So far I have spent most of the posts on the technical part of the contest and saw that this was something that was missing. My next few posts will focus on what I am expecting to see the next few days and will try to analyze the pros and cons of each song. I will review my power rankings again the days of the two Semi Finals and will start giving my first tips for the year at a certain point this weekend.
These are my personal thoughts and will try to present as many arguments possible. Feel free to disagree or argue with me. Once again grab your popcorn and enjoy.
1. Greece
Televoting: 1 - Juries: 1
Odds: Q 1.06 (exchange market), Q:1.05 -NQ: 9.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 3.00 (exchange) - 3.50 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Is one of the most interesting projects and has support both from fans and juries.
The most interesting Greek presence since 2013 with many allies on the semi.
Ideal running order
Will not qualify because...
Katerine keeps struggling with her vocals and the Greek delegation decides to stage an avant garde mess that leaves Juries and public indifferent.
Personal opinion: A sleeper so far that can step up if Katerine manages to control her vocals!
2. Cyprus
Televoting: 3 - Juries: 2
Odds: Q 1.05 (exchange market), Q:1.04 -NQ: 10.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 4.30 (exchange) - 3.50 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
It is the uplifting track of the semi.
Enough allies to support it
They have created a momentum the last 3-4 years
Will not qualify because...
Everybody thinks that is Fuego 2.0 and Cypriots did not even try to change it a bit
The contest is not transmitted for technical reasons to the Balkan region and Cyprus gets only a few points here and there by some western countries.
Personal opinion: Things in the final will be tougher but this is Cyprus' chance to build a momentum at the easiest Semi of the year.
3. Iceland
Televoting: 2 - Juries: 4
Odds: Q 1.13 (exchange market), Q:1.08 -NQ: 7.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 5.40 (exchange) - 5.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Will create the buzz needed and will be the talk of the town for the day and probably for the week.
We need more countries sending artistic projects to the contest
Will not qualify because...
Televoters and Juries find it too aggressive
Hattari perform BDSM sex acts on stage and EBU disrupts the airing and bans the song.
Mosad arrests Hattari upon arrival on Israel.
Personal opinion: Sailing to the final. One of the dark horses of the contest.
4. Serbia
Televoting: 5 - Juries: 3
Odds: Q 1.45 (exchange market), Q:1.33 -NQ: 3.25 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 70.00 (exchange) - 101 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Europe decides that has missed the classic Serbian ballads and starts a petition for Jeliko Joksimovic to return to the contest.
Enough Ortodox and ex Jugoslavian brothers to the Semi to give some support.
Good running order
Will not qualify because...
One more time Serbia fails to engage Juries and Televoters, ex Yugoslavian juries give them 0 points and they miss the final for a point.
Nevena wears something provocative that it is too much for a family show.
Personal opinion: On my first analysis for the semi a few weeks back i had the impression that Serbia will struggle to qualify, but the semi is friendly enough to give the boost needed and juries will give some love as well.
5. Czechia
Televoting: 4 - Juries: 7
Odds: Q 1.31 (exchange market), Q:1.28 -NQ: 3.50 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 34.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
A friend of a friend of a friend will vote for it.
The amateurish style that is televoting friendly and the coolness of the song are enough.
Will not qualify because...
This guy looks cool enough and I (the male televoter) don't like the guys that look cooler than me - I (the female televoter) find him too cocky and arrogant.
Czechia's bad history or lack of experience on staging.
Personal opinion: I personally don't like it, but who am I to judge a Eurovision entry? With a second half draw is a potential Top-10 finisher.
Betting wise: That 34.00 (26.00) Semi winner is a nice fun bet for a few units.
6. Portugal
Televoting: 6 - Juries: 5
Odds: Q 1.64 (exchange market), Q:1.53 -NQ: 2.37 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 16.00 (exchange) - 11.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
If Hattari can make it, why not Osiris? Brings something fresh to the contest.
Every spectator has a mobile phone and can relate to the verses of the song, if he/she/it can understand them (Commentators please explain the meaning of the title! You did it for Hattari)
Osiris realized that needs to do something for the staging and hired an external team to help.
Will not qualify because...
Stop the madness!
The dancer breaks his ribs in the middle of the song and the staging becomes messier.
Nike does not allow the song to be linked to their shoes and call for a boycott.
Personal opinion: Staging is the key but i do think that they will qualify one way or the other. The staging is the focus.
7. Slovenia
Televoting: 7 - Juries: 8
Odds: Q 1.36 (exchange market), Q:1.28 -NQ: 3.55 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 19.00 (exchange) - 9.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
These guys are the continuation of Lithuania 2018. If she, did it, they can do it.
No make-up, no complex staging just looking at each other. Keep it simple.
