Romania was heading for a car crash and Televoting did not save them.
Croatia was the biggest surprise, thought it failed to lift off even though it started the SF being ahead of Israel and Azerbaijan.
Regarding Israel, that was the Jury save of the Semi and Azerbaijan must have sailed with Televoting.
But we are here to check the second Semi Final so let's move on.
The qualifying odds suggest that we have nine certain qualifiers, a 50/50 entry, two outsiders and five hopeless entries. Will be it be that easy? I beg to differ...
1. Iceland (+1)
Juries: 2
Televoting: 1
Estimated Points: 260-305
The contest has already finished for Dadi and Gagnamanid before it has even started. A positive covid test and the dream is over. Will that affect their chances? Probably on Saturday, but I do expect some sympathy votes going their way.
Winning the SF @.5.50-6.00 has some value if you favour the sympathy vote scenario.
2. Switzerland (-1)
Juries: 1
Televoting: 3
Estimated Points: 245-275
Tough week for Switzerland that came back on track after the Jury show. They are back in Top-4 and Gjon's can definitely with the Jury in this SF. He needs it for a good running order in the Final.
Price too short for the SF Win or Top-3
3. Greece (+3)
Juries: 4
Televoting: 4
Estimated Points: 190-220
Stefania is carrying this song and she has lots of charisma. Not sure if it can make it to the Top-10 in the Final but is sailing there.
4. San Marino (+1)
Juries: 8
Televoting: 2
Estimated Points: 180-210
FloRida is in RotterDam and Adrenalina is high! This is a certain qualifier and a Top-3 finishing in the SF could be within reach. Currently is @ 3.85 and it has some value.
5. Bulgaria (-2)
Juries: 3
Televoting: 7
Estimated Points: 160-190
The biggest enigma of this SF. Beautiful staging and vocals from Victoria, it is failing on metrics so far. Qualifying won't be a concern and it remains to be seen if this one will be along the contenders, or it will start drifting as of tonight.
6. Finland (-2)
Juries: 7
Televoting: 5
Estimated Points: 155-175
Great running order, has its crowd and is safe as well. There is no value in any of the available bets though.
7. Serbia (+2)
Juries: 9
Televoting: 6
Estimated Points: 120-145
Looking now at the Q price of this one (1.70) just before the rehearsals started and the current one (1.26) and you can see the value that was hidden there. NQ now would be a shock.
8. Portugal (+3)
Juries: 6
Televoting: 12
Estimated Points: 105-125
The biggest improvement of this SF. Great staging, jury friendly and it looks like it's sailing to the Final.
For those of you who find the song very boring or dated, not to qualify is @ 4.50 and given Portugal's record there is some value there. Just two ago Sweden's NQ was @4 and Sweden had 10/11 Qs when Portugal has 4/13...
9. Austria (-1)
Juries: 5
Televoting: 13
Estimated Points: 105-125
Portugal has taken some of its jury glory, but Austria has a nice simple staging and just before the amateurish Polish entry and Moldova's madness it stands a chance. There is only one case of a country that failed to qualify to the Final, being Top-5 with Juries (Malta) and that makes Austria's odds look attractive.
This one was already tipped @ 2.30 before rehearsals started.
10. Denmark (+3)
Juries: 11
Televoting: 8
Estimated Points: 100-125
Most people have this one written off but...Having the Pimp slot entry @2.50-3.00 is value in the long term.
Is it amateurish? Yes!
Is it a bit cheesy? Yes!
But they are having fun on the stage, and they manage to create that 80's-euro pop vibe. This is the year that people need happiness and Denmark has the package.
11. Albania (+3)
Juries: 10
Televoting: 11
Estimated Points: 85-105
Odds suggest that Albania will be among the 10 qualifiers. This is a borderline for me, and I do have a theory for it. Gjon's that represents Switzerland is of Albanian origin and I do have a suspicion that the Albanian diaspora will vote for him. Anxhela was born in Albania but comes from the Greek minority there.
I'm not trying to create a diplomatic incident or anything, but Gjon's is considered the unofficial Albanian representative.
Not touching this one, but in my opinion, there is some value in NQ.
12. Moldova (-5)
Juries: 13
Televoting: 10
Estimated Points: 75-95
If the producer was any other person in the world, Moldova would be a certain non-qualifier, but we are talking about Kirkorov, and he has the power to move things. They tried to play it safe for the Juries where Natalia failed to deliver and there is not much going on for the viewers.
Currently Q is @2.00-2.25. I might reconsider and place a bet on this one tonight during the SF.
13. Czechia (-3)
Juries: 14
Televoting: 9
Estimated Points: 75-95
I had high hopes for this one, but Benny didn't seem to bother much. I still believe that it will be Top-10 with Televoters but Juries must have buried it.
There is a huge discrepancy between exchange market and bookies for its Q odds (5.60 vs 3.75). Will be watching the public reactions in social media for this and maybe place a live bet (I strongly recommend checking tellystats, a social media tracker that provides particularly useful information during the live shows)
14. Estonia (-2)
Juries: 12
Televoting: 15
Estimated Points: 50-75
And we are now entering officially to no man's land. The running order of this one has been the decisive factor. Had it been in the second half or slightly later, it would have a chance. Coming after San Marino does not help at all.
There is no value in the NQ odds.
15. Latvia (-)
Juries: 16
Televoting: 14
Estimated Points: 35-55
Samanta is living her dream and is on stage. She kept to herself and went all the way. Can that translate to a qualification? I'm afraid that no.
Last place in SF is @ 3.70 but she has her fans, and she can get some televoting love.
16. Georgia (-)
Juries: 15
Televoting: 17
Estimated Points: 35-55
This song deserves better, but Eurovision is not the correct platform for Tornike and his style. He came to do his thing which is admirable, but he does not connect with the audience or the juries.
Finishing last @ 2.50 is too short for me.
17. Poland (-)
Juries: 17
Televoting: 16
Estimated Points: 25-45
There is a song every few years that I can't wait to see during the SF just to make sure that this is the last time I will be listening to it ever. This is the one for 2021!
Last place is @ 2.40 currently but there is no value either just in case a part of Polish diaspora decides to vote for it.
Betting Time
I will start with what happened in SF1.
These were my bets
Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost
Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won
Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 ( 3.68) - 20 units - Open
Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open
Units played: 200
Units returned: 191
Open Units: 25
These 191 units will be added to the 600 units for the Final as there is no reason to add them to my bets today.
For SF2 I have already tipped
Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units
Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units
Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units
Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units
New Total: 0
Open Units: 200
Good luck with your bets tonight!
Stay tuned in Twitter for any live bets
No comments:
Post a Comment