Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 11. Croatia...is a Guilty Pleasure

Qualifying Record: 6/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

If there is a country that has the right to complain about the running order in Producer's choice era, that would be Croatia...

2016 #5

2017 #11

2018 #12

2019 #10

2021 #10 

2022 #11...

No wonder that Croatia has three consecutives non qualifications. 

Last year they also made history being the first country ever to miss the Final, even though finished in Top-10 both with Juries and Televoting!!! (10th-9th)

Will history repeat itself? Croatia once again will be om the verge. They will most probably be in Top-10 with Juries, but Televoting is still a mystery. 

'Guilty Pleasure' is a beautiful low-tempo song. The problem is that there are too many in that second half and Croatia is too early.

Add that to the fact that Croatia historically struggles to qualify, and things start to go south.

I have not written it off yet but is on my NQ list for the moment.

Will qualify because...

There is no precedent of all four songs missing the final performing #11-14 and Croatia is the stronger of that line-up.

Juries will make up for what happened last year by saving it.

Bad qualifying record for the slot but currently on three consecutive qualifications.

Will not qualify because...

It will be lost in that sea of female slow tempo songs.

Lacks televoting appeal.

Realistic Expectations...

10th-14th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Belgium '21 (Q), North Macedonia '18 (NQ), Slovenia '16 (NQ)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

The worst slot of the second half with 6/14. 

#2 and #11 are the only slots without a podium finish.

Juries tend to perform better with 8/14 Top-10 and Televoting has only 5/14.

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 12 (Js:11.4 - TV:10.6)

Points: 102.2 (Js:49.2 - TV:53)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.93

What happens next...

Croatia would love to be back to the Final after all that time, but chances are against them.

In case it happens, I'm expecting a classic result. Enough points from neighbours to avoid Bottom-3/5 but not enough to reach the first half of the scoreboard.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

NQ 65%+, 17th-24th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 18 (Js:21.5- TV:14)

Points: 100.5 (Js:32.5 - TV:68)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.48