Forget the polls, forget the juries, try to burst the Eurovision bubble, and see the songs for what they are on stage.
I find my pre-rehearsal power rankings to be one of my most useful posts. I use it as a compass when we are deep in the bubble and get carried away by a good or bad staging or rehearsal.
Last year, my Semi-Final 1 score was 8/10, having Romania (4th) and Croatia (10th) in, missing Israel (11th) and Azerbaijan (12th). I have also predicted Malta correctly as the winner but most of my initial predictions needed some ironing regarding the actual ranking.
Let's see how many I will get this year. If you click on the name of each country, you can find the detailed preview. Enjoy and let me know your thoughts!
1. Ukraine
Tv: 1st - Juries: 3rd
What I think it will happen: I don't know what Ukraine will do in the Final, but in the smaller field of the Semi-Final it can score better with Juries, and relying on the Televote, secure the win. There is no value on that price though and placing a bet on Lay is something to keep in mind
I would be shocked if: Ukraine will not finish in Top-2. We will not find before the Final, but it would be a huge upset.
2. Norway
Tv: 2nd - Juries: 6th
What I think it will happen: In a Semi full of slow-tempo songs the up-tempo are the winners playing alone in Televote while the others split the Jury points between them. Therefore, you see Norway second even though the countries that follow have a smaller total. Wouldn't be surprised if Norway wins the Televote. Top-3 is almost guaranteed.
I would be shocked if: They are not Top-2 in Televoting and/or finishing out of Top-10 with Juries.
3. Netherlands
Tv: 3rd - Juries: 2nd
What I think it will happen: I don't know if I am invested so much in that song that I have become biased, or Juries and audience have missed something. I find it slightly superior to the other slow-tempos and that automatically makes it a Top-3 contender.
I would be shocked if: Netherlands finishes out of Top-6.
4. Greece
Tv: 4th - Juries: 1st
What I think it will happen: Greece has in theory a higher ceiling than Netherlands and Norway and Ukraine being a X-factor, I would not be surprised if Greece finishes anywhere between 1st and 4th or slide a bit behind and finish 5th.
I would be shocked if: Greece is out of Top-3 with Juries and/or finishes out of Top-6.
5. Armenia
Tv: 5th - Juries: 4th
What I think it will happen: Armenia will be sailing to the Final! The third slow-tempo song in the race for the best finish. Top-3 could be within reach. One of the rehearsals I am looking forward the most.
I would be shocked if: Armenia finishes out of Top-8 or is saved by one of the two constituencies.
6. Albania
Tv: 7th - Juries: 8th
What I think it will happen: The opening slot and some friends in the Semi will make sure that Albania qualifies one way or the other to the Final. It does not have enough to contend for Top-3, it does not have something that the jurors could punish.
I would be shocked if: I have Albania on my certain qualifiers. However, if Latvia for some reason qualifies (yes, that is a shock) and Albania is not announced yet, then that could mean trouble.
7. Portugal
Tv: 10th - Juries: 5th
What I think it will happen: I thought that Portugal would do better in the pre-rehearsal metrics and that has not happened. Maro performs in a bad slot as well and that makes things difficult, but Portugal has the quality to qualify. The fourth slow-tempo of the pack that could override the other ones and potentially finish in Top-3/5.
I would be shocked if: Portugal misses the Final, however the current price is very short in my opinion.
8. Moldova
Tv: 6th - Juries: 11th
What I think it will happen: This is the last of the certain or almost certain qualifiers for this Semi. Televoting will be the key once again and Juries could rank them higher as well. Could finish lower but not higher.
I would be shocked if: They are not Top-10 with Televoting.
9. Lithuania
Tv: 8th - Juries: 12th
What I think it will happen: We are now entering in the danger zone. Qualification is far from certain, but Lithuania might have just enough to get those 100-110 points and secure its place in the Final. Would not be shocked if they don't though.
I would be shocked if: They finish higher than 8th or in the Bottom-3.
10. Switzerland
Tv: 14th - Juries: 7th
What I think it will happen: I have included this one in my Top-10 just because I might be biased against it and missed something. I recognize its jury power, but I reckon that the Televoting will be non-existent. It will need either a Top-5 Jury score or 20-30 televote points and a 6th-8th Jury finish.
I would be shocked if: Switzerland finishes in Top-10 with Televoters.
11. Croatia
Tv: 11th - Juries: 10th
What I think it will happen: A similar result to last year when Croatia became the first country to miss the Final even though it finished in Top-10 with both constituencies. It does have the quality, but it lacks that something extra that could propel its Jury or Televote score. This is one to keep an eye on as the qualifying odds look juicy for the moment.
I would be shocked if: Croatia missed the Final once again after being placed in Top-10 with both constituencies.
12. Latvia
Tv: 9th - Juries: 13th
What I think it will happen: According to the EuroJury result this is a certain qualifier. Maybe I am getting old 😂 but I struggle to see how Latvia would qualify. It could score better with Televoting and get some Jury points from some friends (Lithuania, Norway) but being #2 is a big setback. One to watch during rehearsals. There is still value in the NQ price.
I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-5 with Televoting or Top-10 with Juries.
13. Iceland
Tv: 13th - Juries: 9th
What I think it will happen: We are gradually entering in the no-hope region. Iceland has a shot if they nail everything and surpass a few of the other slow-tempo songs and they are plenty. If the bar is set low (85-90pts) they might get lucky.
I would be shocked if: They finish Bottom-3.
14. Austria
Tv: 12th - Juries: 16th
What I think it will happen: Unfortunately, the studio version is far superior to the actual live and the majority of the televoters have not heard that version. Austria needs a lot of work and the time they had on their hands was not enough. I have already tipped Austria as a non-qualifier, and I might top-up the units on that bet.
I would be shocked if: Austria fixed the vocals in a few weeks and qualifies.
15. Denmark
Tv: 15th - Juries: 14th
What I think it will happen: Denmark is not going anywhere. Has no appeal to jurors or televoters and I would not be surprised if they finish last. They need to change their recipe.
I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-10 with any of the two constituencies.
16. Bulgaria
Tv: 16th - Juries: 15th
What I think it will happen: A few low points here and there that might be enough to save them from last place and that's it.
I would be shocked if: They qualify.
17. Slovenia
Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th
What I think it will happen: A song that is out of touch. Never got any traction. Avoiding Bottom-3 is the only target they could set.
I would be shocked if: They qualify.
Betting Time!
Tomorrow I will post my book for the year but a quick reminder. I will have a book of 1000 units in Total, split in 100 units for each Semi-Final and 800 units for the Final. Returned units could be carried in Semi-Final 2 and /or the Final.
So far for the Semi-Final 1 I have tipped
Austria Lay @2.00 x 25 units
Currently the Lay is @2.16 and the betting sites have the non-qualify @1.83.
I reckon there is still value there.
Let me know what your thoughts and ideas. Just a reminder that can see regular updates and comments on my twitter account.
Good luck with your predictions and bets!
