Winner's Market - First Thoughts

 

Eurovision's National selection season is officially over today, and it is time to have the first breakdown of the favourites. 

My first thought is that this will be an open year. We do have a clear favourite, but the current price does not represent its actual value. 

The current trend has Juries and Televoting opting for different songs with the last unanimous winner being back in 2017. Only Sobral and Conchita, if the 50/50 results applied, have won both the Juries and Televoting. Arcade was the first winner that not only did not win Juries or the public but finished 3rd and 2nd respectively. Italy that finished second, ranked third with Juries and fourth in public. Neither the winner of Juries nor Televoting finished in Top-5! Some food for thought...

2019                                              2018

1. Netherlands J: 3 - TV: 2           1. Israel     J: 3 - TV:1

2. Italy             J: 4 - TV: 3           2. Cyprus J: 5 - TV: 2

3. Russia         J: 9 - TV: 4            3. Austria J: 1 - TV: 13!!

4. Switzerland J: 7 - TV: 5           4. Germany J: 4 - TV: 6

5. Sweden       J: 2 - TV: 9           5. Italy       J:17!!! - TV: 3

Prices in Winner's market tend to be televoting centric. 

So, grab your popcorn and let's start

1. Switzerland 4.10 

Gjon's Tears is one of the few returning artists that produced a better song than last year. He would have been in the podium last year as well, but this is his time to shine. An immensely powerful and intimate ballad with huge staging potential.

Pros: 

- Vocal abilities

- Staging potential

- The jury winner

- Swiss momentum and recent form, proving that they have invested in a win

Cons:

- French language. The last time a French speaking song was leading the market (2011) finished 15th. It was opera and there was a different voting system as well, but French songs do have the tendency to underperform.

- Fishing in the same pond with France, Bulgaria, Romania. 

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

Netherlands 2019 slightly less dramatic

Bulgaria 2017 

Fair Price: 6.00 - 8.00

Value Bet Price: Anything over 8.00. That ship has already sailed for good. I cannot see that price being available before the night of the second semi and if that is the case, he will already be in trouble.

My humble opinion: This is the one to beat this year but is far from a certain winner. It's a certain Top-4 entry, probably the Jury winner with 3rd being the worst-case scenario but can he finish Top-3 with the televoting? That is the key point, and we need to see the staging for that.

2. Malta 5.40 

And suddenly Malta happened! The upbeat song that I was expecting to do great in the first post-covid Eurovision. Great energy and vocals from Destiny. Grabs your attention from the first second and never looks back. 

Pros: 

- Energy, energy, energy

- Destiny's voice

- Can use the back vocals to its advantage

- Great ''tradition'' with Juries

Cons:

- It looks like a lite version of Netta's toy

- I am not sure about its appeal in Eastern Europe, both with Juries and Televoting

- Fishing in the same pond with Sweden

- The Maltese Televoting...Malta struggles to get points. 2014 finished 13th in total with the 50/50 system, but ranked only 24th in televoting, in 2016 12th in total and 21st in televoting, 2019 14th in total and 22nd respectively...ouch...

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

Israel 2018 

Iceland 2010

Fair Price: 8.00-10.00

Value Bet Price: Over 12.00. Not sure if will find it at any point before the announcement of the running order for the final.

My humble opinion: Still very fresh in my mind. The one to beat Switzerland but could easily be left out of Top-5. Could land anywhere between 1-8. Need some time to assess its dynamic

3. Bulgaria 8.80

Victoria returns with a nice entry. GUIGO has the potential to be a radio hit and is one of the less Eurovision-ish songs which is always a good thing for the audience but not so much if you are after the win. It has potential.

Pros: 

- Atmospheric and huge staging potential as well

- Great appeal to western juries and televoters plus the traditional regional support (hold that thought)

- Bulgaria wants to win.

- Billie Eilish vibes

Cons: 

- Like Switzerland, is jury based and that might be a problem

- Bulgaria's PR. Still not convinced that Bulgaria has learned from the past how to play the game. 

- Balkans are making a comeback in the contest with enough strong entries that might steal votes from Bulgaria (Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Moldova, Croatia). So, it is a matter of who will qualify to the final. The less the better for them.

- Staging History. They did everything right back in 2016 and 2017 but 2018 was a nightmare. They tend to overcomplicate things when less is more.

