Qualifying Record: 9/16
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14
Current Country Streak: 2 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q
Iceland has been lucky with the running order, avoiding a slot around #10-13 that would have made things more complicated.
Chances are still not on their side but at least is not written off.
A bit of help from some friends and Juries and qualification might be closer than some people think.
For the moment is on my NQ list but I have it 11th so things might change when we reach rehearsals.
Will qualify because...
Having some friends in the Semi-Final always comes handy. They have 30-40 secured points and are looking for the rest.
There is a certain jury appeal and will get some low Televoting points to reach the 105-115 threshold.
Will not qualify because...
It comes before Greece and Norway that are among the Top-3/4 of the Semi and might be lost.
Staging will be very dull and basic.
Realistic Expectations...
8th-12th
Albania '19 (Q, Latvia '18 (NQ), Greece '18 (NQ), Czechia '17 (NQ), Netherlands ' 14 (Q)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order:
Great slot both with Juries and Televoting (10/14 - 11/14).
Televoting has four podium results (3-0-1) and Juries two (1-0-1).
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 10.9(Js:11.6 - TV:10.3)
Points: 113.3 (Js:52 - TV:61.3)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.85
What happens next...
Iceland qualifying will be mission accomplished for them. Having a mediocre or bad draw will not leave much room for excitement.
A Top-10 Jury result though could be achievable.
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 10.7(Js:11.7 - TV:8.3)
Points: 237.3 (Js:101 - TV:136.3)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.74
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