Eurovision 2019: 2nd Semi Final - Tips/ Eurovision Challenge

We are almost there! After an underwhelming 1st Semi-final is time for the big guns to show up on stage. There are at least 6 songs that can end up in Top-10 and probably 3 in Top-5. You can find the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings here.

I do believe that it will be a marginal Semi like the first one but with more secured spots. There is a group of 8 countries that one way or the other will qualify to the final and there is another group of 4 countries that will fight for the 2 remaining spots. Fortunately, we don't have San Marino in this Semi...

1. Netherlands (-)

Televoting: 1
Juries: 2

Duncan is on a mission. Technical difficulties have been surpassed and is getting ready for the big night on Saturday.

2. Sweden (+2)

Televoting: 4
Juries: 1

The other hot favorite is ready to shine. Sailing to the final and ready to push Netherlands to its limits.

3. Switzerland (+3)

Televoting: 2
Juries: 4

Lost the momentum before the rehearsals started and seems like it was ages ago when it was among the favorites. That doesn't mean that it lacks the quality for a good finishing.

4. Russia (-2)

Televoting: 6
Juries: 3

Eurovision crowd was expecting something more spectacular. Sergei is vocally perfect; Russia is qualifying but the song does not have winning vibes.

5. Azerbaijan (-)

Televoting: 3
Juries: 6

The first song that built momentum during rehearsals. Going to the final and almost secured Top-10, it's a matter of draw to see if it can do better than that.

6. Malta (-3)

Televoting: 7
Juries: 5

Will be among the pack with the countries that will fight for a Top-10 spot in the final. Had it higher but the clips that I saw lack the energy that is needed for an up-tempo song.

7. Norway (+1)

Televoting: 5
Juries: 9

Televote will be there (no pan intended) to help it sail to the final. Few weeks ago, was thinking that it could be a shock non qualifier but doubt it now.

8. North Macedonia (-1)

Televoting: 8
Juries: 7

The last of the songs that I strongly believe that they will qualify. It does deserve to qualify after all these years. Keeping it simple is the key.

9. Austria (+3)

Televoting: 12
Juries: 8

It's on my list, I want it to qualify but that 12th spot with televoting is the minimum for its qualification. I have liked everything that I have seen so far and will risk saying it's qualifying.

10. Denmark (-)

Televoting: 11
Juries: 10

I have 3 countries with the same total (21) and decided to give the 10th spot to Denmark because of the allies that are on the semi (Sweden, Norway, Latvia, Lithuania). It's a feel-good song and that is always a plus.

11. Romania (+3)

Televoting: 9
Juries: 12

Another tough call. Nice concept but don't know if it will be accessible for juries and televoting. Maybe will be lost in between. Not written off but has a mountain to climb.

12. Armenia (-3)

Televoting: 10
Juries: 11

The running order is the main problem for Armenia with all these favorites coming after it. Slightly aggressive as well. I may be proved wrong with that, but this is my call.

13. Lithuania (-)

Televoting: 13
Juries: 14

In a different year or in a weaker semi this could stand a chance. Tonight, must run away from the lions and the race is not fair.

14. Albania (-3)

Televoting: 14
Juries: 13

Another missed opportunity for Albania. Nice song that feels somehow lost on stage. Running order doesn't do any favors as well.

15. Moldova (+1)

Televoting: 15
Juries: 16

Tried every trick to improve their song but unfortunately there is not much of a song there. Best luck next year.

16. Latvia (+1)

Televoting: 18
Juries: 15

Too lethargic to qualify and way too repetitive. Has some allies that are not able to save it.

17. Ireland (-)

Televoting: 16
Juries: 18

One of the few songs that could not be saved not even from the pimp slot. And we are not in 2022 to create a pan with the title (remember 'Millenium of love'?)

18. Croatia (-)

Televoting: 17
Juries: 17

I am happy that after tomorrow I won't have to listen to that song again.


And now is the time for my tips. As I have already mentioned to my previous posts, my book is split in 100 units for each Semi and 300 units for the final. The units that are won on each semi can be used to the 2nd Semi and Final. I have a return of 40 units from Poland's NQ and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi.

Last week I gave my first tip regarding Semi 2

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Semi 1 New Total : 80 units

I have 120 (80 remaining + 40 from Semi 1) more units to bet and will invest them as following

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Open Bets: 140 units

New Total for Semi 2: 0 units

Just Albania would be enough to bring almost my entire investment back. The maximum return is 290.2 units.

Eurovision Challenge!!!

Having so many friends and people that watch the contest but do not bet regularly, I decided to create a Game/ Challenge to keep them interested. I call it the Eurovision Challenge and is very simple. I have estimated that if  I place an original bet of 10 pounds/euros/dollars on the 1st Semi at a price around the 1.50-1.70 area and keep betting the winnings on the next semi and then final and the semi etc, in 5 years time and if all the bets are successful, that amount can go up to 10.000 pounds/euros/dollars!!! Are you ready for it?

If the bet is lost, will start again with the same amount on the next contest. So here we go

Semi Final 1 - 2019: Poland NQ 10 x 1.90 = 19 

The first bet is won and we move to the 2nd round!!!

Semi Final 2 - 2019: Albania NQ 19 x 1.61 = 30.59

Good luck to everyone with your bets and let's have a great show!