Netherlands still leads the pack @3.35. It was slightly affected by Azerbaijan's rehearsal, but market shows respect to its quality.
That was not the case with Russia that had a rough day and did no convince with its staging trading up to 7.40 before settling in mid 6's. Russia have built the expectations for an amazing show and the markets did not like what they saw. There is still time, but my opinion is that Russia's song is not good enough to win and the staging failed to lift it or hide its weaknesses.
Sweden did not have a positive or negative impact on its odds and is still 4th trading @12.00 but there are a few things to add here.
If I had to create a Top-5 of the 'winners' of the 1st rehearsal that would be the following:
1. Azerbaijan. 70 became 10.00 - 12.00 just in a few minutes. The moment of the rehearsals so far and it happened to the last rehearsal of all. I have only seen a few seconds of the official video that EBU released and i cannot say that I am convinced. It's a guaranteed Top-10 and the pimp slot will boost it and will create an extra momentum after the semi but...
- It is definitely weaker than Fuego and most importantly
- We currently have 6 men leading the odds! This is highly improbable to happen in the night of the final. He is not the worst of the 6 but some of the votes will split between them.
2. Italy: Divide and conquer! Russia's and Netherland's rehearsal did the work for Mahmood. We have a few more days to see their staging and see if it can be the x-factor. I still find value in Italy's odds. It's a Top-5 in worst case scenario.
3. Malta. Interesting staging and Malta will be there, near the top. Does not have winning quality but I do think that it has secured the Top-10 and is looking up.
4. Australia. The step up from Semi 1. I am dubious about Australia, and I am waiting to see the next rehearsal. Definite qualifier and then running order will be the key.
5. Czechia. The first of the songs that had good reports. Has potential for a decent finish on the left side of the table.
And now the Top-5 of the 'losers'
1. Russia. Enough said. I believe that the Italian rehearsal will bring it further down.
2. Iceland. Punters started realising that Hattari will struggle with the juries. If staged differently to attract more televoters will lose more jury votes. The less leftfield the more televoters will vote something else or won't vote at all.
3. Switzerland. Another country that failed to take advantage of its song. Win is a long shot now and must fight for a Top-5 result. Still the best Swiss entry for the last 25 years.
4. Portugal. This is the fate of a remarkably interesting song that went to Israel with attitude and presented itself as being superior to the others. So many distractions on stage that is heading for a car crash.
5. Armenia. A song that could be fighting for a Top-10 spot and now will fight for its survival in Semi 2. Running order is a huge burden and will be difficult to get away with it.
Now let's focus a little bit on the betting side of the contest and my personal book so far. My opinion is that this year we have only two true contenders. You guessed right! I do believe that these contenders are Netherlands and Italy, and this is where i have invested most of my funds.
I have 750 units @ 3.78 at Netherlands and 175 units @ 11.77 in Italy. I have also covered Azerbaijan with 70 units @27.60 and can say goodbye to the 89 units i had in Greece @ 27.75. I have another 80 units scarce in different countries for trading reasons.
My personal goal is to have a return of approximately 4000-5000 units on that market and waiting for the next rehearsals and the live shows to move accordingly.
In the Top-10 Market I have invested 100 units to Greece @ 2.47 that could bring back the lost units from the winner market.
Malta is another safe bet that have with 60 units @ 2.68
Azerbaijan has on it 10 units @ 2.86 unfortunately haven't invested more on it.
My dark horses that won't make it but still have some chances are Slovenia with 50 units @ 3.67 and Belgium 40 units @ 4.06
Semi Final Q/NQ
1st Semi
Slovenia Q 20 units @ 1.50
Poland NQ 45 units @ 2.25
Estonia NQ 20 units @ 2.62
Fun bet on Chechia to win the semi with 5 units @ 33.69 and 15 units to finish Top-3 @ 4.55
2nd Semi
Denmark Q 55 units @ 1.57
Austria Q 17 units @ 4.65
I will create a bank with my suggestions for those of you that are interested in betting in Eurovision. I will split my bank in 500 units. 100 for each Semi and 300 for the final. The winnings from each Semi will be reinvested to the 2nd Semi and Final accordingly.
And now the moment that most of you were waiting for! My first tip for Eurovision 2019
I will invest my first 20 units for each Semi and my tips are...
Semi 1
Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00
Semi 1 New total : 80 units
Semi 2
Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50
Semi 1 New Total : 80 units
Let me know your thoughts and your bets so far. A reminder that my twitter account is eurovisionbets.
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