were my bets

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 ( 3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

These 191 units will be added to the 600 units for the Final as there is no reason to add them to my bets today.

For SF2 I have already tipped

Denmark Q - 2.40 - 25 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Austria Q - 2.30 - 50 units

meaning that I have 100 units left. 

I am topping up Denmark Q - 2.50 with an extra 25 units and the new total will be 

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

I will do the same with Austria adding Austria Q - 1.83 - 50 units and this is the main bet for the day

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia stays the same 

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

And finally my last 25 units will go the other value bet that I have mentioned 

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

Portugal and Denmark have long term value. I am happy to lose them both, knowing though that the odds were both on my side.

Austria is my main bet and has many similarities with Belgium. Quality is always recognized in this contest.

So my book for SF2 looks like this

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

New Total: 0

Open Units: 200

Good luck with your bets tonight!

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