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be: 

Bulgaria 2017 

Fair Price: 12.00- 15.00

 Bet Value Price: Anything around 18.00. Being in the same Semi with Switzerland, there is a chance to take it at that price after the Semi. 

My humble opinion: Bulgaria is in for the win, and they should be proud for their song no matter what happens this year. It is an almost certain Top-5, probably Top-3 with Juries and somewhere between Top-3/5 with televoting. For the moment is one step behind Switzerland and Malta.

4. Italy 12.50

Well done to Italy for choosing Maneskin. It has the energy; it has attitude and does not care about what you think! Excellent choice regardless of what happens in the contest. My personal favourite so biased alert is on. 

Pros:

- Very stylistic and in your face approach

- Will definitely attract alternative and rock fans

- Based in momentum and form in Eurovision, Italy is first in line to win the contest

Cons:

- Overly aggressive and slightly left field. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

- Italy's struggle with Juries. They have ranked Il Volo 6th when it won the Televoting against Mans and they finished 17th!!! in 2018 when they were 3rd in Televoting and still managed to finish 5th in Total! The worst ranking with Juries or Televoting that has squeezed in Top-5.

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be: 

Iceland 2019

Hungary 2018

Fair Price: 16.00-18.00

Bet Value Price: 20+ with a good running order and some luck that could be the definition of the dark horse.

My humble opinion: I am optimistic about Italy and could see it landing somewhere in Top-2/5. Will test one of my theories for Eurovision which is Juries and audience are exposed to something for a 2nd or 3rd time it is easier for them to accept it. Before Dana in 98' it was Paul Oscar in 97', before Lordi in 06' there were Wig Wam in 05' etc. In 2019 we had Hatari and Conan. I'm sure that Maneskin will do better than Hatari.

5. Sweden 14.50

Melfest's results showed that Tusse was a one-horse race, winning easily. Million Voices is a classic Swedish Eurovision anthem and in harmony with BLM trend, but it seems a bit too safe as a song. The price like every year shows some extra respect to the brand name called Sweden.

Pros:

- We know the final product and it is slick as almost every Swedish entry

- Sweden's ''love affair'' with the Juries that will lift the overall score

- Tusse's personal story and charisma

Cons:

- The song is kind of generic and nothing special in terms of lyrics

- Have televoters been fed up with the Swedish entries?

- Could Tusse appeal to Eastern Europe?

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be: 

Russia's 2015 poor version

Russia 2013

Fair Price: 22.00-25.00

Value Bet Price: 30.00+and just for trading reasons

My humble opinion: Sweden's Top-5 is in serious danger this season. Cannot see it going lower than 12th but neither can see it reaching Top-5. 7th-8th is the most probable outcome.

These are my first thoughts for the contest. Will post next week regarding the possible dark horses and the flops. It looks like we will have a very promising Eurovision Season ahead!

Eurovision 2019 Final: Insert Coin...

D-Day is finally here! It has been a long interesting year. Not so intense like the previous years though. My intuition says that we will have a similar scoreboard to 2015.

A clear Winner, a bunch of 6-7 countries getting the high scores on Juries and/or Televoting and the rest spread all over the place. That said, we have a solid Top-8 and then 9th-20th places could have a margin of 60-80 points in total.


My Top-5 hasn't changed much since I posted it on twitter after the running order was revealed:

1. Netherlands: His superiority was never questioned from the market, leading all the way from the day that Russia's song was presented. By far the best voice and performance of the year. Even when he had the technical issues, the price never drifted that much to imply that he is in trouble. The YouTube views and the ratio of likes and dislikes is an extra proof. iTunes charts are there as well. Too short to place money on him now but Netherlands is ready for their first win after 45 years and they deserve it with all the effort they have put to the contest since 2013.

2. Switzerland: When it was presented was considered among the favorites. Then the parties started and suddenly it was forgotten. The same happened during rehearsals and then we saw it live on Thursday and we realised the amounts of energy that brings to the stage. Topping iTunes and great on YouTube views and likes/dislikes ratio. This is the proper Fuego 2.0 or Fuego 2019. If Top-3 with Juries, it might be able to be the dark horse. Was @14 this morning, currently @9.60 and ready to pass Australia as second favorite.

3. Italy: The cool song of the year with a story that is nicely depicted at the background. Mahmood is not everybody's cup of tea and Italy is always an x-factor but deserves to be up there. Not so many YouTube views but this is always the case with the Big-5. Doing ok with iTunes. If Italy made the Top-5 last year with a song that nobody was expecting to be Top-5, Mahmood can go higher.