Juries and teens will love it.
Will not qualify because...
Televoters have fallen asleep after the first minute and woke up when Australia was on stage because of Kate Miller's shouting.
Personal opinion: One of my personal favorites this year. Has the potential to be the song that from nowhere finished 5th-6th in the final.
8. Belgium
Televoting: 8 - Juries: 10
Odds: Q 1.56 (exchange market), Q:1.50 -NQ: 2.50 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 24.00 (exchange) - 21.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
The Wallons know how to do it and have Top-10 Final rankings since 2013.
The quality of the song is enough for this slightly weak semi.
Jury magnet and teen friendly.
Will not qualify because...
Something is off like last year and fails to engage with the public.
Eliot is shaky with his vocals.
Personal opinion: It will be marginal. Needs to be as close to Top-10 in both constituencies.
9. Hungary
Televoting: 10 - Juries: 9
Odds: Q 1.33 (exchange market), Q:1.25 -NQ: 3.75 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 29.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Josi Papai has a charisma and people know him!
The quality of the song is enough to carry it to the final.
Will score better than Origo with the Juries
Hungary has 9 straight qualifications to the final and currently holds the longest streak!
Will not qualify because...
Will score worse with the Televoters than Origo.
Returning artists usually fail on the second time.
Personal opinion: After the first 6-7 spots, we have an open semi and Hungary has the know how to stage its songs.
10. Australia
Televoting: 13 - Juries: 6
Odds: Q 1.44 (exchange market), Q:1.36 -NQ: 3.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 19.00 (exchange) - 15.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
The love between Australia and Juries will last forever.
Aussies produce an amazing staging for their song.
Vocal abilities of Kate.
Will not qualify because...
Pop opera is not Europe's cup of tea! The joke has to stop.
This is the weakest so far Australian song and will struggle.
Personal opinion: Looking forward for the first rehearsal to see if there is some value at that NQ @3.00
11. Poland
Televoting: 9 - Juries: 11
Odds: Q 1.68 (exchange market), Q:1.57 -NQ: 2.25 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 100.00 (exchange) - 101 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Polish diaspora does it again. A song that will motivate Poles to vote for it.
Juries for the first time after many years give Poland a Top-10 finish with them.
Will not qualify because...
Most of the allies are on the other semi.
Too many novelty participants and Poland is the first in line.
Personal opinion: Not written off but will be marginal either way.
Odds: Q 1.68 (exchange market), Q:1.57 -NQ: 2.25 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 100.00 (exchange) - 101 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Polish diaspora does it again. A song that will motivate Poles to vote for it.
Juries for the first time after many years give Poland a Top-10 finish with them.
Will not qualify because...
Most of the allies are on the other semi.
Too many novelty participants and Poland is the first in line.
Personal opinion: Not written off but will be marginal either way.
12. Estonia
Televoting: 12 - Juries: 12
Odds: Q 1.59 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 34.00 (exchange) - 29.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Having a Swedish singer when the producer of the show is Swedish and is the one responsible for the staging of Storm says it all.
Will be the Calm between the Storm after Iceland and before Portugal
Will not qualify because...
Will look way to bland with all that madness around it.
Was there a song after Iceland and before Portugal? When?
Personal opinion: That 2.62 looks tasty!!!
13. Finland
Televoting: 15 - Juries: 13
Odds: Q 6.60 (exchange market), Q:4.50 -NQ: 1.16 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 70.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
A campaign called Bring Back the 90's House Music goes viral a few hours before the semi-final.
Darude fans vote massively.
Will not qualify because...
Would struggle to be a Top-10 in 1998 and cannot see how it can do better 20 years after its time.
Remember what happened to DJ Bobo, Las Ketchup, Cascada...
Personal opinion: I am impressed that ended so high on my power rankings!
14. San Marino
Televoting: 11 - Juries: 17
Odds: Q 2.88 (exchange market), Q: 2.37 -NQ: 1.53 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 100.00 (exchange) - 151.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Fans of the contest love Serhat and this is a classic cult/Kitch reminder of the late 90's early 00's.
Everyone can sing along Say Na Na Na
Pimp slot is a huge favor for them. San Marino needs to stay to the contest.
Will not qualify because...
Juries will kill it and won't do any favors to Serhat's vocals.
Slavko didn't make it back in 2017 and Serhat finished 12th but with a double score from the 10th spot.
Personal opinion: Will have a like Latvia's result in 2017 that had great odds for NQ just because of the pimp slot but finished last. Anything more than 1.70 for NQ is value for me!
15. Belarus
Televoting: 14 - Juries: 16
Odds: Q 3.05 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 90.00 (exchange) - 81.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Backing singers and dancers lift the song to a different level.
