Eurovision 2026 Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings
The calm before the staging storm.
Eurovision season has finally reached the point where theory meets reality.
With rehearsals starting today, we are officially entering the phase where carefully built narratives collide with camera angles, LED choices, vocal consistency and three minutes of live television.
Up to this point, the market has been relatively stable. But Eurojury added an extra layer of anchoring to the leading pack, giving us a stronger data point before the first rehearsal clips start reshaping the race.
And if Eurovision history has taught us anything, it is this: pre-rehearsal rankings often look hilarious two weeks later.
That is not a flaw in the process — that is the process.
Staging creates momentum. Momentum creates narratives. Narratives create points.
So here is my current projection before rehearsals begin.
Grab your popcorn.
The four countries with a realistic winning path
1. Greece
Juries: 5th — 160–180
Televote: 1st — 230–270
Projected total: 390–450
Why it can win
- Eurojury confirmed that Greece is not simply a televote magnet. There is genuine jury accessibility here.
- Greece has access to a very broad pool of high scores from both juries and televoters.
- In a very static pre-rehearsal season, Greece is one of the few entries that feels like it is building momentum rather than merely holding position.
Why it might not
- The staging could fail to elevate the song.
- The Balkan/Eastern vote may fragment across Moldova, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania and Albania.
- A runaway jury winner could cap its ceiling.
Data angle
My model had Greece above 175 jury points even before Eurojury began.
If jury points are diluted again this year, a jury top-three finish is entirely realistic. And if Greece clears the staging hurdle, it has the highest raw ceiling in the field.
Bottom line: Greece is currently the entry to beat.
(And yes — I’m Greek, so full disclosure applies.)
2. France
Juries: 2nd — 190–225
Televote: 4th — 150–175
Projected total: 340–400
Why it can win
- France is not only selling a song this year — it is selling Monroe.
- If the staging finds the sweet spot between intimacy and polish, France could hit the same cross-constituency zone that helped recent French contenders perform strongly.
- The usual elite jury roadblocks are less dominant in this year’s field.
Why it might not
- France has a long history of overthinking staging.
- The song itself may not feel sufficiently distinctive.
- There may be a degree of “opera fatigue” in the market.
Data angle
France has quietly been one of the most statistically resilient countries of the 50/50 era.
It has repeatedly:
- finished in the jury top three
- finished in the televote top four
- collected points from a very broad geographic spread
That matters.
The fan bubble may have cooled on France too quickly.
If rehearsals land, France is absolutely live.
3. Finland
Juries: 3rd — 170–200
Televote: 3rd — 160–190
Projected total: 330–390
Why it can win
- Finland is the cleanest compromise candidate between juries and televoters.
- It leads the pre-rehearsal market and fan polls.
- It already looks like a finished, high-impact package.
Why it might not
- Pre-rehearsal favourites often underperform once the live contest begins.
- It did not dominate Eurojury.
- There are structural televote constraints in its regional scoring environment.
Data angle
The core question is not whether Finland can score well.
The question is whether it has enough of a “call to action” to become a winner rather than merely a very strong top-three finisher.
At the moment, I still think Finland’s clearest route runs through the juries.
And that is not guaranteed.
4. Australia
Juries: 1st — 200–230
Televote: 7th — 100–125
Projected total: 300–355
Why it can win
- Australia has the strongest jury-winning profile in the field.
- It is one of the few jury-friendly entries in English.
- If the public connects enough, the maths become very interesting.
Why it might not
- The song may read as slightly dated.
- Australia historically tends to struggle more with televoters than with juries.
Data angle
Australia’s winning path is very simple:
It probably needs something close to a jury landslide.
If it gets near 300 jury points, the contest opens dramatically.
Without that, the televote deficit may simply be too large.
My current pre-rehearsal model
These are the four entries that I believe currently have a realistic winning path.
There are also strong podium-threat profiles — especially Israel, Denmark and Ukraine — but for now I still see them as needing more things to break perfectly.
Full Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings
| Rank | Country | Total | Juries | Televote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece | 390–450 | 160–180 | 230–270 |
| 2 | France | 340–400 | 190–225 | 150–175 |
| 3 | Finland | 330–390 | 170–200 | 160–190 |
| 4 | Australia | 300–355 | 200–230 | 100–125 |
| 5 | Israel | 250–300 | 50–70 | 200–230 |
| 6 | Denmark | 235–285 | 170–200 | 65–85 |
| 7 | Ukraine | 185–230 | 60–80 | 125–150 |
| 8 | Moldova | 170–220 | 40–60 | 130–160 |
| 9 | Italy | 160–200 | 70–90 | 90–110 |
| 10 | Malta | 130–175 | 120–150 | 10–25 |
| 11 | Cyprus | 130–170 | 50–70 | 80–100 |
| 12 | Albania | 125–170 | 65–85 | 60–85 |
| 13 | Romania | 100–145 | 40–60 | 60–85 |
| 14 | Switzerland | 85–125 | 80–110 | 5–15 |
| 15 | Norway | 80–120 | 50–70 | 30–50 |
| 16 | Sweden | 80–120 | 50–70 | 30–50 |
| 17 | Bulgaria | 75–110 | 35–50 | 40–60 |
| 18 | Lithuania | 45–65 | 25–35 | 20–30 |
| 19 | United Kingdom | 30–60 | 15–35 | 15–25 |
| 20 | Serbia | 35–55 | 15–25 | 20–30 |
| 21 | Estonia | 30–50 | 20–30 | 10–20 |
| 22 | Portugal | 30–50 | 20–30 | 10–20 |
| 23 | Montenegro | 25–45 | 10–20 | 15–25 |
| 24 | Germany | 10–30 | 5–15 | 5–15 |
| 25 | Austria | 0–20 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
Betting positions
This year I took a slightly different approach.
I entered early positions on:
- Greece
- France
- Australia
Part of those positions were taken even before the songs were released.
At current prices:
- Greece returns roughly 500% ROI (total investment)
- France returns roughly 300% ROI (total investment)
- Australia returns roughly 300% ROI (total investment)
Other open positions:
- Moldova Top 10
- Denmark Top 5 lay
- Sweden Top 10–15 lay
I have intentionally kept around 70% of my bankroll uncommitted, with the aim of deploying roughly half of that during Eurovision week, when rehearsals usually create the biggest inefficiencies.
Final thought
This is the last ranking built mostly on song strength, structural voting pathways and pre-rehearsal data.
From today onward, Eurovision becomes a live-market sport.
A clever camera cut can add 40 points.
A weak first rehearsal can erase 80.
And that is exactly why this part of the season is so much fun.
Let’s see who survives contact with the stage.
Don't miss the Talk About ESC Things podcast episodes with our Pre-rehearsals prediction about the Jury Top-10 with Ben Robertson from ESCInsight as a special guest and the Televote Top-10 episode with Rob Furber from entertainmentodds.
