Eurovision 2019 Final: Insert Coin...

D-Day is finally here! It has been a long interesting year. Not so intense like the previous years though. My intuition says that we will have a similar scoreboard to 2015.

A clear Winner, a bunch of 6-7 countries getting the high scores on Juries and/or Televoting and the rest spread all over the place. That said, we have a solid Top-8 and then 9th-20th places could have a margin of 60-80 points in total.


My Top-5 hasn't changed much since I posted it on twitter after the running order was revealed:

1. Netherlands: His superiority was never questioned from the market, leading all the way from the day that Russia's song was presented. By far the best voice and performance of the year. Even when he had the technical issues, the price never drifted that much to imply that he is in trouble. The YouTube views and the ratio of likes and dislikes is an extra proof. iTunes charts are there as well. Too short to place money on him now but Netherlands is ready for their first win after 45 years and they deserve it with all the effort they have put to the contest since 2013.

2. Switzerland: When it was presented was considered among the favorites. Then the parties started and suddenly it was forgotten. The same happened during rehearsals and then we saw it live on Thursday and we realised the amounts of energy that brings to the stage. Topping iTunes and great on YouTube views and likes/dislikes ratio. This is the proper Fuego 2.0 or Fuego 2019. If Top-3 with Juries, it might be able to be the dark horse. Was @14 this morning, currently @9.60 and ready to pass Australia as second favorite.

3. Italy: The cool song of the year with a story that is nicely depicted at the background. Mahmood is not everybody's cup of tea and Italy is always an x-factor but deserves to be up there. Not so many YouTube views but this is always the case with the Big-5. Doing ok with iTunes. If Italy made the Top-5 last year with a song that nobody was expecting to be Top-5, Mahmood can go higher.

4. Azerbaijan: The song that created a wow factor during its first rehearsal. Must have been a solid Top-3 during the Semi and has the potential to do great with Televoting. Its main problem is that is fishing with Switzerland at the same pond for votes and has Russia as the main competitor of the ex-soviet voting bloc.

5. Australia: A song that was the joke of the national finals season, managed to be the talk of the week. Amazing staging that will secure a great televoting score and Australia has a good history with juries as well, so I expect it to land in the Top-5. That is its ceiling though.

There are several countries that have a secure spot on the Top-10

6. Sweden: Juries will secure a particularly good score and will definitely have a more decent televoting than Ingrosso but still don't think that it will be enough to take it higher.

7. Russia: Sergey is a great performer and Russia has its way with so many allies available, but the song is almost non-existent. Gives me the impression that could only win the Eurovision circa 1993-1996. Kontopoulos' songs and Fokas' staging belong in an older era.

After that everything is open for me. I do thing that it will be marginal and any of these countries can make it. All of them have flaws but for bragging rights I will go with following

8. Serbia: Quality song that can attract some jury love, add the Balkan allies and you have a score that can secure the Top-10 finishing. If they managed to get 113 points last year, I can't see how they cannot get 180-200 this year.

9. Belarus: My Top-10 surprise. Every year there is a song that goes to Top-10 from nowhere. The first part of my prophecy (scroll down to #14) was successful, so I will go all the way 😂
YouTube views support my theory as well.

10. Greece: Biased alert. I have a soft spot for this song. Even though I'm from Greece, there are only a handful of songs that I have actually liked. This is my favorite ever Greek entry. I do know that the staging is a bit off and elitist (that's Greek as well) but Greece can be a Top-10 with the juries and can get some points from diaspora to secure that spot.

The other Top-10 contenders IMO are France, Iceland, Norway, Spain, Cyprus.

For the last place market Germany is the hot favorite, UK is in close distance (bet you any money that if it lands in Bottom-5 everyone will blame Brexit - Is there a bet for that? -) but my fun bets are Czechia and Denmark @67 and @51.

 Czechia had a similar result back in 2016, lacks allies and is early in the running order.
Denmark is the 4th Scandinavian country in the final and will struggle to find points from televoting or juries. If the margin is around 20 points this is a solid candidate.

And now it's time for my tips. My book was spread like that: 100 units on each Semi and 300 for the final.

My 1st Semi bets were the following

 Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Total after the Semi: 40 units and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi

For Semi 2 I have invested the 100 units plus the 40 units from Semi-1 on the following bets

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Total after the Semi: 89.4 units

That means that my bank for the Final is 389.4 units and here we go! I know that some of you don't have the chance to use the Exchange market, so my prices come from normal betting sites but do use Exchange for better profits if you have the chance.

Final

Winner W/O Netherlands: Switzerland - 189.4 units @ 3.25

Top-4 Italy: 50 units @ 3.50

Top-4 Switzerland: 100 units @ 1.83

And the 50 units that go to my fun bets

Top-10 Belarus: 20 units @ 12.00

Top Nordic Country: Norway 10 units @ 6.50

To Finish Last: Denmark 10 units @ 51.00

To Finish Last: Czechia 10 units @ 67.00

New Total: 0 units

Open Bets: 409.4 units

Switzerland finishing 2nd will be enough to have a good profit.

Best luck to all your bets!

Eurovision Challenge

Unfortunately that 1 point difference between 10th and 11th in the 2nd Semi was probably the reason why I missed Albania's NQ. So back to square 1. My 10 units bet for the final will be

Switzerland Top-4: 10 units @ 1.83

Ps 1: Will update later the comments section with my book and the full 1-26 prediction for the bragging rights.

Ps 2: Would like to thank my partner for her patience these last two months that I was focused on this blog and spending hundreds of hours looking at data and the songs.

Ps 3: This year is kind of strange. It's the first time that David Gould is not around us and his blog and presence are missing. His legacy and posts will always be here though to guide us. I wish he were here to read my posts and give me his valuable feedback.

Ps 4: Thanks to all the guys from the Eurovision betting community for your help and support! Tim, Gavin, Matt, Rob your posts and insights always have an impact on my ways of thinking.

Ps 5: Thank to all you that have spent time to read my posts and hope you found them useful and entertaining.