4. Azerbaijan: The song that created a wow factor during its first rehearsal. Must have been a solid Top-3 during the Semi and has the potential to do great with Televoting. Its main problem is that is fishing with Switzerland at the same pond for votes and has Russia as the main competitor of the ex-soviet voting bloc.

5. Australia: A song that was the joke of the national finals season, managed to be the talk of the week. Amazing staging that will secure a great televoting score and Australia has a good history with juries as well, so I expect it to land in the Top-5. That is its ceiling though.

There are several countries that have a secure spot on the Top-10

6. Sweden: Juries will secure a particularly good score and will definitely have a more decent televoting than Ingrosso but still don't think that it will be enough to take it higher.

7. Russia: Sergey is a great performer and Russia has its way with so many allies available, but the song is almost non-existent. Gives me the impression that could only win the Eurovision circa 1993-1996. Kontopoulos' songs and Fokas' staging belong in an older era.

After that everything is open for me. I do thing that it will be marginal and any of these countries can make it. All of them have flaws but for bragging rights I will go with following

8. Serbia: Quality song that can attract some jury love, add the Balkan allies and you have a score that can secure the Top-10 finishing. If they managed to get 113 points last year, I can't see how they cannot get 180-200 this year.

9. Belarus: My Top-10 surprise. Every year there is a song that goes to Top-10 from nowhere. The first part of my prophecy (scroll down to #14) was successful, so I will go all the way 😂
YouTube views support my theory as well.

10. Greece: Biased alert. I have a soft spot for this song. Even though I'm from Greece, there are only a handful of songs that I have actually liked. This is my favorite ever Greek entry. I do know that the staging is a bit off and elitist (that's Greek as well) but Greece can be a Top-10 with the juries and can get some points from diaspora to secure that spot.

The other Top-10 contenders IMO are France, Iceland, Norway, Spain, Cyprus.

For the last place market Germany is the hot favorite, UK is in close distance (bet you any money that if it lands in Bottom-5 everyone will blame Brexit - Is there a bet for that? -) but my fun bets are Czechia and Denmark @67 and @51.

 Czechia had a similar result back in 2016, lacks allies and is early in the running order.
Denmark is the 4th Scandinavian country in the final and will struggle to find points from televoting or juries. If the margin is around 20 points this is a solid candidate.

And now it's time for my tips. My book was spread like that: 100 units on each Semi and 300 for the final.

My 1st Semi bets were the following

 Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Total after the Semi: 40 units and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi

For Semi 2 I have invested the 100 units plus the 40 units from Semi-1 on the following bets

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Total after the Semi: 89.4 units

That means that my bank for the Final is 389.4 units and here we go! I know that some of you don't have the chance to use the Exchange market, so my prices come from normal betting sites but do use Exchange for better profits if you have the chance.

Final

Winner W/O Netherlands: Switzerland - 189.4 units @ 3.25

Top-4 Italy: 50 units @ 3.50

Top-4 Switzerland: 100 units @ 1.83

And the 50 units that go to my fun bets

Top-10 Belarus: 20 units @ 12.00

Top Nordic Country: Norway 10 units @ 6.50

To Finish Last: Denmark 10 units @ 51.00

To Finish Last: Czechia 10 units @ 67.00

New Total: 0 units

Open Bets: 409.4 units

Switzerland finishing 2nd will be enough to have a good profit.

Best luck to all your bets!

Eurovision Challenge

Unfortunately that 1 point difference between 10th and 11th in the 2nd Semi was probably the reason why I missed Albania's NQ. So back to square 1. My 10 units bet for the final will be

Switzerland Top-4: 10 units @ 1.83

Ps 1: Will update later the comments section with my book and the full 1-26 prediction for the bragging rights.

Ps 2: Would like to thank my partner for her patience these last two months that I was focused on this blog and spending hundreds of hours looking at data and the songs.

Ps 3: This year is kind of strange. It's the first time that David Gould is not around us and his blog and presence are missing. His legacy and posts will always be here though to guide us. I wish he were here to read my posts and give me his valuable feedback.

Ps 4: Thanks to all the guys from the Eurovision betting community for your help and support! Tim, Gavin, Matt, Rob your posts and insights always have an impact on my ways of thinking.

Ps 5: Thank to all you that have spent time to read my posts and hope you found them useful and entertaining.