Disclaimer 1: Finland will win Eurovision Song Contest.
Disclaimer 2: I have no bets on Finland.
Disclaimer 3: Nobody knows who will win Eurovision Song Contest yet...
This is my seventh year covering Eurovision on EurovisionBetsandpieces, and if you have followed this blog for a while, you already know one thing: backing the pre-rehearsal favourite has never really been my style.
Not because favourites cannot win.
Because they are very often too short.
This is my 20th Eurovision betting season, and if there is one lesson the market keeps teaching, it is that Eurovision is far less predictable than the odds often suggest.
That is why, ever since Finland took over the market early and never looked back, I have approached this pre-rehearsal period as if Finland has already won Eurovision 2026.
And still, I have not backed them.
Why I am not backing Finland
The answer is simple: price.
At around 2.20 on the exchanges, Finland is trading at roughly a 45% chance of winning.
For me, that is not value.
Yes, Finland has a strong package.
The song stands out. The performance lands. The duo are charismatic. The fanbase is fully engaged. The polls reflect genuine quality.
But none of that automatically makes 2.20 a fair number.
And before going any further:
I have nothing against Finland, any other country, or any artist.
This is a contest. Only one country wins.
Eurovision history says caution
Since juries returned in 2009, we have seen plenty of favourites trade at similar prices — and lose.
A few examples:
- France '11 — finished 15th
- Armenia '14— traded above 50%, finished 4th
- Russia '16— traded above 60%, finished 3rd
- Italy '17 — traded above 40%, finished 6th
- Croatia '24— traded above 50%, finished 2nd
- Sweden '25— traded around 50%, finished 4th
Yes, some favourites converted.
But the bigger picture matters more.
Since 2009, the pre-rehearsal favourite has only won 8 of the last 16 contests.
That is not dominance.
That is basically a coin flip.
The jury path looks narrower than the market suggests
I think Finland probably needs a jury top three minimum to win this contest.
More realistically, they probably need 200+ jury points, maybe closer to 225, to create real separation.
That is where I start getting cautious.
Recent voting patterns show that every year there are multiple juries that simply do not reward the main contenders heavily enough.
A meaningful bloc of countries consistently gives limited support — or none at all — to the eventual jury frontrunners.
That matters.
Because a 40%+ favourite should not have this many question marks.
And Finland does.
A song in Finnish may not be a huge problem.
But it only needs to be a small enough barrier with enough jurors to make the difference.
I can easily see blanks or weak jury returns from some key rivals’ natural voting areas.
That does not kill Finland’s chances.
It simply makes 2.20 look very tight.
Regional support is not automatic
This is another important point.
Finland does not come into this contest with automatic jury 12s waiting for them.
Over the last decade, Finland has received just three jury 12s in total.
Now add direct competition from:
- Sweden
- Denmark
- Australia
That makes the regional picture much less straightforward than the market may be assuming.
For a favourite priced at 40%+, uncertainty matters.
And there is plenty of it.
The televote is not a free runway either
Finland should do well with the public.
The real question is whether they do well enough.
Israel remains a major obstacle here.
Over the last two years, Israel has dominated a large chunk of the televote 12s across Western Europe and beyond.
Then there is the likely Eastern support for Ukraine, diaspora voting, and the usual regional exchanges.
So the question becomes very simple:
Where exactly does Finland find enough big scores to lock down a top-three televote?
That answer is far from obvious.
Staging can still change everything
Right now, Finland arguably has the strongest package on paper.
But rehearsals are where markets get tested.
What happens if:
- France delivers a standout visual moment?
- Australia reveals something bigger than expected?
- Greece finds a genuine live breakthrough?
At that point, margins become much thinner.
And short prices become much harder to justify.
My position
To be clear: Finland can absolutely win Eurovision next Saturday.
But I am betting price, not narrative.
And at current odds, Finland does not offer value.
This year I have deliberately reduced stress and kept my outright exposure smaller than usual.
My winner market position is currently split across:
- Greece
- France
- Australia
That is roughly 25% of my total bankroll.
The objective is straightforward:
be profitable this season, even if I lose every outright winner ticket.
In Eurovision betting, there is often more value in chasing top 4, top 5, and top 10 markets than trying to force an outright position at a bad number.
Bottom line
This week is not about hedging.
It is about finding opportunities.
That is where profitable Eurovision weeks are built.
I have still used less than half of my bankroll, and I am happy to stay patient before placing my final bets.
My Semi-Final predictions will be up on Tuesday.
The real game starts now.
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