Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 4. Azerbaijan...will the lights fade or shine brighter?

 

Qualifying Record: 11/12*(10/12 if 50/50 rule is applied in 14'-15') 

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/7* (5/7 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Azerbaijan unfortunately has ditched the successful recipe of songs about historical personalities. 

They are back with a male ballad that feels uninspiring after the first hearing, however, it came alive during the preparties. 

That says more about the level of the Semi-Final rather than the quality of 'Fade to Black'.

Azerbaijan's good track record could guarantee a qualification.

Juries will be there to help in a Semi-Final that has just a handful of jury-baits.

Will qualify because...

Juries will back it and there are always some friends to help.

It is followed by three weaker entries.

Will not qualify because...

Staging is very blunt and underwhelming.

Realistic Expectations...

6th-10th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Belgium '18 (NQ), Malta '17 (NQ), Israel '16 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Televoting has just 6/14 Top-10s, however three of them were in podium (0-1-2).

The other paradox is that is currently running a four qualifications streak.

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 7.9 (Js:7.4 - TV:8.6)

Points: 147.1 (Js:76.7 - TV: 70.4)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.09

What happens next...

Azerbaijan will most probably be at the Final. Top-10 would be the absolute best-case scenario. With some luck and a great staging could become reality.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

15th-23rd

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 14.7 (Js:12.8 - TV:13.8)

Points: 118 (Js:59.1 - TV:58.9)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.00