Since 2013 that the producers are deciding for the running order, with the countries just drawing for the first or second half, there are a few tells hidden there that might tip us about the chances of a song.
I have studied the 2014-2019 running orders (applying the 50/50 system in 2014 and 2015) and these are my findings. Grab your popcorn and have fun!
The Semi Final Winners
So far, we had 12 SFs and the split is 6 in the first half and 6 in the second.
The earliest slot that a winner had is 7 (Norway 2018) and managed to finish 15th, by far the worst performance. To be fair with the producers, Norway has been the weakest of all SF winners along with Australia 2019.
The other slots of the first half:
10: Sweden 2015 - Winner
11: Austria 2014 - Winner
Portugal 2017 - Winner
12: Netherlands 2019 - Winner
13: Australia 2016 - 2nd
First half is not that bad with 4/6 winners performing there.
There is a concern though regarding their Televoting performance. Sweden and Netherlands finished third and Australia finished fourth.
Austria and Portugal finished first both with Juries and Televoting.
Things looking better with Juries for Sweden and Australia, both winning with a huge margin.
Netherlands is the only winner of the first half that hasn't won Juries or Televoting.
And now moving to the second half.
The earliest draw for a winner is slot 18 (Russia 2016) that finished third, even though they won Televoting.
The rest of the slots
22: Israel 2018 - Winner
24: Netherlands 2014 - 2nd
25: Russia 2015 - 2nd
Bulgaria 2017 - 2nd
Australia 2019 - 9th
So, with great certainty we can assume that if a song from SF2 is placed in slot 25 must have won the SF.
The other observation is that we only have 1/6 Winners worse record than the first half.
The other interesting finding is that apart from Russia only Israel won the Televoting
Semi Finals Runner Ups
Things are getting trickier for the second places, where we have a bigger diaspora of slots. In the first half we have
3: Israel 2015 - 9th
Czechia 2019 - 11th
6: Romania 2014 - 10th
7: Moldova 2017 - 3rd
8: Hungary 2017 - 8th
North Macedonia 2019 - 7th
13: Belgium 2015 - 4th
Israel in 3 didn't make a sense, but the first six they were placed in 3,6,7 and 8 had something in common. They were very vulnerable in one of the two constituencies (Js for Isr, Rom, Mol and Hun - TV for Cze and N.Mac).
Belgium that was solid in both got a well-deserved 13.
And now let's have a look at the second half
20: Sweden 2018 - 7th
21: Hungary 2014 - 5th
Ukraine 2016 - Winner
25: Cyprus 2018 - 2nd
26: Armenia 2016 - 7th
Things look better here, with the only Winner (Ukraine 2016) so far that has not won its SF.
The overwhelming fact about the runner ups is that apart from Ukraine 2016 that improved its finishing and from Cyprus 2018 that maintained the same place in the Final, the other 10 finished lower.
It does make sense in a broader field of course, but it impressive that only three made it to the Top-3 and only five made it to the Top-5!
Podium Rankings by slot
The Winners are concentrated in five slots
10: Sweden 2015
11: Austria 2014
Portugal 2017
12: Netherlands 2019
21: Ukraine 2016
22: Israel 2018
The Runner Ups are also scattered in five slots
13: Australia 2016
22: Italy 2019
24: Netherlands 2014
25: Bulgaria 2017
Cyprus 2018
27: Italy 2015* (finished 3rd but would be 2nd with the 50/50 voting system)
2018 is the only year that the Winner and Runner Up perform in the same half...
Let's have a look at the Third places as well.
5: Austria 2018
Russia 2019
7: Moldova 2017
13: Sweden 2014
18: Russia 2016
25: Russia 2015* (finished 2nd but would be 3rd with the 50/50 voting system)
There is only one Pimp Slot Podium Finish (Italy 2015).
The ideal slots are 11-13, 21-22 and 24-25, but we haven't had a Winner after 22.
