Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 3. Lithuania...is Sentimental

Qualifying Record: 9/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Lithuania hopes to continue the tradition of 'untraditional' songs performing in #3 and qualifying to the Final (Albania '18, Serbia '21).

Monika Liu is a charismatic singer and 'Sentimentai' has those classy '70s vibes.

Some people find it boring, and some others love it! Having an audience is a great advantage since there is no negative voting. 

For the moment Lithuania's chances are like a coin toss. Having Latvia before and Switzerland and Slovenia does help its cause though.

Will qualify because...

Monika has charisma and the entry could be memorable enough for the right reasons. 

There is not much for the Juries to punish it and Lithuania does perform well in Televoting even though most of its friends apart from Latvia and Ukraine are on the other Semi-Final.

Will not qualify because...

#3 is a tough one and there are four more strong entries that have more chances qualifying. Lithuania needs five entries to make it from the first half to be sure for qualification.

UK, Ireland, Estonia, Poland are all voting in Semi-Final 2...

Realistic Expectations...

8th-11th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Just in terms of alternative Albania '18(Q), Russia '21(NQ)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

The second worst slot along with #11. However, it has provided two podium finishes with the latest being last year with Russia (3rd).

Juries have a 50% qualifying record while Televoting has the second worst record and is the slot with the most last places (6) among the totals and the two consistencies.

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking:  9.1(Js:11.1 - TV:8.3)

Points: 130.7 (Js:50.6 - TV:80.1)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.63

What happens next...

If Lithuania qualifies then that will be mission completed.

Diaspora and friends could guarantee enough points to avoid Bottom-5 but not enough to secure a left-hand side finish.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

14th-20th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking:11.5 (Js:13.3- TV:10.5)

Points: 169(Js:70 - TV:99)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.70

In seven Semi-Finals and four Finals since 2014, Lithuania performed just once better with Juries than Televoting ('16F)!

In four Finals so far, never made it to the Top-10 with Juries!