Qualifying Record: 9/16
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14
Current Country Streak: 3 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q
Albania will be the first song that we will see live this year!
It will be the first time that Albania has the honour to open the show!
Is that a good thing? Probably yes.
Sekret is the kind of song that is ideal to open the Semi Final without hurting its qualifying chances.
Albania keeps relying in its successful recipe of folk bangers that has produced back-to-back qualifications the last three years.
Albania belongs to the second gear entries of this Semi and unless something overly dramatic happens during rehearsals, they will finally enjoy a stress-free night.
In the last three contests they were saved twice by the Juries and once by the televoters.
#1 does not guarantee a podium finish, quite the opposite, but is the second best from the first half in terms of qualifying record.
Will qualify because...
Once again, there are enough countries with Albanian diaspora and from the Balkan region to vote them.
Juries have no reason to punish it.
The strongest entry from the first five slots.
Will not qualify because...
Staging is bit extreme and off putting for the viewers.
Ukraine performing in #6 obliterates all five entries before it.
Realistic Expectations...
6th - 10th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...
San Marino '21(Q), Cyprus '19(Q),
Interesting Facts about the Running Order:
The only slot from #1-5 that has produced a winner (Norway '18 - SF2)
The second-best slot for Juries after #16!
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 10.9 ( Js: 10.4 - TV: 11)
Points: 100.7 ( Js: 57 - TV: 43.7)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.30
What happens next...
Albania has a ceiling when it comes to Finals. Its result always depends on the number of Balkan entries that have qualified.
Diaspora guarantees the 40-60 televote points that are enough to avoid Bottom-5 but struggles to find the random 4-8s to secure a good result.
Most probable outcome for the Final...
12th-18th
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 Final Averages)
Ranking: 15.3 ( Js: 17.5 - TV: 15)
Points: 107 ( Js: 48.8 - TV: 58.3)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.83
Albania performs better with Juries in Semi-Finals, but when in Finals diaspora comes to the rescue.
No comments:
Post a Comment