Netherlands' draw in 23 looks a bit more suspicious now, having only Belgium 2017 finishing 4th...and the rest of the entries used as fillers.
Average Rankings by Slot and other Facts
1.
Average Ranking: 15
Average Jury Ranking: 15
Average Televoting Ranking: 15.7
Best Ranking: Ukraine 2014 - 7th
Worst Ranking: Israel 2017 - 23rd
Interesting Facts: No entry has finished higher than 7th in Total (Ukraine 2014) - 6th with Juries (Belgium 2016) and 7th with Televoting (Ukraine 2018)
2.
Average Ranking: 21.7
Average Jury Ranking: 19.2
Average Televoting Ranking: 19.3
Best Ranking: Belarus 2014 - Albania 2019 -17th
Worst Ranking: France 2015 - 26
Interesting Facts: The death slot! By far the worst slot in the Final.
3/4 of the SF qualifiers that appeared in that slot were saved either by Juries or Televoting.
No entry has cracked the Top-10 with Juries or Televoting...
3.
Average Ranking: 14
Average Jury Ranking: 11.7
Average Televoting Ranking: 17.2
Best Ranking: Israel 2015 - 9th
Worst Ranking: Slovenia 2018 - 22nd
Interesting Facts: 3 entries finished Top-10 with Juries, 1 with Televoting
4.
Average Ranking: 16
Average Jury Ranking: 14.7
Average Televoting Ranking: 15.5
Best Ranking: Estonia 2015 - 8th
Worst Ranking: Germany 2019 - 25th
Interesting Facts: 2/5 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.
5.
Average Ranking: 13.7
Average Jury Ranking: 12.3
Average Televoting Ranking: 15
Best Ranking: Austria 2018, Russia 2019 - 3rd
Worst Ranking: UK 2015 - 27th (last)
Interesting Facts: Both Austria and Russia finished lower in their respective SFs (4th and 6th) hence the early draw.
6.
Average Ranking: 11.8
Average Jury Ranking: 12.3
Average Televoting Ranking: 13.5
Best Ranking: Estonia 2018 - 8th
Worst Ranking: Italy 2016 - 16th
Interesting Facts: 2/5 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.
7.
Average Ranking: 12
Average Jury Ranking: 12.7
Average Televoting Ranking: 11
Best Ranking: Moldova 2017 - 3rd
Worst Ranking: San Maarino 2019 - 19th
Interesting Facts: The first slot with 2 Top-5 finishes
8.
Average Ranking: 12.8
Average Jury Ranking: 15.5
Average Televoting Ranking: 12.8
Best Ranking: Bulgaria 2016 - 4th
Worst Ranking: Portugal 2018 - 26th
Interesting Facts: The first slot with 3 Top-10 rankings.
9.
Average Ranking: 9.2
Average Jury Ranking: 11.8
Average Televoting Ranking: 10.5
Best Ranking: Sweden 2016, 2019 - 5th
Worst Ranking: UK 2018, 24th
Interesting Facts: 5/6 Top-10 rankings but no podium finish
10.
Average Ranking: 16.8
Average Jury Ranking: 15.8
Average Televoting Ranking: 12.8
Best Ranking: Sweden 2015, Winner
Worst Ranking: Germany 2016 - 26th (last)
Interesting Facts: The second best ranking after Sweden's win is 15th...
11.
Average Ranking: 7.2
Average Jury Ranking: 4.8
Average Televoting Ranking: 10
Best Ranking: Austria 2014, Portugal 2017 - Winners
Worst Ranking: Cyprus 2015 - 18th
Interesting Facts: The best average rankings for Total and Juries
12.
Average Ranking: 9.7
Average Jury Ranking: 10.8
Average Televoting Ranking: 10
Best Ranking: Netherlands 2019 - Winner
Worst Ranking: Germany 2014 - 19th
Interesting Facts: Second best result Australia 2015 - 5th
13.
