Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 13. Austria...Halo and Goodbye?

 

Qualifying Record: 5/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

The pre-rehearsals season has been a roller-coaster ride for Austria so far!

After releasing the powerful studio version of 'Halo', it was a matter of time for people to realise that there was no way this song could be performed live without heading for a car crash.

Having a nineteen-year-old first-time performer does not help their case either.

In the first pre-party in London, Pia Maria went the safe way of using the playback, but the rumours were already spreading, and the car crash happened in the next party in Israel. The performance was so poor that I struggle to find a way this song could be saved by Televoters and not finish last with the Juries.

This will be my first tip for the season!

Unfortunately, the qualifying market is available only in the two trading betting sites, so it is available only to those who have access there.

Austria Lay @2.00 x 25 units (A reminder of my betting strategy and book this year)

My reasoning is that Juries will kill any chance for qualification. They will need a Top-5 Televoting to do that and unfortunately, it is not the studio version in competition come May...

Doubling my money with a song that could finish last, is a value bet no matter what will happen

Will qualify because...

Pia Maria is an actual robot, and the pre-party performance was a hack in her system. The necessary checks and updates are done, and she is ready to slay.

Will not qualify because...

Juries will have it Bottom-3 if not last.

Vocally is so bad that reaching Televoting Top-10 is impossible.

Realistic Expectations...

12th-17th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Greece '14 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Three podium results (1-0-2) but an average qualifying record. 

Tends to work better for Televoting (9/14) than Juries (7/14).

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 8 (Js: 7.5 - TV:9.2)

Points: 156.3 (Js:79.8 - TV:76.5)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.04

What happens next...

Austria has a good song but needs major improvements to make things work and time is running out. Missing the Final looks like a certainty.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

NQ 70%+, if in the Final 18th-25th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 11.2 (Js:10  - TV:15)

Points: 233 (Js:131.8 - TV:101.2)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.30