Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 7. San Marino...needs to strip of some Televoting points

 

Qualifying Record: 3/11 (2/11 if 50/50 system applied in 14')

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7 (2/7 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

It is a fact that we live in San Marino's golden era in Eurovision.

Will their streak continue? 

Achille Lauro is a big name in Italy and San Marino will be a de facto Italy 2.0 entry having the audience on their side.

Unfortunately, they will miss the Italian points since Italy votes on the other Semi-Final.

'Stripper' will rely on its staging to get the arena involved. This is the key to attract the Televotes that needs to qualify?

The running order is on its side as well, having four slow-tempo or mediocre or both entries before it. 

I do think it stands a chance qualifying if it is near Top-6 in Televoting or worse if the Juries buy Achille's stardom.

That will be my Early bird tip for Semi-Final 2

San Marino to qualify @2.30x25 units

My logic is that San Marino #7 comes after a streak of weak entries and could pull a ' Golden Boy'. Achille will be on home turf having the audience with him. Rai will be more than happy to help and they have done it already with the running slot. Italy will not be voting in this Semi-Final but there is Italian diaspora in Germany and UK and Spain is a valuable Italian ally so why not?

I am more than happy to bet on a coin toss @2.30. I do believe there is value.

Will qualify because...

Is a song made for a big arena and can get the crowd going.

Achille Lauro has fans across Europe. Add to that the Italian diaspora that could support their enfant terrible.

Will not qualify because...

Achille loves to be edgy and provocative and ends up doing a Telemoveis.

Juries burry it.

Realistic Expectations...

8th-12th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

That will be a first in terms of genre

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Out of the eight entries that qualified from #7, five finished in podium (1-2-2).

One of the best ranking averages in Televoting (8.00)

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 13.1 (Js:14.6 - TV:11.7)

Points: 67.1 (Js:23.9 - TV:43.2)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.55

What happens next...

If San Marino qualifies, it is mission accomplished. Everyone will be happy, and they will get some Televoting points that might be enough to avoid Bottom-3.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

NQ 50%, if in Final 18th-25th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 21.7 (Js:22 - TV:18)

Points: 57 (Js:23.3- TV:33.7)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.69