Average Ranking: 9.3
Average Jury Ranking: 8.7
Average Televoting Ranking: 9.7
Best Ranking: Australia 2016 - 2nd
Worst Ranking: Greece 2019 - 21st
Interesting Facts: The last Top-10 result is Australia 2016 - 2nd
14.
Average Ranking: 18
Average Jury Ranking: 17.3
Average Televoting Ranking: 19.3
Best Ranking: Czechia 2018 - 6th
Worst Ranking: France 2014 - 26th (last)
Interesting Facts: 4/6 Bottom-5 rankings
15.
Average Ranking: 13
Average Jury Ranking: 18.3
Average Televoting Ranking: 10
Best Ranking: Russia 2014, Norway 2019 - 6th
Worst Ranking: Greece 2015 - 20th
Interesting Facts: 3/6 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.
16.
Average Ranking: 20
Average Jury Ranking: 17.8
Average Televoting Ranking: 20.2
Best Ranking: Lithuania 2016 - 9th
Worst Ranking: Spain 2017, UK 2019 - 26th (last)
Interesting Facts: 2 lasts places and one Bottom-5
17.
Average Ranking: 19.7
Average Jury Ranking: 18.5
Average Televoting Ranking: 18.7
Best Ranking: Norway 2017, Iceland 2019 - 10th
Worst Ranking: Slovenia 2014, Germany 2015, Finland 2018 - 25th
Interesting Facts: 4/6 Bottom-5
18.
Average Ranking: 13.8
Average Jury Ranking: 13
Average Televoting Ranking: 13
Best Ranking: Russia 2016 - 3rd
Worst Ranking: Poland 2015 - 22nd
Interesting Facts: The first Podium ranking of the 2nd half
19.
Average Ranking: 16.3
Average Jury Ranking: 13.5
Average Televoting Ranking: 15
Best Ranking: Latvia 2015 - 6th
Worst Ranking: Belarus 2019 - 24th
Interesting Facts: Only 2/6 Top-10s
20.
Average Ranking: 10.2
Average Jury Ranking: 13.3
Average Televoting Ranking: 11.3
Best Ranking: Romania 2017, Sweden 2018 - 7th
Worst Ranking: Latvia 2016 - 15th
Interesting Facts: Middle of the road slot with all rankings between 7th-15th
21.
Average Ranking: 15.3
Average Jury Ranking: 15.2
Average Televoting Ranking: 14.8
Best Ranking: Ukraine 2016 - Winner
Worst Ranking: Germany 2017 - 25th
Interesting Facts: 2 Top-5 and 3 Bottom-5 entries
22.
Average Ranking: 12.2
Average Jury Ranking: 9.7
Average Televoting Ranking: 14.7
Best Ranking: Israel 2018 - Winner
Worst Ranking: Ukraine 2017 - 24th
Interesting Facts: The first slot in second half with 2 podium finishings
23.
Average Ranking: 14.3
Average Jury Ranking: 12.5
Average Televoting Ranking: 14.2
Best Ranking: Belgium 2017 - 4th
Worst Ranking: Georgia 2016 - 20th
Interesting Facts: Only 2 Top-10s
24.
Average Ranking: 9.2
Average Jury Ranking: 10.8
Average Televoting Ranking: 8.8
Best Ranking: Netherlands 2014 - 2nd
Worst Ranking: Ireland 2018 - 16th
Interesting Facts: The slot with the best Televoting average
25.
Average Ranking: 10.7
Average Jury Ranking: 9.7
Average Televoting Ranking: 10.2
Best Ranking: Bulgaria 2017, Cyprus 2018 - 2nd
Worst Ranking: San Marino 2014, UK 2016 - 24th
Interesting Facts: 3 Podium rankings. The only slot
26.
Average Ranking: 13.3
Average Jury Ranking: 19.5
Average Televoting Ranking: 10.8
Best Ranking: Italy 2018 - 5th
Worst Ranking: UK 2014, Spain 2019 - 22nd
Interesting Facts: The slot with the biggest discrepancy between Juries and Televoting
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