Russia decides to help the brothers from Belarus and hacks the televoting or takes the jurors of certain countries as hostages and sends doppelgangers in their place that vote for Belarus...
Will not qualify because...
The song is going nowhere with the Juries and will be difficult to finish in the Top-10 with televoting.
Personal opinion: Hopeless...
16. Montenegro
Televoting: 16 - Juries: 14
Odds: Q 11.00 (exchange market), Q:7.00 -NQ: 1.08 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 270.00 (exchange) - 151.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
All the other artists had a food poisoning and failed to show up for the Semi.
Will form a dodgy jury coalition with the other poor performers and thanks to the jury scores and some neighbor votes will qualify as 10th.
Will not qualify because...
This is an extremely poor try from Montenegro and even on a weak Semi this looks destined to fail.
Personal opinion: Montenegro must find a different formula for its selection process!
17. Georgia
Televoting: 17 - Juries: 15
Odds: Q 6.80 (exchange market), Q:5.50 -NQ: 1.12 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 180.00 (exchange) - 151.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
It has some allies that can secure a few juries and televoting points.
Will not qualify because...
Too aggressive, too messy, too shouty...
Personal opinion: Might avoid the last place but that is the only goal for this year.
And that's it for Semi Final 1. I am curious to see how this post will look like in 10 days' time. Let me know your thoughts and stay tuned for the next posts.
Odds: Q 1.59 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 34.00 (exchange) - 29.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Having a Swedish singer when the producer of the show is Swedish and is the one responsible for the staging of Storm says it all.
Will be the Calm between the Storm after Iceland and before Portugal
Will not qualify because...
Will look way to bland with all that madness around it.
Was there a song after Iceland and before Portugal? When?
Personal opinion: That 2.62 looks tasty!!!
13. Finland
Televoting: 15 - Juries: 13
Odds: Q 6.60 (exchange market), Q:4.50 -NQ: 1.16 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 70.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
A campaign called Bring Back the 90's House Music goes viral a few hours before the semi-final.
Darude fans vote massively.
Will not qualify because...
Would struggle to be a Top-10 in 1998 and cannot see how it can do better 20 years after its time.
Remember what happened to DJ Bobo, Las Ketchup, Cascada...
Personal opinion: I am impressed that ended so high on my power rankings!
14. San Marino
Televoting: 11 - Juries: 17
Odds: Q 2.88 (exchange market), Q: 2.37 -NQ: 1.53 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 100.00 (exchange) - 151.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Fans of the contest love Serhat and this is a classic cult/Kitch reminder of the late 90's early 00's.
Everyone can sing along Say Na Na Na
Pimp slot is a huge favor for them. San Marino needs to stay to the contest.
Will not qualify because...
Juries will kill it and won't do any favors to Serhat's vocals.
Slavko didn't make it back in 2017 and Serhat finished 12th but with a double score from the 10th spot.
Personal opinion: Will have a like Latvia's result in 2017 that had great odds for NQ just because of the pimp slot but finished last. Anything more than 1.70 for NQ is value for me!
15. Belarus
Televoting: 14 - Juries: 16
Odds: Q 3.05 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 90.00 (exchange) - 81.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
Backing singers and dancers lift the song to a different level.
Russia decides to help the brothers from Belarus and hacks the televoting or takes the jurors of certain countries as hostages and sends doppelgangers in their place that vote for Belarus...
Will not qualify because...
The song is going nowhere with the Juries and will be difficult to finish in the Top-10 with televoting.
Personal opinion: Hopeless...
16. Montenegro
Televoting: 16 - Juries: 14
Odds: Q 11.00 (exchange market), Q:7.00 -NQ: 1.08 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 270.00 (exchange) - 151.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
All the other artists had a food poisoning and failed to show up for the Semi.
Will form a dodgy jury coalition with the other poor performers and thanks to the jury scores and some neighbor votes will qualify as 10th.
Will not qualify because...
This is an extremely poor try from Montenegro and even on a weak Semi this looks destined to fail.
Personal opinion: Montenegro must find a different formula for its selection process!
17. Georgia
Televoting: 17 - Juries: 15
Odds: Q 6.80 (exchange market), Q:5.50 -NQ: 1.12 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 180.00 (exchange) - 151.00 (betting site)
Will qualify because...
It has some allies that can secure a few juries and televoting points.
Will not qualify because...
Too aggressive, too messy, too shouty...
Personal opinion: Might avoid the last place but that is the only goal for this year.
And that's it for Semi Final 1. I am curious to see how this post will look like in 10 days' time. Let me know your thoughts and stay tuned for the next posts.
Check also https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets for interesting facts about the contest and be informed about the latest posts.
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