My first thought is that this will be an open year. We do have a clear favourite, but the current price does not represent its actual value.
The current trend has Juries and Televoting opting for different songs with the last unanimous winner being back in 2017. Only Sobral and Conchita, if the 50/50 results applied, have won both the Juries and Televoting. Arcade was the first winner that not only did not win Juries or the public but finished 3rd and 2nd respectively. Italy that finished second, ranked third with Juries and fourth in public. Neither the winner of Juries nor Televoting finished in Top-5! Some food for thought...
2019 2018
1. Netherlands J: 3 - TV: 2 1. Israel J: 3 - TV:1
2. Italy J: 4 - TV: 3 2. Cyprus J: 5 - TV: 2
3. Russia J: 9 - TV: 4 3. Austria J: 1 - TV: 13!!
4. Switzerland J: 7 - TV: 5 4. Germany J: 4 - TV: 6
5. Sweden J: 2 - TV: 9 5. Italy J:17!!! - TV: 3
Prices in Winner's market tend to be televoting centric.
So, grab your popcorn and let's start
1. Switzerland 4.10
Gjon's Tears is one of the few returning artists that produced a better song than last year. He would have been in the podium last year as well, but this is his time to shine. An immensely powerful and intimate ballad with huge staging potential.
Pros:
- Vocal abilities
- Staging potential
- The jury winner
- Swiss momentum and recent form, proving that they have invested in a win
Cons:
- French language. The last time a French speaking song was leading the market (2011) finished 15th. It was opera and there was a different voting system as well, but French songs do have the tendency to underperform.
- Fishing in the same pond with France, Bulgaria, Romania.
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Netherlands 2019 slightly less dramatic
Bulgaria 2017
Fair Price: 6.00 - 8.00
Value Bet Price: Anything over 8.00. That ship has already sailed for good. I cannot see that price being available before the night of the second semi and if that is the case, he will already be in trouble.
My humble opinion: This is the one to beat this year but is far from a certain winner. It's a certain Top-4 entry, probably the Jury winner with 3rd being the worst-case scenario but can he finish Top-3 with the televoting? That is the key point, and we need to see the staging for that.
2. Malta 5.40
And suddenly Malta happened! The upbeat song that I was expecting to do great in the first post-covid Eurovision. Great energy and vocals from Destiny. Grabs your attention from the first second and never looks back.
Pros:
- Energy, energy, energy
- Destiny's voice
- Can use the back vocals to its advantage
- Great ''tradition'' with Juries
Cons:
- It looks like a lite version of Netta's toy
- I am not sure about its appeal in Eastern Europe, both with Juries and Televoting
- Fishing in the same pond with Sweden
- The Maltese Televoting...Malta struggles to get points. 2014 finished 13th in total with the 50/50 system, but ranked only 24th in televoting, in 2016 12th in total and 21st in televoting, 2019 14th in total and 22nd respectively...ouch...
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Israel 2018
Iceland 2010
Fair Price: 8.00-10.00
Value Bet Price: Over 12.00. Not sure if will find it at any point before the announcement of the running order for the final.
My humble opinion: Still very fresh in my mind. The one to beat Switzerland but could easily be left out of Top-5. Could land anywhere between 1-8. Need some time to assess its dynamic
3. Bulgaria 8.80
Victoria returns with a nice entry. GUIGO has the potential to be a radio hit and is one of the less Eurovision-ish songs which is always a good thing for the audience but not so much if you are after the win. It has potential.
Pros:
- Atmospheric and huge staging potential as well
- Great appeal to western juries and televoters plus the traditional regional support (hold that thought)
- Bulgaria wants to win.
- Billie Eilish vibes
Cons:
- Like Switzerland, is jury based and that might be a problem
- Bulgaria's PR. Still not convinced that Bulgaria has learned from the past how to play the game.
- Balkans are making a comeback in the contest with enough strong entries that might steal votes from Bulgaria (Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Moldova, Croatia). So, it is a matter of who will qualify to the final. The less the better for them.
- Staging History. They did everything right back in 2016 and 2017 but 2018 was a nightmare. They tend to overcomplicate things when less is more.
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Bulgaria 2017
Fair Price: 12.00- 15.00
Bet Value Price: Anything around 18.00. Being in the same Semi with Switzerland, there is a chance to take it at that price after the Semi.
My humble opinion: Bulgaria is in for the win, and they should be proud for their song no matter what happens this year. It is an almost certain Top-5, probably Top-3 with Juries and somewhere between Top-3/5 with televoting. For the moment is one step behind Switzerland and Malta.
4. Italy 12.50
Well done to Italy for choosing Maneskin. It has the energy; it has attitude and does not care about what you think! Excellent choice regardless of what happens in the contest. My personal favourite so biased alert is on.
Pros:
- Very stylistic and in your face approach
- Will definitely attract alternative and rock fans
- Based in momentum and form in Eurovision, Italy is first in line to win the contest
Cons:
- Overly aggressive and slightly left field. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
- Italy's struggle with Juries. They have ranked Il Volo 6th when it won the Televoting against Mans and they finished 17th!!! in 2018 when they were 3rd in Televoting and still managed to finish 5th in Total! The worst ranking with Juries or Televoting that has squeezed in Top-5.
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Iceland 2019
Hungary 2018
Fair Price: 16.00-18.00
Bet Value Price: 20+ with a good running order and some luck that could be the definition of the dark horse.
My humble opinion: I am optimistic about Italy and could see it landing somewhere in Top-2/5. Will test one of my theories for Eurovision which is Juries and audience are exposed to something for a 2nd or 3rd time it is easier for them to accept it. Before Dana in 98' it was Paul Oscar in 97', before Lordi in 06' there were Wig Wam in 05' etc. In 2019 we had Hatari and Conan. I'm sure that Maneskin will do better than Hatari.
5. Sweden 14.50
Melfest's results showed that Tusse was a one-horse race, winning easily. Million Voices is a classic Swedish Eurovision anthem and in harmony with BLM trend, but it seems a bit too safe as a song. The price like every year shows some extra respect to the brand name called Sweden.
Pros:
- We know the final product and it is slick as almost every Swedish entry
- Sweden's ''love affair'' with the Juries that will lift the overall score
- Tusse's personal story and charisma
Cons:
- The song is kind of generic and nothing special in terms of lyrics
- Have televoters been fed up with the Swedish entries?
- Could Tusse appeal to Eastern Europe?
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Russia's 2015 poor version
Russia 2013
Fair Price: 22.00-25.00
Value Bet Price: 30.00+and just for trading reasons
My humble opinion: Sweden's Top-5 is in serious danger this season. Cannot see it going lower than 12th but neither can see it reaching Top-5. 7th-8th is the most probable outcome.
These are my first thoughts for the contest. Will post next week regarding the possible dark horses and the flops. It looks like we will have a very promising Eurovision Season ahead!
No comments:
Post a Comment