The one thing that I haven't analysed so far is the outcome of my bets and my predictions.
The reason is that I spent so much time thinking about the contest and analysing patterns, metrics, and results that when the contest ends, I feel so burned out that I stop everything related to Eurovision for several months.
This post will focus in two different areas: My predictive analytics and my betting tips and strategy.
Predictive Analytics: Semi Finals
In four Semi-Finals so far,
I have a bad result (7/10) and a great result (9/10) in 2019 and,
two average (8/10) results in 2021. However, in both Semi-Finals I had placed the countries that did not qualify ninth and tenth and the ones that have qualified eleventh and twelfth.
I am happy with that!
My biggest disappointment is obviously the first Semi-Final in 2017 where I failed to find the winner and get right any the rankings apart from sixteenth and seventeenth.
The second Semi-Final was a different story, failing to predict only Albania's qualification. Austria was my call (everyone has a bad day...) and had successfully called Netherlands the winner.
In 2021, I have correctly called Malta in Semi-Final 1 and had Iceland first and Switzerland second with the actual difference being three points.
My prediction average to date is 8/10 which is decent.
Predictive Analytics: Grand Finals
The most important stat of all! I have successfully called both Winners! (2019, 2021).
Especially last year, I couldn't have asked for more! This was my forecast for Italy:
1. Italy 480 - 540 pts
J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts
Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality.
Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.
The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.
For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.
I missed the Televoting win but was within the point range that I have predicted. And in fact, during the Juries' voting, Italy was trading @ 5.00-6.00.
Regarding the Top-4, I had 3/4 correct predictions in 2019 (had Azerbaijan instead of Russia) and 2/4 last year (overestimating Malta's and Ukraine's Televoting abilities and slightly underestimating France and Iceland that had them fifth and sixth).
Having placed France fifth seems like a bad prediction, however I got right their Jury ranking and points range and slightly underestimated their televote, placing them fifth. I missed the points range just for 14 points. Overall, a great result as well.
Top-10 is the other market that interests me with 7/10 correct predictions in 2019 and 9/10 in 2021!
An acceptable average of 8/10 there as well.
In retrospect, things could have been better in 2019 but I have completely misread certain entries that could have helped me being closer to the results.
2021, on the other hand has been better, nearing perfection.
And now the most interesting part...
Betting Strategy and Tips
That's the part where there is so much room for improvement.
In 2019 I had a book of 500 units, 100 for each Semi-Final and 300 for the Final. The returned units could be re-invested on Semi-Final 2 and Final.
As a result, my book looked like this:
Semi-Final 1
Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00
Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40
Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00
Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25
Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15
Units invested: 100
Units Returned: 40
Predictions %: 1/5 - 20%
Semi-Final 2
Armenia NQ: 20 units @2.50
Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60
Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61
Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97
Units invested: 140
Units Returned: 89.4
Predictions %: 2/4 - 50%
Final
Winner W/O Netherlands: Switzerland - 189.4 units @ 3.25
Top-4 Italy: 50 units @ 3.50
Top-4 Switzerland: 100 units @ 1.83
Top-10 Belarus: 20 units @ 12.00
Top Nordic Country: Norway 10 units @ 6.50*
To Finish Last: Denmark 10 units @ 51.00
To Finish Last: Czechia 10 units @ 67.00
* Sweden finished higher but because of the Belarussian Jury chaos, Norway was ranked 5th for a few days and betting companies have already settled the bets
Units invested: 389.4
Units Returned: 423
Predictions %: 3/7 - 42.9%
2019 Total Units Invested: 629.4
Units Returned: 552.4
Predictions %: 6/16 - 37.5%
ROI: -12.23%
Last year, my book consisted of 1000 units, 200 for each Semi-Final and 600 for the Final. The returned units could be used again in Semi-Final 2 and the Final.
My book looked like this:
Semi-Final 1
Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units
Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units
Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 3.68 - 20 units
Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units
Units invested: 200
Units Returned: 264.6
Predictions %: 2/4 - 50%
Semi-Final 2
Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units
Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units
Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units
Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units
Units invested: 200
Units Returned: 0
Predictions %: 0/4 - 0%
Final
Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units
Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units
Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units
Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units
Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units
Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units
Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units
Units invested: 791
Units Returned: 1079.5
Predictions %: 3/7 - 42.9%
2021 Total Units Invested: 1191
Units Returned: 1344.1
Predictions %: 5/15 - 33.3%
ROI: 12.85%
The accumulated totals for the two years are the following
Semi Finals
Total Units Invested: 540
Units Returned: 394
Predictions %: 5/17 - 29.4%
ROI: -27.04%
Finals
Total Units Invested: 1180.4
Units Returned: 1502.5
Predictions %: 6/14 - 42.9 %
ROI: 27.29%
Totals
Total Units Invested: 1720.4
Units Returned: 1896.5
Predictions %: 11/31 - 35.5 %
ROI: 10.24%
The elephant in the room...
It is obvious that my Semi-Final tips are suffering, and the main reason is the long shots that I am after. The market and the punters have evolved. There are still opportunities out there but apart from a few coin tosses, it is rare to find odds over 2.50 for a qualification or non-qualification the day of the Semi-Finals.
The value lies in the rehearsals where punters and market are still trying to figure out the dynamics of the songs and staging
On the other hand, one extra winning bet (Albania '19, Denmark '21 the closest calls) would be enough to break even predicting just 6/17 tips correctly.
The Finals are proving to be more successful securing a 27.3% ROI. I can still see room for improvement though. I have two similar lost bets in consecutive years, which have cost me 289.4 units (2019: Winner W/O Netherlands - Switzerland, 2021: Televote Winner Ukraine).
Both were overreactions to the momentum that these two countries were gaining because of the charts and the views the day before the Final.
The silver lining again, is that one more bet (i.e. Ukraine Top-4, lost for 14 points) would have increased ROI from 10.2% to 21.3%.
I must note that the suggested odds in my tips are always for betting companies and not for the exchange market, knowing that the latter is not available everywhere. That means that those of you who bet in the exchange could get better odds and returns.
What happens next? My strategy for 2022
It is time to implement some changes to improve my winning percentage and my ROI. It is difficult to align 100% my personal book, which is open for more than two months with the tips that I give the days of the Semi-Finals and Final.
My book is healthier, and I want that to be reflected on my tips as well.
I have decided to keep the same number of units for my book as last year and that is 1000. However, I have decided to reduce the units available for each Semi-Final from 200 each to 100.
That means that the available units for the Final will be 800.
I will still re-invest units won from Semi-Finals if needed to Semi-Final 2 and Final.
I will try to reduce my tips from 15/16 to 10/12 for the whole season.
Finally, I will introduce the Early Bird tips. That means tipping something before or during the rehearsals for a fraction of my final investment (could be 25 units for Semi-Finals, 50-100 units for the Final).
To do that, I will create a post with my book, open and updated throughout the season. Every time that a tip is added I will be tweeting it so make sure you follow me on Twitter for the latest updates.
There are only a few days left for the National Finals season to finish. My posts will be more frequent from now on, starting next week with a first look to the Winner's market.
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